Just when you think Josh Jacobs has silenced the haters after his third consecutive RB1 finish to the 2021 season, another offseason of turnover in the Raiders organization brings us back around on the carousel that is the Josh Jacobs wheel of fade. This offseason, the hate drove his ADP all the way down to RB20 (48th overall) according to Fantasy Pros, and into the low 80s in Best Ball leagues on Underdog Fantasy. Leaving fantasy managers wondering if it’s time to jump off the ride or will they be treated to another RB1 season.
The Curious Case of Josh Jacobs
Two years ago ahead of the 2020 season I wrote, “The Curious Case of Josh Jacobs”. That article examined Jacobs’ 2019 rookie year and his potential to match what his ADP had risen to, RB9 in PPR leagues heading into 2020. And while The Undroppables were in on the hype train, as we had him ranked as our consensus RB8 that year, his path to mid-range RB1 status in PPR leagues was murky from the beginning.
In the original article I examined why his path to RB1 status was not an easy one. Mainly because of Jacobs’ relative lack of usage in the passing game. And less obviously, due to his inability to easily earn 385 touches. That (previous) magic number that (we thought) guaranteed a RB will reach top 12 status in PPR leagues c/o @BpoFSU. We’ve learned since then that only 8 players have hit 385 touches the past 5 years, so we need to examine that threshold for touches a little closer, which we’ll do a little later in this article.
2020 Josh Jacobs
Despite all the naysayers, the projections, the analytics models, and frankly all the haters, Josh Jacobs finished as the RB8 in PPR leagues by the end of 2020. He not only delivered on his early round ADP but he did it in style as he was selected to his first Pro Bowl. He topped 1,000 yards on the ground once again and saw an increase in the passing game with 45 targets, 33 receptions for 238 yards.
#Raiders Week 1 Moments: @iAM_JoshJacobs scores 3 TDs to open the season! (2020 – WK 1 @ CAR) #RaiderNation @RaiderClassics pic.twitter.com/wuP3YDSw3e
— NYCRaider88 (@NYC_Raider88) September 8, 2022
However, as Corbin Young wrote in his RB Efficiency article in 2021, Jacobs was one of the least efficient RBs in 2020 with a 4.3 yards per touch average (#53 out of all RBs). His finish was bolstered by a top 12 juke rate, number 11 in opportunities, third most in carries, and fourth most touchdowns. And despite the lack of target share, Jacobs was 24th overall in targets. Not the worst in the league.
And once again, fantasy twitter spent the 2021 offseason debating and tearing down his 2020 performance. Many tweet threads and podcast segments were dedicated to the many reasons why Jacobs’ RB8 finish was a fluke. Whether it was the lack of efficiency (-13.6 Production Premium according to Player Profiler) or the addition of Kenyan Drake and his “he must be a starter” sized contract (2 years for $11M), Jacobs was the most disrespected RB1 heading into 2021.
That offseason hate this time drove his ADP down to RB19 by the time draft season rolled around in late August 2021. As a Josh Jacobs truther even I was realistic from the beginning of 2020 that the data pointed to Jacobs being a solid RB2 with RB1 upside, depending on targets. So I can understand why the fantasy community cooled on him. Especially the analytics crowd, but not as much as they did.
2021 Josh Jacobs
Well once again, for those who faded the noise and took advantage of Jacobs’ discounted draft value, they were rewarded with an overall RB12 finish in 2021 in PPR leagues. His third consecutive RB1 finish.
Josh Jacobs’ 54 receptions were the 5th most of any running back in 2021.
He’s entering a scheme that allowed James White to finish as PPR RB7 in 2018.
— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) February 22, 2022
However, his path to a RB1 finish this time was not as smooth or enjoyable to watch on a weekly basis. Jacobs struggled early as an ankle sprain kept him out of two games after Week 1. It wasn’t until Week 11 that Josh even topped 100 total yards, thanks to 25 yards through the air. He was also running behind an offensive line that was very much contributing to his struggles as Player Profiler ranked them dead last in Run Block Rating.
This all contributed to another inefficient year with an overall yards per touch of 4.5, good for 37th in the league. But Jacobs was doing everything he could to make the most of those opportunities and why YPC and YPT may not be the best indicators of how good a RB really is. Because on the flip side, Jacobs was 7th overall in evaded tackles (76) and 9th overall in yards created (767), and he even increased his Production Premium to +3.2.
However, the best thing about his 2021 performance was the significant increase in target share, even with a pass catching RB like Kenyan Drake on the team. In the passing game, Jacobs finished 11th in the league in target share (12.4%), 12th in routes run (253), and 4th in catch rate (84.4%). I had been pounding the (twitter) table that Jacobs is a good pass catcher and we finally got to see it on display. Besides having to deal with an inefficient Gruden-led offensive scheme, the rapport with Carr as a capable pass catcher just wasn’t there yet his first two seasons. Like many QB-RB duos in the league, targets are built on trust and Jacobs had to earn it.
