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College Football Round-Up | Week Two

Kyle Larson
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College Football Round-Up | Week Two

I would like to open this week’s round-up with an apology. Unfortunately, I suffered from an illness throughout all of last week and I was unable to write week one’s round-up article. While I’m very disappointed that I didn’t finish the piece, I’m even more excited about writing this one for week two. So, let’s get started covering the most important games of the weekend:

Kansas (1-0) @ No. 17 Coastal Carolina (1-0)

Result: Kansas: 22 – Coastal Carolina: 49

The Lance Leipold era of Kansas football started out strong in Week 1 as the Jayhawks did something they had not been able to do since October 26th, 2019: win a football game. Sure, it was against an FCS opponent, but when you’re quite possibly the worst Power Five football program in the nation, you take what you can get. Sadly for Kansas fans, this week’s scheduling wasn’t as kind as Week 1’s, as the Jayhawks traveled east to take on the Chanticleers, who have lost just one game over their past 14 matchups. Either way, Kansas wouldn’t go down without a fight, as they took a 9-7 lead in the first quarter off the back of a TD by freshman RB Devin Neal. The Chanticleers proved to be too much, however, as they rattled off 21 unanswered points in the 2nd and didn’t look back in the second half, taking a 49-22 win.

Coastal QB Grayson McCall is considered one of the best quarterbacks in the group of five, and he did nothing to hurt his case in this one. McCall finished 17/21 with 245 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, and a rushing TD. Meanwhile, junior RB Reese White led the way on the ground with 102 yards on 14 carries and 3 rushing touchdowns. Last but not least, one of my favorite under-the-radar WR prospects, Jaivon Heiligh, finished with 6 receptions, 122 yards and a score.

On the Kansas side, QB Jason Bean was the main threat to the defense, as he racked up 102 yards on the ground and 2 rushing touchdowns despite a lackluster day through the air.

No. 14 Oregon @ No. 3 Ohio State

Result: Oregon: 35 – Ohio State: 28

While the rest of the top-four took on cupcakes this week, Ohio State was the main draw of the weekend against a ranked Oregon team. In a really back and forth game, it was Oregon that stunned most fans and pundits as they took down the Buckeyes behind a dazzling performance by senior RB C.J. Verdell. Verdell turned 20 carries into 161 yards and 2 TDs, including a 77-yard score. Looking back, Verdell seemed to be one of the top backs in the 2021 class going into last season, but he was never able to get anything going in 2020 and decided to forego the draft. Now, his stock seems to be rising for next year’s draft off the back of two strong performances.

Alongside Verdell, Ducks QB Anthony Brown also put together a strong display, completing 17 of his 35 attempts for 236 yards and 2 scores. Brown really spread the ball around, as no Oregon receiver caught more than 3 balls. Meanwhile, on the opposing side, Ohio State didn’t live up to expectations, but they’ve begun to show their hand as to what talent is going to see the field often. First of all, 4th-year RB Master Teague seems to be almost completely out of the gameplan, as he didn’t see a single touch. Meanwhile, it was Redshirt-Freshman RB Miyan Williams leading the charge with 14 carries for 77 yards and 3 catches for 38 yards. Alongside Williams, the Buckeyes also gave highly-touted freshman RB TreVeyon Henderson a lot of run, as he ran 12 times for 54 yards and a score. At WR, most expected Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to lead the way, as they both had outstanding 2020 seasons and expect to be highly sought after by the NFL following this season, but there were many arguments about which of the Buckeyes WRs would take over the third spot. However, it definitely seems to be sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN), who caught 7 passes for a team-leading 145 yards and 2 scores. Alongside JSN, Olave and Wilson both showed why they deserve their recognition, with both players eclipsing 100 receiving yards.

