The Gastrocnemius and Soleus (calf muscles) combine to form the Achilles tendon on the posterior (back) aspect of the lower leg which attaches to the calcaneus (heel.) The Achilles tendon is the largest and strongest tendon in the body.
The function of the Achilles tendon and calf muscles is to perform plantarflexion. We use these muscles to walk, run, jump, and cut everyday. Examples of plantarflexion include standing on your tip toes or pressing the gas pedal.
A rupture of the Achilles tendon is a brutal injury due to the functionality of the tendon (everyday use) and the prolonged healing process. Achilles tendons are poorly vascularized (area that does not receive a lot of blood flow.)
Patients that suffer an Achilles tendon rupture describe the injury as feeling as if they are being kicked hard in the back of the leg and some have even heard an audible pop of the tendon during rupture.
Timetable for Return to Sport
Rehab is a grueling process to regain the ROM (range of motion) and dynamic movement post-injury. Typical Return to Sport (RTS) for athletes following Achilles tendon ruptures is around the 9-12 month mark, with rehab sometimes extending into the 18 month mark in some patients.
A primary concern following Achilles tendon rupture and repair is a return to prior level of strength and explosiveness. A study showed that peak torque in the injured leg was markedly less than the non-injured leg.
A positive note is that patients that suffer an Achilles tendon rupture only have about a 5% chance of re-rupture per “Examination of Orthopedic and Athletic Injuries 4th edition.” But just how positive is the reinjury rate?
Although the reinjury rate may be low, this chart shows that running backs have an extremely difficult time returning to elite status. Due to the nature of the running back position requiring explosive movements, an Achilles tendon injury is devastating.
So are Achilles tendon ruptures still the death sentence of NFL players, specifically running backs? The simple answer is that we just don’t know. Marlon Mack will be a closely examined comeback case. If Mack can prove he’s fully recovered then we know modern science has made tremendous progress.
Earlier in the offseason, my fellow Undroppables did some divisional breakdowns for the “more relevant” players in the eyes of the fantasy community. I’m here to provide similar analysis, but for the more unknown fantasy assets: The Offensive Line. As we get into training camps and look forward to the season, here’s a recap of the offseason moves and draft picks from the teams in the AFC East. Unfortunately, this will be my last divisional breakdown before my final Offensive Line Ranking are released. For continuity and projected team starters, follow my current Offensive Line Rankings here.
Buffalo Bills
This group was stout throughout last year. They did not make waves, but they allowed Josh Allen and company to operate at a very high level. Dion Dawkins and Daryl Williams held down the tackle spots. Dawkins has been very solid since entering the league in 2017. Williams on the other hand has had an up-and-down career. He earned second team All-Pro honors in 2017 with the Panthers. The next year he played only one game due to knee injuries. In 2019 he started games at three different positions on the line still with the Panthers. 2020 was a career resurgence for Williams with the Bills taking a shot on him. He earned a three-year extension worth $28.2M. Sometimes it takes an extra year of mental recovery to fully heal.
On the interior it was a shuffle game, especially at guard. Right Guard Jon Feliciano tore his pectoral muscle in August. Cody Ford was then set to start at Right Guard for the season. Quinton Spain started at Left Guard but went down in Week 3. The Bills previously signed Brian Winters for depth. Ford bumped to Left Guard, with Winters in at Right Guard. This group played a few games together before Ford went down. Ike Boettger started in his place in Week 7 after releasing Spain a week prior. Mitch Morse suffered a concussion early in Week 8. Luckily Feliciano returned that week to slide in at Center. Boettger, Morse, and Feliciano finished out the season. That versatility is what kept the boat afloat for the Bills.
Biggest Moves
A few days after Williams got his extension, so did Feliciano. They tendered Ike Boettger a few days later and he signed a one year deal in April. They did all the right things in free agency and retained their guys. Winters did walk, but getting three out of four free agents back is huge. They also signed two other free agents in Forrest Lamp and Bobby Hart. It would not surprise me if both got cut in camp.
