The Undroppables - Los Angeles Rams Offseason Breakdown %

The Rams began their offseason with key departures, cutting star RB Todd Gurley in a shocking turn of events. The Rams took on $20.15 million in dead cap for this move, severing ties with Gurley despite signing him to a 4-year extension just before the 2019 season. Subsequently, Los Angeles traded Brandin Cooks (and a 2022 fourth rounder) to the Houston Texans in exchange for a second round pick. In the NFL Draft, the Rams selected Cam Akers and Van Jefferson in the second round, drafting offensive players with four out of their nine picks. The Rams also signed Kevin O’Connell to be the team’s offensive coordinator. With all of these changes, there are numerous fantasy ramifications. Let’s examine these impacts in this Los Angeles Rams Offseason Breakdown.

Offense: A Breakdown

The Rams offense is one of the most difficult offenses to evaluate heading into the 2020 season. While several key members remain in place such as head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Jared Goff, their scheme shifts from last year make this year tricky to project. Before their Week 9 bye, the Rams ran 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) 80% of the time, and 12 personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB) only 11% of the time. After their bye week, the Rams ran 67% of snaps in 11 personnel and 30% of snaps in 12 personnel. This meant reduced snaps for players such as Cooper Kupp (as the slot receiver is not typically used in 12 personnel), and increased playing time for tight end Tyler Higbee, who turned into an absolute fantasy superstar when the scheme change occurred. The Rams had a 5-3 record pre bye week and a 4-4 record after their bye week. Going forward, projections for players in this offense will depend on the anticipated scheme implemented, making this offense difficult to navigate.

Quarterback

Jared Goff

Jared Goff is the new Kirk Cousins of fantasy football. Goff is a fine option, but is not exciting to draft and start. Goff finished last year as the QB13 overall, placing him as more of a QB streamer than an every week starter. Goff has shown upside in the past, finishing as the QB7 in 2018, but lacks the top-4 potential that can be found in other late round quarterbacks. I aim for upside with late round quarterbacks in 1QB leagues, as streaming the position is a viable option if a late-round quarterback doesn’t pan out. This makes Goff a low-end QB2 for me in redraft leagues, recognizing that he will likely finish as a strong QB2. In dynasty, Goff is a solid QB2 given his real-life production and stability.

Running Back

Cam Akers

Cam Akers was drafted in the second round this year out of Florida State. Akers projects to handle most of the first and second down work, and is a capable pass catcher that will garner significant receiving work in this offense. Akers has proven college production, totaling 231 carries and 30 receptions last season. He has a workhorse frame at 5’10” and 217 lbs, which is increasingly rare in today’s NFL with all the running back by committees out there. He needs to improve his pass protection to become an every-down option, but if he does he has a chance to take over this backfield in year one. Due to rookie uncertainty, Akers is a fringe RB2/3 with upside in redraft leagues, however in dynasty Akers is a solid RB2 due to his age, talent, and potential opportunity.

Darrell Henderson

Darrell Henderson was disappointing for fantasy managers last year. Despite early third round draft capital and Gurley’s arthritic knee, Henderson was unable to get onto the field and receive meaningful opportunity, finishing the year with only 39 carries. Henderson was an explosive prospect coming out of college, averaging 8.9 YPC at Memphis (albeit against weaker defenses). In his limited sample size last year, Henderson ranked sixth in yards created per touch behind an atrocious offensive line that ranked 31st by PFF in 2019. Henderson projects to be used as a change of pace back behind Cam Akers, and could have fantasy value if he outperforms his opportunity and earns more touches. In redraft, Henderson has upside as a later round pick, and has intriguing dynasty value given his draft capital and potential opportunity (as Cam Akers is unproven at the NFL level).

Wide Receiver

Robert Woods

Robert Woods is continually undervalued by the fantasy football community. In 2018, Woods finished as the WR11 despite being drafted outside of the top 100 picks. In 2019, Woods outperformed his ADP once again, finishing as the WR14 in PPR leagues while being drafted at pick 43 overall. In this year’s ADP, pick 43 corresponds with the WR17 off the board. Woods was dominant after the bye week, finishing as the WR6 in PPR from Week 10 to Week 17. Woods is a full-time starter in this offense, regardless of them using 11 or 12 personnel, and that stability makes him valuable for fantasy. While Woods does not have the touchdown upside of Cooper Kupp or other weapons, he is a candidate for positive touchdown regression as he only had 2 receiving TDs last year. He should be valued as a high-end WR2 for redraft leagues, despite his low ADP of WR19. In dynasty, Woods’ value should be downgraded to that of a low-end WR2 due to his age (28) and the appeal/upside of younger options.

Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp’s season was fragmented into two stretches; one of fantasy dominance and another of relative disappointment. Before his bye week, Kupp was one of the best receivers in football, averaging 99 receiving yards per game and nearly 11 targets per game in 8 games played. During this period, Kupp was the WR 3 in PPR points per game. With the transition to 12 personnel after Week 9, Kupp’s snap percentages tanked, finishing the year with inconsistent playing time (72% / 28% / 92% / 61% / 61% of snaps over the last 5 games). This negatively impacted his production, and he finished the year as the WR21 from Week 10 onward. Due to the impact of 12 personnel on slot receivers, Kupp has a wider range of outcomes than his ADP would otherwise indicate. With that in mind, Kupp has the highest TD upside on this team, and the departure of Todd Gurley could increase his red zone usage. He has a legitimate chance to lead the league in receiving touchdowns, finishing second last year with 10. Kupp is a high-end, volatile WR2 in redraft leagues with the upside to finish as the WR1 overall. In dynasty, Kupp maintains similar value as a strong WR2 with upside.