No. 5 Texas A&M (1-0) @ Colorado (1-0)

Result: Texas A&M: 10 – Colorado: 7

Texas A&M came into this season with high hopes, and many analysts agreed that they should be one of the best teams in the country. However, the Aggies didn’t perform like one of the best teams in the country against an average Colorado team this week. Part of their struggles may have come from QB Haynes King going down with an injury on the second drive. However, backup Zach Calzada had been challenging King for the starting job throughout camp. Calzada didn’t look so good in this game though, as he completed just 18 passes on 38 attempts, gained a paltry 183 yards through the air, and scored just one TD. Meanwhile, the Aggies rushing attack, which is usually the staple of their game, also struggled. Junior Isaiah Spiller, who many expect to be a top RB prospect this offseason, only mustered 20 yards on 8 attempts. However, Spiller did catch 6 passes for 56 yards, including the go-ahead touchdown to win the game. Meanwhile, Spiller’s running mate, sophomore Devon Achane, turned in a good performance; rushing for 50 yards on 9 attempts and catching 3 passes for 24 yards.

On the opposing side, Colorado’s offense also struggled greatly in the passing game, with Brendon Lewis completing just 13 of his 25 attempts and only gaining 89 yards while turning the ball over once. However, Lewis was able to move the ball some on the ground as he gained 76 yards on 9 rushes. Meanwhile, Colorado’s offensive leader Jarek Broussard rushed for 51 yards and the only touchdown for the Buffaloes. Fellow running back Alex Fontenot also added another 39 yards on 12 attempts.

Overall, this has to be a disappointing performance for both squads, as Texas A&M would have liked to dispatch Colorado much more thoroughly and appear to have lost Haynes King until at least mid-October. Meanwhile, Colorado was sniffing a huge upset throughout the game, but they weren’t able to pull out the win. Both squads will need to put together more on offense to pick up more wins throughout the rest of the year.

Toledo (1-0) @ No. 8 Notre Dame (1-0)

Result: Toledo: 29 – Notre Dame: 32

After a week one matchup between Notre Dame and Florida State ended in a close game, many expected both teams to be strong this year. However, it appears that both of these historically good programs are struggling. Florida State lost a nail-biter on the final play against FCS Jacksonville State (who lost 31-0 against UAB in week 1), and Notre Dame struggled against MAC opponent Toledo. Honestly, there’s not much to highlight in terms of individual performances for Notre Dame in what was a very lackluster performance, but a short-lived Jack Coan injury gave us our first look at live-game action for four-star freshman QB Tyler Buchner. Buchner made an incredibly compelling case that he should be the starter, as he went 3 for 3 passing, gaining 78 passing yards, and a score alongside 68 rushing yards on 7 attempts. Personally, Buchner was my second-ranked QB in the freshman class behind Quinn Ewers, and I think he definitely gives the Fighting Irish a much better chance to win than the journeyman Coan.

No. 10 Iowa @ No. 9 Iowa State

Result: Iowa: 27 – Iowa St: 17

The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy saw two top-10 teams face each other in one of the most anticipated games of the weekend. However, the matchup didn’t quite live up to expectations. Iowa State stars Brock Purdy and Breece Hall both struggled to get the ball moving, as Hall completed 13 of 27 pass attempts for 138 yards and threw three interceptions. Even as a fourth-year starter, Purdy was benched for redshirt-freshman Hunter Dekkers because of his poor play. Meanwhile, the expected RB1 of the 2022 class, Breece Hall, also performed poorly, carrying the ball 16 times for just 69 yards, 1 TD, and a lost fumble, which was recovered for an Iowa touchdown.

Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes also struggled to move the ball, as starting QB Spencer Petras went 11/21 for 106 yards and standout RB Tyler Goodson rushed 21 times for just 55 yards. However, the Iowa defense was the real star of this matchup, as they scored a touchdown on a fumble recovery, and their three interceptions led to 13 points for their offense.

It was a stunning performance for an Iowa State offense that was expected to be amongst the top offensive teams in the country. QB Brock Purdy was once considered a strong contender to become an early draft pick early on in his career. However, those dreams appear to have been dashed as he chose to forego the draft last season and now he’s in danger of losing his spot for the Cyclones.

Stanford (0-1) @ No. 14 USC (1-0)

Result:Stanford: 42 – USC: 28

One of three unranked teams to upset ranked teams this week, Stanford had themselves a day in Los Angeles. Sophomore QB Tanner McKee completed 16 of 23 passes for 234 yards and 2 TDs while junior RB Nathaniel Peat put in a surprise performance on the ground with 115 yards on just 6 attempts, including an 87-yard score. Meanwhile, Stanford’s lead running back, Austin Jones, couldn’t get off the ground against the Trojan defense – as he ran 10 times and gained just 13 yards.