Jacobs’ 2021 was once again lead by volume and opportunities, but he finally had the target share to back up his RB1 status. And given he missed two games and had a slow return to full speed, his production and efficiency in 2021 could have been even better with a full workload. But one thing is for sure, he showed great returns on his low ADP investment. Exactly what you want from a fantasy player and exactly what you can expect from Josh Jacobs.
RB1 Touches Threshold
I wanted to revisit this threshold of 385 touches that was discussed in the original article. Originally our data pointed to 385 touches as being the magic number needed to guarantee RB1 status. The thought was RB12s and higher since 1992 scored on average at least 221.2 fantasy points. At the same time, no RB has ever received less than 385 touches and not scored at least 221.2 points. While there was some correlation in the data we analyzed to support that claim, and thus why it was included in the original article, it’s not a sticky stat that one could plant his flag on. As stated earlier, the biggest reason is that only 8 players have hit over 385 touches in the last 5 years. As the game has changed so must the analysis.
Our Director of Sports Betting Brian O’Connell originally conducted the analysis and knows that analytics has progressed beyond what we examined two years ago. What we know now is that overall season touches are very predictive of fantasy points per game. When we chart RB touches vs PPR Fantasy Points over the past five seasons, we can see a strong correlation (R squared = 0.746) between touches and fantasy points. And when we chart Josh Jacobs on the graph we can see he’s right on the trend line for the last three seasons. Jacobs gets exactly the amount of fantasy points we would expect based on his number of touches.
Oh, and those two dots massively above the graph? That’s Christian McCaffrey. His hyper efficiency and heavy passing game usage makes him break the chart.
Touches charted over fantasy points. R2=0.746
McDaniels-Belichick Historic ‘Workhorse’ RB Usage
Everyone buys into the narrative that Bill Belichick (and by extension Josh McDaniels) will always take a committee approach to the backfield. Yet whenever they’ve had a RB that can handle a full workload they’ve given it to him. Let’s take a look at the RBs in the Bill Belichick-Josh McDaniels era who carried a full workload that season. Note that most of these players were gone within 1-2 seasons after their breakout year in New England, another possible similarity to Jacobs.
Corey Dillon. At the age of 30 in 2004, Dillon rushed 345 times for 1,635 yards and 12 TDs. with 4.7 YPC and 109 YPG. The BEST single-season RB performance in Patriots history. He finished as the RB7 in fantasy in a year loaded at the RB position with guys like LaDainian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, and Shaun Alexander, to name a few. Dillon started his career in Cincinnati where he was a perennial 1,000+ yard rusher until his final year in Ohio in 2003. Dillon resurged in 2004 with the Patriots who knew they could lean on their signed veteran RB. His final two seasons in New England he shared the backfield with Kevin Faulk and then Lawrence Maroney, posting 700+ and 800+ yard rushing seasons, respectively.
Stevan Ridley. In his 2nd season in 2012, Josh McDaniels gave the Third Round back out of LSU the lion’s share of the carries with 290 rushing attempts for 1,263 yards and 12 TDs. The best finish of his career and the 7th most rushing yards on the season. Since Danny Woodhead was also on the team, Ridley missed out on targets but got the rushes and TDs, finishing as the RB15 in PPR leagues. A significant accomplishment given Ridley was primarily a rushing back and guys like Adrian Peterson were topping 2K yards on the ground. Still, we saw that volume was the key to Ridley’s success that year and McDaniels was willing to give him that volume.
Most RUSH TD during 1 season in New England #Patriots history:
1. 2016 LeGarrette Blount (18)
2. 2021 Damien Harris (15)
T3. 1995 & 1996 Curtis Martin (14)
T5. 2006 Corey Dillon & 2010 BenJarvus Green-Ellis (13) pic.twitter.com/cCYqUGpYPl— Best of Pro Sports (@pro_sports_best) June 30, 2022
LeGarrette Blount. In 2016, McDaniels revitalized another aging RB (30) in Blount, feeding him 299 attempts for 1,161 yards and 18 TDs! He played a career-high 47% of the offensive snaps, and was ultra-efficient at the goal line scoring 12 of his TDs inside 5 yards. Blount finished the season as the RB8 in PPR, once again despite the lack of targets. Dion Lewis was on the team this time to take away passing targets from Blount. While Blount barely surpassed the 1K threshold during his rookie season with Tampa Bay, it took 6 more seasons before he could solidly do it again with the Patriots, only to never do it again.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis. In 2010, the “Law Firm” became the last RB in the Belichick era on this list to eclipse 1,000 yards with 229 rushing attempts and 13 TDs. BJGE moved the chains that year with 65 1st downs as a volume back that finished as RB17 in PPR leagues, again despite targets. Also, Josh McDaniels was doing his first head coaching stint in Denver at the time so he wasn’t calling the offense. But Belichick continued the trend with feeding the rock to the capable RB who could carry the load. And unlike the other three RBs discussed here, BJGE continued to be productive after his big Patriots year and topped 1K yards rushing with Cincinnati two seasons later.