Draft Picks
The Bills invested three picks in this deep class. Although neither seem to be year-one contributors, it shows they are always looking to improve up front. Competition brings out the best. The first of the three was Spencer Brown in the third round. The second was Tommy Doyle in the fifth round. Both of these guys are least 6080, or 6’8″ for people like me who were not well versed in combine measurements before this year. Their RAS scores you ask? Spencer Brown tied with Creed Humphrey with a perfect 10. Tommy Doyle was not far behind him with a 9.9/10. If both pan out, Tackle will be set for a very long time. Below is how Brown celebrated being drafted into #BillsMafia.
The third was Jack Anderson in the seventh round. Anderson was no slouch in testing either. His RAS came out at a respectable 8.58/10. As for comps for all three, courtesy of MockDraftable, see these links: Spencer Brown, Tommy Doyle, and Jack Anderson. Spencer Brown has some fantastic comps, a handful of very high quality starters. Unfortunately I have not done my film work on either of the three players.
2021 Outlook
This group seems to have a locked in their starting five going into camp. The Tackles are both set. Ford will start at Left Guard, Morse is back at Center, with Feliciano at Right Guard. They could very well be a top five pass protecting group in 2021. They have the depth to compete if one of them does go down. With the shuffle game last year, they are covered basically everywhere. The two Tackles in the draft will cover them if anything happens on the outside. This is not a sexy group, but they have a very good shot to be hyper efficient and finish top five overall. The addition of Stefon Diggs coupled with the line coming together helped Josh Allen grow immensely. It could get even better in 2021.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins spent three draft picks last year on Offensive Line. The first, picked at #18, was Austin Jackson. The second was Robert Hunt at the beginning of the second round, selected #39. Finally, they drafted Solomon Kindley in the fourth round at #111. Obviously, there were some growing pains as a rookie for each of them. They still played at least 720 snaps each, which will be huge for growth in each of their second years. Jackson had a bit of a bump year. Kindley played mainly Right Guard with Ereck Flowers at the Left Guard spot.
Robert Hunt played Right Tackle a decent amount when Jesse Davis bumped inside. They did a lot of shuffling last year. Their only player to play 100% of the snaps for the entire roster according to Pro Football Reference was Ted Karras. He signed for a one-year deal and ended up returning to the Patriots this offseason. No one expected them to do as well as they did last year. No one up front had a stellar year. I am a big fan of what Brian Flores is doing down in Miami.
Biggest Moves
Aside from not re-signing Karras, the Dolphins have made some decent moves so far. They basically poached the Baltimore Ravens roster. Early in Free Agency, they were able to sign Matt Skura. Before the draft they also signed D.J. Fluker. Fluker at this point is a bit of a journeyman, now on his fifth team since joining the NFL in 2013. What Fluker will provide is depth and experience for those young players. Skura has a chance to provide a lot more. In Week 12 of the 2019 season, Skura tore his ACL, MCL, and PCL. His season in 2020 was quite disappointing. I’ve said this before, it can take an extra year for the mental side of things to click in that everything is okay. Just because everything is physically recovered, doesn’t mean that its all good to go, especially after an injury like that.
Draft Picks
Once again in a good class, the Dolphins dipped their fins into the draft pool for an Offensive Lineman. Before my film study, one of the people that I talk O-Line with @DTH_Mason did his first look at Liam Eichenberg. He was one of my favorite prospects in the class from this moment on. He comes in with a solid RAS. A lot of his comps courtesy of MockDraftable have transitioned to Guard. If you switch the list to the general ‘OL’ tag, you will see Notre Dame definitely has a “type”. As I got started, a lot of the same things showed up. My final grade on him is 7.7/10 and you can find my writeup here.
2021 Outlook
There are many possible outcomes for this group. It seems at least three of the five spots are near locks. Austin Jackson has the Left Tackle spot locked up. Solomon Kindley will get the first crack at Left Guard, which he played in college and a little last year. I see Skura locking up that Center job and having a bounce-back year.