Similar to Jones, the entire USC team didn’t seem to get off the ground in this one. In fact, the very first play of the game saw the Trojan kicker get ejected for targeting, and it all went downhill from there. Highly-touted, junior QB Kedon Slovis had a tough go against the Cardinal defense as he went 27/42 for 223 yards, a TD, and a pick-6. Surprisingly, as a whole, the Trojans seemed to have no issue moving the ball, as they gained 408 yards of total offense including 94 yards on the ground for senior RB Vavae Malepeai. However, they had some long drives fizzle out in the red zone and could not stop Stanford’s offensive attack. All in all, the upset caused shockwaves throughout the Trojan program, as the university decided to move on from head coach Clay Helton just two games into the season. Now, USC may be in rebuild-mode throughout the rest of the season as they search for a new head man.

No. 15 Texas (1-0) @ Arkansas (1-0)

Result: Texas: 21 – Arkansas: 40

Arkansas HC Sam Pittman just notched another statement win for the Razorbacks program. After former HC Chad Morris’ two-year tenure with the Hogs ended in just four wins, Pittman has already surpassed Morris’ win total in just 12 games as head man. The former Georgia offensive line coach came as a surprise to many when he was named head coach, but he definitely has everyone’s attention now. Pittman’s defense stymied Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns time and time again in this game, as superstar RB Bijan Robinson managed just 3.6 yards per attempt on 19 carries and starting QB Hudson Card went 8/15 thru the air and managed just 13 yards on 8 rushing attempts, resulting in him getting pulled for backup Casey Thompson (since named starter for next week). Thompson faired better statistically, completing 5 of 8 passes for 57 yards, rushing for 44 yards on 7 attempts, and running in two TDs in just two drives. However, all of Thompson’s production came late in the game after Arkansas had already secured a 33-7 lead.

Meanwhile, the Razorbacks boasted a dynamic rushing attack, as 4 different running backs (and QB K.J. Jefferson) all eclipsed 40 rushing yards, and the team averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. With this exceptional ground performance, Jefferson only passed the ball 19 times, and completed 14 of his attempts, gaining 138 yards thru the air. Treylon Burks, my current WR1 for 2022, caught 5 passes for just 37 yards, but the Hogs didn’t need him to do much in this one.

No. 21 Utah (1-0) @ BYU (1-0)

Result: Utah: 17 – BYU: 26

It seemed as though the Cougars captured lightning in a bottle last season with Zach Wilson at the helm. However, head coach Kalani Sitake seems to have built something that’s going to last. Redshirt-Sophomore QB Jaren Hall hasn’t wilted under the pressure of following up Wilson, and is putting together a strong season thus far. In this one, Hall completed 18 of 30 attempts for 149 yards and 3 touchdowns while adding 92 yards on the ground on 8 attempts. Up against a tough Utah defense, Hall continually made plays while evading pressure and showcased an impressive ability to throw on the run. Meanwhile, star RB Tyler Allgeier saw some tough sledding against the tough Utes defensive line, but he still managed 102 yards on 27 attempts.

Meanwhile, former Baylor star QB Charlie Brewer put up a decent showing for the Utes, completing 15 of 26 attempts for 147 yards, a TD, and an INT. However, the most impressive Utah performance came from RB Micah Bernard, who rushed 12 times for 146 yards and a score.

Overall, this rendition of the Holy War turned out to be a defensive struggle and the Cougars were able to put the game away with a stifling 35:26 time of possession, limiting the Utes to just 10 drives.

Notable Individual Performances

Passing

Western Kentucky QB Bailey Zappe @ Army (L 35-38): 28/40, 435 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Zappe came into the Hilltoppers program as a transfer, joining from FCS Houston Baptist alongside his former coach, Zach Kittley, and WRs Jerreth and Josh Sterns. Kittley runs a very pass-happy, air raid offense, and the Hilltoppers are likely to always be among the leaders in passing yardage with both Kittley and Zappe in the fold.