Conclusion
Josh Jacobs has shown to be exactly what you (should) expect him to be. A volume-based, solid RB2 with RB1 upside, dependent on target share. He may not be the most efficient back but he’s the lead dawg in Las Vegas and will continue to get the opportunities. As we see in Josh Mcdaniels’ historic RB usage, when he has a capable RB1 he will give him the volume. And that’s exactly what Jacobs is. A competent NFL RB who can carry the workload, move the chains, make people miss, and can catch passes. He may not be the sexiest fantasy football player but like Kirk Cousins, he’s been very steady overall the past three years.
This perception that Kenyan Drake is such a better receiver than Josh Jacobs is false. Drake has the same career catch rate as Jacobs (73.5%), a very similar yards per reception (7.4 to Jacobs’ 7.6), and similar targets and receptions their first 2 seasons https://t.co/4mvdL3CDrn
— Tommy Mo (@2on1FFB) August 22, 2021
2022 Josh Jacobs
So what should expect this year out of Josh Jacobs? Is it another RB1 season, or will this finally be the year that Jacobs haters get to say they were right all along?
Scheme
Well first, the new scheme should help as New England was top 10 in rushing attempts the past four seasons. Yes, McDaniels will use the RBs more as pass catchers but the increase in targets the past three years shows a nice trend that should continue as Carr is now more comfortable checking down to Jacobs. Also, last year the Raiders were the 2nd in targets to the RB position with 145. With a new scheme we can’t expect the same level of targets but the trend is once again there pointing to increased RB usage in the passing game. By contrast, the Patriots were 15th in RB targets, most of those going to Brandon Bolden who is now #2 on the Raiders depth chart.
Personnel
Jacobs is no longer competing for touches from good pass catchers like Jalen Richard or big contract guys like Kenyan Drake. The depth chart has Brandon Bolden #2, a former Patriot and bigger back that has never topped 275 yards rushing in any season. But as mentioned earlier he is capable of catching the ball out of the backfield. Followed by Ameer Abdullah, a competent receiving back who has been bouncing around the league the past four years. And newly drafted rookie from Georgia Zamir White who has talent but a long path to fantasy relevancy. With no clear replacement next year, Jacobs is primed once again to get the workload needed to reach RB1 status.
Offensive Line
The offensive line will continue to be an issue this year as our own Brad Wire has them ranked 28th overall, and 24th in run blocking. The Raiders also just dropped their First Round pick from last year in RT Alex Leatherwood. Cutting him may end up being better for the team, but having last minute turnover by getting rid of your starting RT isn’t good for continuity. We may once again see another inefficient year with many evaded tackles and missed tackles forced in order to create some production behind a bad line.
Projections
Personally, I’m expecting a similar fringe RB1 finish for Josh Jacobs this year supported by volume and an increased target share. After all, he’s a solid RB2 with RB1 upside. But I can’t write an article just on gut feelings so I pulled up The Undroppables CEO’s projections for the Raiders this year. Chalk has Josh Jacobs projected with a RB19 finish based on 920 rushing yards, 9 TDs, 51 targets with 39 receptions for 254 yards, and 1 receiving TD. A solid finish for Jacobs considering his ADP. He would once again finish exactly as expected, or slightly above. I think Chalk is giving too much production to White and underestimating Jacobs’ target share. But that’s why we do projections and look at historical data. It’s all a guessing game until the pads start to crack on the field.
One thing is for sure, with a low ADP and drafting Jacobs as your RB2/Flex RB3 in redraft leagues will leave you with a capable RB who will return on his investment. At best you have a fringe RB1 for a discount, and at worst you’re no longer spending early round draft capital even if he busts. I know personally, I have Jacobs as my RB2 on at least 1/2 my dynasty teams and I’m ready for another RB1 finish.
Closing Remarks
The trends for success are there for Jacobs even if the fantasy community at large is no longer riding the train. But for those that have faith, the rewards could be plenty. In fantasy football, no one has a crystal ball to predict the future. We are reading the tea leaves and all signs point to a productive year barring injury. And lastly, I’ll leave you with this tweet from Richard the Gnome comparing Jacobs to everyone’s favorite new RB Javonte Williams. Jacobs and Williams are in two different places in their careers, but why is one highly touted and the other faded?
2021:
Javonte Williams vs Josh JacobsRush Yards:
903 vs 872Rush TDs:
4 vs 9Broken Tackles:
44 vs 41Rec Yards:
316 vs 348Rec TDs:
3 vs 0Receptions:
43 vs 54Rec Percentage:
81% vs 84%Why are we hyping one but fading the other?
— Richard the Gnome (@gingerbe3rdman) August 25, 2022
