Miami Dolphins 2020 Offseason Breakdown

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Miami Dolphins 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Ah, Miami. The Magic City of the Sunshine State. In any normal turn of the decade, the impending NFL season would offer hope and prosperity for second-year Head Coach Brian Flores and projected franchise quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Unfortunately for Dolphins fans, the country is more focused on COVID-19 taking its talents to South Beach than how soon Tua gets the start.

In an uncertain season, it’s more difficult to project success for the new faces in Miami, but with some continuity from 2019 present and a highly concentrated offense, there’s certainly upside to consider.

Offense: An Overview

Building off the expectations Flores and co. beat last season, the Dolphins sought out the retired Chan Gailey to be their new Offensive Coordinator for 2020, and Gailey responded, “You son of a bitch, I’m in.” Gailey’s experience brings some promise to Miami for real football purposes, but no one in the fantasy community is talking about how Chan Gailey can be a spark plug for the Dolphins’ offense; if anything, they’ve only talked about how he won’t completely sink them.

Aside from coaching, the Dolphins made multiple roster upgrades through free agency, trades, and the draft. They signed former Bears and Eagles running back Jordan Howard to a two-year deal. They drafted the quarterback prospect they were always seemingly targeting, Tua Tagovailoa, at #5 overall in the draft, and bolstered their line by grabbing tackle Austin Jackson at #18 overall. While the rest of their draft picks were invested in defense, the Dolphins made a move to add depth and big-play ability to their running back room, trading a fifth-round draft pick to the San Francisco 49ers for Matt Breida.

Things look a lot different for Miami than they did 12 months ago, but how does this bode for fantasy purposes?

Quarterback

Ryan Fitzpatrick + Tua Tagovailoa

In Weeks 5-15, when the Dolphins passing game found its groove and Ryan Fitzpatrick was throwing a minimum 33 attempts per game, the bearded dynamo’s 16-game pace was 628 attempts, 4,500 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. The additions of Jordan Howard and Matt Breida to the running back room should help the Dolphins be less pass-heavy in 2020, but everyone knows the FitzMagic brand of upside is ever present. Before Joe Burrow’s breakout and Tua’s hip injury, the Dolphins’ #5 pick was the consensus #1 pick in the draft. There’s massive upside expected from the incoming rookie as well.

Miami Dolphins
FitzMagic could be a smash value at his ADP and is a great late-round grab in best ball drafts, especially if you can pair him with Tua.

The interesting piece to follow is when the change at starting quarterback is made during the season (if at all), and how Tua taking over the offense will impact the offense one way or the other. This could end up like a 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers situation, where Fitzpatrick and Tua combine for a QB7 fantasy performance on the season. The problem is you’re only likely to roster both players in best ball or deep dynasty formats. In redraft, in-season research and playing the waiver wire is the way to go.

Running Back

Jordan Howard

Unfortunately for Jordan Howard, the new first and second down running back option for the Dolphins is one of the least exciting aspects of their 2020 offense. While he did rush for over 1,000 yards in back to back seasons upon entering the NFL, his game logs from last year with the vaunted Eagles offensive line show 0 performances of 100+ yards rushing.
Howard is a lock for 10-15 carries per game in Miami, with a chance as their goal line back to fall into the end zone every week. I only see Howard as a viable asset to your redraft quad when running a Zero RB draft strategy.

Matt Breida

Howard might be the coal-powered engine for the Dolphins’ run game early in the 2020 season, but Matt Breida has the talent to be the electric generator that makes Howard obsolete. We’ve seen Breida take over games with both limited and heavy workloads. Based on his current claim to fastest player in the NFL, the talent is clearly there for him to earn opportunity both on the ground and through the air.

Breida has had some injury history in the past and has been part of a crowded backfield for the first chapter of his career in San Francisco; he’s never seen more than 155 carries or 40 targets in a season. If Breida can remain healthy, he should see a significant uptick in opportunity. This makes him a value in the 8th round of PPR drafts (as of this writing.)

If you need further evidence of Breida’s talent, check out the nasty cuts he put on the Bengals defense below:

Note: I haven’t mentioned either of Kalen Ballage or Patrick Laird because both players (along with Dolphins GM Chris Grier) proved to us that neither of them are relevant for fantasy purposes as of this writing.

Wide Receiver

With news of both Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opting out for the 2020 season, the Dolphins’ pass-catching options become extremely limited. On the plus-side, this means the volume of opportunity available for the marquee pieces of this offense will be maxed out, resulting in a greater chance for each player to reach their ceiling.

DeVante Parker

Parker was phenomenal in the second half of 2019. From Weeks 10-17 when Preston Williams was no longer on the field, Parker was the WR2 in PPR scoring. He finished 2019 (his first season of 16 games played) with a stat line of 72 receptions, 1,202 yards, and 9 touchdowns. This was the first season oh his career where Parker broke thresholds of 60 receptions, 750 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Said another way, his jump in production was HUGE.

Parker’s ADP has been suppressed to the late-6th/early-7th round because of the conditions of his breakout: the Williams injury opened the door for more opportunity, plus it happened in the fifth year of his career. What are the chances he’ll maintain such efficiency? For me, I’m not banking on it being sustainable. But there’s no question Parker’s got talent, and he’s a fine pick at his current ADP to be a high-upside WR3 on your roster.

Preston Williams

While the Dolphins organization is “cautiously optimistic” for Williams to be game-ready by Week 1, our medical expert Adam Hutchison points out that there is risk of re-injury the sooner athletes return to full speed after their 9-month recovery from an ACL tear. The Dolphins are rebuilding for the future and won’t rush Williams if he’s not ready. I’d expect him to miss some games early on in the season, or run a higher risk of missing more games later on. The upside for Williams at his ADP is massive in both redraft and dynasty, but know it will take a modicum of patience for this prospect to blossom.

Isaiah Ford

Ford must be mentioned here because the current Dolphins depth chart has him as the #3 WR on the team, so it’s worth keeping an eye on him. That said, the 2017 seventh-round pick has only played in eight games over the first two seasons on his career, so Gailey might not trust Ford with a meaningful enough workload for fantasy purposes.