Neither of the spots on the right side are set yet. The Dolphins have been trying Robert Hunt at Right Guard. He will compete with Jesse Davis, who is a very solid player, but does not have the potential that Hunt does. At this point it looks like he will be a swing guard/tackle. At Right Tackle, Eichenberg will get the first crack here. D.J. Fluker will be waiting to replace if things go south. Switching sides is no easy task; everything is backwards from what you have been doing for years.
This group has the makings to improve drastically if everything falls into place. If not, they will be a below average group once again. I am very bullish on this team overall, and I think Tua returns to his college form. In the second year off his devastating injury as well, linked up with his explosive receiver from Alabama Jaylen Waddle… Feels like #TuaTime to me.
New England Patriots
This group finished as my sixth overall group in 2020, bolstered by their number five rush rank. Their quality depth was one of the biggest factors. Eight lineman played over 150 snaps. As for those specific players, it was another rough year for Isaiah Wynn. In his first three seasons he has played only 18 games, with 10 of those being in 2020. When Wynn was in, he showed why he was worth that first round pick in 2018. His running mate Joe Thuney was consistent as always; he played the most snaps out of anyone on the roster. David Andrews had a very nice comeback year, as he missed 2019 with a pulmonary embolism. He was the glue that this group missed that year.
2020 Sixth round pick Michael Onwenu technically started all 16 games in 2020. He played the third-most snaps on the team. The first two games he started as a tackle-eligible tight end. After that, he was locked in as one of the starting five. While he mainly played Right Tackle on the year, Onwenu was one of the teams biggest chess pieces. Onwenu made appearances at both Left and Right Guard as well. He has some things to clean up, but for a rookie season in a COVID year, it was well above expectations. Next to him for the majority of the year was Shaq Mason, who had another quietly great year.
Biggest Moves
As discussed in my AFC West article, the Patriots lost Joe Thuney to the Chiefs in free agency. Before that the team traded away 2020 opt-out Marcus Cannon to the Texans. That same day, the team traded for a familiar face in Trent Brown. He played only four games if you don’t count the one he only took three snaps. He spent two seasons with the Raiders after his one dominant season with the Patriots. Even without the great Dante Scarnecchia Trent Brown is happy to be back in New England.
As previously mentioned, the Patriots also brought back Ted Karras after his year in Miami. He started 15 games in the year that David Andrews was out. He will not start this year, barring injury, as the biggest move for the Patriots was re-signing the aforementioned cover man David Andrews to a four-year contract.
Draft Picks
The Patriots are hoping that the sixth round will do them well once again this year with Will Sherman. He is another versatile lineman that the Patriots will use like a chess piece if given the opportunity. Sherman played both Left and Right Tackle and has apparently practiced at Center. He is listed as a guard for his RAS. This is most likely where he will start camp as well. Here are his comps courtesy of MockDraftable. I have not done my scouting report on Sherman yet.
2021 Outlook
Few teams will have the kind of depth the Patriots do. I have a lot of promise for this group going into the 2021 season. They have a chance to finish as the number one group. A lot of it will depend on Wynn and Brown staying healthy. If they can put together a full season with improvement from Onwenu, they will be winning a lot of rock fights. Ground and pound will be this team’s way. They will still be one of the better pass protecting units as well. There are few weaknesses for this group. They have the depth, they have the leadership, they have continuity. This group is poised to dominate.
Damien Harris takes advantage of the hole created by the Patriots Offensive Line.
As for fantasy, I am all in on the run game here. I really like the outlook of the man in the gif above, Damien Harris. He should take over this backfield and not let go. Whether Bill Belichick lets that happen or not is another thing.
