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Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Quarterbacks

December 31, 2019

Final Exam is a statistical deep-dive into a select group of prospects from each rookie class. With an analytics-driven approach, an objective breakdown is provided so readers can properly adjust their perspectives from a dynasty lens.

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Running Backs

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Wide Receivers

In the 2019 rookie class,

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Dwayne Haskins, Washington Redskins
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Although the data set for Lock is extremely limited due to the team’s decision to start the veteran Flacco, the Denver rookie QB was included to provide a comprehensive look at the top prospects in the 2019 QB class.

To evaluate this year’s rookie QB class, I took a closer look at the following categories: Passing Productivity, Passing Opportunity, Passing Efficiency, Rushing Productivity and Rushing Opportunity.

Passing Opportunity

In terms of pass attempts, Kyler Murray led all rookies, followed by Gardner Minshew and Daniel Jones coming in third. Haskins and Lock were further down as they did not start until later in the year. Murray ended up 9th in total pass attempts among all quarterbacks in his rookie year.

An interesting (and somewhat surprising) find is that Jones actually attempted one more pass per game than Murray. Coming into the season, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury stated he wanted to run 90-95 plays per game in an uptempo, air raid offense. No team has averaged 80 offensive plays per game and 2019 was no different as the Eagles led the league with 69 plays per game. The Cardinals were actually in the bottom half of the league with 62.5, behind Jones’ Giants.

The Giants played without Saquon Barkley through much of the season and leaned on their rookie QB, which likely bumped up his per game passing volume. Even so, Jones is surrounded with receiving talent from Barkley to Engram to Slayton, Shepard and Tate so it’s easy to project high volume for Jones in his sophomore year.

Each of these rookies outside of Minshew have (guaranteed) starting jobs in 2020 so we can expect the passing volume to be there. Like Jones, we can project Murray to have top 10 passing volume as long as Kingsbury keeps his job after a mediocre first year (which is likely). If Bill Callahan stays in Washington (surprisingly, this is an actual possibility), then the Redskins offense stays run-heavy and Haskins’ pass volume will be tempered. With limited data on Lock, projecting any future 2020 volume will be challenging although Flacco did throw 32.8 times on average (close to Lock’s 31.2). At Lock’s current rookie passing rate, he’d throw 500 times in his second year, which is about middle of the pack.

Passing Productivity

Murray led the way with over 3,300 passing yards but still trailed Jones in other productivity categories (YPG and pass TDs). In fact, Kyler had the third-highest pass yards per game average.

While Murray boasts the higher floor with his rushing, the opportunity and productivity statistics show that Jones may have a higher ceiling. This is strictly conjecture at this point, but Jones can sling it and, as mentioned before, he has a plethora of weapons at his disposal. Minshew was second among rookies in terms of total pass yards while leading the 2019 class in pass yards per game.

Passing Efficiency

Accuracy Rating – Grades the accuracy each of throw on a 1-10 scale. 1-3 representing the most errand throw, 4-7 representing throws in some range of catchable but sub-optimal, and 8-10 representing the most pinpoint passes allowing receivers to convert receptions and gain yards after the catch. Quarterbacks with Accuracy Ratings above 6.0 are considered highly accurate, and those below 4.0 are considered highly inaccurate.

When looking at the 2019 rookie QB class from an accuracy standpoint, each of the five signal callers that were evaluated scored as highly accurate passers. Although it was a small sample size, Lock led rookies in accuracy rating and true completion rate but Kyler was close behind followed by Minshew and Jones in both categories. However, given the volume of the latter three mentioned, accuracy ratings at or near 7.0 is an extremely positive indicator for rookies.

A key takeaway here is that Murray scored an accuracy rating of 7.0 with top 10 passing volume. To put into some context, Murray was more accurate than Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, among others, and just as accurate as Russell Wilson who sees much less passing volume.

Air Yards – Completed passing yards not including yards after the catch. The higher the completed air yards per attempt, the less a quarterback is being helped by his receivers gaining yards after the catch.

Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A) – Modified yards per attempt incorporates a premium for touchdowns and a discount for interceptions. This stat was introduced and fully outlined in the book The Hidden Game of Football by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn.

The five rookie QBs each scored similarly when looking at completed air yards per attempt, all scoring in the 3’s. This is about average when comparing against all NFL quarterbacks. Whether it was conservative playcalling to prevent rookie mistakes, these young guns didn’t push the ball down the field (which is corroborated in the next category: Deep Balls).

Deep Balls

Murray may have given the edge to Jones in opportunity and efficiency, Kyler does promise a nice passing ceiling when considering deep ball volume and accuracy. Only Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes threw more deep balls with more accuracy than Kyler Murray. They said that Murray could sling it. They weren’t wrong.

Rushing Opportunity

Not many surprises at the top of this list with Murray at the top by a decent margin, although Kyler getting over 1 red zone carry per game is something to note and is accentuated when looking at rushing TDs (see below).

Rushing Productivity

Kyler was far and away the most prolific rusher in this class, placing 35th among all players. Murray actually had more rushing yards in his rookie year than veteran backs like James Conner, Kerryon Johnson, David Johnson, Royce Freeman, Jordan Howard, Damien Williams to name just a handful.

To put it Murray’s rushing production into further context, Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara each had 5 rushing TDs while Murray scored four times on the ground. This probably says more about Mixon’s and Kamara’s TD regression heading into 2020, but also sheds some light into Murray being a true dual red zone threat. Murray only had four carries inside the 5 so he was running it in from anywhere in the red zone.