Tight End

The Dolphins trading a 7th round pick for former Bears tight end Adam Shaheen is the least interesting move I may have seen all offseason. This section is dedicated to one man and one man only…

Mike Gesicki

Dolphins
Gesicki’s workout metrics jump off the page.

Maybe it’s just the Twitter circles I run in, but the Tyler Higbee fatigue has opened the door for plenty of spirited debate on the Dolphins’ breakout tight end candidate. Gesicki has an amazing athletic profile (below), and there’s reason to believe that, based on his number of routes run and routes run in the slot, he will see a ton of volume in 2020. Albert Wilson’s opt-out bolsters the volume argument further.

That said, I’d be ignorant if I failed to acknowledge the lack of efficiency Gesicki has displayed in his career thus far. One of our lead rankers, @DynoGameTheory, has noted on multiple occasions how Gesicki’s production will be limited based on his historical efficiency. Furthermore, I have a hard time ignoring the research Drew Osinchuk has done on tight end value in dynasty and why Mike Gesicki is a sell in this format.

I still have optimism for Gesicki to improve his efficiency in the third year of his NFL career, but if I’m drafting Gesicki in redraft, I’m likely grabbing a second tight end to improve my chances of hitting on breakout value at the position.

Questions? Comments? Concerns? Hit me up @AndrewMackens on Twitter, and be sure to follow @TheUndroppables for more Fantasy Football content.

New York Giants 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Justin Mandaro
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New York Giants 2020 Offseason Breakdown

From coaching staff to future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, no one was safe in the Giants’ facilities following another tumultuous season. After finishing with a top-six draft pick for the third time in as many years, the Giants cleaned house. Eli Manning officially retired after losing his job to 2019 first round pick Daniel Jones. Several coaches were removed from their duties as well, including Pat Shurmur. With the removal of Shurmur, the Giants’ ownership turned to yet another unproven commodity with the announcement that Joe Judge would be taking over. Judge, a member of both the Nick Saban and Bill Belichick coaching trees, lacks coaching experience at any level. Despite the lack of knowledge, Judge and company went to work quickly revamping the coaching room by bringing in Jason Garrett to head the offense for the G-Men. Although Garrett is known more for his clapping on the sidelines regardless of the situation than he is for putting a winning product on the field, he did lead the Cowboys to eight top-15 finishes in PFF Offensive Ranking and five top-10 finishes.

Offseason Moves

Despite the severe movement for the Giants at the top, it was the players that didn’t see much change. We already discussed the loss of Eli Manning, who hung up his cleats after 16 years in the NFL. However, the Giants didn’t make a ton of significant player moves otherwise. The Giants re-signed three of their unrestricted free agents. They also franchise tagged Leonard Williams, who they traded for mid-way through the 2019 season. In terms of bringing in new players, the Giants focused a good portion of their salary cap on the defensive side of the ball in James Bradberry and Blake Martinez. They also signed former Cowboys back up offensive tackle Cameron Fleming. Although it was a less-than-splashy free agency, the Giants seemed to have hit on the draft again. Selections of Andrew Thomas and Matt Peart in the 1st and 3rd rounds bolster an offensive line unit that was 17th in pass-blocking and 22nd in run-blocking a year ago. They also added Xavier McKinney to their secondary and added a few other defensive pieces that have assumed upside.

All in all, the Giants offseason was exciting for both fans of the organization and fantasy players. Question marks remain as to whether Judge can produce as a head coach in the NFL, but with the injection of youth on both sides of the ball, the Giants could be on the precipice of something great. Let’s take a look at how the individual players stack up for the Giants in 2020.

Quarterback

Daniel Jones

With basically an entire year under his belt, Daniel Jones is in a perfect position to succeed at a high mark in his sophomore season, despite the impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on training camps. With a serviceable offensive line, a top-three running back, and receiver weapons with plenty of upside, Jones has the surrounding talent. Daniel Jones would finished as the 20th-best fantasy QB in 2019 despite only playing 13 games. He ended the season with over 3,000 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just 12 interceptions. If Jones takes the turn in his career and continues to progress on a decent rookie season, the first thing he will need to improve is protecting the ball. In 2019, Jones had 18 fumbles to add to his 12 interceptions. He was sacked 40 times, which certainly didn’t help things either. Jones had the 11th-best completion percentage in the NFL when being hit: 38.9%. He did this taking this seventh-most hits in the league. Jones dealt with many injuries to the weapons around him. Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley all missed significant time. As camp is kicking off, each of these players are expected to be healthy and should give Jones an even more significant boost heading into 2020. In contrast, Jones will have a bit of an uphill battle facing one of the league’s toughest schedules. To kick things off, Jones will face five top-10 defenses (according to PFF’s defensive rating) in their first five games. The second half of the season isn’t any better, with two games against tough divisional matchup Philadelphia, then  improved Buccaneers and Cardinals defenses, plus the Seahawks on the road.

Real Swag is No Swag.

Colt McCoy

There isn’t much to say about Colt McCoy that’s going to get fantasy players excited about the prospect of stashing him. The former Texas Longhorn signal-caller has been more serviceable as a backup than he ever was as a starter early on his career. Over the last four years, McCoy has garnered a 68% completion percentage on 220 throws. Again, that’s not a number that’s going to jump off the page, especially when he only has eight TDs and six INTs during that span. However, it proves the nine-year vet can produce in spurts if called upon. The 2020 Giants would be the most talented team he’s had around him since entering the league. I’m confident in New York skill position players if Colt has to take over the huddle.  