New York Jets
Not much can be said about the 2020 Jets in general. They made a bunch of signings last year which were all well below average players. This did the team, and especially Sam Darnold, no favors. The one actual improvement they did make was with first-round pick Mekhi Becton. He didn’t have a great year either though, as he struggled with a shoulder injury for a decent chunk of the season. Even with this he was still able to play 70% of the snaps, which shows how much he wants to play. When he was on the field he was every bit as advertised: a big mauler that will crush defenders. Across the line we saw below average play from just about everyone the Jets plugged in. Eight lineman had over 235 snaps. No matter the combination, it was a struggle each week.
Biggest Moves
The Jets signed Morgan Moses a few weeks ago. He improved a good amount in 2020 and was a surprising cut by the Washington Football Team. What he brings is more than just his on-field play. He brings a leadership quality that the Jets have been lacking. His contract is a one-year deal with his cap number being $4.3 million. They also brought in Dan Feeney from the Chargers, most famous at this point for slugging beers while rocking a mullet at the Islanders game. He will provide them depth along the interior.
The most impactful move was bringing in the new coaching staff. Robert Saleh, Mike LaFleur, and Offensive Line Coach John Benton are all coming over from the 49ers. Coach Benton also has the title of Run Game Coordinator. The zone scheme they are bringing will be very beneficial to the group up front. One that their draft pick will fit right into.
Draft Picks
Alijah Vera-Tucker with pristine pass protection.
In one of the more surprising moves of the draft, the Jets traded up with the Minnesota Vikings to secure who many thought was the best Guard in the draft, Alijah Vera-Tucker. They had to give up two third round picks, which the Vikings used to draft QB Kellen Mond and fellow Guard Wyatt Davis. This is not a knock against Vera-Tucker, but with the depth of this draft both of those picks could have been used to bolster their line. A few additional names the Jets could’ve taken in the third round: Jalen Mayfield, Ben Cleveland, and Quinn Meinerz.
Back to Vera-Tucker. He made the most of his testing, and his RAS reflects that. He has some very notable comps, courtesy of MockDraftable as always. I like him much better at guard than tackle. My final grade on Alijah Vera-Tucker is 7.9/10 and you can find my final write-up here.
2021 Outlook
With the added leadership of Morgan Moses, this group has the tools to skyrocket up ranks. It doesn’t seem like the Jets want to move George Fant inside. This gives them a very good swing tackle if needed. Fant can also be used in short yardage situations as tackle eligible, which gives them flexibility. Center Connor McGovern and Right Guard Greg Van Roten are still weak spots for this group. The scheme should help a little. The pairing of Vera-Tucker with Becton has the makings of a dominant left side. Vera-Tucker played at a high level when paired with Austin Jackson in college. Becton being as dominant as he is will be a great pairing. The growth of Becton and the health of the line overall will be the key here. Their depth outside of Fant is very weak, which has me worried given last year.
One of the most volatile things in fantasy football is the public perception of player value. Like real football being a game of inches, fantasy football is a game that can change by the minute. Player values can rise and fall with every Twitter alert, one big play, or one disastrous injury. During the off-season, however, the public perception of value changes daily as managers are left analyzing data from the past to try and forecast the future. It’s all speculation at this point in the offseason.
In the year of COVID-19, dynasty values changed as quickly as cases racked up across the country. It was a volatile season! But 2020 was also the exception to the norm and some players who dipped in value should not be held liable long term for one down year. The obvious reasons are that star players got hurt and had their season cut short, and you should obviously buy their dip (e.g. Christian McCaffrey, Dak Prescott, Saquon Barkley, etc.). We also know those guys will return to greatness, because they’re great. Instead, let’s look at three currently distressed assets that can be acquired for lower than their 2020 off-season value, and should return value on that short-term investment in 2021.
Kenny Golladay
Kenny Golladay is essentially free as the change of scenery did little to sway public perception of him to the positive side. Expectations were high coming into 2020, which turned into a disappointing season after an early hamstring injury, then a hip flexor injury that landed him on IR after Week 9. With a trade to the Giants this offseason, Kenny G returns to an alpha role as long as his return from injury is complete. Fans, writers, and analysts will be monitoring his status throughout training camp.
