This week on “The Undrafted”, a fantasy football podcast focusing on dynasty game theory, Scott (@DynoGameTheory) has Travis Seel (@TSeel14), co-creator of True North Fantasy Football, on as a guest. Trav and Scott talk about some deeper TE targets not named Tim Tebow, the power of Aaron Rodgers man bun, and how Scott’s pre-season prediction for the Patriots is looking after Week 1. Tune in or be tuned out.
Flexing (Fantasy Football 2021 – Week 2)
Are you looking for the perfect flex to put into your lineup? Do not worry, as I have you covered with the top-five flex plays each week. The formula is simple. I look at running backs and wide receivers starting with the RB25/WR25 and dig deeper. I use FantasyPros ADP and its PPR.
Running Backs
James White
We saw what White did last week against the Jets when he caught six passes for 49 yards and finished as the RB25. Now, White has a tastier match-up with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville allowed four receptions for 24 yards and a touchdown to the Houston Texans running backs on eight targets.
AJ Dillon
The Packers cleared the road for Dillon when they released Jamaal Williams. Expect Dillon to fill that role and perhaps even more. Last week, he got four carries, and Aaron Jones received five. Dillon also received two targets and caught a pass. None of these numbers are representative of the Packers offense. Expect a heavier role for all running backs against the Lions. The 49ers ran on them for a total of 131 yards, two scores on 28 carries.
Latavius Murray
The running back in Baltimore is a tricky one. Not only have they rotated out their backs over the last few seasons, but things haven’t changed even though JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards are lost for the year. The Ravens went out and brought in Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, and Le’Veon Bell. They also have Ty’Son Williams. Murray out-carried Williams and Murray just signed on September 10th. Williams seems to be the big-play guy. The one you want to get into space while Murray is carrying the heavier load. What is missing is what role Bell will have? He should be minimal, and Murray will be relied on. The Chiefs didn’t support the run very well and gave up 153 yards to the Browns.
Wide Receivers
Jarvis Landry
He led the wide receivers in receptions and tied for targets. He caught all five of them for 71 yards. Seems as those are typical numbers for the annual 80+ receptions wide receiver. Now, he has the Houston Texans, and they gave up 319 yards to rookie Trevor Lawrence. Landry may not have the ceiling you will want out of the starters, but he gives you a safe floor at your flex spot.
Nelson Agholor
Agholor has a reputation for dropping passes, but many don’t know that he has been a top-35 WR in two of the last three seasons. Against a tough defense in Miami, Agholor caught five of seven targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. He now has the Jets, who allowed six receptions for 80 yards to DJ Moore and a 57-yard TD to Robby Anderson.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
There won’t be many weeks I recommend putting MVS in your lineup. Still, it’s nearly automatic when the Packers face the Lions. Interestingly, the deep threat that Valdes-Scantling is caught three passes for 17-yards against the Saints. Surprisingly, he didn’t drop eight of those eight targets. Green Bay’s offense was off-sync against New Orleans. Still, the Packers should rebound against the Lions, especially since DB Jeff Okudah is out for the season with a torn Achilles.
Tim Patrick
Unfortunately, Jerry Jeudy suffered an injury and will be out for several weeks. Patrick was active last week against a good secondary of the New York Giants. He recorded four receptions for 39-yards and a touchdown. Now, the Broncos have the Jaguars this week. Expect some fireworks from the deep threat as Jacksonville allowed 291 yards to the Texans wide receivers in Week 1.
Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2021 – Week 2)
Week 1 sure seemed crazy between injuries and players we thought would produce crapping out completely (See Rodgers, Aaron). Even with the insanity it sure feels good to be back, doesn’t it? How does this work? Typically, I am not going to tell you to play anyone that is blatantly obvious here. I may have to add a place where there are guys you should be playing whether I have them in here or not. If you have Patrick Mahomes, play him (unless I have him as a Heart Breaker). Christian McCaffrey? Yes, you probably want him in your lineup as well, without me having to tell you to plug him in. There will be many times I will have a big name as a Heart Breaker for DFS. It doesn’t mean they suck, it means that week there is better value elsewhere.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts
Hurts was amazing against Atlanta in week 1. He ran for 62 yards on 7 carries. He threw for another 264 yards and 3 touchdowns. In Week 2, Hurts gets the Niners team that gave up 338 yards and 3 TDs to Jared Goff.
$6,500 on DraftKings
$7,800 on Fanduel
Jalen Hurts has 25 or more points in 3 out of his 5 games started as an NFL quarterback.
He got yanked from the Washington game.
His rushing floor makes him a borderline elite option and he should be considered as such, not inferior.
— Sam Wagman (@swagman95) September 13, 2021
Tom Brady
I know this one is obvious. He destroyed the Cowboys defense to the tune of 374 yards and 4 touchdowns. But Tommy Boy now gets the Falcons who were utterly destroyed by the above-mentioned Hurts. If you are looking to pay up and stack in DFS, the Bucs (and Tom Brady) are a good place to start.
$6,900 on DraftKings
$8,200 on Fanduel
Tyrod Taylor
Who threw for 291 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Jaguars in Week 1? Who ran for 40 yards on 4 carries? Tygod is back! The Browns were torched by the Chiefs last week and, although it is the Chiefs, this game may have more scoring than we would have originally thought. I know it was the Jaguars, but the Texans moved the ball surprisingly well.
$5,500 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel
Other Quarterbacks for Week 2
Justin Herbert
$6,700 on DraftKings
$7,600 on Fanduel
Teddy Bridgewater
$5,400 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon
People thought he was washed but Gordon had 101 yards, a touchdown as well as 3 receptions for 17 yards against the Giants. In Week 2, MG3 gets to play against a Jaguars team that was scorched 120 yards and 2 touchdowns by the Texans three-headed running back committee.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$5,900 on Fanduel
Melvin Gordon hitting Next Gen Stats hard Week 1:
#1 Fastest ball carrier (21.52 mph)
#1 Rushing yards over expected (64 yard rush)
#7 Longest plays (70 yard rushing TD) pic.twitter.com/0QcFPicjXs— Nick Skrip (@P2WFantasy) September 14, 2021
Najee Harris
Only 1 running back was in on 100% of his team’s snaps during the first week and that was Najee. Unfortunately, Harris disappointed with only 49 total yards against the Bills. The rookie RB gets an opportunity for redemption against the Raiders, who gave up a total of 122 total yards and 2 touchdowns to the Ravens running backs. Expect the rookie to rebound in Week 2.
$6,300 on DraftKings
$6,100 on Fanduel
Kenneth Gainwell
I could say “Eagles running backs” as I like Miles Sanders here this week too. The Niners gave up two top 4 running back scores in the opening week while Gainwell scored on the ground in his debut. Looks for the Eagles to utilize Gainwell in the passing game and him to breakout in Week 2.
$4,000 on DraftKings
$5,000 on Fanduel
Other Running Backs for Week 2
Derrick Henry
$8,300 on DraftKings
$8,000 on Fanduel
Nyheim Hines
$4,700 on DraftKings
$5,100 on Fanduel
Ronald Jones
$4,800 on DraftKings
$5,300 on Fanduel
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams
Yes to both, if you want to stack. The Chargers play the Cowboys who were just scorched by the Bucs passing game. LA’s receiving pair saw 49% percent target share in Week 1 from Herbert. Allen and Williams combined for 17 receptions, 182 yards, and a touchdown. The sky is the limit this week as the Cowboys gave up 279 yards and 3 touchdowns to wide receivers in Week 1.
