Anatomy of a Top-16 Dynasty Running Back
- Jonathan Taylor*
- D’Andre Swift*
- Najee Harris
- Javonte Williams
- Christian McCaffrey*
- Austin Ekeler
- Joe Mixon
- J.K. Dobbins*
- Antonio Gibson*
- Dalvin Cook*
- Saquon Barkley*
- Nick Chubb*
- Derrick Henry*
- Cam Akers
- Travis Etienne
- Alvin Kamara*
* Also made 2021 list
Draft Pedigree
Round Drafted – Number of running backs that meet the threshold
- Round 1 = Four
- Round 2 = Nine
- Round 3 = Two
- Round 4 or Later = One
Were they an early-declare out of college?
- Yes = 11
- No = Five
Guys like Etienne & Najee were NOT early-declares (yet they could have and maybe should have) Chubb waited because of injury. Look for early declares drafted day 1 or 2.
Size & Speed
Weight
- Sub 200 lbs = One (Ekeler, 199 lbs)
- 200-210 lbs = Two
- 210-220 lbs = Six
- 220 lbs or more = Seven
BMI: (30 BMI is 50th percentile for RBs)
- Sub 30 = Two
- 30-31 = Nine
- 31-32 = Three
- 32 or more = Two
Ekeler & McCaffrey are the two outliers. Ekeler is the only outlier in terms of draft capital as well.
Speed 💨 aka 40 Time: (4.59 is 50th%)
- Sub 4.40 = Four
- 4.40-4.50 = Seven
- 4.50-4.60 = Four
- 4.60+ = One
Javonte is the only outlier, and he was never evaluated at the NFL combine. I’m using an adjusted pro-day number.
Speed Score (96 is 50th%)
- (50th percentile) Sub 97 = One
- (50-90th percentile) 97-106 = Six
- (90-97th percentile) 107-116 = Six
- (+97th percentile) 117+ = Three
12 out of 16 of these guys are over the 75th percentile in speed score. Big, fast guys tend to be what you’re looking for.
Acceleration
Burst Score (courtesy Player Profiler); 119 is 50th percentile; 125 is 80th percentile
- Sub 117 = One
- 117-120 = Two
- 120-125 = Six
- 125+ = Five
Dalvin Cook is the outlier. He famously flopped at the combine and had everybody worried. Probably just had a bad day, to be honest.
College Production
Receptions – Best Season Total:
- 20 or fewer = Two
- 20-25 = Zero
- 25-30 = Three
- 30-35 = Three
- 35+ = Eight
Big fast guys who ALSO catch passes.
Henry and Chubb are the outliers, and other than these two, every other guy on the list surpassed 42 total college career receptions. 11 of 16 had 65 or more.
Early College Dominance – Best season Total Yards (Freshman or Sophomore years)
- Sub 1000 = Two (Kamara had 989)
- 1000-1500 = Four
- 1500 or more = Nine
CMC and JT had 2200+ Greatness often shows itself early.
College Career Yards Per Carry
- Sub 6.0 = Two
- 6-7 = 12
- 7.0 or more = Two
5.5 YPC is 50th percentile. Only Cam Akers, behind that legendarily awful offensive line, was below that.
Summary
- Day 1 or 2 draft capital
- Early Declare
- 30+ BMI & 210+ lbs
- 4.55 or better 40-time – 100+ speed-score
- 25+ receptions in a single season
- 120+ Burst Score
- YPC over 6.0
- 1000 yard season in Fr or Soph season and 30+ career TDs
That’s it! For additional context and data, click here for the 2021 version of this study.
For up-to-date dynasty rankings, check out The Undroppables Dynasty Rankings.