Running Back

Saquon Barkley

Barkley is a generational talent that is on an elite trajectory if he can outlast injuries. With a player that runs as downhill as he does and is certainly not afraid of contact, Barkley is bound to run into some issues. That was evident in 2019 when the second-year player went down during the team’s Week 3 contest against Tampa Bay. Barkley would miss the next three weeks, but would return and needed another six weeks to be himself again. Despite missing the time and taking a bit more to get back to normal, Barkley still finished as RB10. Although this wasn’t the craziest of drop-offs, it again made Barkley owners stuck in the mud. According to this ESPN article, Barkley wasn’t even the top 38 players to be drafted on ESPN fantasy playoff teams. To put some context into that, McCaffery was found on a staggering 78.1% of playoff teams.

Meanwhile, undrafted players like Darren Waller were on more than 60% of playoff teams. During Weeks 14, 15, & 16, Barkley silenced some of the doubters by putting on an absolute clinic. Over that span, Barkley would finish as the RB2 behind only McCaffery. And if not for nearly 30 more receptions by the Stanford stud CMC, Barkley would have surpassed even him. With all that said, Saquon was still the leagues 11th-best receiving running back with 52 receptions. Although his breakaway speed had diminished some due to injury, he even finished 14th with nine runs over 15 yards and finished 7th in yards created per touch. Barkley is now healthy, and thus back to being the RB2 in ADP. With a bolstered offensive line and a new offensive scheme that leans heavily on the run, nothing should stop Barkley from meeting or exceeding his ADP value (other than, of course, another injury).

Running Backs NOT named Saquon

You could put some of these guys into their own category as we have with every other player during our offseason breakdowns. However, Dion Lewis, Wayne Gallman, and Jonathan Hillman are simply here to spell Barkley on occasion. We know Jason Garrett has managed his halfback workloads to focus on a workhorse. From Marion Barber to DeMarco Murray and Zeke, the touches have for the most part been pretty straight forward for a Garrett offense. The only way any of these guys get sustainable touches will be if Barkley goes down. Each of them offers a specific skill set that will give fantasy players hope of some production. If we had to pick one of these guys that could produce, Lewis is a threat in the passing game. Lewis didn’t put up all-worldly numbers up in 2019, but he’s just one year removed from 59 receptions for 400 yards and a score. If the Giants use him the way the Patriots did a couple of years ago (Enter Joe Judge connection), he could get valuable looks in 2020.

Wide Receiver

Golden Tate

Golden Tate missed five weeks in 2019 (suspension Weeks 1-4, concussion Week 13) and came in 2nd on the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns, which gives us plenty of hope heading into 2020. There’s a lot to like about the limited time we saw Tate on the field. For instance, Tate received the 34th-most deep targets in the league at 17. He only caught seven of those passes, four for touchdowns (good for 3rd most.) He was also a significant presence in the red zone, with the 22nd-most receptions inside the 20-yard line. With a playerprofiler.com speed score of only 101.5 (73rd) and burst score of 119.5 burst score (41st), Tate isn’t known for being a burner.

Nonetheless, he showed the ability to stretch the field and be a consistent, reliable piece close to the end zone. Despite the mix of numbers both in the short game and the deep game, the one knock on Tate was his inability to create space on routes run. Tate ranked 102nd in the NFL in target cushion with only 1.09 yards. In 10 NFL seasons, Tate has had at least five touchdowns seven times and gained 1,000+ yards in three of four years from 2014-2017. Tate is healthy, isn’t in jeopardy of a suspension, and has another year to get comfortable with Jones. If he can play 15 games, he should be the leading fantasy scorer of the Giants receivers.

Sterling Shepard

For me, Sterling Shepard is a wild card. As a die hard OU fan, I’ve been watching Shepard tear up defenses for years. 2019 was no different for the former Sooner who, despite only playing ten games last year, was one of the Giants’ best receivers. Like Tate, Shepard produced on a shortened season, catching more passes than any other Giant (57), gaining 576 yards and three touchdowns. Although he’s had a relatively average career so far, he’s been consistent with at least 57 receptions in each of his four years. Shepard has also caught at least three scores three times, with last years 576 yards being the first time with less than 730 yards in a season.

Throughout Shepard’s career, he was always the second read with Odell Beckham Jr. being the go-to guy in the offense. Last year was the first time we expected Shepard to take on a more profound role, and he was on pace before losing significant time due to a concussion. So much so that his career was in jeopardy at times due to the severity of the concussions received. Thankfully for Shepard, that was not the case, and the four-year veteran was able to return to the field and produce at an above-average level. Shepard’s versatility to play both outside and inside at the slot makes him one of the more intriguing players in this offense. Obviously, like Tate, Shepard has a significant opportunity to be the team’s top fantasy scorer. If he can stay healthy and continue to be considered the first read or as the security blanket for Daniel Jones, he should keep the level of consistency that has made him serviceable.

Darius Slayton

Darius Slayton has been in the middle of a significantly large game of twitter tug-O-war. With many touters of Slayton expecting him to be the sleeper in this offense and others significantly lower, there are very few people in the middle. You either love him or hate him. In 2019, Slayton had an excellent opportunity due to severe injuries that left Tate, Shepard, and Evan Engram on the shelf. The Barkley injury forced the Giants to play from behind often and gave Slayton even more opportunity in the passing game.

Slayton had eight touchdowns in 2019, of which six of them were for more than 20 yards on the play. Slayton scored 78.3 PPR fantasy points on those eight receptions and had less than 100 fantasy points on the remaining 40 receptions. Some additional telling stats include his 79.4% route participation (42nd), which proves the Giants felt some type of way even with all of the injuries around him. Slayton’s production almost directly came from his ability to stretch the field, ranking 19th in the league in targets over 20 yards. However, in the red zone, Slayton only received three targets, good for 73rd in the NFL. Slayton’s prospects towards the end of the season began to grow, but quickly diminished as receivers mentioned above returned to the field. With what can only be predicted as too many mouths to feed in an already sub-par offense, Slayton could disappoint heavily in 2020.