Keenan Allen
$7,000 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel
Mike Williams
$6,100 on DraftKings
$5,500 on Fanduel
The Chargers lass attack looked pretty funneled today
– Keenan Allen: 13 targets, 9 catches, 100 yards
– Mike Williams: 12 targets, 8 rec, 82 yds, TDJared Cook (8 targets) was the only other player with more than 5
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) September 12, 2021
Ja’Marr Chase
In his first game as a rookie, Chase led the Bengals with 5 receptions, 101 yards, and a TD. For an encore, Chase and the Bengals play a Chicago Bears team that gave up 215 yards and 3 touchdowns to the Rams wide receivers. Chase will feast.
$5,000 on DraftKings
$5,500 on Fanduel
Jarvis Landry
Landry led the Browns wide receivers in targets, receptions, and yards with a line of 5/5/71 as Odell Beckham missed another game. The going gets easier this week against a Texans team that gave up 213 yards and 2 touchdowns to Jaguars wide receivers in Week 1. Landry and the Browns passing game should look good.
$6,300 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel
Other Wide Receivers for Week 2
Tyler Lockett
$7,200 on DraftKings
$7,200 on Fanduel
Brandin Cooks
$5,900 on DraftKings
$6,600 on Fanduel
Tim Patrick
$4,600 on DraftKings
$5,400 on Fanduel
Tight Ends
Jared Cook
I guess I’m pretty high on the Chargers passing game this week. Cook saw 8 targets to which he turned into 5 receptions for 56 yards to open the year. Not only were the Cowboys gashed by Tampa Bay’s wide receivers, Dallas gave up the most fantasy points to tight ends in Week 1. Rob Gronkowski scorched the Cowboys with 8 receptions for 90 yards and 2 TDs. This is the week to play Cook in DFS and redraft.
$3,900 on DraftKings
$5,400 on Fanduel
Rob Gronkowski
Gronk looked like the Gronk of old in Week 1 (see above) and the Falcons just gave up 76 yards and a touchdown to the Eagles tight ends. This was the 6th most fantasy points given up to the position. It’s pretty easy to pick up what I am putting down. Gronk will smash again.
$4,700 on DraftKings
$5,800 on Fanduel
Dallas Goedert
In Week 1, Goedert had 15% target share which got him 4 receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown. In Week 2, Goedert gets to go up against a Niners defense that got torched in week one by TJ Hockenson. Both Goedert and Ertz will have value this week for the Eagles.
$4,600 on DraftKings
$5,800 on Fanduel
Other Tight Ends for Week 2
Austin Hooper
$3,800 on DraftKings
$5,200 on Fanduel
Darren Waller
$7,600 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Zach Ertz
$3,700 on DraftKings
$4,900 on Fanduel
💔 Heart Breakers
Quarterbacks
Sam Darold
Darnold gets the Saints defense in Week 2. This is the same Saints defense that held Aaron Rodgers to 133 yards 2 interceptions and 1 sack in a stunning Week 1 win. I think we can all agree that Darnold is not Rodgers. Unless you have to start him, I would avoid Darnold.
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jimmy looked pretty good in Week 1, he threw for 314 yards and a TD. But this week, Jimmy gets to play against an Eagles team that made matt Ryan look horrible. They held Ryan to 164 yards and no touchdowns. It doesn’t look good for Jimmy in Week 2.
Dak Prescott
Obviously, I don’t expect him to suck. The Chargers only gave up 1 touchdown and 135 yards to the WFT in week 1. Dak will clearly do better than that. He may even produce well. If you have him in season-long you are playing him, but in DFS avoid. Too much chalk here for me.
Running Backs
Myles Gaskin
The stout Bills defense held Najee Harris to 45 yards in Week 1 even though Harris played every snap. Gaskin’s production was so-so in Week 1 against a tough Patriots defense and the Bills are tougher against the run. Gaskin is a no-go in DFS and if you have better options in season-long I would utilize them this week.
James Robinson
You can throw Carlos Hyde here too. There will not be a bounceback for Robinson in week 2. The Broncos held Saquan Barkley to a total of 27 yards on 11 touches in Week 1. I don’t know how much else I have to say here. Don’t play him anywhere.
