The Undroppables - Trey Sermon

With Trey Sermon landing with the San Francisco 49ers, many fantasy managers are drooling over the possibility to grab the fourth overall RB selected in the NFL draft. But with a rather weak RB class, I can’t help but wonder, is Sermon’s third-round draft capital more of a concern? Could his injury history be a reason he slipped? I think there are some flags, which I outline below.

Injury History

2019 Left LCL tear against Iowa State; missed the rest of the season
2020 Left shoulder injury (SC Joint separation) in the national championship game

LCL Injuries

Isolated LCL tears are pretty rare. A common mechanism of injury is knee hyperextension. They aren’t commonly seen without other injuries, (ACL tear, bone bruise, fracture etc.) but can happen.

Sermon’s Injury

Below is the video of Sermon’s knee injury. His left knee hyperextends as he’s being tackled. The blue arrows highlight and outline the hyperextension of Sermon’s knee.

It’s unclear if Sermon had surgery, however an interview before 2020 makes it seem like he did. “I’m feeling pretty good right now,” Sermon said. “I’ve made a lot of progress, and I met with the doctor last week and he said I’ll be cleared in a month instead of late May.”

For a grade II LCL injury, a player could return in about eight weeks if surgery was avoided. The fact that he had to meet with a doctor and discuss a return-to-play timeline around six months suggests surgery.

After an injury like this, I wanted to see if there were any alternated biomechanics due to changes in knee stability, especially with cutting. Varus (pushing inside of the knee outward) forces could be an issue in addition to knee hyperextension.

Pre-Injury

Watching the left knee, he loads the knee, flexes with a slight inward bend, and accelerates laterally to make the defender miss.

Post-Injury

I saw the same mechanics after his LCL injury as well. Sermon is not afraid to load that knee and can get lateral.

This is something that stood out to me from Sermon’s Instagram post-injury. The blue circle shows toe out and external rotation in the right lower leg. The green circle shows a different pattern on the left. Without seeing him run pre-injury, it’s impossible to say if this matters.

Given his injury, I wonder if he’s avoiding stress to his LCL with an altered gait pattern. This information was more for me and something I will monitor going forward.

Shoulder Injury

Finally, here is Sermon’s right sternoclavicular (SC) joint injury from the National Championship. Another rare injury. Luckily Sermon did not have to have surgery. I don’t see this as an issue moving forward.

Sermon had to go to the hospital, which indicates there was concern the clavicle shifted posterior (backward). This can be a medical emergency due to the possibility of the clavicle pressing into the trachea. Sermon was okay and did not suffer any serious complications.

Summary

The LCL injury was interesting. Although I didn’t see any major complications, it’s something to monitor. If Sermon has knee hyperextension or hamstring injuries moving forward, it might be an issue. An altered gait pattern could cause foot/ankle issues as well.

Avoiding a more serious injury as a result of the SC joint separation was huge for Sermon. The fact that he didn’t need surgery to correct helps his long-term outlook.

A concern I noticed with Trey Sermon is with some of these less common injuries; I would hope it doesn’t become a trend based on his running style. Watching him play, he gets vertical quickly. He’s a north/south runner, but I didn’t see a lot of elusiveness.

Even players like Nick Chubb and James Robinson (robust RBs) have some wiggle to their game. I am slightly nervous about the trajectory of Sermon if these contact injuries pile up. That could be an issue in the NFL. Regardless, Trey Sermon should be a value in best ball this season. You can see how he stacks up with Chubb and Robinson in the Rotounderworld best ball draft kit.

Credit to Playerprofiler for these metrics and graphics.

Some of this evidence is anecdotal and subjective, but they were my findings. I like Sermon, but there are some cautions flags, in my opinion. I will be following him closely in 2021 and beyond.

If you wish to see the link to the original Twitter Thread click HERE.

For a more in-depth, fantasy-football-driven breakdown of Trey Sermon or any other rookie prospects, make sure you check out The Undroppable Rookie Draft Guide.

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