Projection
I currently have Golladay projected for a 19% target share in New York, which would equate to approximately 108 targets. A reasonable projection for the WR1 on his team that had a bottom 3rd in the league passing offense. The Giants offense without Barkley last year produced the 26th overall offense in pass attempts per game with 32, and the 29th overall yards per game with 189.
With Barkley returning and an offensive line that is still ranked towards the bottom of the league, I conservatively project Golladay for 63 receptions for 1,071 yards and 8 TDs. In full PPR leagues this stat line projects to approximately 218 fantasy points, which would have been good for WR20 last year. Golladay is now catching passes from Daniel Jones who throws a 74.4% catchable pass rate, which is #33 overall, basically the worst in the league among starting QBs. Thankfully, Kenny Golladay has been the highest-graded WR on contested targets since 2018 per PFF, below.
Highest graded WRs on contested targets since 2018: 🥇 Kenny Golladay – 97.5 🥈 Allen Robinson – 95.1 🥉 DeAndre Hopkins – 94.0 pic.twitter.com/w2qZrL3gfG
Underdog ADP for best ball leagues that have been running all summer, list Golladay as WR26 with an ADP of 55 overall, which is on par with Sleeper ADP for PPR redraft and dynasty startups. Even with a conservative projection for this year, there is potential for an immediate return on investment. His full potential return comes from him exceeding those projections, which is possible with a full year from Barkley. Golladay has finished recent seasons anywhere from WR21 to WR9, and if fully healthy with a dominant share of the targets, he has low-end WR1 upside.
Future Value
Trades I’ve seen for Kenny Golladay range from Deebo Samuel, James Robinson, or Kareem Hunt as a 1:1 trade. These trades are fairly even as there is uncertainty with each of these guys. When formulating a package with picks for Golladay, an early 2022 2nd and Will Fuller, or a late 2023 1st and Michael Pittman, could do the trick. Golladay is on contract with the Giants for the next 4 years, with a potential out in 2025. I would expect at least 2 of those 4 years to be fantasy viable as a stable WR2 with low-end WR1 upside as the 27 year old is entering his 5th season. A great win-now candidate is available for relatively cheap.
Ezekiel Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott went from fantasy darling through Week 7 when he was a top 3 RB in the league, to Week 11 when his stock plummeted. Those first 5 weeks with Dak Prescott vaulted Elliott to the top of the RB charts, and he was able to keep that fantasy momentum going for 4 more weeks as he was still a top 5 RB in Week 9. From Week 11 onward Zeke was averaging just 60 rushing yards per game those final 5 weeks. As we see in the tweet below, when Zeke was playing with Dak under center, he was dominating the league.
Ezekiel Elliot’s RB ranks in the five games alongside Dak Prescott:
1st in routes run (172) 1st in carries inside the five (14) 3rd in receptions (24) 2nd in fantasy points (114) pic.twitter.com/IwcxMFOD09
That poor finish to the 2020 season left a bad taste in fantasy players’ mouths, leading some to throw Zeke shares off a boat. To add context, teams were able to stack the box more to stop Zeke without the threat of Dak throwing all over the field. This resulted in a bottom 3rd rating in the league for Open Field Yards, 2nd Level Yards, and Stuffed Rate per Football Outsiders. Zeke was not able to break off long runs the 2nd half of the season because he was stuffed at the line of scrimmage 18.5% of the time.
Projection
Well now Dak is back, and Zeke is looking in fantastic shape, lean and fast. We saw a similar commitment to fitness from Lebron James recently when he went to the Lakers as a way to play at a higher level for a longer period of time. This more fit Zeke, with an offensive line ranked 11th overall currently by our own Brad Wire, coupled with a prolific pass offense, can return Zeke to elite status. I conservatively have Zeke projected for 282 carries (career average) for 1,256 yards and 9 TDs, with 51 receptions for 357 yards and 2 TDs. A stat line that will produce approximately 272 PPR fantasy points, which would’ve ranked 4th overall for RBs last year.
