The Undroppables - Paulie's DFS Sleepers

Week 1 is finally here and with all of our redraft and dynasty fantasy football leagues who doesn’t have room for some daily (DFS)? This year I will be focusing on giving you some inexpensive upside value plays on Draft Kings so you have more money to pay up for the “big dogs”. These plays are primarily focused on a GPP “tournament” format, not typical cash (50/50 or H2H) games and are for the 13-game “main slate”. Let’s get on with it!

Quarterback

Gardner Minshew – $5,800

Minshew is that cheap QB play I’m always looking for to be able to pay up at other positions. We could have another garbage time Bortles 2.0 here only Minshew won’t wait until the 4th quarter to start racking up points for you. And the Colts secondary is the one aspect of this team that can definitely be attacked with the loss of CB Pierre Desir who was charged with locking down the opponent’s top weapon in 2019.

Mitchell Trubisky – $5,400

I know, I know…but if 2018 “Trubs” is back we know he is a QB that has GPP winning upside as he was the quarterback on not one but two Draft Kings “millionaire maker” line ups. The price point is good and the Lions secondary is nothing to brag about. Sometimes in DFS tourney plays you have to risk this type of play for the money!

Tyrod Taylor – $5,600

I am a sucker for mobile QBs and the Bengals gave up the most rushing yards to quarterbacks in 2019. Yes, I know, they had to play Lamar Jackson twice but let me build my narrative! The Bengals defense on the whole is not good and at this price, he won’t need to do much to pay dividends.

Running Back

Antonio Gibson – $4,000

Gibson is on my sleepers list for 2020 and I’ve talked about him on our podcast and guest appearances I have made on other podcasts since May. He has a very rare combination of size, speed, and athleticism that will make him very fun to watch in the NFL and very nice to have on your fantasy rosters. JD McKissic is named the starter and Peyton Barber is there too but that shouldn’t scare anyone. Per @FFBallAllDay, who is a scout for the Washington Football Team, they love Gibson and Bryce Love but Love will likely be brought along slowly or may even be absent for the first three games or so and Gibson will be eased in too but also get more as he shows he can handle it. Well, he can handle it. Sophomore signal caller Dwayne Haskins said this week that they will “have a hard time” getting Gibson off the field and he is in line to get passing work as well. Gibson won’t be anywhere near a bare minimum price tag of $4,000 ever again. I can guarantee that.

Boston Scott – $4,900 (& Jason Huntley – $4,000)

Miles Sanders is not making the trip to Washington with a lingering hamstring so there is possible value to be had. I love Scott’s passing work late last year when Sanders was out but we have to realize that everyone and their mother’s brother will be pivoting to this play. What has gone largely overlooked is that Corey Clement landed on the injury report late this week as well. If he ends up being inactive, rookie Jason Huntley could be a very sneaky play at the minimum price point. He had a great camp for the Lions and was inexplicably cut last week despite their litany of injuries at the position to sign Adrian Peterson. This is a balls out GPP play and I don’t highly recommend it unless Clement sits.

Marlon Mack – $5,300

Everyone will be playing rookie Jonathan Taylor this week and it’s not that he is a bad play but if I am right he will see less touches than Mack and literally no one will be playing Mack in DFS. This is the high EV situation we are looking for in winning DFS tournaments. Mack is a virtual lock for 17 plus touches as there will be no reason to run the tires off of their franchise rookie running back in game one.

Raheem Mostert – $5,800

Shannahan likes a committee but Mostert is a lock for 16 plus touches Sunday and is the unquestioned RB1 in San Fran. I don’t think many people will be on this play and with Tevin Coleman likely sitting out due to poor air quality and the effect it can have on his Sickle Cell trait, there is one less player in the pool to steal touches.

Wide Receiver

Chris Conley – $4,000

This is a classic “pivot” play over the likely much higher rostered rookie Laviska Shenault. ‘Viska is high on my sleeper list and I love his versatile skill set and bruising play style, and I’m not calling for a poor game per se, but Conley will be the outside WR2 and everyone has forgotten about him. This will likely get him on the field for a higher % of plays.

Jamision Crowder – $5,200

I have heard NONE of the DFS sharks mention Crowder this week and I think he is a play. The price point is minimal which will allow you to pay up in other spots and Crowder went off against the Bills in both games last year getting 20.3 and 24.6 DK points. In Week 1 last year, Crowder received 17 targets! That’s unlikely to repeat, but Crowder has averaged 8 targets per game with Sam Darnold under center.

DeSean Jackson – $4900

DJax is healthy and went for 9/154/2 last year week one against Washington. Easy button.

Kendrick Bourne – $5,000

The ‘Niners wide receiver corps is decimated and Bourne knows this offense. He is likely to be second in targets behind George Kittle and was highly used in the red zone last year which gives him immense upside at this price point. The “Bourne Identity” is someone you want in your line ups.

Tight End

Chris Herndon – $3,300

Yes, Chris Herndon exists (a joke for my Twitter followers) and he is one of the only healthy pass catchers for the Jets this week. Breshad Perriman has had knee swelling and rookie Denzel Mims has two injured hamstrings, which sucks because they only give you two! I expect the Bills to win at home with their running game and defense which will force the Jets to the passing game. Herndon showed a unique and athletic skill set in his rookie year in 2018 before completely disappearing last year due to a 4 game suspension and a litany of injuries. He is healthy now and has been lauded for having a great camp and has some nice touchdown equity this week. Tight ends are a crapshoot so finding one with this much upside at this price point is nice.

Jack Doyle – $3,600

The “narrative” is that new Colts quarterback Philip Rivers likes to target the tight end. Oh wait, sometimes we say narrative when we mean to say fact. The Jaguars have seemingly mailed it in before the season has started and I don’t see any reason for the Colts to need to throw deep downfield Sunday so a short passing game advantages the big target Doyle. This price point is cheap for a decent touchdown equity and likely 6-8 targets.

T.J. Hockenson – $4,200

“Hock” from the tight end factory that is University of Iowa had an up and down rookie campaign that was marred with injury but now is deemed 100% by staff from the ankle injury that ended his season. The touchdown equity is there, the Bears were bottom 10 against TEs last year, and the Lions top WR Kenny Golladay was ruled out Sunday with a hamstring.

Defense

Miami Dolphins – $2,000

OK, hear me out. This play won’t take much to pay for itself and we have all seen “good Cam” and “bad Cam”. I don’t think DFS players will have the balls to make this play but it’s not likely to hurt you and if bad Cam shows up on Sunday you have a GPP winning defense.