EQUATION CONSTRUCTION
I wanted to develop a “formula” to help differentiate between players and help decide how to find the best players when drafting for Redraft leagues. That leads me to concentrate on a few areas for rookie evaluation for redraft leagues that, when combined, give me a solid chance at finding some players that will help me win some championships. These variables for the formula are Draft Capital, Opportunities, Supporting Cast, and Draft Profile.
Draft Capital – The higher the player is drafted in the NFL Draft, historically, that player is given the most excellent chance of success in the NFL. But, again, this goes for fantasy purposes; these players generally correlate to having the most success in fantasy football.
Opportunities – There are so many given snaps in the NFL and even more limited options for players to touch the football (outside of the quarterback and center). These players project to have a healthy snap/target usage, and being healthy will be graded here.
Supporting Cast – This is purely subjective, but I feel that some positions (wide receivers and quarterbacks) benefit greatly when they have an excellent supporting cast for rookies, specifically for fantasy. Running backs and tight ends generally aren’t swayed too much from their situations, but it is still good to include them for tiebreakers and one-of cases.
Draft Profile – Trust your process when you evaluate rookies. If you are high on a rookie but fell in the draft, still believe in their rookie profile. They are the same athletes they were before the draft; don’t let the draft capital completely change your opinion of the player.
2022 ROOKIE QB REVIEW
As last year’s article mentioned, this draft class had nothing to offer for redraft value, and I was spot on. Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder were only relevant, and each finished with one week, whereas they finished as QB1 for the week. Kenny had the most starts, which correlates to what we mentioned based on his Draft capital that he would have the most opportunity, but both QBs are now projected starters for their teams in their Year 2 campaign.
Draft Capital
Unlike the 2022 NFL Draft, 2023 was full of quarterbacks that went much higher in the draft. In case you were not aware, here are all the quarterbacks that were taken in the first three rounds:
All the first-round QBs will have a chance at being the starter right away, which is why we add this to the equation. Both of the later-round QBs will have paths but need something to change, which is acceptable for monitoring on the waiver wire, but you should steer away from your draft.
Opportunities
Focusing on the first-rounders, all three will be starters for the 2023 season and could develop into QB2 options if you are in a Superflex league for your redraft season. Anthony Richardson is the name to focus on since his rushing ability will give him a safe weekly floor. Will Levis has a chance to be a starter if Tannehill shows any signs of regression and the Titans start to lose in the standings. They will want to see what they have in their young QB, and with Treylon Burks and DeAndre Hopkins to throw to, there might be some possibility to have some good numbers for those late by weeks.
Bryce Young and CJ Stroud will both also be starters right away as well. The issue with all the rookie QBs is that you aren’t necessarily looking to start any of them immediately in redraft. I would feel much better drafting a veteran QB and either taking a late-round flier if you have the bench space on these quarterbacks or waiting for the waiver wire to pick one of them up.
Supporting Cast
Each situation is very different, looking at the rookie quarterbacks from this draft class. Starting with the first overall, Bryce Young has possibly the best supporting cast around them. Frank Reich is a great head coach and has worked with several of the best quarterbacks, bringing in Josh McCown as the quarterbacks’ coach to help the rookie get up to the NFL game speed. Miles Sanders is a good receiving back, and the wide receiver and tight end rooms have a nice mix of veterans and youth.
CJ Stroud joins a team with some excellent but untapped talent at all the skill positions, with one of the league’s best-left tackles also protecting him. The offense may not be great this year, but it might surprise us on some Sundays.
Will Levis certainly has the best wide receivers out of the group, already mentioning DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks, along with Chigoziem Okonkwo playing as a tremendous young tight-end. The run game would also be helpful; I’d be very excited if Will Levis decides to take over that offense.
Anthony Richardson is potentially losing their starting running back to ownership fumbling the bag, but with Michael Pittman still there and Alec Pierce on the outside – I can see Richardson having some monster weeks but very reliant on what he does with his legs.
Draft Profile
Each quarterback is highly rated as a prospect, with Will Levis being a “surprise” to fall out of the first round. I would look at what other analysts have said about each player individually, but the consensus is that each has its strengths for the NFL and may start to shine earlier than projected.
Results
Considering each factor for the quarterbacks, I am potentially going in on Anthony Richardson – especially in a Superflex/2QB league. The upside that he has with his athleticism is too good to not take a chance on. I am OK with CJ Stroud and Bryce Young for Superflex as well. However, if this is a very traditional redraft league, I’m only taking Richardson for a deep flier. For Will Levis, monitor how the season goes and start to look at picking him up for bye-week fillers since we have some very dangerous late-week byes this year.