Turnovers

I recall Jones and Minshew having some meltdown games but I did not expect to see double-digit fumbles for these rookie QBs. The Giants and Jaguars were middle of the pack in pass protection so the carelessness with the football will need to be remedied over the offseason. Daniel Jones also threw 12 interceptions to tie Murray for the rookie lead.

Fantasy Points Scored

Kyler finishes as the top rookie QB and the QB7 overall with 18.8 points per game. Jones was still a QB2 even though he missed a few games and Minshew was right behind at #23. Haskins and Lock, understandably, were ranked near the bottom.

Grades

* This is only a one-year sample size, but we can extract some information from what we’ve seen and make adjustments this offseason.

Kyler Murray – Heralded as the next elite Konami Code QB after Lamar Jackson, Murray came into the league with back-to-back 300 yard games but minimal rushing production. However, his rushing floor surfaced in Week 3 and has firmly established Kyler as a top 5 dynasty quarterback. Murray has an incredible floor based off his rushing production and his propensity to air it out gives him a sky-high ceiling. The biggest downside to Murray is his 26th ranked pass blocking offensive line (per Football Outsiders) that ill-affords him and his receivers time to create plays. Arizona will shore up their o-line problems this offseason to protect their franchise QB and look to replace Larry Fitzgerald who is likely retiring this time. Some have already come out and pegged Kyler as the Lamar Jackson of 2020 with a stellar breakout campaign predicted. That remains to be seen but the 2019 QB9 only has room to grow even more in an offense that is built around him and will undoubtedly add additional weapons to the fold.

Talent – ✅✅✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?

Dwayne Haskins – Whether the front office didn’t deem him ready to start the season, Haskins gave way to veteran journeyman Case Keenum for a good portion of the 2019 season. And even when he took the reins, the OSU product was lackluster with his best game coming against the weak Eagles secondary for 261 yards and 2 TDs. But watching the games, it was clear that Haskins was not NFL-ready to start his career and will need work. He often missed easy throws to his receivers including his former college teammate, Terry McLaurin, who suffered as a result. The preseason hype was purely based on his SportsCenter appearance where he appeared to be a prodigy when it came to defense reads and play breakdowns. But when he got on the field, his talent did not match the expectations of a top 15 overall pick in the NFL Draft, especially a franchise QB. On the upside, Haskins is only 22 and has made some plays particularly as the season has wound down. He’s a project with an uncertain situation (Washington has question marks from the front office to the coaching staff to the 31st ranked pass blocking offensive line). And outside of McLaurin and a hopefully healthy Guice, the Redskins lack playmakers around Haskins. This offseason will be critical not only for Haskins’ development but the Redskins franchise as a whole.

Talent – ?
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ❔

Daniel Jones – Danny Dimes quickly proved the haters wrong upon his entrance into the league in Week 2 with 336 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns (2 pass, 2 rush). Based off his passing volume, Jones looks to be able to support solid production numbers. The Giants are a team in transition but with an array of receiving weapons along with the transcendent Barkley, Jones will continue to develop into a solid NFL starting quarterback for the next decade. The most alarming issue with Jones, as with some of the other rookies, is ball security and his fumble issues. New York’s offensive line actually ranked 18th in pass blocking so the fumbling woes cannot be blamed on a lack of protection. Jones must protect the ball and have better game sense when it comes to pocket awareness. Currently, Dimes is squarely in the top 10 dynasty QB conversation and it would not be surprising to see him creep even higher over the offseason as the Giants continue to change things beginning with the coaching staff.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ?

Drew Lock – Stuck behind veteran Joe Flacco to begin his career, Lock took some time to get on the field but immediately delivered once was given an opportunity. With that said, the sample size is limited with Lock so it is hard to judge his true talent level given the small number of attempts and games. We also don’t know much about the Broncos offense outside of Sutton, Lindsay and Fant who have defined roles. Both Daesean Hamilton and Tim Patrick are projects at best so Denver will need to retool through the draft as they likely won’t be major players for a free agent WR (as they traded the aging Emmanuel Sanders). Lock is a hold in dynasty and generally a wait and see.

Talent – ❔
Situation – ?‍♂️
Final Grade – ?

Gardner Minshew – Minshew Mania took the NFL world by storm and the mustaches were out in full force in Duval. But things eventually soured when Minshew hit the rookie wall at the most inopportune time for him… when Nick Foles was set to be activated from IR. In the game before Foles’ activation, Minshew had a complete meltdown with 2 interceptions and 2 fumbles in a blowout loss against the Texans. Minshew was promptly benched only to be reinserted as the starter after Foles had a meltdown of his own. As of now, we are unsure as to who will hold the keys to the Jaguars offense next season but Foles is a salary cap liability after signing a 4 year $88,000,000 contract this offseason. Minshew has flashed at times but has also driven his fantasy owners crazy with up and down weeks at any given moment. He’s fun to watch but wild gunslinging ways make unpredictable and inconsistent. Tread with caution and don’t get caught up in the Minshew Mania or you might be having a meltdown of your own.

Talent – ?
Situation – ?‍♂️
Final Grade – ?

Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 17)

Michael Reedy

December 28, 2019

Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 17)

For most of us championship week was last week. But for some Week 17 is still being played so with that in mind I did one last Money Makers & Heart Breakers for 2019. We will take into account some players may not actually even play – See Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram

Quarterbacks

? Money Makers

Carson Wentz – Wentz has just been playing out of his mind over the last month, including during a Week 14 matchup against the Giants where he put up 325 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wentz faces the Giants again who are not good against the pass being the third friendliest defense for quarterbacks in fantasy. You can expect Wentz to throw the ball 40 something times this game and get you the fantasy points you need in this penultimate week.