Here is a preview of how Cooper Kupp was affected by scheme changes in the Rams offense. As 1-2 Personnel Snap Percentages increased, Cooper Kupp's Snap Percentages tended to decrease. @TheUndroppables pic.twitter.com/3MdxkGzyYH
— Vivek Iyer (@FantasyandSport) July 16, 2020

Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds stands to benefit from the departure of Brandin Cooks in the offseason, filling in as the #3 WR in this offense. The Rams played at least three wide receivers on the field 77% of the time last year, and this didn’t decline when Cooks suffered injuries from Weeks 8-11 last season. In fact, during that time period, the Rams ran at least three wide receivers on the field 79% of the time, meaning that Reynolds will get significant opportunity in this offense. During this time, Reynolds was the WR41 in PPR points per game. He was also the WR36 in 2018 from Weeks 11-17 when Cooper Kupp was out of the lineup (despite the Rams Week 12 bye). Reynolds can be serviceable during bye weeks, despite the addition of Van Jefferson (who projects as more of a slot receiver, and thus might not hurt Reynolds’s production/playing time). As the current WR85 in ADP, Reynolds presents a solid value for fantasy players, and should be valued as a bye week fill-in for redraft leagues. In dynasty, Reynolds is a solid bench depth piece.

Van Jefferson

Van Jefferson was drafted in the second round this year out of Florida. Jefferson is a talented route runner that projects to be a slot receiver in the NFL, likely working behind Cooper Kupp and receiving playing time in four wide receiver sets. With his high draft capital, Jefferson has intriguing dynasty value as a rookie sleeper, however for redraft leagues he should go undrafted.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee

Tyler Higbee is the most difficult tight end to evaluate for 2020. Higbee had two “careers”. One from before Week 13 last season and the other post-Week 13. Higbee had never surpassed 25 receptions or 300 yards in his first three years, and was completely irrelevant for fantasy football purposes. On the contrary, Higbee finished as the TE1 from Week 13-Week 17 last season, averaging 21.4 points per game (The TE2 was Travis Kelce, who finished 23.2 points behind him during this stretch). Higbee never had fewer than 7 receptions during this period, and finished with four of five games of over 100 receiving yards. This coincided with a dramatic increase in snaps, as Higbee played 91% / 97% / 85% / 89% / 96% of snaps in those five games. So should we believe the end of last year? Or is that simply recency bias? The truth is likely between these two “careers.” Higbee’s production was simply unsustainable, as maintaining such production would catapult him to an “all-time great” trajectory, which cannot be predicted based on this small sample size. Still, Higbee’s performances should garner attention from the coaching staff, and will bode well for his redraft and dynasty value. Higbee projects as a mid-low tier TE1 for redraft leagues, however has the upside to finish within the top 3 tight ends this year. On the other hand, he has the potential to absolutely bust given that he had been irrelevant for fantasy before the end of last year. In dynasty, Higbee’s value should be downgraded to that of a fringe TE1 due to long-term production uncertainty.

Here is a preview of how Tyler Higbee was affected by scheme changes in the Rams offense. As 1-2 Personnel Snap Percentages increased, Tyler Higbee's Snap Percentages tended to increase as well.@TheUndroppables pic.twitter.com/nDpCd5Knt7
— Vivek Iyer (@FantasyandSport) July 16, 2020

Gerald Everett

Let’s get one thing out of the way… Gerald Everett has never been fantasy reliable for long stretches, even before Tyler Higbee’s emergence as Goff’s preferred target. Before Week 9 (their bye week), when Higbee was the TE29, Everett was the TE13 in PPR points per game. He was effectively a high-end streamer, and this is actually the best he has performed for fantasy in his career. He finished as the TE43 in 2017 (his rookie season), and the TE22 in 2018. Everett is extremely athletic, ranking 80th percentile or higher in 40-yard dash speed, burst score, agility score, and catch radius. He is a pass-catching tight end that cedes snaps to Higbee for blocking, however towards the end of last year even Everett’s pass catching took a back seat to Higbee’s. Everett is irrelevant for redraft leagues, however still has some dynasty value due to his contract expiring and his athleticism/skill set.

Brycen Hopkins

Brycen Hopkins was drafted in the fourth round out of Purdue this year. Hopkins is a smooth route-running tight end that was used downfield in college, never averaging less than 13.6 yards per reception over his three collegiate seasons. He is an athletic tight end, with a 75th percentile speed score and 82nd percentile 40 yard dash. Hopkins needs to work on his blocking to garner every down usage. This year, Hopkins has no fantasy relevance as two tight ends are ahead of him on the depth chart, however he has sneaky deep-roster dynasty value since Everett is an unrestricted free agent following this season.

Final Thoughts

The Rams are one of the most difficult teams to evaluate heading into the 2020 season. The differences in offensive scheme pre- and post- bye week last year had massive impacts on production for key players such as Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee, adding an element of volatility to the team’s fantasy outlook. With the departure of Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley, and the arrival of Cam Akers and Van Jefferson, the offense will look significantly different next year. Regardless of these changes, this offense is still loaded with fantasy relevant players for 2020 and beyond.