Memphis Freshman QB Seth Henigan @ Arkansas St (W 55-50): 22/33, 417 yards, 5 TDs

Henigan has filled in admirably for injured Arizona transfer Grant Gunnell. So admirably, in fact, that this might be his job to lose now. He’s pieced together two strong, back-to-back performances and really given head coach Ryan Silverfield something to think about before Gunnell returns in the coming weeks.

Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong vs Illinois (W 42-14): 27/36, 405 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT

Armstrong is catapulting himself into the draft conversation after taking the Cavaliers’ starting job in 2020. Last season, Armstrong gained 235 passing yards and 61 rushing yards per game, but completed just 58.6% of his 268 pass attempts. This year, Armstrong has focused on the passing game – completing 71.6% of his 67 attempts through 2 games with 7 TDs and just 1 INT.

Rushing

Kentucky RB Chris Rodriguez Jr vs Missouri (W 35-28): 27 carries, 206 yards, 3 TDs

Rodriguez was PFF’s second-highest graded RB in 2020 (behind only Javonte Williams) despite only averaging 13.2 rush attempts per game. This year, however, Kentucky has leaned heavily on Rodriguez over their first two games, and he hasn’t let them down. After starting the season with a 125-yard performance against Louisiana-Monroe, he put together yet another strong performance against Missouri this week. Rodriguez is definitely making a name for himself and will likely be able to put himself into draft consideration before the season is over. However, Rodriguez hasn’t proven himself to be a capable receiver yet in his career, with just 5 catches across three seasons of action.

TCU RB Zach Evans vs California (W 34-32): 22 carries, 190 yards, 1 TD

Evans is already one of the top names at the RB position in what is shaping up to be a loaded 2023 NFL draft class. He didn’t get much run in the Horned Frogs’ opener against Duquesne, but he could not be stopped by the Golden Bears’ defense in week 2.

Memphis RB Brandon Thomas @ Arkansas State (W 55-50): 18 carries, 191 yards, 2 TDs

Memphis has been churning out NFL RBs in recent years, with players like Antonio Gibson and Kenneth Gainwell playing on Sundays. Sophomore Brandon Thomas may be up next. He’s now averaging 9.9 yards per attempt after 2 games with the Tigers and has 3 rushing TDs as well. However, Nicholls St and Arkansas St definitely aren’t known for their defenses. Thomas will definitely be one to watch going forward as the Tigers host SEC-opponent Mississippi State next Saturday.

Receiving

Memphis WR Calvin Austin III @ Arkansas State (W 55-50): 6 receptions, 239 yards, 3 TDs

The Tigers offense as a whole was fantastic on Saturday and Austin was no exception. He averaged 39.8 yards per reception and scored on half of his catches. However, similarly to the aforementioned Thomas, Austin still needs to prove his mettle against better defenses before viewers get too excited.

Boise State WR Khalil Shakir vs UTEP (W 54-13): 7 receptions, 166 yards

Shakir had one of the best statistical seasons at WR in 2020, and he hasn’t slowed down this year. He’s already racked up 12 receptions with 257 yards and 2 scores across the Broncos’ first two games. Boise has a tough schedule this year, as they’ve already faced UCF and face both Oklahoma State and BYU in the coming weeks. Shakir will have plenty of opportunities to prove to NFL scouts that he’s worth a draft pick.

Utah State WR Deven Thompkins vs North Dakota (W 48-24): 8 receptions, 172 yards, 1 TD

Thompkins has had a solid career for the Aggies thus far, starting at WR since his sophomore season. As a senior this year, Thompkins is averaging 8 catches a game and 16.6 yards per reception, and his team is 2-0 with an upset win against Washington State. Thompkins is a sneaky draft prospect because of the size of his university and his own size, as he stands at just 5’8, 155 lbs.

That’s it for Week 2, see you next week as we look to break down Week 3 of college football. In the meantime, you can follow Kyle for more college and Devy takes at @KL_Fantasy on Twitter.