Ryan Tannehill – In Week 15, Tannehill hit the Texans with 272 passing and 2 total scores. Tannehill has been listed as a Money Maker every single week I have written this column and here he is again. Tannehill gets to warm up for the playoffs by torching this bottom 5 fantasy pass defense.

Jared Goff – (If he plays) Goff could give up reps to Bortles in Week 17 with the Rams out of the playoff picture, but there are no signs that Goff is sitting. With that in mind, Los Angeles faces the Cardinals who are the worts team against quarterbacks this season. Goff has struggled under pressure but Arizona will present no pressure on the Rams QB as the Cardinals lack anyone on their defensive front that is capable of consistently getting to the QB. Earlier this month, these teams faced off and Goff threw for 424 yards with 2 passing TDs. You can look for similar numbers from the Rams QB this week.

Other quarterbacks I like in Week 17 are Daniel Jones, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers

? Heart Breakers

Matt Ryan – Matty Ice comes in as a Heart Breaker once again, even though he is facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Ryan struggled against the Bucs back in Week 12 and without Calvin Ridley, the Falcons offense just lacks the juice for Ryan to boast QB1 upside. And although Tampa has been known to be fairly weak against the pass, things have turned around in south Florida including a recent dismantling of Deshaun Watson. Matty will be icy cold this week and produce less than you would expect.

Kirk Cousins – The Bears defense is good against the pass and Cousins hasn’t looked great recently against the likes of the Packers and the Chargers. In fact, over the past 2 weeks, Cousins has only totaled 327 yards 2 TDs with a pair of interceptions. He’s definitely been on the downtrend and a date with Chicago isn’t the cure, especially with Cook still out. There is no one to take the pressure off the passing game. Cousins needs a strong running game to achieve a solid floor and he just doesn’t have it right now. The last time Cousins played the Bears was in Week 4 and he managed 233 yards and no touchdowns. I don’t expect the Vikings passing game to go nuts in against the Bears in this tough divisional matchup.

Running Backs

? Money Makers

Austin Ekeler – The Chiefs defense is actually pretty friendly to running backs (just like their offense). In their last matchup, Ekeler got them for 108 yards rushing with 5 receptions for 24 yards. Ove the last 3 weeks, Kansas City has bottled up the RB position against the Patriots, Broncos, and Bears. You can look for Ekeler to pile up some yards with short passes and break out some nice runs against the Chiefs this week.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt – The Bengals have given up good rushing games the last three weeks to the Dolphins (Gaskins 55 yards but scored a TD), Patriots (White, Burkhead and Michel all scored in double digits in fantasy when New England faced Cincinnati), and the Browns (both Hunt and Chubb also had double-digit fantasy points). With this in mind, you can expect the Browns to come in with the game plan of utilizing both of their backs against the Bengals.

Marlon Mack – Mack rumbled for 95 yards and a touchdown last week against Carolina, who struggles against the run. This week Mack gets another porous defense against the run in the Jaguars. I expect Mack to produce a similar outing to what he produced in Week 16 as the Jags continue to give up big plays to opposing running backs every week.

Other running backs I really like this week are Mixon, Jones, Kamara and Damien Williams

? Heart Breakers

Devonta Freeman – Tampa Bay is stout against the run and the Falcons struggle to run against tough run defenses. Tampa has not allowed an opponent rush for over 100 yards since Week 9, and that was Chris Carson, who was getting high touch volume with the Seahawks and very capable of producing with it. Unfortunately for Freeman, Atlanta doesn’t run the ball as much as Seattle and Freeman is not as talented runner as Carson.

Wide Receivers

? Money Makers

Breshard Perriman – 25.5 % or the target share last week for 12 targets, 7 receptions and 102 yards. The past four weeks he has had 87 yards, 70 yards and a TD, 113 yards and 3 TDs and 102 yards. Perriman will continue to roll as the number 1 wide receiver in an offense boasting a trigger happy Jameis Winston.

Allen Robinson – Robinson has averaged 11.2 targets over the past 5 games and he had a solid 7 for 77 outing against the Vikings in Week 4. Add to this that the Vikings are a bottom 10 defense against the wide receiver position and we can deduce a pretty damn good day for Robinson in Week 17. Take the volume and go with it.

Sterling Shepard – It was stated earlier in this column that the Eagles are good against the run, well they are not so good against the pass. Shepard’s last two weeks he has seen 9 receptions for 111 yards against Miami and 6 receptions for 76 yards and a TD against the Redskins. Jones does spread the ball around so it could be Tate or even Slayton that gets most of the production here but I like Shepard now that he is healthy.

Other wide receivers I like for Week 17 are Thomas, Jones, Adams all to be highly productive.

? Heart Breakers

Davante Parker – The best defense against the pass is the Patriots. Only 2 receivers have 100-yard games against the Patriots and both were slot receivers. Parker has been tearing it up with Fitzmagic forcing him the ball. This is also the week to move away from Parker in DFS. I would expect a disappointing 4 receptions for 50 yards this week.

Tight Ends

? Money Makers

Dallas Goedert – The Eagles still need pass catchers and Goedert had a career game last week with 9 receptions for 91 yards and touchdown. Ertz is a game-time decision. If Ertz is out Goedert will have another monster day, if Ertz plays Goedert should still have a very productive day as one of the trusted receivers for Wentz.