Tight End

Evan Engram

To truly grasp the nature of Evan Engram, one must first read our own Adam Hutchinson’s outlook on his injuries. Since 2017, Engram has been injured six times ranging from normal wear and tear of the NFL to deeper, more severe issues. In 2019, two reasonably major injures hit Engram: an MCL Sprain & a Lisfranc injury. According to Adam’s article above, both injuries range from yellow to red on the severity scale, with the Lisfranc being the most significant of the two. There is no doubting the talent that Engram brings to the field. Pair that with the opportunity he’s had with Eli Manning and Daniel Jones early in his career, he is pegged as a consensus top-4 NFL tight end. However, despite the hype, the talent, and the opportunity, Engram has finished inside the top 10 just once (2017).

2019 was very much a roller-coaster season for Engram and those who rostered him in fantasy leagues. Engram was 15th in total fantasy points – according to PFF.com – although he played only eight games last year. He had the 14th most targets, 13th most receptions, and was tied for the 6th most TDs by a tight end last year, all while playing only half the season. In the games that Engram showed up on the field, he nearly dominated. The former Ole Miss tight end had five games with at least six receptions, including 11 in Week 1 vs. Dallas. He had at least 100 yards twice, at least 40 yards seven times, and had five games with at least a 60.0 PFF offensive grade. The hype is real. Engram has the talent to play outside or in the slot as a wideout. He can line up with the hogs in the trenches with a 67.2 PFF pass-blocking rating. There’s no denying his ability when on the field, but can he stay on the field? At his current price tag of 76.8, (according to FFPC ADP) there are plenty of tight ends I’d feel more comfortable with rostering in 2020. 

Kaden Smith

Kaden Smith surprised a lot of people last year picking up where Engram left off. Smith was essentially undrafted in 2019 fantasy drafts, much like he is this year as well. However, when called upon, Smith performed at a pretty decent level. The former Stanford Cardinal secured 31 receptions on 41 targets in 2019, adding 268 yards and three touchdowns. Despite getting fewer opportunities throughout more games than Evan Engram, he ran the 7th-most routes of all tight ends in the NFL. He also had the 11th-most target share of 16.7% in the NFL at his position, showing that he has a role on this team. With Engram potentially healthy in 2020, Smith will most likely return to his previous role. But with four games with at least five receptions and over 35 yards receiving, Smith is a free flier that could pay off at his current price tag.

Questions? Concerns? You can follow Justin and reach out to discuss the NFC East and more at his Twitter, @JMann_FF.

 

 

Indianapolis Colts 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Paul Lundgaard
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Indianapolis Colts 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Our very own Paul Lundgaard, aka @PauliesSleepers, brings his deep dive on the Indianapolis Colts offseason breakdown to the table. Let us know @TheUndroppables on Twitter what you think!

The Indianapolis Colts made some key additions to the team during free agency and the NFL Draft that indicate a strong push for a title. If there ever was a “win now” team, they are it. I’ll break down these moves along with positional discussions for the Colts offense and provide redraft and dynasty outlooks.

Quarterback

Jacoby Brissett filled in admirably after the retirement of Andrew Luck just weeks before the 2019 season, and he is still one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league, but a change was needed for this championship window. Enter Philip Rivers. On March 17th, the team signed Rivers to a one-year $25 million contract, all guaranteed money. Per Mike Chappell of CBS, head coach Frank Reich and Rivers fully expect a “multi-year relationship”. If Rivers performs as expected, he will likely sign another similar contract. Rivers has posted 4 of his top 5 highest seasons in attempts the last 5 years, with one outlier of 508 attempts in 2018. I expect the Colts to lean heavily on the run and for Rivers to post numbers similar to that outlier year. The Colts had 513 pass attempts in 2019 to go along with 471 rushing attempts, and I expect 500 or more rushing attempts in 2020. I’ll break down the players at the end of the article for fantasy purposes, but don’t expect Rivers to be a QB1 in 2020.

Brissett is on the last year of his contract and becomes an undrafted free agent (UFA) at the end of 2020. Expect him to sign with a QB-needy team in 2021. A move that will likely pave the way for Brissett’s departure was the Colts drafting Jacob Eason of the Washington Huskies 122nd overall in the draft. Eason threw for 3,132 yards in 2019, posting 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in his 1st year as a starter after transferring to Washington via Georgia. Eason is a prospect that is not as raw as some think, and could benefit greatly under the wing of Rivers. His twitter handle is @SkinnyQB10 because in Pop Warner his father knew he had the tools to become an offensive weapon (specifically QB), but forced him to start on the offensive line so he would learn about the position that would likely be protecting him in the future. Eason was rated by 247 sports as the #2 pro style recruit in his class and possesses the arm strength, accuracy, surprising mobility, and pocket presence to succeed at the next level. Per @ReflipeWThenuz from Dynasty Nerds, Eason’s pro skill set is reminiscent of Carson Palmer, Drew Bledsoe, and Byron Leftwich. In dynasty superflex formats, I would advocate adding Eason as a low-cost, high-reward stash.

Running Back

The Colts had a solid running back corps heading into the 2020 NFL draft. The group was led by starter Marlon Mack, followed by scatback and speedster Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, and former undrafted free agent (UDFA) Bruce Anderson III (originally signed and cut by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.) I fully expected the Colts to roll with this group being Mack’s final year and address the position in 2021 with so many young UFAs and a 2021 running back draft class with solid prospects. The team threw a very welcomed wrench into these expectations by trading up 3 spots and giving up the 44th and 160th picks to the Cleveland Browns to select (by my estimation the most talented running in the class) Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor.

With only 3 picks to fade, the Colts traded up for Taylor, which indicated to me that they had knowledge of, or at least a strong expectation that, the Jaguars would draft him. The Browns have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the latter of which they had placed a 2nd round tender on. The Bears have David Montgomery, who they selected in the 2019 draft and projects to be their bell cow. Then we have the Jaguars, a run-first team who had publicly put Leonard Fournette on the trade block to no avail. Fournette is in the last year of his contract and not likely to be re-signed. By trading up to get Taylor, the Colts got “their guy” and kept him off a division rival at the same time in a brilliant move that many haven’t talked about from this lens.

