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Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Running Backs

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December 23, 2019

Final Exam is a statistical deep-dive into a select group of prospects from each rookie class. With an analytics-driven approach, an objective breakdown is provided so readers can properly adjust their perspectives from a dynasty lens.

Note: These statistics are current as of December 23, 2019 (before Week 17 games).

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Quarterbacks

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Wide Receivers

The 2019 running back class doesn’t hold a candle to the incoming class but there were four RBs that each had a legitimate case to be NFL starters:

Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills

Each of them had their own question marks along with the potential for NFL success and the debates raged on during the offseason. So how did they fare after year 1? Let’s look at objective statistics and consider their future dynasty outlooks.

Rushing

Josh Jacobs led the pack, starting from Week 1 and never looked back. Running behind a top 3 offensive line per Football Outsiders, the Alabama product churned out 1,150 yards on the ground (4.8 ypc). ?

David Montgomery came in 2nd with 776 yards (3.5 ypc) behind the 31st ranked offensive line.

Devin Singletary was 3rd among these running backs with 775 yards (5.1 ypc) with the 12th ranked offensive line.

Miles Sanders ran for 766 yards (4.5 ypc) behind the 14th ranked offensive line.

Jacobs was the most prolific on the ground, but Singletary was the most efficient as he made the most out of his limited usage.

Receiving

Sanders caught 47 passes for 510 receiving yards. ?

Singletary posted 29 receptions for 194 receiving yards.

The Bears rookie RB was touted as being a strong pass-catcher but Tarik Cohen’s presence limited Montgomery to 25 catches for 185 receiving yards.

Jacobs did not see much work in the passing game for Oakland for 20 receptions for 166 receiving yards.

The Eagles back was in a class of his own when it came to receiving work, more than doubling any other rookie RB’s receiving production.

Total Scrimmage Yards

Jacobs put up an astonishing 1,316 yards on 262 touches, even though he missed 2 games. This was good for 5 yards per touch. ?

Sanders posted 1,276 total scrimmage yards on 217 touches, an average of 5.6 yards per touch. ?

“Motor” Singletary produced 969 yards on only 180 touches (5.4 yards per touch), as he started off with the least opportunity share to start the season.

Montgomery only mustered up 961 yards from scrimmage on 244 total touches for a disappointing 3.9 yards per touch.

Aside from Montgomery, each of the 2019 rookie running backs were able to produce respectable efficiency metrics when their numbers were called.

Touchdowns

Jacobs scored 7 times on the ground, but did not catch any passes in the end zone. ?

Sanders had 4 rush TDs and 2 receiving TDs for a total of 6.

Montgomery had 5 rushing TDs and caught a pass for a score.

With 2 rushing and 2 receiving TDs, Singletary totaled 4 scores in 2019.

Fumbles

Jacobs had only 1 fumble despite touching the rock 262 times. ✊

Sanders and Montgomery both had 2 fumbles but Monty touched the ball 27 more times.

Singletary may have only lost the ball once, but fumbled 4 times on only 151 carries. Sanders had the fumbling question marks during the rookie evaluation process, but Singletary was the one with ball security issues in year 1.

Missed Games/Injuries

Sanders and Montgomery both remained relatively healthy all season and did not miss any games. ⚕️

Singletary missed three games due to a hamstring injury early in the season (Weeks 3-5).

Jacobs missed two games due to a shoulder injury, including Championship Week 16.

Draft Capital

Josh Jacobs has the highest draft capital as he was a first round pick by the Oakland Raiders (24th overall) with the determination to make him the lead dog from day 1. ?

Miles Sanders was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles with the 53rd overall pick in the second round.

The Chicago Bears selected David Montgomery in the third round with the 73rd overall pick.

Devin Singletary went one pick after Montgomery to the Buffalo Bills with the 74th overall pick.

Fantasy Points Scored (PPR)

Miles Sanders finishes as the top rookie RB with 210.6 points (14 ppg), good for RB13 in PPR formats. ?

Jacobs ranks as the RB19 with 191.6 points (14.7 ppg).

Montgomery finishes as RB24 with 153.1 points (10.2 ppg).

Singletary posted 142.1 points (12.9 ppg) to finish as the RB28.

Grades

* This is only a one-year sample size, but we can extract some information from what we’ve seen and make adjustments this offseason.

Josh Jacobs– Strong performer with potential upside for elite production if he can get the passing work. The main concern around the (likely) Offensive Rookie of the Year remains his durability and ability to play a full 16 games. The Raiders also have several question marks, including at the QB position and a lack of receiving weapons. The Oakland offensive line was a top-ranked unit in 2019 but Richie Incognito, the 15th ranked offensive lineman by PFF, hits free agency. And even though Incognito is known for his pass blocking prowess, he was a critical part of the Raiders’ success at the line of scrimmage. Jalen Richard, who took most of the third-down work, also hits unrestricted free agency this offseason. If Richard departs, then Jacobs may be asked to step up in pass protection and take a true workhorse role in 2020. If everything falls into place, Jacobs has top 5 RB potential is well within his range of outcomes.

Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?