Jared Cook – Carolina is actually good against the tight end position but Cook has had over 50 yards and/or a touchdown every week since the week 9 bye. He has proven to be a big play threat and the second option in the Saints passing attack. I would look for Cook to have another solid day against the Panthers like he did in week 12 where he had 6 catches for 99 yards and a TD.

Other tight ends I like this week– Hooper, Ertz(if he plays), and obviously Kittle and Kelce.

? Heart Breakers

Mike Gesicki – Gesicki had a big game last week with 82 yards and 2 touchdowns, but please don’t chase the box score. The Patriots have only allowed 2 tight ends to have more than 5 catches on the season and have not given up a 100 yard game to the position all season (only one game with over 66 yards). Fade the Dolphins tight end even though he’s been trending upwards recently.

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Wide Receivers

Chalk

December 26, 2019

Note: These statistics are current as of December 25, 2019 (before Week 17 games).

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Quarterbacks

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Running Backs

In the 2019 rookie class, there were 7 notable wide receivers many considered to be first or second round talent (with the exception of Terry “F1” McLaurin who had a third round rookie ADP).

- N’Keal Harry, New England Patriots
- A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
- Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
- D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
- Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts
- Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins
- Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens

Although the data sets for Campbell and Harry were limited due to missed games caused by injuries, these two were included to provide a comprehensive look at the top prospects in the 2019 WR class.

Receiving

A.J. Brown, posted a rookie best 927 receiving yards on 48 receptions (2nd). Brown also had a whopping 19.3 yards per reception in his rookie year with Marcus Mariota under center for 5 games to start the season.

In terms of receptions, McLaurin led the rookie pack with 58 catches. F1 was 2nd among rookies with 919 receiving yards while tying D.K. Metcalf with 15.8 yards per reception. Metcalf was third among rookies in receiving yards with 819.

The aforementioned Metcalf and his NFC West counterpart, Deebo Samuel, both caught 52 balls as the alpha receiving options for their teams. Deebo posted 700 receiving yards and a solid 13.5 yards per reception. As we will discuss below, Deebo’s yardage was driven heavily by his yards after catch ability as he recorded below average air yards.

Due to lack of games played, N’Keal Harry (9/76) and Parris Campbell (18/127) were nonfactors with minimal reception and yardage totals.

Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement and Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average

Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) – Per Football Outsiders, this metric gives the value of the performance on plays where this WR caught the ball, compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) – Per Football Outsiders, this metric represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player’s performance.

A quick glance at the table above shows that both A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin were head and shoulders above the rest of the 2019 class when looking at DYAR and DVOA. Their 200+ defense-adjusted yards above replacement level and the excellent DVOA scores are positive signs for two players who are emerging as the number one options for their teams (see below “Targets and HOG Rate”). Brown posted scores of 208 and 24.1% while McLaurin had a DYAR of 212 and a DVOA of 18.7%.

Deebo (105/7.5%), Metcalf (90/0.4%) and Hollywood (95/4.5%) each lacked consistency from week to week facing different defensive looks, which is illustrated by their sub-par to average DYAR and DVOA scores.

Due to missed games and lack of production, Harry (-10/-21.4%) and Campbell (-108/-75.8%) scored extremely poorly in terms of DYAR and DVOA.

Targets and HOG Rate

Target Share – Measures the percentage of all passing targets directed at a particular wide receiver or tight end in games that that receiver was involved in the passing attack.

HOG Rate – Captures the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis by calculating the number of targets per snap. Read more about HOG Rate here as broken down by Terminator.

Although no rookie receiver cracked the top 30 among WRs in HOG Rate, Hollywood Brown had a respectable rate of 14.6%. Marquise saw 69 targets (5.6 per game), good for a 21% share of the Ravens’ team targets.

F1 had the highest target total and target share amount rookies with 93 targets and a 22.9% share, ranking him 22nd among all wide receivers. Metcalf also saw 20% of his team’s targets with 88 looks from Russ.

In terms of targets per game, Campbell’s lack of opportunity despite a shallow receiving corps in Indy could be another red flag in addition to his inability to stay healthy. Both A.J. and Marquise Brown, Deebo, McLaurin, and D.K. averaged at least 5 targets per game, which provides WR3 level floors.

Yards After Catch and Catch Rate

True Catch Rate – Captures a player’s ability to secure the football in all situations regardless of the level of difficulty by dividing the total receptions by total catchable targets.

* Denotes Catch Rate as True Catch Rate was not available for this player.

Once again, A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel stand out in the analysis, showing how dangerous they are with the ball in their hands. Their yards after catch totals led rookies (300+ ypc). When you factor in their 80% true catch rates, it’s becoming clear that these young guns can make plays.

With solid true catch and contested catch rates, McLaurin was among the league leaders in both categories. This speaks volumes to his ability to go up and get the ball over defenders with sure hands, making him a reliable and consistent weapon.

In somewhat of a surprise, Marquise Brown, known as a burner during the pre-draft process, led all rookies in true catch rate.

Again, due to lack of opportunities on the field (caused by injuries), Harry and Campbell did not post any numbers of significance in these categories.

Air Yards

Air Yards – For wide receivers, air yards are total completed receiving yards from the line of scrimmage to the catch point.

Another measure of productivity is air yards, which shows how far the receiver is getting down the field before getting the ball. McLaurin (636) led all rookie WRs with Metcalf (578) and AJB (508) close behind. Hollywood posted 373 total air yards while averaging 5.6 air yards per target.