A move indicating an even more run-heavy scheme for 2020 was the acquisition of fullback Roosevelt Nix, who was drafted by the Falcons in 2014 and has spent the last four years as a lead blocker for the Steelers. The Colts haven’t rostered a fullback in several years. Nix, who checks in at 5’11” and 248 pounds, is a perfect addition to a run-heavy scheme and will lead the way for Mack and Taylor on up the middle runs in 2020. Nix was a Pro Bowler for the Steelers in 2018, and his ability to spring the guy with the rock behind him into a big play is highlighted in this clip from 2019 when James Conner wiggles free on a devastating block by Nix.

Colts
Newly signed Colts fullback Roosevelt Nix springs James Conner for a 25-yard run. (NFL.com)

The split in this backfield could lead to some frustration for fantasy managers who roster either Mack or Taylor in 2020. The Colts are likely to pound the rock early and often in coach Reich’s system, but don’t look for them to let Mack ride the pine over the more talented Taylor at first. There’s no reason not to get use out of a back that is versatile, knows the system, is getting paid, and is likely moving on at the end of the year.

My bigger worry is with Hines, who will have to fight for scraps; if he is used in the slot like the team has used him in the past, Hines will have to deal with 2nd-year player Parris Campbell who under all indications (and a preview of the “virtual playbook” by Evan Silva this winter) will get first crack at slot duties if healthy. Expect a split in the beginning of the season between Mack and Taylor, with the far more talented back (Taylor) taking more snaps as the season progresses. Also, keep in mind that Mack has lost 2 games once and 4 games twice in his career to soft tissue injuries. If this happens again in 2020, that would pave the way for Taylor to shine. Taylor is also underrated as a pass catcher as his college team Wisconsin does not often pass to running backs, but he showed good hands catching the ball away from his body and in stride with his 26 catches in 2019; he showed pass-catching acumen at his pro day as well. After watching Taylor’s pro day, Coach Reich noted that he showcased receiving skills that were very underrated. This will in turn hurt Hines’ chances to get any significant offensive snaps unless Campbell goes down to injury again this year. For redraft purposes, this backfield scares me. For dynasty purposes, I fully expect Taylor to be in the top 7 RBs selected in next year’s startup drafts. With Mack gone, 2021 and beyond will be very satisfying for those rostering Taylor on their fantasy squads.

Wide Receiver

2019 was a crap shoot for the Colts wide receivers, with a myriad of late-round picks and UDFAs desperately trying to fill in for starter T.Y. Hilton, who missed 6 games to injury. 2019 rookie draft selection Parris Campbell from Ohio State projected to contribute early and often, but missed most of the season. In a 2020 NFL draft loaded with talent at the position, the Colts drafted Michael Pittman Jr. from the “football factory” USC. Pittman, at 6’4″ and 225 pounds, profiles as an alpha outside wide receiver and projects to start opposite Hilton at the start of the season, with speedster Campbell in the slot. Hilton has already started camp on the PUP list with a “mild” hamstring injury that he suffered at home while training. This could be horrible news for the Colts, as these types of injuries tend to linger. UPDATE:  T.Y. Is fine and is impressing at camp, not only with his deep play ability, but at finding the soft spots in coverage. (8/17/2020)

According to our @TheUndroppables PT doc @TheRealAdam_H, it’s very concerning, and at his age with his former hamstring issues, he states Hilton has a 50-60% chance of re-injuring his hamstring this season. This could pave the way for Campbell, Pittman, and a player we will discuss later, but also reinforce the run-first philosophy of Reich and Co.

I would fade Hilton in redraft and sell him in dynasty. Campbell is worth a late-round flyer in redraft and a cheap add in dynasty. Pittman is highly recommended in dynasty formats and should be on your waiver radar mid to late this season if he acclimates to the offense early. For Pittman, it’s also noteworthy that Rivers’ top targeted players in every season (save for one when Antonio Gates was hurt and when Danny Woodhead led the team in targets) are players 6’4″ and taller (Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry, Vincent Jackson, Tyrell Williams). Hilton is a generous 6’0″ flat and Campbell 6’2″. Pittman’s downfield ability is highlighted in the clip below.

Tight End

I would be remiss not to talk about a position that has been hyper-targeted by Rivers. With the departure of Eric Ebron, the Colts looked to shore up their blocking by signing Trey Burton, formerly of the Bears. They also have a situational player who is still progressing and learning in former basketball star Mo Alie-Cox. That leaves Jack Doyle to run most of the routes at the position, who was also on the last year of his contract in 2019. The team fixed that in December, inking Doyle to a three-year extension worth $21 million, $13.75 million guaranteed.

With the relevance Rivers brought to Gates and Henry, and with the Colts having a similar system to the ‘Bolts (Frank Reich used to be the Chargers Offensive Coordinator), we have to look to Doyle to have a great shot as an upside fantasy play in 2020. Doyle has done it before, posting an impressive 80/604/4 stat line in 2017 on 108 targets. Rivers has targeted the position over 100 times in 90% of his seasons, making Doyle one of my sleepers at tight end in 2020. Doyle gets a boost if T.Y. Hilton would miss any time for his hamstring or anything else.

Offensive Line

The Colts return all 5 starters from 2019, who also all started all 16 games last year, per Colts.com. This unit is the crown jewel of Frank Reich’s offense earning:

  • 2nd consecutive All Pro and Pro Bowl honors for 2nd year player Quenton Nelson, with the top run blocking grade for 2 consecutive seasons per ProFootballFocus.com.
  • 3rd overall graded unit per PFF while being ranked the 1st in run blocking and 9th overall in pass blocking.
  • 4 of 5 starters ranked top 10 at their position per PFF

Nelson’s versatility was highlighted in a clip by @BrandonThornNFL in Week 1 of his rookie season:

Fantasy Summary:

Philip Rivers: A fade in normal 12-team, 16-round redraft leagues. A possibly nice waiver add to stream and cover
bye weeks and/or injuries. Rosterable in superflex or 2QB dynasty formats as a QB3 this year and next year.

Jacoby Brissett: Only rosterable in deep dynasty superflex formats.