Mark Ingram
Ingram will be a popular add on the waiver wire this week. He produced well in Week 1, with 85 yards and a touchdown. In Week 2, he gets a Browns defense that held Clyde Edwards-Helaire to a total of 72 yards. That doesn’t sound too bad but CEH has the Chiefs backfield all to himself whereas Ingram is in a three-headed committee. Yuck, yuck, and more yuck here for Week 2.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel
Deebo was amazing in the season opener. But in Week 2, he is up against a defense that held Calvin Ridley to 51 yards. For DFS, don’t bother with Deebo in Week 2. If you have him in season-long you are probably playing him.
Zach Pascal
Another guy people will be added off of waivers after his wonderful Week 1 performance. You know who is really good against defending wide receivers? The Rams are. The Rams gave up a total of 116 yards to the position in Week 1. The Colts will attack this offense with their running backs and not with Pascal.
Corey Davis
Another player that was great in Week 1. Davis had 97 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 1. The Patriots are a little tougher on pass defense than the Panthers, by a little I mean a lot better. Davis is someone who will break some hearts in week 2.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki
Only 2 targets in week 1 for ZERO receptions and ZERO yards. He is up against the Bills in Week 2 and although he can’t perform worse I wouldn’t expect much.
Jonnu Smith
Smith had a decent week 1 with 5 receptions on 5 targets for 42 yards. The Jets only gave up 17 yards to the position in week 1. While Smith is a lot better than Ian Thomas this doesn’t mean he will have a huge day in Week 2. You know the story in season-long you are probably playing him but in DFS stay away.
The Undroppables Playbook | Episode 2
This week on The Undroppables Playbook, Ashley and Michael recap some of the games and injuries from week one of the 2021 NFL season, as well as what players surprised them the most. Ashley revels in the joy of Week One Sammy Watkins, and Michael is fuming in anger because of Urban Meyer’s hate for running back James Robinson.
The Stream Option (Fantasy Football 2021 – Week 2)
While every fantasy manager wants to start their studs, and they definitely should, not every team can roster studs at every position. It is especially difficult to have these every-week studs at QB, TE, and DST due to the scarcity of elite players at those positions, and many managers instead decide to “stream” the position, meaning they pick up a different player each week based on matchup. Here are some of my favorite picks for Week 2…
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater @ Jacksonville
ESPN Rostership: 9.4%
Opposition rank vs QB: 22nd
Despite facing competition from young QB Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater won the starting job at QB for the Broncos this offseason. In just his first game, he lost second-year WR Jerry Jeudy to injury, but Bridgewater still put together a solid performance; he completed 28 of 36 attempts for 264 yards and 2 TDs. Altogether, the journeyman scored 20.46 fantasy points, good for 14th-most on the week.
Going into a matchup against a Jaguars defense that just got shredded by the lowly Texans, it seems fair to expect an even better performance from Bridgewater in Week 2 as his WRs and TEs create matchup problems for a defense with only a few slivers of talent scattered about.
In addition, Bridgewater has a Week 3 matchup against the New York Jets which should also be an exploitable matchup considering their overall lack of talent in the secondary. However, I would recommend waiting to see the Jets’ Week 2 defensive performance, as Robert Saleh’s defensive schemes can make up for some of the lack of talent.
Taylor Heinicke vs New York Giants
ESPN Rostership: 1.2%
Opposition Rank vs QB: 19th
Heinicke is a very bold play in Week 2, as he’s starting for the first time this season on a short week against the rival Giants. However, there’s a real lack of exciting streaming options behind Bridgewater in my opinion. There are things to like about Heinicke: he’s completed 67.6% of his passes in a WFT uniform between last week and a short-lived fill-in last season and he scored 24.84 fantasy points in a wildcard matchup against the Buccaneers last year.