Deebo may be a gamechanger but his low air yards total (301) with a mediocre-at-best 4.3 air yards per target, shows that he is generally getting the ball close to the line of scrimmage.

Campbell may boast breakaway speed and elusiveness, but his 1.1 air yards per target may be a sign that he will be confined to a gadget role. Harry mainly operated in red zone packages when he was available, which is reflected with a minimal 3.6 air yards per target and 50 total air yards.

Red Zone Usage and Touchdowns

Red Zone Target Share – Measures the percentage of all passing targets from a line of scrimmage at or inside the 20-yard line directed at a particular wide receiver or tight end in games that the receiver was involved in the passing attack.

Not surprisingly, the WRs with good size saw the most red zone targets and red zone target share in year one: Deebo (16/23.5%), D.K. (13/18.8%) and McLaurin (13/23.6%). Correspondingly, these three along with Hollywood (12/19.7%) saw the highest red zone target share among rookie WRs.

A.J. Brown may have not seen even a 20% red zone target share, but he still demonstrated a propensity to score with 7 touchdown receptions while seeing 8 red zone targets. F1 and Hollywood also posted 7 receiving scores.

Drops

The key takeaways here are that each of these first-year receivers had their share of (bad) drops, which isn’t surprising for rookies. However, Samuel, in particular, had an alarming drop rate of 12.9%. Metcalf also had a fairly high drop rate of 6.9%.

Fantasy Points Scored (PPR)

A.J. Brown (WR22) had a spectacular rookie year, putting up 194.7 total PPR points (13 ppg). This is an impressive feat given he played in a run-heavy scheme with two different QBs while adjusting to the NFL game.

Terry McLaurin (WR25) started off fast like a F1 racecar, hit a midseason rookie wall and then broke through to finish off the season. Like Brown, McLaurin played with multiple signal callers in his first year. As of Week 16, McLaurin scored 191.9 points in PPR formats (13.7 ppg).

D.K. Metcalf had an up and down season that culminated in a WR3 finish. Not bad for a player who was mocked for 3-cone drills and pegged as a one-dimensional threat. With 167 total points scored (11.1 ppg), Metcalf finishes as WR34.

Deebo Samuel scored 148.8 points (11.4) and ranked as the 42nd ranked WR. Marquise Brown was close behind at 44, scoring 142.9 PPR points (11 ppg).

Harry (26.7/5.3) and Campbell (38.1/5.4) each ranked outside the top 100 with minor contributions.

Grades

* This is only a one-year sample size, but we can extract some information from what we’ve seen and make adjustments this offseason.

N’Keal Harry – When he was drafted by the Patriots, many considered Harry to be a lock for instant NFL success. With his college production, athletic profile, and skill set, there is no reason why Harry cannot be a solid contributor for years to come. However, the biggest question mark heading into 2020 beyond is the status of Tom Brady. Where will the GOAT play next season and the years after? If Brady leaves, does Belichick retire? Those are legitimate questions and concerns for Patriots fans and Harry owners alike. This year has to be written off as a redshirt season due to an ankle injury that forced him on IR to start his career so the jury is still out on whether Harry will find the success that is well within reach. He’s a buy low WR4 based on youth and potential.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ❔
Final Grade – ?

A.J. Brown – Coming into his rookie year, A.J. Brown was considered by many to be the top WR prospect in this year’s class (Shoutout to Samuel Wallace over at DFF). The season that Brown put together with 927 receiving yards on only 48 receptions is proof that he can flat out make plays. He also posted four games over 100 receiving yards (as noted above). Looking at his situation is another story, although not necessarily negative. Ryan Tannehill stepped in as the Titans’ QB and turned things around quickly. Now faced with a decision on whether to franchise tag or extend Tannehill, the Titans’ decision will play a major factor in Brown’s immediate (and continued) success. Personally, I am not sold that Tannehill is a true long term (or even viable) solution. He may end up to be the next Nick Foles. Currently, with Tannehill projected to be around, Brown is locked in as a solid WR3 with WR2 upside.

Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?

Deebo Samuel – Deebo was drafted to put heat on Dante Pettis but Samuel ended up torching the incumbent. A bigger, faster and better version of Pettis, the 49ers rookie made splash plays throughout the season. Kyle Shanahan has looked to get the ball to Samuel in the red zone so the scoring upside is there. And although San Francisco tries to grind down their opponents with a three-headed RBBC, Samuel provides the offense with a spark that adds a whole different dynamic. This contrast from the run dominant approach allows Samuel to catch opposing defenses off guard for chunk gains, enhanced by his YAC ability. While he finishes as a mid-range WR4 in year one, Deebo has WR3 upside written all over him.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?

D.K. Metcalf – Metcalf entered the league with hopeful, yet tempered, expectation as he did not have elite college production nor workout metrics. He also looked clunky on tape during team drills during the offseason, but Metcalf put those doubts to rest early in his career with lines of 6/68 and 7/75 in Weeks 3 and 4. D.K. continued to produce throughout the season, flashing WR2 upside with a 24.3 point outing in Week 8 then scoring 2 TDs the following week. Metcalf’s target share, catch rate and air yards are all positive indicators of future production and success. In terms of situation, Metcalf finds himself in probably the most stable one while being tied to an elite QB in Wilson. Metcalf is also shaping up as the Seahawk’s #1 passing option with his size and speed.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ✅✅
Final Grade – ?

Parris Campbell – Campbell has the draft capital to support our notions that he is a talented and promising player. But due to his failure to stay healthy and ultimately get on the playing field, his evaluation is incomplete at this time.

