With the NFL season winding down, it’s time to start diving into the 2024 rookie class. Here’s a look at the top 5 QB prospects from my perspective.
1. Jayden Daniels
Jayden Daniels stands listed at a long 6 -4, 210 pounds. Having started his career at Arizona State under Herm Edwards, Jayden looked to be oozing with talent from the jump. Flanked by San Franciso WR Brandon Aiyuk, Daniels started his first career game in 2019 as a true freshman. He’s been a starter ever since that day. Upon transferring to LSU for the 2022 season, he put up solid stats, boasting a 17-3 touchdown to interception ratio. The 2023 season is where s**t got real. Jayden put up a 40-3 TD to INT ratio, passing for almost 4,000 yards. On top of that massively impressive leap in passing, Daniels also ran for 1,100 yards and led his Tigers to a 9-3 record. Jayden is blessed with the tools that make your jaw hit the floor, allowing one to remember what is so exciting about football.
The arm possessed by Daniels, paired with his rushing ability, is something you seldom see in an NFL draft prospect. Aside from owning these qualities, Jayden is a humble, well spoken young man who stood up on the stage a few weeks ago and accepted the heisman trophy, therefore joining the god awful heisman house commercials. What jumps off the tape to me when watching Jayden is his calm demeanor in the pocket. Quite often you see him doing something I refer to as “Burrowing”. Burrowing is when the QB is able to make the rush miss while keeping both hands on the ball for ball security. In addition, he carefully keeps both eyes downfield to locate his target. He has a bazooka of an arm that is hand-crafted with gold and silk. He not only puts gas on the ball, but he can also virtually reach out and hand the ball to the receiver in his hip pocket from 40 yards out. If the U.S. Army were to create a drone that could drop moonshot footballs into receivers from 30,000 feet, they would have to paint a purple and yellow “5” on the side of it. Flanking Daniels this season has been two talents that have flourished beyond expectations this year. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. have both eaten fruit from the tree of success that is Jayden Daniels. All of these elite tools, mixed with a young man who can be trusted to be professional at the podium, as well as being the face of a franchise, have landed him at the very tippy top of my first set of rankings for the 2024 NFL QB draft class.
Ceiling Player Comp: Lamar Jackson
Ideal Landing Spot: New Orleans Saints
2. Drake Maye
Maye comes from a long lineage of UNC bloodline. His father Mark suited up as quarterback for the Tar Heels during the 1984-1987 seasons. His brother Luke is a campus legend, as he was a prized and valued member of the 2017 National Championship run. Not only did his brother Beau play for the Tar Heels, his other brother also played for Florida’s baseball team and went on to win the national championship in 2017. Drake may have never won a national title, but he is thought to be the best athlete of the Maye family litter. The NC prospect plays with a level of calm poise you rarely see in a young man who has to get off the plane and go back to the reality of apartment living and midterm studying. Drake does not rely on flashy arm angles or elite athletic ability in terms of his legs, but damn can this kid play football. That’s not to say he can’t make people miss or throw touchdowns left-handed. He can make every throw on the field, far hash to sideline, flag route, tight window, timing routes, and even the layups. He’s got a level of athleticism that doesn’t jump off the page, but keeps middle linebackers up at night due to his ability to pull it out any time. Drake has started the last two seasons (2022 and 2023) while compiling 8,000 yards and 62 touchdowns.
Having spent so much time running RPO sets in college, he will be able to bring traditional style of play to a new school and ever changing offensive NFL. He gives me old soul vibes and I think he will have no problem winning over any locker room you put him in at the next level. During his time at UNC, he had solid talent around him but never anybody who would explode off the page. Most notably his WR from the 2022 season, Josh Downs. That gives me confidence knowing he can go into a situation without the best weapons and without the sturdiest of coaching staffs, and still turn water into wine. What stands out to me most about Maye is his ability to get everybody involved. This can also be a sign of no true alpha pass catcher, but I believe this makes life hard for defensive coordinators to truly take away what he wants to do. The top 3 receivers for UNC this past season all had roughly the same amount of yards on the season and he’s not afraid to utilize the tight end with Bryson Nesbit reeling in about 600 yards and 5 touchdowns on the year. I look forward to Drake taking a page out of his brother’s playbook at the next level, and acting as a floor general bringing out the best in all those around him.