Under Review | Elijah Mitchell

Tommy Mo
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Under Review | Elijah Mitchell

Elijah Mitchell was the hot waiver wire add for Week 1. Did you blow your FAAB/waiver priority for nothing? Or is Elijah the real deal. Tommy Mo brings back Under Review to see what we should expect from Elijah as a player.

UNtangling the Waiver Wire (Fantasy Football 2021 – Week 2)

Michael Reedy
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UNtangling the Waiver Wire (Fantasy Football 2021 – Week 2)

How much pain did you feel when Wet Paper Mostert went down, or maybe when Jeudy Jeudy Jeudy found dirt instead of pay dirt? Well, I am here to help you get some players into your lineup for next week to cover these injuries.

I love the waiver wire, I always have.  It is the place where you find things that nobody wanted but can easily become a gem in your lineup. Pick up the pieces out there and plug them in properly to make your lineup have success.

NOTE: If you are new around here this column refers to players rostered in under 50% of Yahoo, ESPN, and Sleeper Leagues.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff

57 attempts, 38 completions for 338 yards, and 3 touchdowns make Goff my top add at quarterback. He utilized his running backs and tight end well and will be throwing a lot all season.

7% rostered on Yahoo
5% rostered on ESPN
4% rostered on Sleeper
15% Free Agent Budget

NOTE: When someone throws the ball 57 times you need to seriously consider adding him. That sheer volume makes him my top add at QB.

Jameis Winston

When you throw for 5 touchdowns in Week 1 with 148 yards passing and another 37 yards rushing you become a player people that may be quarterback-needy should add.

44% rostered on Yahoo
26% rostered on ESPN
49% rostered on Sleeper
12% Free Agent Budget

Tyrod Taylor

40 yards rushing, 291 yards passing, and 4 touchdowns. Tyrod may be Tygod again after this. Something that surprised a lot of people, including me.

4% rostered on Yahoo
4% rostered on ESPN
11% rostered on Sleeper
5% Free Agent Budget

Other quarterbacks to consider: Mac Jones, Teddy Bridgewater

Running Backs

Elijah Mitchell

With Sermon a healthy scratch, Mitchell had 104 yards and a touchdown. If you the guy who appears to be leading this backfield in touches moving forward Mitchell appears to be that guy.

8% rostered on Yahoo
2% on ESPN
6% on Sleeper
20% Free Agent Budget

James White

White had 6 receptions on 7 targets for 49 yards and added another 12 yards rushing.  If you are playing in PPR I would add him over Mitchell.

33% rostered on Yahoo
47% on ESPN
41% on Sleeper
8% Free Agent Budget

Other running backs to consider: Carlos Hyde, Cordarrelle Patterson, James Hasty, Mark Ingram

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk

5 targets for 5 receptions yielding 70 yards and 2 touchdowns tells me we need to add him. While we were all watching Rondale Moore Kirk took off.

13% rostered on Yahoo
3.6% on ESPN
20% on Sleeper
5% Free Agent Budget

Sterling Shepard

There is a guy I have rostered on my bench on many teams and his name is Sterling Shepard. 9 targets 7 receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown in week one have me VERY excited about my late round draft pick. Add him now.

39% rostered on Yahoo
25% on ESPN
41% on Sleeper
5% Free Agent Budget

Nelson Agholor

All the work Nelson has put in with Mac Jones one on one during the offseason has paid off. 7 targets for 5 receptions 72 yards and a touchdown.

33% rostered on Yahoo
30% on ESPN
45% on Sleeper
5% Free Agent Budget

Other wide receivers to consider: Zach Pascal, Tim Patrick, Danny Amendola and Cole Beasley

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson

Eligible as a tight end and wide receiver on Yahoo and Sleeper, I figured I would include him here. He wasn’t heavily targeted by Winston with only 3 targets but he turned those into 3 catches for 21 yards and 2 touchdowns.

10% rostered on Yahoo
1% on ESPN
6% on Sleeper
2% Free Agent Budget

James O’Shaughnessy

Who?  Who the hell is this guy? In the barren desert that is tight end, James O saw 8 targets for 6 receptions and 48 yards. This means he is playable and playable is what we want and he is ZERO percent rostered across the board.