Talent – ❔
Situation – ❔
Final Grade – ❔

Terry McLaurin – F1 checked all of the boxes in the rookie evaluation process: production, opportunity, playmaking, reliability, and consistency. The numbers speak for themselves as McLaurin ranked near or at the top in essentially of the categories above. On the other hand, the red flags with McLaurin are the Washington offense (quarterback, offensive line, coaching) and the real possibility that the Redskins add another WR in the draft or free agency to soak up targets. The team desperately needs playmakers. Haskins struggled and failed to resemble the franchise QB that he was drafted to be. Even though McLaurin and Haskins have the OSU connection, none of that matter if Haskins can’t give his teammate catchable targets. McLaurin is a very talented player with the potential to be a WR1 if Washington can figure things out. As frustrating as it is, we just need to wait and hope for the best.

Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ?

Marquise Brown – Hollywood had a respectable rookie season from a utilization standpoint (strong target share and HOG rate), but left some to be desired in the productivity categories. Battling back from a Lisfranc injury, Brown missed a number of games that affected his production. On the other hand, Brown was targeted often by MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and consistently secured the balls thrown his way. High utilization in a high-powered offense led by a dynamic playmaker in Lamar Jackson has all the makings of a “Hollywood” success story.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ✅✅
Final Grade – ?

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Running Backs

Chalk

December 23, 2019

Note: These statistics are current as of December 23, 2019 (before Week 17 games).

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Quarterbacks

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Wide Receivers

The 2019 running back class doesn’t hold a candle to the incoming class but there were four RBs that each had a legitimate case to be NFL starters:

Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills

Each of them had their own question marks along with the potential for NFL success and the debates raged on during the offseason. So how did they fare after year 1? Let’s look at objective statistics and consider their future dynasty outlooks.

Rushing

Josh Jacobs led the pack, starting from Week 1 and never looked back. Running behind a top 3 offensive line per Football Outsiders, the Alabama product churned out 1,150 yards on the ground (4.8 ypc). ?

David Montgomery came in 2nd with 776 yards (3.5 ypc) behind the 31st ranked offensive line.

Devin Singletary was 3rd among these running backs with 775 yards (5.1 ypc) with the 12th ranked offensive line.

Miles Sanders ran for 766 yards (4.5 ypc) behind the 14th ranked offensive line.

Jacobs was the most prolific on the ground, but Singletary was the most efficient as he made the most out of his limited usage.

Receiving

Sanders caught 47 passes for 510 receiving yards. ?

Singletary posted 29 receptions for 194 receiving yards.

The Bears rookie RB was touted as being a strong pass-catcher but Tarik Cohen’s presence limited Montgomery to 25 catches for 185 receiving yards.

Jacobs did not see much work in the passing game for Oakland for 20 receptions for 166 receiving yards.

The Eagles back was in a class of his own when it came to receiving work, more than doubling any other rookie RB’s receiving production.

Total Scrimmage Yards

Jacobs put up an astonishing 1,316 yards on 262 touches, even though he missed 2 games. This was good for 5 yards per touch. ?

Sanders posted 1,276 total scrimmage yards on 217 touches, an average of 5.6 yards per touch. ?

“Motor” Singletary produced 969 yards on only 180 touches (5.4 yards per touch), as he started off with the least opportunity share to start the season.

Montgomery only mustered up 961 yards from scrimmage on 244 total touches for a disappointing 3.9 yards per touch.

Aside from Montgomery, each of the 2019 rookie running backs were able to produce respectable efficiency metrics when their numbers were called.

Touchdowns

Jacobs scored 7 times on the ground, but did not catch any passes in the end zone. ?

Sanders had 4 rush TDs and 2 receiving TDs for a total of 6.

Montgomery had 5 rushing TDs and caught a pass for a score.

With 2 rushing and 2 receiving TDs, Singletary totaled 4 scores in 2019.

Fumbles

Jacobs had only 1 fumble despite touching the rock 262 times. ✊

Sanders and Montgomery both had 2 fumbles but Monty touched the ball 27 more times.

Singletary may have only lost the ball once, but fumbled 4 times on only 151 carries. Sanders had the fumbling question marks during the rookie evaluation process, but Singletary was the one with ball security issues in year 1.

Missed Games/Injuries

Sanders and Montgomery both remained relatively healthy all season and did not miss any games. ⚕️

Singletary missed three games due to a hamstring injury early in the season (Weeks 3-5).

Jacobs missed two games due to a shoulder injury, including Championship Week 16.

Draft Capital

Josh Jacobs has the highest draft capital as he was a first round pick by the Oakland Raiders (24th overall) with the determination to make him the lead dog from day 1. ?

Miles Sanders was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles with the 53rd overall pick in the second round.

The Chicago Bears selected David Montgomery in the third round with the 73rd overall pick.

Devin Singletary went one pick after Montgomery to the Buffalo Bills with the 74th overall pick.

Fantasy Points Scored (PPR)

Miles Sanders finishes as the top rookie RB with 210.6 points (14 ppg), good for RB13 in PPR formats. ?

Jacobs ranks as the RB19 with 191.6 points (14.7 ppg).

Montgomery finishes as RB24 with 153.1 points (10.2 ppg).

Singletary posted 142.1 points (12.9 ppg) to finish as the RB28.

Grades

* This is only a one-year sample size, but we can extract some information from what we’ve seen and make adjustments this offseason.

