Fantasy Redraft Formula – Rookie RB Edition

Equation Construction

I wanted a way to come up with a “formula” to help differentiate between players and to help decide on how to find the best players for when I am drafting for Redraft leagues. That leads me to concentrate on a few areas for rookie evaluation for redraft leagues that, when combined, give me a solid chance at finding some players that will help me win some championships. These variables for the formula are Draft Capital, Opportunities, Supporting Cast, and Draft Profile.

Draft Capital – The higher team drafted the player in the NFL Draft; historically, that player has more opportunities to get a greater chance of success in the NFL. But, again, this goes for fantasy purposes; these players generally correlate to having the most success in fantasy football.

Opportunities – There are a limited number of given snaps in the NFL and even more limited options for opportunities (plays with the ball). All players that project to be healthy and primary usage in their offenses get their calculation here.

Supporting Cast – This is purely subjective, but I feel that some positions (Wide Receivers and Quarterbacks) greatly benefit when they have an excellent supporting cast for rookies, specifically for fantasy. Running backs and tight ends generally aren’t swayed too much from their situations, but it is still good to include them for tiebreakers and one-of cases.

Draft Profile – Trust your process when you evaluate rookies. If you are high on a rookie but fell in the draft, still believe in their rookie profile. They are the same athlete they were before the draft, don’t let the draft capital completely change your opinion on the player.

2021 Rookie RB Review

Several rookie runnings backs from the 2021 draft class came out primed for an impact in fantasy, and most paid off at their ADP cost. Besides the early season-ending injury to Travis Etienne, most stayed healthy and had major seasons for their fantasy managers.

Almost all these running backs outperformed their 2021 ADP, except Trey Sermon. In the rookie RB battle between Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell after the Raheem Mostert injury news, many analysts and writers were going with the draft capital of Trey Sermon, and right up until the season, that was looking like the RB to own with Mostert injury. But after the season started, Elijah took over in that backfield. Javonte got the running back by committee treatment but still ended up as an excellent RB2 for most teams, and Michael Carter had some stellar weeks. The same was for Rhamondre, and Chuba had some weeks after Christian McCaffrey’s injury at the beginning of the year.

Draft Capital

With no first-round running backs, the draft capital is a little less weight for this draft class. Only Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, and James Cook have the second-round investment from this draft class. Here is a quick table to illustrate the running backs in the 2022 NFL Draft class:

All three running backs from the second round should be considered based on draft capital. Hall is a very talented RB, and Walker is in a position to take over right away with or without Rashaad Penny’s health concerns. James Cook was drafted as a receiving back; the Buffalo Bills spent the offseason trying to get J.D. McKissic as a receiving back, so I think the team is prioritizing that role in their offense. The running backs after that round could potentially get starting time this year, but it won’t be because of the early investment from their franchises.

Opportunities

Opportunities will be the primary deciding factor for running backs to be drafted in your redraft leagues. A player that earns significant snaps and routes and starts to get the bulk of the carries and catches is where you can get value on some of these backs. These tend to be the primary targets for Zero Running Back strategies since they can be drafted in the later rounds but can still get significant opportunities that can translate to sound production. With the wide range of outcomes, I’ll break down some of these backs based on similar situations for their direct paths for usage:

• Primary Back/Running Back By Committee (RBBC)
  • Breece Hall
  • Kenneth Walker III
  • Dameon Pierce
  • Brian Robinson Jr.
  • Tyler Allgeier
• Pass Catching Duties (Flex PPR play)
  • James Cook
  • Rachaad White
• RB Successor (Injury/Suspension to Primary Back)
  • Zamir White
  • Isaiah Spiller
  • Snoop Conner
  • Jerome Ford
  • Keaontay Ingram
• Preseason/Training Camp Hype Trains
  • Isiah Pacheco
  • Trestan Ebner

I would typically draft from the top tier and down. Those first five will have the best chance of impacting this year on redraft, followed by the pass-catching running backs. Monitoring the other two tiers during the season would be wise since things change all the time (Khalil Herbert and Elijah Mitchell are prime examples last year that were able to produce when called up). The hype trains are fantastic to watch, and you hope they pay off (who doesn’t want to root for 7th round RBs to succeed?) but be careful not to get sucked in.

Supporting Cast

The supporting cast for a running back is factored by the offensive line and the offensive play calling. Looking at our expert Brad’s Offensive Line Rankings, we can use this as part of our equation when deciding if one of these rookie RBs will be of good value in the draft. The coaching staff that primarily runs the ball will also help some players, looking at Walker mostly as Pete Carroll is known for wanting to run the ball in every game. Another part of the supporting cast that might play a factor is the starting quarterback in two ways. Historically, a mobile quarterback has aided the back’s running efficiency. The other way a QB can help is a veteran QB that favors checking it down instead of pushing the ball down the field. When evaluating some of these backs during the season when waiver wires are hitting, keep those in mind.

Draft Profile

As always, I will use the Undroppables Rookie Guide to evaluate and use their scores for my formula; you should also know to help you a leg up on the competition in your home league! The primary backs that look like they will be league winners from our profiles are Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker.  Some players like Spiller, White, and Cook all have significant attributes to their profile, but Hall and Walker seem to be the best overall backs for fantasy purposes.

Result

First time in the series this year where the equation will have some players that I recommend to draft in Redraft leagues! I will break it up into a couple of lists for players that I would draft and then players that I will monitor for waiver wires:

Players I am Drafting in Redraft in Order

1. Breece Hall
2. Kenneth Walker III
3. Dameon Pierce
4. Tyler Allgeier
5. Brian Robinson

Players I am Monitoring for Waiver Wire In Order

1. James Cook
2. Rachaad White
3. Isaiah Spiller
4. Jerome Ford
5. Zamir White
6. Keaontay Ingram
7. Snoop Conner
8. Isiah Pacheco
9. Trestan Ebner

Good luck with your drafts this year, and please follow me on Twitter for all Redraft advice and my weekly articles at The Undroppables!

Please support us on Patreon!