0% rostered on Yahoo
0% on ESPN
0% rostered on Sleeper
1% Free Agent Budget

Other tight ends to consider: Dalton Schultz and Jared Cook

Thanks for checking out our waiver wire column. For more great content from the Undroppables, follow us on Twitter, follow @MikeReedyFF for more great content, and visit back soon for Mike’s weekly Money Makers and Heart Breakers

 

2022 NFL Draft Preview | Tight Ends

Kyle Larson
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2022 NFL Draft Preview | Tight Ends

1. Jalen Wydermyer – Texas A&M

Wydermyer has been one of the most productive tight ends in the nation recently, and he has the prototypical build for the position at 6’5″, 255 lbs. As a true freshman, Wydermyer was overlooked on the Aggies roster as A&M had also brought in the number 1 tight end recruit in the nation in Baylor Cupp. Unfortunately for Cupp, the highly touted TE saw a broken ankle derail his freshman season and Wydermyer stepped up to fill the void. In fact, Wydermyer caught 32 passes for 447 yards and 6 touchdowns as a freshman. Wydermyer followed that performance up with another strong one as a sophomore while Baylor Cupp was once again out for the season. In the truncated 2020 season, Wydermyer caught 46 balls for 506 yards and 6 touchdowns in just 10 games.

2. Trey McBride – Colorado State

Standing in at 6’4″ and weighing 240 lbs with strong hands and solid route-running, McBride is a mismatch for opposing defenses, and his collection of accolades reflects that. McBride has been named to the All-Mountain West team twice in his three year career and was a 2020 PFF Honorable Mention All-American. In fact, his 2020 season was absolutely amazing statistically, despite only playing four games. He racked up 22 receptions, 330 yards, and 4 touchdowns, averaging 15 yards per catch. Digging a little deeper, his receiving yards per team pass attempt was off the charts, as he accounted for 2.69 yards in that category.

In addition, McBride has been a strong blocker over his career, albeit against lower levels of competition, and he should fit the profile of a receiving in-line tight end.

3. Cade Otton – Washington

Another strong, large TE, Otton has good hands and runs his routes well with quick bursts both off the line and out of his breaks. He’s often seen gaining yards after the catch too, both with agility and power. However, Otton isn’t a great blocker yet and he’ll need to add strength for that to be a solid piece of his game.

Across the Huskies’ four games last year, Otton caught 14 passes for 258 yards and 3 touchdowns. Looking forward, Otton will have a massive opportunity to possibly lead the Huskies in receiving in 2021, as 2020’s lead WR, Puka Nacua, transferred to BYU and none of the other receiving options in Seattle have proven anything yet in their careers.

4. Jake Ferguson – Wisconsin

While the Badgers are known for running the ball, they boast a strong tight end this season in senior Jake Ferguson. In seven games last season, Ferguson caught thirty passes for 305 yards and four TDs. While Ferguson’s numbers may not be as impressive as other draft-eligible TE’s in 2022, his lack of statistical prowess likely stems from a low passing output from the Badgers in general. However, Ferguson’s skill on tape is apparent, he easily beats LBs across the middle of the field and creates RAC with strong running ability.

5. Charlie Kolar – Iowa State

A draft-eligible TE in 2021, many expected Kolar to be amongst the top tier at the position last offseason. However, Kolar, alongside QB Brock Purdy, decided to give it one more run at Iowa State. Kolar is strong at the catch-point, with a large catch radius and good hands. He profiles as an in-line TE due to his above-average blocking ability and he’ll likely see a boost to his draft stock because of this. Last season, in Iowa St’s 11 games, Kolar caught 44 passes for 591 yards and 7 TDs. He’ll be a solid prospect next year, but he likely doesn’t possess an elite ceiling.

Names to Watch

Cole Turner – Nevada

At 6’6″, 240 lbs, Turner is physically imposing for opposing defenses and creates mismatches across the field. Despite his size, Turner often plays more like a WR than a TE and is often flexed off of the line by the Wolfpack. He has been a very strong red-zone threat for Nevada, catching nine touchdowns in nine games last season while also adding 605 yards on 49 receptions. Overall, Turner doesn’t project as an amazing all-around TE at the next level. However, Turner may have one of the highest ceilings for strictly fantasy in 2022.