Ceiling Player Comp: Dak Prescott
Ideal Landing Spot: New England Patriots
3. Caleb Williams
Caleb. Williams. Maybe I’m wrong putting him this far down the list although 3rd out of however many total prospects is nothing to sneeze about. Williams began his career at the University of Oklahoma under Lincoln Riley. During his initial time on campus, he spent his days backing up former University of South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler. Upon winning the job at Oklahoma, he went on to have a very stellar year which translated to him following his head coach to USC and becoming a Trojan for his final two years of college. Caleb went on to have a dazzling 2022 season where he displayed his absolute rocket ship of an arm and creativity extending plays in the pocket. Williams went on to win the Heisman award in 2022, capping off a fantastic 11-3 season and being 8-1 in conference play. The 2023 season seemed to be more of a kick in the pants than a victory lap for Caleb Williams in terms of overall success. For a regular run of the mill prospect, a team built by Lincoln Riley was assembled on promises of F-150’s and cash. This was for lack of a better word, a disappointment. Not only for the team but for Caleb as well. The reason I have Caleb down at #3 is for this exact reason. There is no denying this young man’s God-given talent to throw a football really hard, but his numbers against top-25 opponents versus non top-25 opponents are puzzling. Caleb did great at kicking the s**t out of opponents like Nevada and boasted a 70% completion rating that averaged about 320 yards through the air. Against top-25 teams, his numbers dropped to 51% completion rating and 172 average yards in the air. That is quite the cliff to be stepping off when it comes to playing against other guys who will play on Sunday. Sure, it’s nice to beat the hell out of guys who will be coaching high school football next year, but for me, I need to see you succeed against the best to be crowned the messiah of football. The issues don’t stop there. As many players do, Caleb wears his heart on his sleeve while on the field, but a claim came out off the field before this college season ended that made me take an even further step back on Caleb. It has come out of Caleb’s camp that he would like part ownership in whatever team decides to draft him. We have seen this in other sports, primarily soccer, and only after “GOAT” or even “Very Good” status has already been achieved. Not after losing to Utah and UCLA and Oregon and Washington and probably Utah a second time.
That all being said, Caleb Williams is still an absolute phenom of talent, yet I struggle to believe he can fit into any locker room like past 1.01 QBs. Guys like Bryce, Trevor, and Burrow are ones that I believe could be placed into any locker room and win over everyone by the end of training camp. I think Caleb will need to land with a coach who finds ways to pluck the talent and stroke the ego in a formula that brings the team along with him. A perfect example for who I think could do this is a guy like Mike McDaniel, but unfortunately, there’s only one of him and he’s not in Chicago. After all this negativity, you have to give him flowers for his positive attributes. Caleb is the best improviser in the class and it’s really not close. The NFL is rigid and tough, but the great QBs find ways to make plays off-schedule to extend the play, drive, and/or season. Caleb is elite in terms of turning his back to the play but being able to keep track of where everyone is; doing so with eyes in the back of his head, ripping a sidearm ball past the earhole of a linebacker, and right into his receivers gut. The kid can play ball. Built like Baker Mayfield, he’s a bit undersized but that hasn’t hurt any aspect of his physical or mental game. He’s able to efficiently navigate the pocket, and has the legs to run for big yards when given the opportunity. He’s not Lamar, Kyler or AR athletic, but he’s every bit as athletic as Lawrence, Young, or Watson. On paper, he’s a mindblowing candidate. I just have my reservations. Could I be completely wrong? Absolutely. But I don’t think he is the guy I would want to be the face of my franchise for the next 10-15 years as opposed to the two previously listed candidates.
Ceiling Player Comp: Josh Allen
Ideal Landing Spot: Las Vegas Raiders
4. Michael Penix
Michael Penix has been through one of the most adverse college stories we’ve seen in a long time. Having started his college career in 2018 as a true freshman at Indiana, Penix was only able to play three games before tearing his ACL and ending his season. Penix would remain at Indiana only to suffer the same fate in 2020 upon tearing his other ACL. Many believed we had seen the peak of Michael’s career as he had been cursed with debilitating injuries and doubt began to cloud the future of the young superstar. Michael transferred to Washington and began his career as a Husky in 2022 putting up dazzling numbers that included his current career high of 4,641 yards. In 2023, Penix and the Huskies exploded and are currently set to play in the College Football Playoff boasting a 13-0 record. Penix would be officially labeled as a left-handed pocket passer who has an affinity for the deep ball.
