It’s Not Easy to Win a Fantasy Football Championship

It’s simple. All things considered equal, there is a 1/12 chance of winning a 12 man dynasty league. While you may feel confident in your own abilities to improve these odds, there is no dynasty player on the planet who can fairly project favorable odds in a standard league. Winning a league necessitates taking some risk in drafts and trades, as a “safe roster” might make the playoffs, but is disadvantaged against teams with players who have achieved the upper levels of their range of outcomes. Of course, anything can happen in the playoffs, but having upside built into your team can increase your team’s ceiling. If this upside manifests itself, your team can become a true championship contender instead of a fringe playoff pretender.

Finding New Ways to Win

Contrarian dynasty strategies are ways to differentiate yourself from others and improve your team’s overall ceiling. They look to capitalize on value as it inevitably falls, given the inflation of other assets that are propelled by common strategies. Draft cost and trade value charts present zero-sum gains, with every movement up the ranks met by corresponding movement(s) that offset one another. If there are common strategies favoring certain types of players, there will be a corresponding “defavoring” of players that don’t fit conventional draft strategies, creating value.

Here is one of the contrarian dynasty strategies I believe in to maximize upside, and justification as to why.

Stacking in Dynasty Leagues

Stacking is more intuitive and more widely adopted than my first article on rookie RB prioritization for completely rebuilding teams, especially due to the growth of best ball.  Stacking entails pairing together teammates for bigger boom weeks. Most commonly, they include a quarterback and one (or more) of their pass catchers, as when the pass catcher has a big game, the quarterback also stands to benefit through passing yardage and touchdowns. These are often positively correlated stacks. However this isn’t the only form of stacking, as running backs can be brought into stacks as well (especially for non-heavy receiving backs, these are often negatively correlated with the QB).

Negatively correlated stacks can insulate you in certain games from the inevitable ebbs and flows of game-script and touchdowns. Most often, a quarterback or running back is involved in a scoring play, so if you believe in an offense, investing in both of these positions can drastically improve your chances of scoring fantasy points for large plays and touchdowns. It’s important to note that negative correlations do not necessarily mean such stacks are “bad”, as negative correlations merely indicate that as Player A’s fantasy points scored increases, Player B’s typically decreases (the greater the absolute value of the correlation, the greater the strength of this effect). While this does cap your upside when compared to positively-correlated stacks, it also protects against some bust weeks, as Player B can make up for poor performances from Player A and vice versa. Of course, a horrible offensive week can cause both players to underperform. This is why stacking has been largely restricted to best ball and tournaments, and due to this fear, stacking remains an unorthodox option. When factoring in the necessary level of upside needed to win a championship, however, it is an intriguing option.

Implementation

Having gone over the different types of stacks, there are two elements to implementing this strategy: the overall roster construction, and the weekly starting selections you make for your team.

It’s important to note that when I refer to “stacking,” I am talking about meaningful stacks that contribute to players in your fantasy starting lineup or at least top bench pieces, as opposed to often meaningless stacks like the WR 4 for an NFL team and their starting QB.

As a general rule of thumb: the further your team is from the “top” of the league, the more open I am to stacking. If you are in a rebuild or are a middling team, then stacking is definitely an option I recommend you think about. If you are at or very near the top, I don’t advise high-end, key stacks, and would look to decrease weekly volatility by trading away assets within said stacks. The exception to this are “tanking” teams who don’t want to win, if that is the case, I STRONGLY advise against valuable stacks.

Roster Construction

Overall roster construction is determined by the startup draft, subsequent rookie drafts, trades, and the waiver wire. Since most key pieces to valuable stacks won’t be found on waiver wires in dynasty leagues, I’ll focus on the first three elements.

The startup draft is the most important element to stacking, as simply put, it has the largest impact on your team overall, at least in the short-term (1-2 seasons). This is also your first chance to identify your team’s identity. Did your leaguemates overpay for your early startup picks with future rookie draft capital? This makes a smooth transition to a rebuild possible. Did veterans fall too far in your draft? Maybe you can make a strong contending push. Based on your team identity, you can determine the extent to which you want stacks on your roster.

