The Undroppables - David Montgomery

In an environment where we’re all thirsty for football content due to lack of preseason action, overreactions happen. I’m not shaming anyone; I’ve done it, we all have. On Wednesday we got our first taste of the overreaction frenzy as Chicago Bears’ RB David Montgomery went down with an injury. The Twitter world rushed to the scene:

“Montgomery torn ACL – done for the season.”
“How long until Bears call Devonta Freeman?”
“Scratch the knee injury; it was a non-contact lower extremity injury – likely Achilles.”

When the dust finally settled, it was confirmed that Montgomery had a groin injury. A big deal? Yes, but likely not a season-ender. I’ll discuss the fantasy implications for Montgomery below:

#Bears RB David Montgomery slipped and has a groin injury. Video below shows obvious pain— Nagy “hopes” it isn’t severe. @ABC7Chicago pic.twitter.com/cGkPoyNdmA
— Dionne Miller (@dmillerabc7) August 26, 2020

Groin Strain

Groin strains are difficult because there’s some uncertainty around what musculature is actually injured. The “groin” is a non-specific term. As the picture shows below, groin is the joining of multiple muscle groups. Groin strains have also been referred to as sports hernias or adductor strains based on what muscles are specifically affected, which can further add to confusion. In the end, it doesn’t really matter as they all present the same. Sports hernias tend to show up better on MRIs, and therefore would supply a more definitive diagnosis, while adductor strains are less accurate [1].

Expected Timeline

What everyone wants to know is how long is David Montgomery going to be out. A lot of it depends on the severity of the injury. Based on the video, initially my thoughts are that it doesn’t look good. Montgomery appears to be in a lot of pain, and he’s unable to put weight on his left leg. To me, that says that Montgomery is likely dealing with a moderate to severe groin strain (potentially more) and his Week 1 status is in jeopardy.

David Montgomery Injury Thread.
Video: https://t.co/V5Ut4ziDDf
— Ethan Turner (@ETurnerFF_PT) August 26, 2020

Best Case Scenario:

Best case, Montgomery has a Grade I/II (minimal to moderate) adductor strain/tear. He is likely to look at a 3-4 week timeline before he returns to football activities [2]. With this being a soft tissue injury, there’s a chance of re-aggravation should he return too soon. We could see him be a late scratch throughout the season due to various flare-ups.

Worse Case Scenario:

If Montgomery’s injury is more severe, (Grade III adductor strain/sports hernia) then he’s looking at a much longer timeline. If it’s deemed that surgery is not needed, then the average return-to-sport timeline for Montgomery would be around 4-6 weeks. Granted, this length of time really depends on where the injury is, the severity of the tear, and how Montgomery does with pain tolerance. If Montgomery suffered a complete tear, then he would need surgery to repair the damaged musculature. Look for any reports that indicate that Montgomery heard an audible “pop” in his hip, as this can indicate a complete tear and suggest surgery is needed. If surgery is needed, Montgomery would miss at least 6 weeks, although some evidence recently has shown high-level athletes being able to return as early as 5 weeks [3]. If either of these were the case, then I would expect Chicago to place him on the reserve PUP, meaning he would miss a minimum of 6 weeks.

Other possible Diagnosis:

Montgomery is going to get an MRI to confirm his diagnosis and in the coming days we should have more clarity. Based on his mechanism of injury, it’s possible that he suffered a labral tear in his left hip, maybe even a fracture. Both of these would be more serious and require surgery that would effectively end his season.

Fantasy Impact

A groin strain is a soft tissue injury and an uncomfortable spot on the body. For that reason it can linger. A variety of movements can be potentially problematic, but specifically speaking, twisting/pivoting and sprinting pose the biggest threat.

If Montgomery only has a Grade I/II strain, I think that at least early on we see the Bears limit his workload. This will likely mean he becomes less involved in the passing game, a step that I was hoping he would take this season when I wrote the Bears offseason breakdown. If you haven’t drafted yet in your fantasy leagues, his mid-4th round ADP would be a little high for me, and I would probably drop him into the late 5th behind the likes of Cam Akers, James White, and D’Andre Swift.

I am less worried about him injuring himself on a breakaway run, because that’s not Montgomery’s strong suit. Montgomery only had one run of over 50 yards and 4 total plays of 20-30 yards last season. He’s not a sprinter, and instead operates better in short, intermediate spaces.

From a dynasty perspective, even if Montgomery has surgery for a groin strain, it’s a non-issue. Re-injury rates one year after are extremely low at 8% [2].

Watch for what the Bears do in the coming weeks. If Chicago brings in a veteran with minimal financial investment, then Monty’s injury is short term. If they sign someone like Devonta Freeman or trade for a player, this indicates that the Bears need a more reliable option. This would be worse for Montgomery’s 2020 outlook. Tarik Cohen wouldn’t be able to handle a full workload, so Chicago will have to do something if there’s any doubt about Montgomery’s availability.