“Upside” is a term you seen thrown around a lot when targeting players in drafts or trades that will return a higher value than what you invested in them. Rookie Road defines upside as, “a player who has the potential to surpass expectations and provide a lot of fantasy value”. These are players that have the potential to outperform their ADP and are currently valued below their projected finish.
This lowered value is often caused by either a lack of opportunities or inefficient use of those opportunities. Whether its their own doing or a situation with the team, there is something capping these players’ potential upside. This can lead to fantasy weeks with a low weekly floor and scattered high ceiling games. With this weekly inconsistency baked into their current value, you can capitalize on acquiring the right upside players.
However, it’s not just about acquiring these players for the right value, it’s also about starting them the right week to maximize on that upside. Since these players can’t be counted on weekly, the strategy becomes when to start them. And this becomes the issue with targeting upside players, especially ones with capped upside. Is it worth targeting these players despite the capped upside? Or should you avoid them for more consistent players? In this article, I’ll examine some capped upside RBs who should be targeted or avoided.
Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones is the perfect example of a locked-in RB1 with capped upside that prevents him from being ranked in the top 5 every year. Jones has been a fringe RB1 draft target the past 3 seasons, which is projected for weekly mid-level RB1 production with high end RB1 upside. That consistent high end RB1 upside has been capped in the past due to splitting time with Jamaal Williams and Aaron Rodgers’ preference for throwing the ball.
Now with Williams gone, Jones’ upside remains capped due to AJ Dillon ready to take a step up in workload, Kylin Hill added to the backfield, and Aaron Rodgers continuing to control the offense through the pass. However despite that perceived capped upside Aaron Jones has finished as the RB5 in 2020, and RB2 in 2019 in PPR formats. Yet he’s still being drafted in 2021 as the RB9 and 12th overall in 1QB leagues. Despite a recent history of elite performances, his value is capped due to the perception of his situation in Green Bay.
Jones is the prime candidate for an RB1 ready to solidify his Elite status in 2021 like Dalvin Cook did last year. I have him projected for 275 total fantasy points, finishing only behind guys like CMC, Cook, Kamara, and Barkley. Jones can finish overall and weekly as the RB5 which would be the upside on his ADP of RB9. Despite Green Bay’s high passing volume, they also have run the ball a lot, rushing the 12th and 13th most in the league in 2020 and 2019, respectively. Jones is worth investing a late 1st or early 2nd round pick at the turn in redraft leagues even with Dillon receiving 150 touches and Rodgers connecting with Adams at record numbers.
DRAFT AARON JONES!
Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb is the antithesis of Aaron Jones, despite finishes of RB11 (2020), RB8 (2019), and RB17 (2018), his public perception is currently at RB7 in PPR leagues. His upside is also capped more than Jones due to the presence of Kareem Hunt taking 40% of the rushing workload last year when Chubb only received 38%. Granted Chubb was hurt for 4.5 games last year and Hunt saw a huge increase in workload. Two years ago, Chubb accounted for 76% of the team’s rushing attempts and newcomer Hunt only received 11% of the carries. That imbalance in workload in 2019 could not last, but the split between Chubb and Hunt in 2020 was due to circumstances.
Coming into 2021, I projected Nick Chubb with a 45% share of the rushing attempts, with Hunt at 40%. This split is conservative in the sense that with Chubb fully healthy he could easily command 50%+ of the backfield touches. Hitting 200+ fantasy points in PPR leagues typically puts you in the running for an RB1 finish and that’s exactly where Chubb is projected. Coincidentally, Kareem Hunt is also projected for 200+ fantasy points despite fewer carries, which he will make up for with targets in the passing game.
That’s where Chubb’s capped upside really stems from, his lack of usage in the passing game. This is what is preventing Chubb from being a perennial top 5 PPR RB. He’s such a pure runner that despite his lack of targets, he’s still had 2 back-to-back top 12 finishes. Last year I examined what it takes to typically achieve RB1 status in PPR leagues, based on that data and updated for 2021:
“RB1s and higher since 1992 scored on average at least 220.7 fantasy points. At the same time, no RB has ever received less than 385 touches and not scored at least 220.7 points.”
Nick Chubb’s point total in the past two seasons was 208 in 2020 and 255 in 2019. The fact that Chubb was able to put up RB1 numbers in PPR leagues despite receiving only an average of 33.5 targets the past 2 seasons speaks to his efficiency as a runner and Browns’ offensive scheme. In that same span, he’s been top 12 both seasons for fantasy points per game. In 2020, Cleveland was one of the most run-heavy teams with 495 rushing attempts (4th overall). With a career 5.2 average YPC and tons of volume on one of the most run-heavy offenses, his lack of work in the passing game is negligible. In fact, both Chubb and Kareem Hunt are fantasy viable options in 2021, and with Hunt’s ADP at RB24 he could be a steal.
DON’T WORRY ABOUT CHUBB’S CAPPED UPSIDE – NO CAP
Josh Jacobs
The narrative all off-season is that Josh Jacobs’ days as a locked-in RB1 are numbered due to the arrival of Kenyan Drake. While I will agree that Jacobs may no longer be a locked-in RB1, and instead more of an RB2 with upside, it’s not because of the addition of Kenyan Drake. Drake essentially steps into the role that Devontae Booker held last year where Booker had a few viable fantasy weeks in 2020.