These past two seasons he’s been paired with superstar Wide Receiver Rome Odunze who has generated an electric chemistry with Penix reminiscent of Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds since day one. Penix is the least rushing dependent of any of the QB’s aforementioned. He relies heavily on his pocket presence and arm talent. Not to say Penix can’t escape the pocket when needed, but the pocket is exactly where Michael thrives and is most confident. Penix can bring some serious value to a team with his cerebral approach and ability to keep teams in two high safety sets. I envision Michael as a career backup which is nothing to turn your nose up at. Traditionally Draft Classes have one to two guys pop at the QB position and the others fizzle out unless it’s the class with Herbert, Burrow, and Tua in which everybody popped. Penix can land in an organization and provide solid depth on day one. He takes care of the ball, pushes it downfield, and can extend plays. I foresee him being in the NFL for a very long time. Being that he is left-handed, it could be hard to place him in a system that isn’t already built around it. Being left-handed versus right-handed doesn’t sound like much of a problem, but a lot of plays in the NFL are built around timing and the timing of every single move of the QB from the snap. I would label him as being a PRIME candidate to back up Tua in Miami for the depth of target that the scheme bolsters, the run game, and the lack of need for the QB to make plays with his feet under Mike McDaniel.
Ceiling Player Comp: Kenny Pickett
Ideal Landing Spot: Miami Dolphins
5. Bo Nix
Like most of the class listed above, Bo is an elder statesman of college football. Lately seems to be looked at as something NFL teams value since the longer you stay in school, the more reps you get, the more developed you become, and the more ready you are to learn an NFL offense efficiently and effectively. Bo followed in his father Patrick’s footsteps and started his college career at the University of Auburn. As a true freshman against his eventual team, the Oregon Ducks, and current starting Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert, Bo was able to lead his Auburn Tigers to a comeback win and cement himself as the “Guy” on campus. That very same season, he was able to topple Alabama in the Iron Bowl and cement himself in Auburn History. Nix would spend the first three seasons of his collegiate career with the Tigers upon transferring westward to the University of Swag, Oregon University. Nix’s game appeared to mature along the way throughout his career. After some injuries in his final year at Auburn, Nix’s rushing averages went down and his passing numbers went up. Having never surpassed 2500 yards at Auburn, in his final two seasons at Oregon, he put up an eye-popping 7,700 yards and 69 touchdowns while remaining a rushing threat. Early in his college career, I believed him to be nothing but a Sam Ehlinger clone, and that still may be what he ultimately ends up being. Yet the playstyle maturity arc, efficiency, size, and dual-threat ability keep me coming back. Five QBs in this class going in the first round sounds asinine to me, but it’s a Quarterback league. I would project Nix to go somewhere in the mid-third round, or maybe sooner, but I’ve seen countless mock drafts of him going late first.
With Nix there is a lot to like, but the issue with him is as follows: there is a lot to like but not a lot to love. I don’t necessarily see any “elite” traits so to speak, so it’s hard to say that he will come in and make a crazy splash. What I can say for certain is that he does a lot of good things and he does them well. If Nix were to land in a system with an aging QB, and some electric weapons around him, he very well could be an excellent NFL player. If I had to single one specific trait about Nix that I would like to highlight, I would probably lean into his ability to extend plays with his legs. Nix does a very solid job on tape of making plays outside the pocket, and in today’s NFL, that is something teams value deeply. The days of pocket statues are all but behind us, especially with the emergence of bigger and better athletes bolstering defensive lines. I would love to see the Jets take Nix potentially in the second or third round as they plan to move on from Zach Wilson. Keeping Aaron Rodgers in the driver’s seat, but taking another shot at a QB, would allow him to start from square one. This is easier, and more desirable, than making it work with an ex that you’ve had 9 public break-ups with.
Ceiling Player Comp: Baker Mayfield
Ideal Landing Spot: New York Jets
