Anatomy of a Top-16 Dynasty Quarterback
- Josh Allen *
- Patrick Mahomes *
- Justin Herbert *
- Joe Burrow *
- Kyler Murray *
- Lamar Jackson *
- Trey Lance
- Dak Prescott *
- Trevor Lawrence
- Justin Fields
- Russell Wilson *
- Deshawn Watson *
* Also made 2021 list
Draft Capital
- 1.01 = Three
- 1st Round = Seven
- Day 2 = One
- Day 3 = One
9 of the 12 were drafted in the top 12 of NFL Draft. The outliers are Russell Wilson and Dak. The key is that you will find your dynasty QBs in the early 1st of the NFL Draft.
Size
Height
- Less 6’0” = Two
- 6’0” or 6’1” = Zero
- 6’2” or 6’3” = Five
- 6’4” + = Five
The outliers are Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson (again).
Weight
- Sub-200 lbs = Zero
- 200-210 lbs = Two
- 210-220 lbs = One
- 220 lbs+ = Nine
Kyler, Brees & Russ have all shown that size doesn’t matter – or does it?
College YPA (Career and Best Full Season)
Career
- 8.0 less = Two
- 8.0 – 8.5 = Five
- 8.5 – 9.0 = One
- 9.0+ = Four
Best Full Season
- 8.0 less = Zero
- 8.0 – 8.5 = Two
- 8.5 – 9.0 = Four
- 9.0+ = Six
The takeaway here is that a minimal of 8.0+ career & 8.5+ best season is the threshold that you are looking for. 10 of 12 top QBs had 8.5+ YPA in a full season.
College Completion % (Career and Best Full Season)
Career
- 60% less = Two
- 60%-65% = Four
- 65%+ = Six
Best Full Season
- 60% less = Two
- 60%-65% = Zero
- 65%+ = 10
If you correlate best college season Comp% and YPA – you are looking for a season with 65% completions and 8.5+ YPA. Note that Lamar and Josh Allen were sub-60% in college so completion percentage is not necessarily a death knell but requires the quarterback to put the time in to develop.
Total Career College Attempts
Does playing only one season matter?
- 500 less = One
- 500-1,000 = Four
- 1,000+ = Seven
This is the Trey Lance test – we will see if his limited experience plays a part in his NFL development. 10 of 12 top QBs had more than 600 career college attempts.
Best College Season
Total Pass Yards
- 3,000 less = One
- 3,000-3,750 = Six
- 3,750-4,500 = Two
- 4,500+ = Three
Total TDs
- 40 less = Two
- 40-50 = Four
- 50+ = Six
They basically all hit 3,200+ pass yards & 35+ Total TDs in a single season. Only Trey Lance’s 2,786 pass yards falls short in this metric.
Konami Code
Best College Season Rushing Yards
- 300 less = One
- 300-600 = Six
- 600-900 = Zero
- 900+ = Five
- 40-Time
- 4.60+ = Four
- 4.60-4.80 = Six
- 4.80-5.00 = Two
- 5.00 slower = Zero
Today’s elite Dynasty QB runs faster than 4.8/40 and had a college season over 300 yards rushing.
Career College INT% Rate
- 2% less = Five
- 2%-2.75% = Six
- 2.75% more = One
Only three of these guys had a rate over 2.5% Josh Allen was the outlier. Josh Allen is an outlier. Be aware of a high college interception rate!
Summary
- Early 1st round pick
- YPA 8+ career 8.5+ best season
- Comp% – 62%+ career & 65%+ best season
- Best College Season 3200+ pass yards and 35+ Total TDs
- Single Season of 300+ rush yards and 40-time sub 4.80
- Career INT rate below 2.7%
- 600+ college pass attempts