Current Value
His current ADP is RB8 and 27th overall in dynasty SF startup drafts. Best ball players have come around more on Zeke, giving him an ADP of RB5 and 5th overall on Underdog. For redraft and dynasty leagues that ADP has him going in the early 3rd round, and drafts taking place in May/June saw Zeke drafted in the middle of the 4th round at worst. Overall, the fantasy community is starting to come around on Zeke maintaining his elite status. But at the height of speculation season, his value was significantly lower than what it was coming into 2020 as the RB3.
Future Value
This is exceptional value for an RB1 that finished 2020 as the RB9 despite a “down year”. Looking at various trade trackers, value is all over the place to make a trade for Zeke. The lowest value I saw Zeke traded for was for Myles Gaskin straight up. I love Myles, but that is ludicrous. I also saw trades for Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Aaron Jones which still shows Zeke has high trade value. But this shows if you want to trade for your Zeke you’ll have to find someone that is really out on him and probably doesn’t have Twitter. Your best bet at acquiring a share is to target Zeke in the 2nd (or even 3rd) Round of drafts to pair with another stud to set your team off right with two top 5 players.
Michael Thomas
Drew Brees has officially retired, and the Saints QB situation is in flux for the first time in a long time. We’re now waiting for the final decision on who will be the new starting QB for the Saints, Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. My money is on Jameis who is the most complete QB, but I also expect to still see plenty of Taysom Hill. This question has the greatest affect on Michael Thomas’ fantasy success in 2021 and beyond. But, if Michael Thomas is really as good as we think he is shouldn’t he be QB proof for fantasy? Here are the splits for Michael Thomas with Drew Brees and Taysom Hill.
Taysom Hill
There’s a clear dip in almost every category when Taysom Hill was under center, most notably touchdowns. Average depth of target (aDOT) was the one stat that did not decrease, a result of the game plan when both QBs were playing. The king of the slant route thrived with Drew Brees peppering him with targets, but when Taysom Hill was throwing the ball he targeted Thomas less often but more aggressively downfield. However, the game plan when Taysom was in the game was to run the ball more, mostly through Taysom. Hill led all QBs in carries and even Kamara saw a dip in production with Hill starting.
For Thomas’ fantasy sake, I’m hoping Winston is the starter. When Thomas is fed a steady stream of 120+ targets per season he will put up WR1 numbers. That’s what he has done every season of his professional career until last season when he missed 9 games due to 2 right leg injuries. And like his profile on Reception Perception shows, he’s successful at a lot more than just the slant route. He’ll find ways to win on almost any route thrown his way, by whoever is throwing it. But if it’s Jameis we know the ball will get thrown far more often and target Thomas significantly more times.
Slant boy? Not in our books 📚 still a whole lot of green on this tree.
— Reception Perception (@RecepPerception) July 16, 2021
Jameis Winston
Thomas has been playing at an elite level despite a lack of an elite Player Profile. He has outperformed what was expected of him coming into the league, partly thanks to the Saints and Drew Brees. But now is his opportunity to prove he can still be elite without Brees. If Winston is throwing him the ball, he can return to elite status. Looking at the last time Winston started all season (2019) he put up the most passing yards and completed air yards. This was thanks to the most pass attempts in the league. He also threw the most INTs on a 30/30 year (TD/INT). He may not be great for real football based on ball security and wins, but he’s great for fantasy and can rekindle that high production with Thomas.
When we look at Winston’s numbers with another elite type of WR in Chris Godwin from 2018/2019 we can see Winston had an aDot of 11.2, 84.2 yards/game, 10.4, yards/target, and 12 TDs. All numbers more in line with Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. Two areas we don’t see an increase are in targets/game (8.1) and receptions/game (5.3). So given the scheme, both Winston and Hill may target Thomas a similar amount but the quality of the targets is much better from Winston.
