Beer Money Bets | Creating a Process for NFL DFS Pt. 4

I experienced my first bad beat last week. Sitting with 3 out of 4 contests in the money with less than 4 mins remaining, I started feeling confident about my process last week. Then garbage time hit and Derek Carr threw a touchdown to Hunter Renfrow with 1:54 remaining in the Patriots vs Raiders game. The game quickly finished and I ended up missing out on the money by 0.09 points. After briefly tilting, I realized I was only a Derek Carr TD from my process being profitable and I was still even for the week. The process seems to be working and I am now only having to make small tweaks instead of major corrections.

Reviewing the Process (Last Weeks Process):

1. I looked at the Raiders @ New England game and focused on Cam Newton, Josh Jacobs, Julian Edelman, Derek Carr, Darren Waller, N’Keal Harry, Sony Michel, Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow, and Rex Burkhead since they had the top 10 projected points. 
2. Game did not fit any of the 3 set categories but it turned into both a shootout and a blowout. This part of the process wasn’t successful this week but I think there’s no reason right now to adjust the process. 
3. If only I had played Rex Burkhead or Sony Michel at Captain since they went off. While that would have been great, I don’t think selecting Edelman as the captain was a bad choice. It was just an off day for the patriots pass offense. Not selecting Cam Newton let me select Burkhead so I will continue to not select expensive options if I need to save salary. 
4. Here I created values by multiplying the projected points per $100 by the percent of times that type of player is found on optimal lineups (found in last week’s article). I used those values to fill my lineup by selecting the players with the highest values. This gave me a lineup of Newton, Michel, Edelman, Jacobs, Burkhead, and Harry. I really liked this process and will continue to use it going forward. It was easy and I ended up doing it for 2 other contests. I went 1-2 overall in the 3 games I did this in, but the Patriots game was so close that I don’t necessarily count it as a loss. I will continue to do this and see if it ends up being profitable. 

Onto the new process, I want to change my process for Classic lineup from the early only games to the afternoon slate. This brings the games from 10 to only 3 and so I will have to change my process to accommodate that. I have really liked my process for Classic lineups already so I hope it translates well to a smaller number of games. 

New Process for Smaller Slate Classic Double Ups:

1. Look at implied totals, identify the teams with the highest totals and select players from those teams. With a small slate, this might just be 2-3 teams.
2. Sort players from these teams by projected points per $100 (remember I use Peter Howard’s DFS data from his Patreon for this). Choose at least one RB, two WR, and a Flex from these teams. Do not be afraid to go for high priced and chalky players, these are the studs of the lineup.
3. To solidify the rest of the players in the lineup, look for players that are not on these top teams but perform well in projected points per $100. Select a QB this way, looking for possibly getting a discount on QB. Look for players that could be discounted by looking for players that benefit from an in-week injury. Discounts can also be pass-catching RBs on heavy underdogs.
4. Do not spend a lot of salary on the DST, I am prepared for this to be a dart throw and don’t want to spend a lot of money.

The Process in Action:

1. Looking at the three afternoon games, the Rams and Chiefs have the highest implied team totals in this slate. 
2. Selecting a RB, two WRs, and the Flex from these two teams based on projected points per $100 salary gives me CEH at RB, Tyreek Hill, and Robert Woods at WR, and then Sammy Watkins at the Flex.
3. To fill out the rest of the roster, I chose Cam Newton since he had the highest value for projected points per $100 salary. N’Keal Harry is also at the top of the list. Darrell Henderson looks like a value too, and also comes at a slight injury discount given the injuries in the Rams backfield. Finally, TE I have some salary left to spend so I will cash in on Travis Kelce. 
4. I am left with $2,800 for defense and have a choice between the Raiders and Giants DST. The Bills have a lower implied total against the Raiders than the Rams versus the Giants so I am going to roll with the Raiders as my cheap defense.

In addition to this new format, I am going to continue to play my early only Classic game process. If it cashes, I am going to declare that process finished and profitable. To be this close to having a successful process this early in the season gives me confidence in the rest of my processes going forward. Good luck this week and if you have any questions, you can find me on twitter @bpofsu. Also for all of your DFS needs, check out Paulie’s DFS Sleepers and Michael Reedy’s Money Makers and Heart Breakers here at The Undroppables. 

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