Anatomy of a Top-18 Dynasty Wide Receiver
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Justin Jefferson
- AJ Brown
- Cooper Kupp
- Deebo Samuel
- Jaylen Waddle
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tyreek Hill
- Tee Higgins
- DK Metcalf
- Davante Adams
- Diontae Johnson
- DJ Moore
- Stefon Diggs
- Chris Godwin
- Elijah Moore
- Terry McLaurin
- Devonta Smith
These players will form the basis of our data set.
Size
Height
6’2” bigger = 4
6’0” or 6’1” = 9
5’10” or 5’11” = 3
5’9” smaller = 2
Weight
210 lbs.+ = 6
200-210 lbs. = 5
190-200 lbs. = 2
180-190 lbs. = 3
180 lbs. or less = 2
This is a major shift in the Anatomy of a top end dynasty tight end Previously, we wanted big tall WRs (prototypical alpha builds). Now dynamic players like Diontae Johnson, Jaylen Waddle, and Elijah Moore are changing the size profile. The two top WRs in dynasty fantasy football (Chase and Jefferson) are in the 6-foot range. Keep an eye on this.
Draft Capital
Round 1 = 6
Round 2 = 6
Round 3 = 4
Round 4 or later = 2
Only Stefon Diggs (injured) and Tyreek Hill (outlier) were taken after pick 85 of the NFL Draft. If your WR prospect isn’t getting drafted within the first 2 days, then the chances of stardom start to drop significantly.
Early Declare
Yes = 14
No = 4
Another clear distinction is based on whether the wide receiver is an underclassman or early declare. The survey says you should target early declares.
Breakout Age
18 years old or younger = 3
19 years old = 7
20 years old = 5
21 years old or older = 3
Tyreek is an outlier so we can scratch him. Waddle and McLaurin also missed the mark. For Waddle, he was competing with Devonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy, and Henry Ruggs while also sustaining an injury. McLaurin will always be the notable analytics miss. With that said, look for early college production!
Dominator Rating
40% or better = 6
29% – 40% = 8
29% or worse = 4
Look for guys who were able to dominate their college team’s production.
Best College Season (Frosh/Soph)
Yards
1,000+ = 7
800-1,000 = 5
600-800 = 4
600 or less = 2
Touchdowns
10+ = 7
5-10 = 9
Less than 5 = 2
We almost always see 600+ yards and 5+ TDs by sophomore season from these top flight receivers.
Yards per Team Pass Attempt
2.75 or more = 9
2.25 – 2.75 = 4
1.75 – 2.25 = 2
1.75 or less = 3
McLaurin, Tyreek, and DK (injury) are the outliers. Waddle and Deebo also fall short. The threshold for Yards per Team Pass Attempt is 2.50+ if the player plays a full season.
Market Share Touchdowns
40% + = 6
30%-40% = 8
30% less = 4
40-Time
4.40 or faster = 5
4.40-4.50 = 8
4.50-4.60 = 4
4.60 or slower = 1
Cooper Kupp’s 4.62 is the only one over 4.60. Speed Score is not important as size-adjusted speed only really matters for RBs and TEs.
Summary
- Top 100 NFL pick
- Early Declare
- 6’0″ / 205 lbs.
- 20 yr old BOA or younger
- 30%+ Dominator Rating in best college season
- Posted at least one season with 600+ receiving yards by sophomore year
- Posted at least one season with at least 5 TDs by sophomore year
- 2.50+ Y/teamPA in best college season
- 30%+ TD share in best college season
- Sub-4.60 40-time