Projection
I have projected Michael Thomas at a reasonable 25% target share (23% historic avg.) which equates to approximately 137 targets, 103 receptions off a 75% catch rate, 1,030 yards with a conservative 10 YPR, and 7 TDs. This stat line totals approximately 249 fantasy points (full PPR), good enough for WR11 last year. Take into account Winston’s success with Godwin, and Thomas could easily exceed this projection, making him a safe mid-high end WR1.
There’s no trend to show that Thomas would see less than 120 targets. Sean Payton’s Saints offense has been #1 in passing attempts per game 5 times since 2006. They ranked in the top 5 for passing attempts 5 more times. However, since 2017 (Alvin Kamara’s rookie year) they haven’t cracked the top 15 in passing attempts.
Editor’s Note: As of July 23, 2021, Michael Thomas’ status for the start of the season is up in the air with news that he is recovering from an ankle operation in June. With a 4 month recovery timetable seemingly as a best case scenario, Thomas’ 2021 projections should come with tempered expectations as we can no longer assume he will be posting WR1 numbers this year. However, Thomas isn’t expected to miss the entire season so if he can return to the field in peak condition at some point in the season, we could expect solid PPG numbers from the Saints WR1, and hopefully a significant boost to a playoff and championship contending fantasy team.
Current Value
That’s the trend to watch as Payton starts to rely more on Kamara and Hill to balance out the offensive attack until they find their next franchise QB. But the concern for Thomas without Brees has dropped his value in dynasty leagues to WR9 with an ADP ranging from 27th (Underdog) to 46th overall in SF startup drafts (Sleeper). It’s not a huge drop, but a significant one for the overall WR1 in 2019 who had an ADP of WR1 (8th overall) in 2020.
Future Value
For teams looking to rebuild, Michael Thomas still holds high value for some as I have seen he’s been traded recently for the pair of Jerry Jeudy and Rashod Bateman, as well as for Terry McLaurin and CeeDee Lamb. His value still holds enough upside to also get two 1st Round Rookie picks in trade. I would hold or try to acquire Thomas for any team looking to win now. He’s right at the tipping point age wise (28) before he’ll statistically start to fall off a cliff. So I expect 2021 to be a prove it year as the Saints have the option for an out in 2022, despite being on contract until 2024. A fantastic candidate for an immediate return on investment to elite status.
Huge shoutout to Brian (@BpoFSU) for help with finding the data and running the numbers used in this article.
This week on “The Undrafted”, a fantasy football podcast focusing on dynasty game theory, Scott (@DynoGameTheory) has Justin Boone (@JustinBoone), Lead Fantasy Analyst at The Score, on as a guest. They talk about the devastating Cam Akers news, their favorite tight end targets, and even a little bit of Tim Tebow. Tune in or be tuned out.
With training camps about to get underway and a 17 week regular season coming, the fragility of the running back position is about to be tested more than ever. We’ve already seen a key RB go down to a season ending injury (prayers up for Cam Akers) and, unfortunately, we very well may see more over the next several weeks. Insulating your fantasy teams with insurance via backups is an ideal move for those savvy managers who want to make not only protect against the injury bug but also find league-winning upside. Consider rostering these rookie RBs at the end of your benches in case of emergency.
Rhamondre Stevenson – New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson is the classic thunder-and-lightning type running back, filling in the former portion of such a duo. A physical grinder, Stevenson possesses an imposing stiff arm much like former Patriots RB LeGarette Blount (who many have comped Stevenson to). Even though Stevenson is a bruising back, he has demonstrated the ability to evade defenders near the line of scrimmage by using his athleticism (e.g., good footwork, solid contact balance, and spin moves).
On the downside, the former Sooner enters the league at age 23 and has not shown enough of a receiving ability (only 28 receptions across two collegiate seasons) to make him a dual-threat back. In his limited 19 game college career, Stevenson did show decent ability to catch the ball and run routes out of the backfield but he’ll likely be pegged as a two-down back in the pros.
