The NFL Combine is over, Pro Days are starting to wind down, and you promised your significant other that you would take them out to a nice date night since you hit on some nice plays on PrizePicks – thanks to some plays from UN Bets. Enjoying the evening as you get that alert on your phone from Sleeper and look instinctively, not realizing that this alert will soon engulf your whole evening’s thoughts and focus.
It’s a trade offer! Knowing this league, it’s probably some soon-to-be-cut player and a 2024 4th-round pick for my Travis Etienne. But you’ll need to see the offer. You open the alert to find that someone wants to send you Tony Pollard?! Were you even looking for a running back? Does this put you over the top? You look up and exclaim in a flutter, “I need to use the restroom!” as you get up before hearing acknowledgment opening three different calculators and articles tabs to ensure there was no other injury news. You have to take your time looking at the ultimate dynasty trade asset.
Tony Pollard – 2022 Review
Tony Pollard had a career year in 2022, with highs in rushes (193), rushing yards (1,007), rushing touchdowns (9), targets (55), receiving yards (371), and receiving touchdowns (3). Ezekial Elliott being limited with injuries helped increase his usage, but I do not want to take away from how fantasy Tony looked on the field. Unfortunately, all of this was capped by a broken leg in the San Francisco playoff game that has been stated will not affect his 2023 outlook.
Batman is my all-time favorite comic book hero. That goes to say I love all the villains that he battles in and out of Gotham City. So when considering how to evaluate Tony, I considered Harvey Dent, better known as Two-Face. A man living his life with his decisions with a coin flip emulates my exact sentiment on how I feel Tony Pollard is right now as a dynasty asset – a coin flip. You can talk me in either direction, and I would be happy to take it.
Heads – The Good
New Offensive Coordinator
Brian Schottenheimer has replaced Kellen Moore in Dallas, and the only benefactor in that offense will be Tony Pollard. Schottenheimer has generally favored the workhorse RB and produced some top running offenses during his stints as offensive coordinators with Seattle Seahawks, then St. Louis Rams, and New York Jets. Lead to him having top fantasy finishes for running backs for players like Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene, Stephen Jackson, and Chris Carson; most recently, Tony Pollard is in line to join these players with a chance to have 250+ rushes and 50+ targets on the season, finally.
Limited Touches
People will state that Tony is getting up in age as a knock against him. There is some truth to the age cliff for running backs, but historical context should be considered. Much of the data shows that these running backs had years of high volume usage early in their careers, and their attempts lead to a better predictor when their “cliff” hits rather than their age. Due to these reasons, Pollard should have a few more years of high production.
Elite Running Back
Tony is an elite talent in the NFL right now. PFF graded him as the 4th best RB in the NFL with a 90.2 overall grade. Watching games last year will tell you he deserved to be a workhorse in that offense, but Ezekiel Elliott’s contract forced Dallas to play him causing the split between them.
A breakout season for Tony Pollard
Hoping for a speedy recovery 🙏 pic.twitter.com/33UxViTSXN
— PFF (@PFF) January 24, 2023
Contract Year
I am a big believer in the contract year for players; it is one of the biggest motivators for players to perform. Unfortunately, the franchise tag was used on Tony this year, and even though that money is guaranteed, his future with any team is not, and he will want to prove he is worth another deal. I like to factor this in when evaluating players looking for some upside on their yearly output when doing rankings, which you can find here at The Undroppables.
Tails – The Bad
RBs are not Assets in Dynasty
The RB position is something other than what you need to trade for in most cases. Youth will always be king, and the only time you should be trading for a running back in a dynasty is if you are indeed all in on a championship run. One of the long-term strategies in a dynasty is to trade away running backs on rebuilding teams first. I am not calling this necessarily “bad,” but this depends on how your team is positioned in your league. For example, suppose you are in a league with long-time dynasty managers. In that case, it will be tough to move Tony in a league with managers knowing that acquiring him comes with a higher risk with lower ROI, where they would instead use the pick on the younger running back in the upcoming draft.
Market Price is Too High
You may hate or love them, but trade calculators are one of the most popular tools in fantasy football. Looking at his KeepTradeCut value, Tony has propelled and then plateaued as a low-end RB1 since he took over the Dallas Cowboys backfield. The slight injury dip might have been the cause of the value change. There are several other calculators, rankings, and trade values you can use (a significant part of the problem if you ask me) that will show you where Tony ranks, and you will have one that you may prefer but understand that most will have him up high now.
Fear of Competition
Do you see that tiny dip at the end of the screenshot of KTC above? That is the fear of everyone thinking of who Dallas will draft in the upcoming NFL Draft. Bijan Robinson has been linked to the Dallas Cowboys as a popular landing spot, with them letting Ezekiel Elliott walk and them wanting to run the ball more. Plus, franchise tagging Pollard means they could split carries between Bijan and Tony, not hurt themselves financially, and then let Pollard ny walk next year. There are a lot of what-ifs in fantasy football, and this is a definite risk in buying before the NFL Draft. If the Cowboys don’t draft an RB that threatens Pollards carries, imagine how that chart will look in August…
Recent Injury
Tony Pollard – Don’t let injury scare you away.
Avg RB return = 4-6 months. He’ll be 8 by Week 1.#NFL data shows RB numbers don’t dip much even in year 1 post-injury.
Add in:
(1) Zeke’s release
(2) Pollard in a contract yearAnd all signs are pointing up, right?#Cowboys
— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) March 23, 2023
There is plenty to fear with injuries, especially with the position and as players get older. I am not one of them, but most people love to point out that an injured player must either come with a discount or be scared away completely. Keep this in mind when negotiating with people, but there is always a concern with players coming back from injury.
Personal Conclusion
After looking at each side of the coin, you might wonder where I stand. I am all in on Tony Pollard, and here are some trades I have done personally to acquire him where I did not have him already.