Jacob Eason: An upside stash in dynasty superflex formats, could be the Colts 2022 starter. Buy him now.

T.Y. Hilton: Draft with confidence, he has early rapport with Rivers.  A dynasty hold in win now mode, a sell after he has a blow up game or two if you are rebuilding.

Parris Campbell: A late redraft upside play. Buy now for cheap in dynasty.

Michael Pittman, Jr.: Not likely relevant in redraft but possibly a late-season waiver add. A complete buy and
stash in dynasty.

Jack Doyle: Excellent late-round redraft TE pick. Undervalued for win-now dynasty teams; a “buy.”

Marlon Mack: Fade in redraft. Possible buy in dynasty at depressed value, risky and 2021 landing spot will
ultimately determine value. Remember, Mack is only 25 years old.

Nyheim Hines: Sleeper potential is overvalued. Fade or sell in all formats.

Jonathan Taylor: Likely not worth where he is being drafted in redraft, but one of the biggest dynasty buys there is.

 

Thoughts? Happy to discuss and always have my ears on at @PauliesSleepers.

Cleveland Browns Offseason Breakdown

Marc Mathyk
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Cleveland Browns Offseason Breakdown

Our very own Marc Mathyk, aka @Masterjune70, brings his take on the Cleveland Browns offseason breakdown to the table. Let us know @TheUndroppables on Twitter if you enjoy the alternate format!

Unfulfilled 2019 Hype

The NFL team that had the most hype coming into the 2019 season was the Cleveland Browns. After decades of failure, the Browns seemed ready to finally become a winning team. In 2018, they got their franchise quarterback and started to build a team full of young talent stemming from the days of former GM and analytics guru Sashi Brown. They had a great second half once they fired Hue Jackson. Gregg Williams took over the head coaching reigns with Freddie Kitchens running the offense. The Browns finished 5-3 and ended up with a semi-respectable 7-8-1 record.

Coaching Change

Kitchens did a great job as offensive coordinator and was also credited with being the catalyst that ignited Baker Mayfield in his rookie season. As a reward, he got promoted to Head Coach. Although he lacked the typical experience for the position, everyone was enamored with his ability to do so much in so little time. There were no arguments against the move. Instead, everyone was anticipating great things for Cleveland. However, it ended up being a decision that turned ugly when the wheels fell off in 2019. The Browns took a step backwards, finishing with a 6-10 record and leaving everyone with more questions than answers. Firing Kitchens seemed like a good place to start.

Cleveland
Firing Kitchens was the best option the Browns had. (Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)

Kitchens is now gone. Kevin Stefanski is now in. It’s ironic that they fired a first-time Head Coach only to turn around and hire another one. Both Kitchens and Stefanski have been involved in the NFL since 2006; both are associated with the offensive side of things, most notably tight ends and running backs. For some reason though, no one is questioning the Stefanski hire. It remains to be seen if he will be good, but it’s hard to fathom that he will be any worse.

Mayfield’s Regression in 2019

New coach aside, it’s a year later and many have curbed their enthusiasm. No one is really talking about the Browns like they were last year, and this is probably for the best. One thing is abundantly clear though: the success of the Browns in 2020 rests on Baker Mayfield’s shoulders. So let’s begin there.

In Mayfield’s 2018 rookie season, he played in 14 games and was solid. He had a respectable 63.8% completion rate and a great 7.7 yards per attempt. He threw for 3,725 yards, threw 27 touchdowns, and had 14 interceptions. All in all, very promising. Unfortunately for Mayfield, his sophomore season was a step back. He was less accurate, having only a 59.4% completion rate, while his yards per attempt fell to 7.2. What was most alarming was his 21 interceptions compared to only 22 touchdowns.

Like Josh Allen and Sam Darnold, Mayfield is in a crucial third year. Yes, he has two years left in his rookie contract, but if he fails to even replicate his first season, many will start to wonder if his college dominance remained in college. Cleveland could start the wheels in motion to recruit another quarterback whether through free agency or in next year’s quarterback-rich draft. Right now he is being viewed as QB18 according to FantasyPros expert consensus rankings. Last year at this time, he was QB7 on average, with some even having him in the top five. He finished the season as QB25 in fantasy points. As crazy as it might sound, Mayfield has never finished better than QB17 in his first two seasons.

A Closer Look: A Tale of Two Halves

There is some reason to be optimistic for Mayfield, however. Many are just looking at the entire 2019 season and shaking their heads, but if one were to divide the season into two halves, the statistics tell an entirely different story:

FIRST EIGHT GAMES

  • 159 completions on 271 attempts (58.7% completion rate)
  • 7 TDs
  • 12 INTs
  • 23 Sacks
  • 2-6 Record

LAST EIGHT GAMES

  • 158 completions on 263 attempts (60.1% completion rate)
  • 15 TDs
  • 8 INTs
  • 17 Sacks
  • 4-4 Record

Mayfield had a disastrous first half of the season under Kitchens. At that rate, he would have thrown 14 touchdowns compared to 24 interceptions. Once Kitchens was fired, he turned his season around posting his strongest eight game stretch of his career. Over 16 games at this rate he would have thrown 30 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. What is also important to note is the Cleveland defense was the polar opposite of Mayfield. In the first half of the season, the Browns defense was 12th best compared to being 26th in the second half.

Addressing the O-Line to Improve Inefficiency

The offensive line did not do any favors for Mayfield either. In 2018, they had the 16th best pass protection ranking according to Football Outsiders. Last year they were 18th. This is not a significant drop but it is a drop nevertheless.

The biggest concern on offense was Cleveland’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. An offense DVOA is better when it is positive. In 2018, they ended up with an overall score of -1.1%(17th overall) but in the second half push it up to 12.3% (8th overall). Last season they never saw positive DVOA and finished 20th overall. So even with Mayfield’s improvement during the second half of the season, as an offense, they still were not moving the ball effectively or efficiently.