Isaac Rex – BYU

Rex saw a huge uptick in usage alongside Zach Wilson last year after Matt Bushman was lost to a season-ending injury. In 11 games last year, Rex caught 37 passes for 429 yards and tied Kyle Pitts for the most TDs by a TE with 12. In addition to his receiving prowess, Rex is one of the more polished blockers in the class, and unlike other options, Rex profiles as more of an in-line tight end than many others in the class.

Which Contests Should You Enter on PrizePicks?

Brian O'Connell
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Which Contests Should You Enter on PrizePicks?

There are plenty of ways to bet money on the NFL these days. If you’re lucky enough to live in a state where sports betting is legal, there are dozens of sportsbooks. Last NFL season when I was living in Colorado, where sports betting is legal, I was betting on player props every weekend. As a fantasy football player, prop bets are easy to exploit because we focus on individual player statistics. I now find myself in a state where sports betting is not legal but thankfully there is now PrizePicks.

The basis of PrizePicks is fairly simple. Instead of betting on single props, you combine 2-5 props to choose either the over or under on. The payout is different based on how many props you select. Where PrizePicks is unique is their ability to play your bet as a “Power Play” or a “Flex Play”.

A Power Play has to have every pick hit for it to cash whereas a Flex Play does not require every bet to hit to cash. The downside is that a Flex Play does have a lower payout structure. So which is better? Follow along as I dive into the math behind which of these play structures you should be playing.

PrizePicks Power Play

First, it is important to look at a detailed table of all the odds for the Power Play option. Below, I have several important things to look at including the decimal odds swapped with more recognizable American odds, the probability of cashing out, and also the implied odds given based on the decimal odds.

Finally, I also included the expected return on a $10 bet. While it is impossible to get those values from a single bet, it shows how much money you would lose on average based on a random bet.

prizepicks power play odds tableWhile the 5x and 10x payouts sound fantastic, if you’re interested in being a serious bettor the 3x payout of the Pick 2 contests is the way to go. If you’re really interested in playing a Pick 3 contest, Underdog Fantasy offers 6x payouts. On PrizePicks, I would strongly suggest sticking with pick 2 if you’re going to do a Power Play.

The implied odds are interesting for these contests. If implied odds are new to you, it’s calculated by using the American odds. These are the odds the bookmakers give to the bet hitting.

As a basic rule, you want the probability of cashing to be as close to the implied odds as possible. If your odds are greater than the implied odds then that’s a great bet. All of our implied odds are higher than our probability of cashing out so none of them stick out as “must bets”.

Overall, if you’re playing Power Plays, you really should be only playing pick twos. If there are more than 2 props you want to play, I would suggest multiple Pick 2s (I can show you the math behind this if you’re interested, just send me a DM). 

PrizePicks Flex Play

The Flex Play makes betting on PrizePicks very interesting. It is a lower risk/lower reward option that allows you to not hit every single one of your picks and still walk away with money, although sometimes less than your buy-in.

In the table below, you will find the decimal odds converted to American odds, the probability of cashing out, and the expected after a $10 bet. I did not include implied odds since it doesn’t apply to several of these decimals that are below 1x.

prizepicks flex play odds tableThe first thing that pops out is that the expected after $10 bet is the exact same for pick two and Pick 3 contests, which is also the same for the Pick 2 contest for a Power Play. The Pick 4 and Pick 5 options are okay but I would not suggest playing them.

Conclusion

So which contests should you be playing? I calculated the percentage of your picks that would have to be correct for you to break even. The Pick 4 and Flex 4 have the best percentage for being correct. I personally have been playing mostly Power 2s because of only having to have 2 props to play. Power 2s also have a relatively low percentage of correct picks needed to break even. My only recommendation is to not play a Flex 5 consistently because the odds are not favorable in the long term. As a bettor, you should be playing the long game.

Use promo code UND when you make a deposit of $20+ on PrizePicks for a 100% instant match. Plus, we’ll add you to our exclusive Discord.

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