Meanwhile, the opposing Giants have some solid pieces on the defensive side but have lacked cohesion throughout recent years, and Heinicke will attack them through the air with weapons like Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson, and J.D. McKissic as well as with his legs, as Heinicke has proven to be a solid rusher throughout his time filling in for Washington.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook vs Dallas
ESPN Rostership: 36.3%
Opposition Rank vs TE: 32nd
While we can’t judge a defense off just one performance – the Cowboys could not cover Rob Gronkowski last week, especially in the redzone. Meanwhile, Cook commanded a strong role as the main tight end for the Chargers in Week 1. Cook was on the field for 58% of the Chargers’ offensive plays, and he ran a route on 86.1% of the passing plays he was on the field for. He was also utilized both in the slot and even out wide. In addition, Cook saw 8 targets. Altogether, Cook put together a double-digit performance without scoring a touchdown last week. With this in mind, it’s unlikely that Cook flops in Week 2, and he has high-upside if he finds the endzone.
Gerald Everett vs Tennessee
ESPN Rostership: 12.4%
Opposition Rank vs TE: 1st
You can ignore that number 1 ranked defense versus TEs. The Titans played the Cardinals in Week 1, and the Arizona offense just does not utilize the TE in the passing game. Having watched the game, the Titans’ LBs looked very poor in coverage situations, and the Cardinals continuously used Christian Kirk to utilize this advantage.
Everett saw very high usage despite only receiving 2 targets in Week 1, as he was on the field for 72.2% of Seattle’s offensive snaps and 20 of Seattle’s 23 pass attempts. In addition, of those 20 pass plays Everett was on the field for, he ran a route on 85% of them. He was only targeted twice, but he hauled in both targets and salvaged his fantasy day with a score. I expect the Titans to put up more of a fight than the Colts did in Week 1, and Seattle to have a more pass-heavy game-script, resulting in more than 23 pass attempts for Russell Wilson, and more opportunities for Everett to see the ball.
Defenses
Cardinals D/ST vs Minnesota
ESPN Rostership: 17.7%
Opposition Rank vs D/ST: 13th
It’s a little crazy considering some of the poor performances the Cards have put up on defense in the past, but I think Arizona might be worth a long-term add in redraft leagues. They absolutely shut down what many expected to be one of the best offenses in the NFL in the Tennessee Titans last week, and Arizona has time-and-time-again spent draft capital and cap space on the defense in recent years.
This past draft, Arizona spent 4 of their first 5 picks on the defensive side of the ball, including 1st-round LB Zaven Collins. In 2020, they spent 4 of their 6 total picks on defense, including 1st rounder Isaiah Simmons. In addition, Arizona went out in free agency and signed DE J.J. Watt and LB Markus Golden, while re-signing LB Dennis Gardeck and S Chris Banjo. All these additions came with some solid pieces already on the roster, including Buddha Baker, Chandler Jones, and Byron Murphy Jr.
All-in-all, I think this is a defense that has the talent and play-calling to shut down opposing offenses all season, and, as an added bonus, they’ll see two plus matchups in the weeks ahead as they face Minnesota and Jacksonville, who both struggled to protect their respective QBs in Week 1.
Bengals D/ST @ Chicago
ESPN Rostership: 3.6%
Opposition Rank vs D/ST: 27th
The Bengals’ defense may not be amongst the best in the league (especially at cornerback), but they boast a great, roaming free safety in Jessie Bates and a strong defensive line with Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard on the edges. Meanwhile, Bears’ HC Matt Nagy is still seemingly sticking with journeyman Andy Dalton at quarterback despite having Justin Fields waiting in the wings. Meanwhile, the Bears are also down to their fourth-string LT after losing Teven Jenkins in the offseason and losing Jason Peters and Larry Borom in Week 1. I expect the Bengals to generate pressure on Dalton and, in Week 1’s game, Dalton completed just 1 of 5 passes against pressure.