Josh Jacobs– Strong performer with potential upside for elite production if he can get the passing work. The main concern around the (likely) Offensive Rookie of the Year remains his durability and ability to play a full 16 games. The Raiders also have several question marks, including at the QB position and a lack of receiving weapons. The Oakland offensive line was a top-ranked unit in 2019 but Richie Incognito, the 15th ranked offensive lineman by PFF, hits free agency. And even though Incognito is known for his pass blocking prowess, he was a critical part of the Raiders’ success at the line of scrimmage. Jalen Richard, who took most of the third-down work, also hits unrestricted free agency this offseason. If Richard departs, then Jacobs may be asked to step up in pass protection and take a true workhorse role in 2020. If everything falls into place, Jacobs has top 5 RB potential is well within his range of outcomes.

Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?

Miles Sanders – League-winning upside was unlocked in his rookie year, vaulting him up dynasty rankings and cementing him as this year’s value pick when it comes to rookie RBs. He has continued to improve in pass protection and running between the tackles on an offense that was mediocre at best. The Eagles lacked receivers which likely helped Sanders see more targets, but regardless his playmaking ability was on full display this season. On the downside, the Eagles rookie had trouble running between the tackles early in the season, often missing wide-open gaps and missing opportunities for chunk gains. Sanders’ ability to hold onto the ball has been questioned and he ended up fumbling twice this season. But as the season wore on and his opportunities increased, Sanders stepped up and made plays week in and week out and he did not fumble after his midseason mishaps. Although it remains to be seen, Sanders has earned his right to be the incumbent 3-down workhorse for the Eagles heading into 2020. With draft capital, creative usage and an improved offense working in his favor, Sanders will be a high-end RB2 heading into next season with the top 10 RB upside.

Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ✅✅
Final Grade – ?

David Montgomery – Lack of speed, burst, and overall game-breaking ability was considered (especially by the analytics community) to be an indictment to his chances at NFL success and 2019 only supported these notions. Monty had only one game over 100 scrimmage yards. The Bears look like they have no idea what they’re doing in the front office or from the sidelines when it comes to offense. Chicago has so much invested in the average-at-best Mitchell Trubisky that bailing on him might not be an option even if Cam Newton becomes available this offseason. Then there the questions with the 31st ranked offensive line and Matt Nagy’s questionable playcalling. Montgomery is a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 in 2020 and will likely be stuck in the top 30 conversation for the foreseeable future with Tarik Cohen, and even Anthony Miller, limiting pass-catching upside. In fact, I do not like his long-term outlook given that by the time Chicago figures things out, Montgomery will have wasted 3-5 years in a bad situation only to face a regime change and rebuild. If you can sell Montgomery for a late 2020 1st, you pull the trigger immediately.

Talent ❔
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ?

Devin Singletary – A non-stop “motor” and ability to keep his legs churning to grind through tackles looks to be the perfect complement to the Bills’ Josh Allen. Although Singletary was stuck in neutral behind the ageless Frank Gore, it looks as though the Florida Atlantic alum will be in the driver’s seat heading into next season. The Bills are making the playoffs for the 2nd time in three years and the future is starting to brighten up for the Bills Mafia. With the team trending up and the Patriots looking more mortal than ever, the Bills will likely look to add to their offensive line and receiving personnel which will take pressure off the front and giving Singletary more room to charge downhill. Singletary is a low-end RB2 with promise, but his lack of receiving work currently caps his ceiling.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ❔
Final Grade – ?

Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 16)

Michael Reedy

December 19, 2019

Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 16)

If you are playing in a fantasy football championship… Congratulations, I hope there is money involved. It’s been a long, grueling season and as important as this week is, we will look at who I think will help you win the ‘ship and who may cause you to go into the off-season brokenhearted. So here we go…

Quarterbacks

? Money Makers

Ryan Fitzpatrick – The Bengals are the 9th worst team against the QB position. And although Cincinnati has defended against Quarterbacks fairly well over the last 4 weeks (opposing teams have averaged less than 200 passing yards and scored 3 total pass TDs against the Bengals in that span), but the Bengals also didn’t play a gunslinger like ‘Fitzmagic’ in any of those games. Fitz threw the ball 41 times last week against the Giants and now welcomes back his surprising breakout WR, Devante Parker. The journeyman QB led the Dolphins in rushing yards with 8 carries for 65 yards last week, which is indicative of a solid floor. Expect a big game from Fitzpatrick if you are streaming your way to the championship.

Philip Rivers – Over the past month, the Raiders have been scorched by opposing QBs as Oakland has allowed nearly 24 points per game to the position. Darnold and Tannehill both went for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns each when they faced off against the Raiders. Rivers is coming off another volume-heavy game where he threw the ball 39 times in Week 15. Add in the heated rivalry between the two franchises and it’s very feasible to predict a wild west shootout. In terms of streaming options, Rivers is a good one this week.

Ryan Tannehill – The Titans signal-caller has been playing at a high-level since taking over as the starter. In fact, since week 7, Tannehill has only one game in which he has not thrown for multiple touchdowns. One. Tennessee is matched up against the Saints who are coming off a prime time dismantling of the Indianapolis Colts as they completely shut down Brissett and the passing game. But New Orleans has also given up 300+ passing yards in three out of the last four games while allowing teams to score multiple passing touchdowns. Tannehill is simply getting it done and is on 34% of teams playing in championships on ESPN

Other quarterbacks I like in Week 16: Minshew, Dalton and Haskins

? Heart Breakers

Jimmy Garoppolo – Jimmy G has put up a meager 200 passing yards or less with a single touchdown in two out of the past three weeks (15 completion for 165 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens in Week 13 and 22 completions for 200 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta in Week 15). The 49ers are still a strong team out in the West but they are predicated on tough defense and running the ball with their multitude of backs. Now San Francisco faces a hot Rams team whose defense has only allowed one quarterback to score over 18 points over the last 10 weeks. Garoppolo has been volatile as of late and this week is no different.

