The process is off to a great start. After playing three different competitions last week, the process cashed out in 2 out of 3 contests. While I would love to go 3 for 3, variance and luck are going to make it nearly impossible to be perfect. After a successful week 1, it’s time to identify what went right and what went wrong, refine the process, and move onto a new competition. If you’re new to this article, check out my first article in this series from last week. Before we dive back in, I want to again give the disclaimer that I am not a DFS expert and so use the players I talk about at your own risk.

Reviewing the Process

If you want to see the process, it can be found in my article from last article in the link above)

The process led me to enter contests in 3 games; MIA @ NE because of the low over/under and New England being heavy favorite, DAL @ LAR because of the high over/under, and TEN @ DEN because of the low over/under. The only game that didn’t follow the trend I was trying to aim for was the DAL @ LAR game so I would consider this part of the process a success and will continue to use it.
Players selected based on the chart:
1. MIA @ NE
  1. I played the maximum number of NE players, avoided Fitzpatrick, used the Patriots defense, and I played Edelman in the Captain position. Following the chart worked out well and the only change I wish I had done was playing Cam Newton as my captain, but I don’t see any reason to change the process from this competition.
2. DAL @ LAR
  1. I made my lineup assuming it would be a shootout with the Cowboys as favorite and it turned into a slugfest with the Rams winning the game. Because they were favorites, I loaded up on Dallas players. I played Prescott as my captain, and filled the lineup with Zeke, Gallup, and Lamb. I also played Woods and included Gerald Everett as a cheap play. The optimal lineup also suggested playing the WR3 from the favored team, which really worked out with Lamb. Honestly I think I got lucky with this contest considering the end result of the game, but there was a solid foundation that led me to the right players.
3. TEN @ DEN
  1. This is the one lineup I did not cash on. Despite the result, I think the process was correct, variance and luck just got in the way. I played A.J. Brown as my Captain because WR1 was the most Captained player on optimal lineups. I filled out my lineup with D. Henry, Tannehill, Fant, Titans defense, and Tim Patrick. This game fit the slugfest I was chasing, it had 30 total points, but A.J. Brown was not used as I expected. If he had caught the touchdown that slipped through his hands near the end of the game, I would have most likely cashed.
This third step is where I need to greatly improve. I did not do much analysis to fill my lineup and instead followed the chart and selected players that were historically most often in optimal lineups. Now that we have one week of data , I will look to build this area.

New Process for Showdown Double-Ups

Use Vegas lines to identify matchups that I think can be exploited. I will try and avoid games with no clear favorites and mid-level over/unders (between 40-50). Do not feel like you need to play every game, only play games you feel like you have an advantage.
Use the chart below to select a few players I want to be in my lineup and players to avoid. I added columns for the difference between the specific type of game and the total to make it easier to identify players to pay attention to and avoid. The only player I will be hesitant to add is DST as they have not performed well in my small sample size. (again this data is from this article by Kevin Cole)

3. Fill out the rest of the roster using personal analysis. I am going to focus on previous game usage, historical positional defense rankings, and recent matchups between the teams. I am not worried about start % for these cash games so it is not a part of my process.

4. Make sure to stay up to date with game time news in case of a late scratch.

In a few weeks, I will circle back and see how this process has been working.

Week 2 Strategy: Classic Double Up

For my next DFS competition, I will be trying my luck at the “Classic” Double Up, which is where you start a QB, two RBs, three WRs, a TE, a Flex, and a DST. There are three things I am going to try and focus on for this: implied totals, player usage, and price. Here is the first process I made:

The Process

Look at implied totals, identify the teams with the highest totals, and select players from those teams
Look at usage on those teams. Identify any players that have higher usage, especially redzone usage.
I don’t have any specific way to work with price yet but at this point it will just look at cheap players that satisfy part two, have strong usage or specifically redzone usage, and could easily get a TD. Players that benefit from in-week injuries will also be strongly considered as they will most likely be under-priced.

The Process in Action

For the first try, I do not want to dive all the way into a full weekend of games and I am going to enter the Sunday early only competition on DraftKings that only includes 10 games.

For ease, I used this article from Rotocurve to look at implied team totals. This data shows me I want my lineup to include DAL, TB, GB, TEN, IND, or ATL players.
I am going to plug in Ezekiel Elliott and Davante Adams as automatic plays. Their usage and chance to score touchdowns just cannot be ignored. These players might be a little chalky but I am okay with that at this point in the process. Adding more players from the 6 teams above, I see Nyheim Hines from the Colts at $5,300 and then add Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage from the Falcons at $6,800 and $4,800 each. Again I really don’t care about ownership percentages because I am not trying to create an elite lineup, but one that scores more than most people.
Some undervalued players due to injury are Corey Davis at $4,000 and Chris Herndon at $3,400. Both these players will benefit from injuries in their teams with A.J. Brown and Crowder both out, and Corey Davis fits the process from part 1. I am left looking for a bargain defense with $2,800 left and that perfectly gives me enough for the Rams DST against the Eagles. I was going to try and get a defense that was playing against a team with a low implied team total but I cannot pass up Aaron Donald rushing against that injured Eagles OL.

While I’m not extremely confident in this process, the point of this series is to make a quick process and I think this is a good start. Check back next week as I dive into what went right and wrong and learn from my mistakes to become a better DFS player.

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