In full-tank rosters, I’d advise against excessive stacking since this increases your week to week volatility, and could be counterproductive to your team goals regarding future rookie picks. As a middle-of-the-road roster, I would look for some mid-level stacks, since they could either propel your team to fantasy success or make your transition into a rebuild easier (eg. Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen last year. Both were moderate in cost, and we saw how they absolutely dominated the fantasy scene last season, which could have elevated a middling roster to a true contender. Conversely, another middle-level stack like Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr (although partly due to injury, which is an assumed risk from stacks since both players’ scoring are correlated together) didn’t pan out, making the decision to go into a rebuild easier). I will address contenders later on, since out of a startup draft, it is rare to clearly know that your team is a legitimate championship-level roster.

Rookie drafts offer another chance to find stacks, however the opportunity is fairly limited. With few high-level picks, reaching on stacks is generally not advised. If you can find a solid stack at value, and you seek additional upside, then stacking could be beneficial, however I wouldn’t actively look for them in rookie drafts.

Trading is another avenue to pursue stacking. Through trades, you can acquire stacks often more easily than in startup drafts, as you have a better idea of your team state and aren’t restricted by your startup draft spot (eg. if you have the 1.12 in a superflex startup and want Patrick Mahomes & Tyreek Hill, this is simply unattainable since Mahomes will be off the board). This is the best way to address stacking as a contender. For the most part, I don’t advise high-end stacks if you truly believe in your roster having championship potential. The weekly volatility of this strategy can be counterproductive to your record, as when you are favored in a matchup, there isn’t a need to add unnecessary variability into the equation. If you are a fringe contender, I’m still open to the idea, however I would wait until mid-season to reassess your team and its position within the league before pulling the trigger on valuable stacks.

Weekly Lineup Selections

This is a very important section to this article. Stacking is an inherently volatile strategy, and can backfire in many ways. Optimally setting your lineups is the best way to “control” and reset the overall range of outcomes stacking presents to best benefit your team’s W/L record.

Before I begin, let me be clear, I do not mean to bench your essential, cornerstone players, regardless of whether they are in a stack. Play your studs. Rather this advice refers to situations where one or more of the players involved are in the flex or are involved in a difficult lineup decision that week.

Secondly; this implementation section refers to leagues that rely on W/L record (as opposed to exclusively starting PF) to determine playoffs and seeding. This means winning or losing by 5 points or 100 points mean essentially the same thing, making you prioritize winning at all costs, even if your median projection will be slightly lower as a result of stacking. With these disclaimers out of the way, let’s jump in.

There are two aspects to weekly lineup decisions pertaining to stacking; how your team is faring (projections wise) against your opponent, and the number (and quality) of starting players left on both of your teams. If the number of starters left to play is low, it increases the intensity of my advice depending on current matchup state (projected pts, accounting for the realized number of fantasy points scored by players who have already played, if applicable). And vice versa.

FAR Ahead

Bench your non-essential stacks if you have a large lead, especially if the number of starters left to play is low. There is no need to take on the extra volatility in this case.

Ahead

Look into benching your stacked players if you believe in your team’s success this week.

Even

Stay the course. Continue with your original plan.

Behind

Stacks get a boost given the need for upside.

FAR Behind

Stack away! That extra upside can win you your week if everything works out, otherwise, it’s no issue since you would have most likely lost anyways!

Warning!

It’s important to be wary of going overboard, both in terms of roster construction and weekly lineup decisions. Don’t unnecessarily reach for stacks, losing out on value and lowering your team’s chances of success. If a stack falls to you (or is very close/same tier) then go for it if you seek additional upside, however to reiterate: don’t reach too excessively for stacks. Additionally, when making lineup decisions, don’t bench your studs for players with far lower median projections. Stacking should be a tiebreaker +/- a little boost, as opposed to being the exclusive decision maker.

Final Thoughts

Upside is an essential part of any championship team in dynasty leagues, however due to the mass proliferation of information caused by the fantasy industry’s massive growth, edges are increasingly difficult to come by. Using contrarian strategies that run opposite to established schools of thought within the fantasy community is one way to retain potential advantages, and find unique ways to maximize your team’s ceiling. Thank you for reading!

Follow Vivek Iyer on Twitter for more fantasy football content! Feel free to reach out with any feedback or questions! If you’d like premium, personalized content from The Undroppables, check out our Patreon!