Jared Goff – The counterpart to Jimmy G this week (Goff) is coming off of three weeks of wonderful play and that may make you think he is startable in fantasy championships. This is one of those trap plays if you ask me. In their last meeting, Goff completed 13 passes for 78 yards and didn’t score. In fact, he scored 1.12 points in standard formats that week. Prior to his three weeks of great play were three weeks of horrendous play where he did not top 10 fantasy points against the likes of the Ravens, Steelers and Bears. The 49ers are in this class of defenses so expect Goof to struggle early and often even with Richard Sherman banged up.

Running Backs

? Money Makers

Saquon Barkley – Barkley has been a bust for his standards as he is currently RB17 in PPR. Last week Barkley put up 112 yards and 2 TDs and this week he plays the Redskins who are the 7th worst team against the run. Washington has also been torched in recent weeks by Aaron Jones and Miles Sanders so the path to a big day is there. Daniel Jones is expected to be back under center for the Giants, but the rookie will be fresh off a high ankle sprain so New York will likely lean on the run. You want to fire Barkley up if you own him, he is also a nice play in DFS.

Marlon Mack – Mack is healthy and he’s playing against the worst run defense in the league. Mack is coming off a major letdown game against the Saints but he will get volume this week as the Panthers will be trotting out rookie Will Grier for the first time. The game script should be in Indy’s favor and Carolina gives up an average of 123 rushing yards and 1.6 rush TDs per game. Mack is a phenomenal flex play if you have been looking to plug him.

Other running backs set to make some money this week are Drake, Mixon and Lindsay

? Heart Breakers

Devin Singletary – Singletary is going up against the best run defense in the league in this matchup against the Patriots. Last week, Singletary had 21 carries for 87 yards for a mediocre outing against the Steelers. New England gives up and an average of 81 yards per game so if you look at the tea leaves, Singletary is lining up for a 80 yard day with the possibility of a couple of catches making a low-end RB3/flex play.

Derrick Henry – Henry is recovered from his hamstring injury and played last week against Houston rushing for 86 yards on 21 carries. But the Saints are the 5th best team against the run giving up only 65 yards per game and they just shut down the aforementioned Mack. This is a week where you can fully expect Tannehill to air it out to keep pace with Brees and the high octane Saints offense. Henry isn’t a bad RB2 play but you will need to temper expectations and hope for a score.

Wide Receivers

? Money Makers

Courtland Sutton – Last week I had him has a Breaker and this week against the Lions I have him as a Maker. Sutton tends to get peppered with targets no matter who is under center for the Broncos. Sutton has seen 7 or more targets in all but one game this season and saw 10 last week. The Lions happen to be the 3rd worst defense at defending against the pass, giving up an average of 13 receptions and 131 yards per game to the wide receiver position. Sutton is looking like a fantastic play in Week 16.

Terry McLaurin – F1 finds himself in the same exact spot I had Amendola last week. You questioned then and you may question now. But please hear me out on this one. McLaurin has scored in two consecutive weeks, seemingly finding his OSU groove with Haskins. In Week 15, McLaurin had 5 receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles. Like Philadelphia, the Giants are not so good against wide receivers, as they watched Davante Parker run past them for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns last week.

Other wide receivers that will shake their money makers for week 15 – Lockett, Metcalf, Miller, and Conley

? Heart Breakers

Julian Edelman – Edelman has been reeling as of late with a total of 6 catches for 35 yards over the past 2 weeks while receiving TDs are being siphoned by Harry and White. The Bills secondary led by Tre’davious White rank in the top four against wide receivers and they typically only give up about 14 points to the slot, which happens to be where Edelman plays. The Patriots will need to look elsewhere to move the ball against the Bills, likely grinding it down with the run and short screens to Michel and White.

Cooper Kupp – For a player who started off so hot, Kupp was been an utter disappointment for lack of a better word. The Rams are continuing to play a different brand of football than before and Kupp has suffered as a result. The Niners are the second best defense against wide receivers and Kupp could only muster 4 receptions for 17 yards in the Week 4 against San Francisco.

Tight Ends

? Money Makers

Jacob Hollister – Hollister hasn’t scored since Week 10 and his target share was off last week. But he is still in an every-down role and a favorite red zone target of Russ. With the Cardinals on tap, Hollister has the opportunity to get back on track just in time for the Seahawks playoff run. Giving up 6 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown on average per week to tight ends is just what the doctor ordered to make you some money.

Hunter Henry – Henry is coming off a lackluster performance last week which included a fumble. Week 16 presents a nice bounce-back spot for Henry as the Raiders are the third worst defense against the tight end position. Looking at how much production Oakland has given up to TEs in the recent weeks, including scores to the position almost every week, Henry sports a nice floor with a strong possibility of scoring.

? Heart Breakers

Jack Doyle – The Colts TE not been catching the ball the last two weeks (2 catches each week) even with Eric Ebron going to IR and Carolina is the third best defense against tight ends. The game script will likely favor the Colts who will look to pound the rock through Mack (see above). Doyle projects as a low-end TE1 this week but a shaky floor and limited ceiling.

Other Tight Ends that will break you heart and kill your championship dreams: Njoku, Gesicki, and Jonnu Smith

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