Drake is a much better player and has produced more in his time in the NFL than Booker, but he was signed as a backup to Jacobs for a reason. Some will argue his contract does not align with backup money, but he’s making the same money this year as Kareem Hunt and Tarik Cohen. And it took until Drake’s 5th season last year with the Cardinals for him to finally breakout. It also took more volume than he’s ever seen to do it (239 carries and 31 targets). He ended the season less than 50 yards shy of the 1,000 yard rushing mark on his way to an RB16 finish.
Drake is the biggest perceived cap to Jacobs’ upside in 2021. The actual biggest cap to his upside are his coaches and the offensive scheme causing his lack of targets in the passing game. The most frustrating part of Jacobs’ game is knowing he’s a good receiver out of the backfield, as he showed that skill set at Alabama and flashed his first 2 years in the league. Yet he continues to get limited targets despite him wanting 60 catches.
At Alabama, Jacobs averaged 16 catches a year, which coincided with a very limited workload. So with Jacobs, it’s been about quality, not quantity. In his final two seasons at Alabama, he scored a TD on every 6.5 catches. In the NFL, despite only 72 targets in two seasons, he has a 74% catch rate. But with Richard returning for his 3rd down back role, and Drake now in the mix, targets for Jacobs will be even harder to come by.
However, this perception that Drake is such a better pass catcher than Jacobs is false. Drake has the same career catch rate as Jacobs (73.5%), very similar yards per reception (7.4 to Jacobs 7.6), and similar targets and receptions during their first 2 seasons. Besides speculation, there’s no real reason to expect that Kenyan Drake receives significantly more targets than Jacobs or even Richard.
Jacobs is a high volume guy that isn’t incredibly efficient on paper and doesn’t see a lot of targets. This limits his upside as a locked in RB1. Considering the reasons presented above about why his upside is capped, Jacobs is a solid RB2 with RB1 upside. Last year those upside weeks came when the Raiders won (weeks 1,2,5,7,8,9 and 16). Week 14 against the Chargers was a close loss and Jacobs scored 25 fantasy points, the only loss where Jacobs performed well. Because typically, if Jacobs does not play well then the offense struggles.
Gruden has worked to give Derek Carr all the pass catchers he needs, but this offense still operates through the running game. The Raiders have also been in the top 1/2 of the league in rushing attempts the past 2 seasons despite a career year from Waller in 2020. Jacobs will continue to get volume, but possibly not enough to hit RB1 status (221 points or 385 touches). With a current ADP of RB20, he should easily exceed that mark with over 1,000 yards rushing and 200+ touches. Jacobs is very much worth drafting still, but…
PROCEED WITH CLEAR EXPECTATIONS
James Robinson
With the Jaguars backfield most likely in an RBBC this year, I am either all in or completely out on James Robinson. I’m either rostering both Robinson and Etienne, or neither of them. Robinson received an astounding workload in 2020, accounting for 71% of the team’s total rushing attempts. Despite his talent and production, there was no way he was repeating that high level of workload in 2021. And with the drafting of Travis Etienne, he’ll not only miss the mark he achieved in 2020 for rushes, but he’ll now receive fewer targets.
Etienne racked up over 100 receptions as an RB in his 4 years at Clemson and is primed for the 3rd down back role in his rookie season. My 2021 projections have Robinson with 147 rushing attempts and 24 targets, and Etienne with 87 attempts and 60 targets. A 46% / 28% split of the backfield carries. Conservative numbers will fluctuate as the season progresses. From a football perspective, this split in RB usage is optimum in today’s game. Not only are injuries a daily concern but the ability to keep defenses on their toes with fresh runners creates a mismatch. Fewer touches keep RBs fresh and hopefully healthy. However, it does little to help with fantasy production and this is where Robinson’s upside is capped.
Robinson is a beast in the running game and will continue to dominate carries. He ended the season with over 1,400 rushing yards (most by a UDFA), 4 games of 100+ rushing yards (most among rookie RBs), 17 missed tackles forced on receptions (most among rookie WRs), and as you can see below the most rushing yards after contact (among rookies). But Etienne will steal away touches both on the ground and through the air. A trend that will continue to get worse for Robinson as the season and year(s) progress. While Robinson may have another year in 2021 with RB2 level productivity, his days as an upside RB1 candidate are limited until his situation in the backfield changes.
With an ADP of RB23 (49th overall), his capped upside is already baked into his ADP. And with Etienne at RB28 (66th), you could make a cheap investment on both RBs and start the hot hand or both if they’re productive. Although their upside is capped, the opportunity for touches projects for multiple weeks of RB2 production.
ALL IN or ALL OUT
Editor’s Note: Travis Etienne suffered a mid-foot sprain in the Jaguars’ 2nd preseason game (8/23/2021). As of this publication, Etienne’s season outlook is uncertain. If Etienne returns near the beginning of the season then James Robinson’s upside would be capped as noted by Tommy. If Etienne’s injury causes him to miss extended time, Robinson would vault up rankings with a much higher upside.