During the offseason, the Browns drafted two lineman, most notably Jedrick Wills Jr. as the 10th overall pick. They also added free agent and former first-rounder Jack Conklin. He has not lived up to his draft hype but has been above average and is a definite upgrade at the right tackle position. The offensive line should be much better for Mayfield in 2020.

Other Offensive Skill Positions

As for offensive weapons, Cleveland did not do too much but they really didn’t need to. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the best running back duo in the league. They signed Austin Hooper so now they have a solid contributor at tight end and may have two if David Njoku can start living up to his potential. Odell Beckham Jr. played hurt all of last season and will be healthy.

Jarvis Landry is the receiver who might not be ready for the start of the season. He underwent surgery this offseason to address a hip injury that has been bothering him. Landry has never missed a game in the NFL before this. Both former LSU teammates are both undervalued this season (Landry is always undervalued) and when healthy provide a significant one-two punch. If Landry avoids missing many games, it is conceivable that both him and Beckham can be back-end WR1s. The third wide receiver position is wide open with Rashad Higgins and rookie Donovan Peoples-Jones battling it out. Neither will most likely be fantasy relevant but both could be solid contributors if Mayfield can step up his game.

Conclusion

With a new coach, an improved offensive line, a proven tight end, and a healthy Beckham Jr., Baker Mayfield has no excuses to underperform in 2020. He may never be a high-end QB1 but look for him to bounce back. It really comes down to his accuracy issues. Baker Mayfield has the potential for a 30+ touchdown season but what is making many apprehensive is he also has the potential to turn into an interception machine like Jameis Winston. If Mayfield cannot improve in this area, he could be the next quarterback drafted first overall who becomes as a backup sooner rather than later.

Market Watch | August 2020

Kyle Larson
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Market Watch | August 2020

Market Watch is where we dive into the ever-changing ADP values of players in dynasty formats. Whether it’s an opportunity to buy low, sell high or even buy high, sharks never sleep.

📈 Bullish: These are players whose average draft position (ADP) is trending up, meaning they likely have more trade value and will be taken higher in drafts than before.

📉 Bearish: These are players whose ADP is trending down, meaning they likely have less trade value and are likely being taken later in drafts.

Note: ADP is based on FFPC Dynasty-Startup SF/2QB Classic drafts; ADP and graphs are taken from RotoViz.

Cam Newton – 📈

ADP – 77.2 – 51.2 📈

Cam Newton is an obvious bullish asset because he went from being without a team to joining forces with Bill Belichick and presumably becoming the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots. Overall, Newton should be viewed as a player with question marks. He’s had a prolific career and shown that he’s a weapon on the field in both the run and pass game. However, his injury history is an obvious concern. He could miss time coming back from a shoulder injury, or play worse due to the injured shoulder. Our Undroppables doc, Adam Hutchison, tweeted an interesting thread on Cam’s shoulder recently. Near the end of the thread, we see some examples of Cam’s throwing motion post-injury. These two videos are a worrisome sight, and I recommend the entire thread if you want more insight into Newton’s health.

Those who drafted Newton in their startups over the summer should be very happy to see him sign to a team where he gets an immediate boost in value, as he likely won’t have to spend next season as the backup. This immediate boost in value can be seen in Newton’s ADP graph.

ADP
Cam Newton ADP

 

Newton’s signing not only elevates his market, but also elevates the other members of the Patriots’ passing attack. James White’s ADP has risen 33.8 spots, while Harry and Edelman both received small boosts in ADP. If Cam is truly healthy next season, there’s a very good chance all of these four players will be steals at their current ADP. I’m totally in on Edelman, White, Harry, and even Mohamed Sanu at their current ADP because of how much upside they’ll have next season compared to others around their ADP.

You can read more about the effect of Cam Newton on his new team in our Offseason Breakdown of the New England Patriots.

Denzel Mims – 📉

ADP – 153 – 38 📉

I was surprised when I saw Mims’ ADP had fallen so much over the past few months, and I don’t think I can rationalize the fall. Mims is a rookie who posted an 85th percentile College Dominator, ran a 4.38 at the combine, and was drafted in the second round. If his ADP is falling, I definitely want to take advantage of that and get Mims on my roster. He’s got a lot of upside and the lackluster Jets receiving corps will provide him opportunity early and often.

ADP

You can read more about Mims and the rest of his young offense in our Offseason Breakdown of the New York Jets.

Austin Hooper – 📉

ADP – 120.2 – 37.4 📉

The dynasty community has continued to adjust to Hooper’s less attractive spot in Cleveland. While I agree that Atlanta is a much better tight end situation than Cleveland is, I also think that NFL Front Offices do not make someone the highest paid player at their position and not have a plan to use them. For this reason, I like Hooper’s fall in ADP as it provides a buy opportunity. He should see the third-highest target share with the Browns behind Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, and new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s offense provided 105 targets to Minnesota’s tight end group in 2019. If Hooper can get 80% of that target number, he would have been ninth in targets among tight ends last year. Personally, I think Hooper will probably see even more than that, so I’d like to take him at his TE13 ADP.

Austin Hooper ADP

You can read more about Hooper’s positive outlook in the latest entry of our Devil’s Advocate series.

James Conner – 📈

ADP – 56 – 34.6 📈

James Conner ADP

Conner’s rise can probably be attributed to him just being healthy over the offseason. Accordingly, his ADP has probably become more true to what his value should be. His new ADP makes him the RB24, which is pretty fair for a guy with the upside that Conner has even though he has significant injury history. However, according to ADP, I could pick Chris Carson, Le’Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt or David Johnson over Conner, and I would rather have those guys with their concerns over Conner’s concerns.

Deebo Samuel – 📉

ADP – 92.6 – 33 📉

Deebo Samuel put up a stellar rookie season, but he recently suffered a Jones fracture. If you want to know all about Jones fractures and how it will affect Samuel, Adam Hutchison wrote a great article on our site. While you should still read the full article, to summarize here: we should expect Samuel to miss somewhere around the first half of the season and possibly have some irritation in his foot that could affect his performance later on. One important thing to remember here is this is DYNASTY market watch, not REDRAFT market watch. Please, consider Samuel’s production and still acquire him for what you believe that production should cost. There should be very little fade for a non-career threatening injury in dynasty leagues, unless you’re dead-set on winning a championship this year and moving Samuel for a contributing piece is necessary to reach that goal.

