With COVID-19 affecting the whole world, it is no wonder that football, and by extension fantasy football, has been affected as well. With uncertainty around player opt-outs, players contracting COVID-19, or being placed on the reserve list before and during the season, fantasy managers must adjust their draft and in-season strategies significantly. In this COVID-19 Late Round Redraft Strategy Guide, I will propose three main strategies to minimize the adverse impacts of COVID-19 for fantasy football.
Helpful Terminology
Here are some common terms that are worth understanding for this unique 2020 season:
Reserve/COVID-19 List: Players who have either contracted COVID-19 or have been in close contact with individuals who have tested positive for the virus. NFL teams cannot disclose which category a player belongs to, and thus timetables for return are nebulous.
Opt-Out List: Players who have opted out of the 2020 NFL season. There are two categories: high and low risk (category affects compensation and cap hits for 2020/2021). Players had until August 6th to opt out, however can do so later due to medical or family reasons.
Active/PUP List: Players could have been placed on this list before training camp practices had begun due to a football-related injury. Players can return when healthy, however then they cannot return to the PUP list.
Reserve/PUP List: If players on the Active/PUP List are not ready to play in Week 1, they can be moved to the Reserve/PUP List. These players cannot return for the first six weeks of the season, however don’t count against the 53-man roster. After these six weeks, players have an additional six weeks to begin practicing. Teams have 21 days after that to decide if the player will be activated to the 53-man roster, be released, or go back on the PUP (if still not ready to play). If a player cannot practice within that six-week window (7-12), they remain on the PUP List. For more information, feel free to check this link out.
Strategy: Handcuffing RBs?
Handcuffing players in fantasy football means drafting their backup to contribute at a high level if an injury occurs to the starter. Handcuffs can occasionally have standalone value as well, for instance committee running backs like Kareem Hunt. So is this strategy worth it for your fantasy team?
Pros:
- High-End Handcuffs can step in and become RB1s if injuries occur.
- High-End Handcuffs can also have standalone value in platoon situations.
- Positional scarcity means that handcuffs often have the most upside of any player around the same draft position.
- These potential “league-winners” can be found in the double-digit rounds.
Cons:
- Handcuffs can occupy roster spots without providing week-to-week value
- Most handcuffs rely on injuries to starters to become playable
- Many handcuffs don’t prove their value until the starter gets injured, and thus won’t necessarily demonstrate early on whether they’re worth keeping on your roster. If they don’t show promise quickly, they’ll be on the waiver wire.
- Going too “handcuff-heavy” can result in a lack of startable depth in the event of injuries, poor performance, and bye weeks for your own running back corps.
Verdict
Handcuffing running backs is a smart strategy if implemented properly. Managers must strike a balance between handcuffs and startable depth, valuing both upside and stability. Handcuffs can be drafted regardless of whether you drafted the starter, however if the starter is owned then the handcuff is slightly more valuable. COVID-19 increases the chances that a player will miss time, making high-end handcuffs even more valuable.
Here are some common RB handcuffs that are worth rostering in redraft leagues: Kareem Hunt, Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, Latavius Murray, J.K. Dobbins, Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, James White, Tarik Cohen, Zack Moss, Kerryon Johnson, Matt Breida, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Darrell Henderson, Antonio Gibson, DeAndre Washington.
Other handcuffs to keep on your radar: Ryquell Armstead, Darrynton Evans, Duke Johnson, Justin Jackson (one of my favorite late round targets), A.J. Dillon, Reggie Bonnafon, Giovani Bernard, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller (especially if indications surface of Sony Michel’s recovery not progressing well).
Strategy: Drafting Safe Options in the Later Rounds?
Drafting known commodities in the later rounds that can fill in due to injuries or unforeseen circumstances is always valuable, however it’s even more important given the COVID-19 factor.
Pros:
- Minimizes risk in a season filled with uncertainty.
- Can provide flex-level startable assets.
- Can be counted on for consistent production.
- Role in the offense is often known.
Cons:
- Doesn’t provide league-winning upside.
- Too much safe depth could lead to wasted roster spots, as some dependable players won’t make your starting lineup enough times to justify this strategy.
- Breakout chances are lower.
- Not viable at every position or in every format (SF/2QB)
Verdict
With COVID-19 eliminating the preseason and affecting training camp, 2020 production is more uncertain for late-round selections than in years past. With increased chances for starters to miss time in the regular season, safe options on your bench are needed. The key is to strike an appropriate balance between upside and safety, and a good rule of thumb is to keep at least 2 safe options on your bench that you can count on for production (for standard sized redraft leagues).
Drafting safe options in the later rounds works best for the WR position, as RB depth is severely depleted in the double digit rounds and QB depth is not needed for standard 1QB leagues. For SF/2QB leagues, QB depth in the later rounds is often restricted to quarterbacks in nebulous situations, and thus safe options are often not present. Late round tight ends have historically been speculative picks as well, and thus don’t fit this strategy.
Strategy: Drafting Rookies?
With COVID-19 shortening offseasons and preventing rookies from learning the system and developing chemistry with their teams, it’s worth examining whether investing in rookies is smart this year.
Pros:
- Uncertainty surrounding future NFL production can create a wide range of outcomes, creating high upside relative to similarly valued veteran players.
- Rookies can quickly build value with early successes.
- Rookies often have higher breakout potential than other late round players.
Cons:
- Shortened preparation in the preseason will hurt rookies who need the time to learn their offensive system and develop trust with their QB/Coach.
- Rookie tight ends are practically undraftable historically, while Rookie wide receivers are typically not very productive until the end of the season.
- Rookies have a lower floor than similarly valued veterans.
Verdict
Drafting rookies in redraft leagues this season is generally unadvised at their cost. No rookie TE or QB should be drafted in standard redraft settings, and all rookie receivers are volatile, later round targets at best. Be sure to watch training camp reports, as these can have significant impacts on rookies.
Despite shortened preseasons, there are still some rookies that should be drafted in most redraft leagues (in no particular order): Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Johnathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Zack Moss, Antonio Gibson, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Jalen Reagor, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs III, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr.
Others in consideration:
- Denzel Mims: Potential to become the Jets #1 WR in production, but likely not in targets because of Jamison Crowder.
- Laviska Shenault: An electric gadget player who could take on a significant role as the season progresses.
- Bryan Edwards: Very talented WR that fell in the NFL draft due to his injuries. He projects to be a starting perimeter WR.
- Joshua Kelley: Watch the splits between Kelley and Jackson in training camp and early on in the season.
- Anthony McFarland: Potential for standalone opportunity and an expanded role if James Conner goes down. McFarland comes with his own injury concerns.
- Darrynton Evans: A handcuff with deep PPR appeal.
- A.J. Dillon: Purely a handcuff.
Final Thoughts
COVID-19 has made a massive impact on fantasy football strategy for 2020. By balancing upside and safety in the late rounds, your squad will be able to weather the increased injuries and missed time that will result, while also swinging for the fences with picks that can win your league. With all the troubles in the world, hopefully fantasy football can serve as a fun escape this season. So, good luck in 2020 and beyond!
Follow Vivek Iyer on Twitter for more fantasy football content! If you would like to read more articles, such as our offseason team breakdown series, feel free to check them out on theundroppables.com. Thank you for reading!