Stevenson finds himself on one of the deeper backfields in the NFL and will need to impress Bill Belichick and company in the preseason to see a significant amount of touches in year 1. Damien Harris is the favorite to lead the Patriots RBs in touches this season and Sony Michel is still around. With that said, the Patriots have been known to take the slow approach with their running backs so even if Stevenson doesn’t see the field in his rookie year, he’s a player you should consider stashing as Michel has already shown signs that he may not last very long as a dependable option for New England. Remember, Harris barely saw the field in his rookie year and is now the odds-on favorite to be the Patriots RB1. Even if Stevenson sees a redshirt year in his rookie season, don’t forget that Blount pounded his way to 18 touchdowns for the Patriots in his age 30 season. This gives hope to those rostering Stevenson that he might find himself in a similar role sooner or later.
Elijah Mitchell – San Francisco 49ers
Elijah Mitchell finds himself in a crowded San Francisco backfield with a depth chart to climb but a RB in Kyle Shanahan’s explosive offense is worth a stash in dynasty leagues. Mitchell’s tape from his playing days at Louisiana-Lafayette shows an elusive back who possesses good contact balance and an ability to break arm tackles with ease. Mitchell possesses a knack for finding and hitting holes hard with great burst and acceleration. The former Ragin Cajun has the size you are looking for in an NFL running back (5-10, 201 lbs.) paired with high-end speed, burst, and agility. San Francisco’s current lead back, Raheem Mostert, is known for his world-class speed and ran a 4.42 40. With that said, Mitchell is even faster, clocking a 4.35 40 at his Pro Day (which has been adjusted by Player Profiler to 4.40). As a north-south runner who pounds the rock, Mitchell projects to fit very well in the 49ers run scheme (outside zone and inside zone) given his size and speed.
Shanahan has a knack for turning late round picks and undrafted players into highly productive RBs as seen with Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, and the aforementioned Mostert. Mitchell, a sixth round pick, fits the bill when it comes to sleeper running backs who might become a windfall for fantasy owners if given the opportunity.
Although fellow rookie Trey Sermon and veteran backs Mostert and Wayne Gallman stand in Mitchell’s way, we have already seen Jeff Wilson go down with injury this offseason. Another injury and/or disappointing start with any of the other backs on the 49ers may give Mitchell an opportunity to run away with a spot in the rotation. Even if Mitchell doesnt get an opportunity in his rookie year, Mostert, Gallman, Wilson, and Ja’Mycal Hasty (exclusive rights) will all become free agents after this season leaving Sermon and Mitchell as the only backs under contract.
Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard is a quick running back with excellent burst. Especially dangerous in open space, Hubbard has the makings of a true gamebreaker with the ability to create big plays and find the end zone. The former All-American from Oklahoma State is also a strong runner and has showcased consistency when it comes to grinding out tough yards. Hubbard has shown he can excel in the red zone by pounding the rock in the trenches while also being able to find open holes and break loose.
Hubbard was considered one of the nation’s top running backs only a couple of years ago, even garnering attention as a Heisman candidate. However, injuries derailed Hubbard’s college career. Hubbard slipped in the NFL Draft and he now finds himself in a precarious landing spot for early production as the Panthers selected him in the fourth round as a backup for Christian McCaffrey. The silver lining is that there is weak competition for the backup role as Reggie Bonnafon and Trenton Cannon are replacement-level players at best.
Hubbard should easily move up the depth chart and in the event of another CMC injury, Chuba would likely see a large workload. Even if McCaffrey stays healthy, it isn’t inconceivable that Carolina would want to manage CMC’s heavy volume in order to preserve his career. If Hubbard didn’t suffer those lingering injuries in college, he would likely have gone earlier in the draft. Hubbard’s ability to return to peak form will make him a steal even as the thunder to McCaffrey’s lightning.