Deebo Samuel ADP

You can read more about Deebo and the Niners in our 49ers Offseason Breakdown.

David Johnson – 📈

ADP – 69.4 – 30 📈

David Johnson is one of my favorite buys this offseason, and his stock has been rising for a while after the move to Houston. After a forgettable finish to last season, most were quick to move on. However, Johnson was the PPR RB5 from Weeks 1-6 before going down to injury. If he had kept that pace over the entire season, he would have been the PPR RB3 at the end of the year. Meanwhile, the Texans rushing game provides a lot of opportunity for both volume and efficiency. Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson combined for 328 rushes and 78 targets last season, and if Johnson can command around a 70% share of that backfield, he’ll be flirting with a 300-touch season. Clearly, talent and opportunity are both present in this situation. His finish will depend largely on his health, so I 100% recommend drafting Duke Johnson later in your drafts or trading for him, especially if you have David Johnson.

David Johnson ADP

You can read more about the trade that brought David to Houston and the rest of Houston’s free agency period in this article.

Dawson Knox – 📉

ADP – 193 – 25.8 📉

Another fall in ADP that I’m not quite sure how to explain. Knox showed some promise in his rookie season, posting a TE32 finish with a 32/388/2 line  while playing 15 games. However, it should be noted that Knox was tied for fourth in drops last year among all positions with six drops in total. If he can clean those up and handle a little more opportunity, Knox will likely have a solid fantasy season. However, his TE24 ADP being above Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron likely presents an opportunity for contenders to sell Knox for a tight end that will likely provide a better fantasy finish next season. I do love Knox as a long-term dynasty buy, and his ADP is probably a tad high for the risk that he doesn’t develop.

Dawson Knox ADP

Hayden Hurst – 📈

ADP – 105.6 – 18.8 📈

As mentioned in the Austin Hooper section, the Atlanta Falcons’ tight end is a valuable position to roster in fantasy. There’s no exception with the Falcons latest acquisition, Hayden Hurst. Hurst showed some flashes in his time with Baltimore, but after an injury before his rookie season, Mark Andrews passed him on the depth chart and Hurst was unable to get his spot back. Hurst hasn’t shown up much in box scores because of this, but while only playing 39% of snaps with the Ravens last season, he posted a 30/349/2 line. He also has a physical skill set to be desired, running a 4.67 40-yard dash at the combine, which translates to a 81st percentile Speed Score among tight ends. Now, Hurst moves on to Atlanta, where the Falcons are among the league leaders in total pass attempts in the past two seasons. Just last year, Matt Ryan provided the Falcons tight end position group with 121 targets.

Overall, it’s hard to be sure of whether Hurst has elite talent, but he should be stepping into an elite opportunity in Atlanta. For me, this new opportunity combined with his production in limited roles is enough to invest in Hurst as a top-15 tight end at least, without injury. Looking at the graph, it does look like Hurst’s ADP may be falling down a little bit, which should create a decent buy opportunity.

Hayden Hurst ADP

You can read more about Hayden Hurst and the Falcons other offseason acquisitions in our Atlanta Falcons Offseason Breakdown.

Diontae Johnson – 📈

ADP – 105.2 – 17.2 📈

Diontae Johnson’s ADP has been climbing pretty much all summer due to experts on Twitter hyping him up as the new #1 WR in Pittsburgh. They have some interesting points about how good Johnson was last year with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges as his quarterbacks, and he posted a solid line of 59/680/5, leading the Steelers in targets. This was good enough for a WR39 finish in PPR in 2019, but there is a large question mark at the quarterback position in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger should be starting this year, but Diontae Johnson and James Washington both haven’t developed much of a rapport with Roethlisberger. Also, Big Ben could hang up the cleats pretty much any time in the next few years, especially if he gets injured again.

Personally, I see the case for and the case against Diontae, and I’ve been pretty indifferent either way. However, his current ADP of WR38 is only one better than his finish last year, so the upside is probably worth it.

You can read more about Roethlisberger’s 2020 outlook in our Pittsburgh Steelers Offseason Breakdown.

T.Y. Hilton – 📈

ADP – 103.8 – 14.2 📈

Hilton is entering his age 31 season, and coming off a WR57 finish in PPR. However, Hilton only played in ten games and averaged 12.5 PPR points in games he did play, which places him as the WR34 in PPR points per game last season. Over the offseason, the Colts did upgrade their quarterback position by moving from Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers. This move is likely what’s causing most of Hilton’s move upwards in ADP. However, Hilton has a bit of an injury history as he has missed eight games in the past two seasons. Hilton should be seen as a solid WR2 or WR3 in PPR with weekly WR1 upside, but it would be surprising for Hilton to finish as a WR1 on the season again.

T.Y. Hilton ADP

Ronald Jones – 📈

ADP – 97.6 – 13.6 📈

Ronald Jones’ ADP suffered a pretty large dip after the NFL draft, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected another running back in Vanderbilt product Ke’Shawn Vaughn. However, since that fall, Jones’ value has been increasing, and he is now the 33rd running back off the board in ADP. Jones put together 1,000 yards from scrimmage in his second season in the league last year, with 724 rushing yards on 172 attempts along with 309 receiving yards on 31 receptions. This output landed Jones as the RB25 in PPR last season, while his current ADP is the RB33. Personally, I don’t think Vaughn is nearly as large a threat as most people believe he is. Bruce Arians’ offense is a challenge to learn, as many of his former players have publicly stated. Especially with this truncated offseason, Vaughn may not be ready for a large role right from the jump. I am a Ronald Jones believer, and I think he should be at least a low-end RB2 this coming season and a value at his current ADP.

ADP
Ronald Jones ADP

You can read more about Ronald Jones and the Bucs’ offseason in our Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Breakdown.

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