Miles Sanders – League-winning upside was unlocked in his rookie year, vaulting him up dynasty rankings and cementing him as this year’s value pick when it comes to rookie RBs. He has continued to improve in pass protection and running between the tackles on an offense that was mediocre at best. The Eagles lacked receivers which likely helped Sanders see more targets, but regardless his playmaking ability was on full display this season. On the downside, the Eagles rookie had trouble running between the tackles early in the season, often missing wide-open gaps and missing opportunities for chunk gains. Sanders’ ability to hold onto the ball has been questioned and he ended up fumbling twice this season. But as the season wore on and his opportunities increased, Sanders stepped up and made plays week in and week out and he did not fumble after his midseason mishaps. Although it remains to be seen, Sanders has earned his right to be the incumbent 3-down workhorse for the Eagles heading into 2020. With draft capital, creative usage and an improved offense working in his favor, Sanders will be a high-end RB2 heading into next season with the top 10 RB upside.

Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ✅✅
Final Grade – ?

David Montgomery – Lack of speed, burst, and overall game-breaking ability was considered (especially by the analytics community) to be an indictment to his chances at NFL success and 2019 only supported these notions. Monty had only one game over 100 scrimmage yards. The Bears look like they have no idea what they’re doing in the front office or from the sidelines when it comes to offense. Chicago has so much invested in the average-at-best Mitchell Trubisky that bailing on him might not be an option even if Cam Newton becomes available this offseason. Then there the questions with the 31st ranked offensive line and Matt Nagy’s questionable playcalling. Montgomery is a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 in 2020 and will likely be stuck in the top 30 conversation for the foreseeable future with Tarik Cohen, and even Anthony Miller, limiting pass-catching upside. In fact, I do not like his long-term outlook given that by the time Chicago figures things out, Montgomery will have wasted 3-5 years in a bad situation only to face a regime change and rebuild. If you can sell Montgomery for a late 2020 1st, you pull the trigger immediately.

Talent ❔
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ?

Devin Singletary – A non-stop “motor” and ability to keep his legs churning to grind through tackles looks to be the perfect complement to the Bills’ Josh Allen. Although Singletary was stuck in neutral behind the ageless Frank Gore, it looks as though the Florida Atlantic alum will be in the driver’s seat heading into next season. The Bills are making the playoffs for the 2nd time in three years and the future is starting to brighten up for the Bills Mafia. With the team trending up and the Patriots looking more mortal than ever, the Bills will likely look to add to their offensive line and receiving personnel which will take pressure off the front and giving Singletary more room to charge downhill. Singletary is a low-end RB2 with promise, but his lack of receiving work currently caps his ceiling.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ❔
Final Grade – ?

Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 16)

Michael Reedy

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December 19, 2019

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Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 16)

If you are playing in a fantasy football championship… Congratulations, I hope there is money involved. It’s been a long, grueling season and as important as this week is, we will look at who I think will help you win the ‘ship and who may cause you to go into the off-season brokenhearted. So here we go…

Quarterbacks

? Money Makers

Ryan Fitzpatrick – The Bengals are the 9th worst team against the QB position. And although Cincinnati has defended against Quarterbacks fairly well over the last 4 weeks (opposing teams have averaged less than 200 passing yards and scored 3 total pass TDs against the Bengals in that span), but the Bengals also didn’t play a gunslinger like ‘Fitzmagic’ in any of those games. Fitz threw the ball 41 times last week against the Giants and now welcomes back his surprising breakout WR, Devante Parker. The journeyman QB led the Dolphins in rushing yards with 8 carries for 65 yards last week, which is indicative of a solid floor. Expect a big game from Fitzpatrick if you are streaming your way to the championship.

Philip Rivers – Over the past month, the Raiders have been scorched by opposing QBs as Oakland has allowed nearly 24 points per game to the position. Darnold and Tannehill both went for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns each when they faced off against the Raiders. Rivers is coming off another volume-heavy game where he threw the ball 39 times in Week 15. Add in the heated rivalry between the two franchises and it’s very feasible to predict a wild west shootout. In terms of streaming options, Rivers is a good one this week.

Ryan Tannehill – The Titans signal-caller has been playing at a high-level since taking over as the starter. In fact, since week 7, Tannehill has only one game in which he has not thrown for multiple touchdowns. One. Tennessee is matched up against the Saints who are coming off a prime time dismantling of the Indianapolis Colts as they completely shut down Brissett and the passing game. But New Orleans has also given up 300+ passing yards in three out of the last four games while allowing teams to score multiple passing touchdowns. Tannehill is simply getting it done and is on 34% of teams playing in championships on ESPN

Other quarterbacks I like in Week 16: Minshew, Dalton and Haskins

? Heart Breakers

Jimmy Garoppolo – Jimmy G has put up a meager 200 passing yards or less with a single touchdown in two out of the past three weeks (15 completion for 165 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens in Week 13 and 22 completions for 200 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta in Week 15). The 49ers are still a strong team out in the West but they are predicated on tough defense and running the ball with their multitude of backs. Now San Francisco faces a hot Rams team whose defense has only allowed one quarterback to score over 18 points over the last 10 weeks. Garoppolo has been volatile as of late and this week is no different.

Jared Goff – The counterpart to Jimmy G this week (Goff) is coming off of three weeks of wonderful play and that may make you think he is startable in fantasy championships. This is one of those trap plays if you ask me. In their last meeting, Goff completed 13 passes for 78 yards and didn’t score. In fact, he scored 1.12 points in standard formats that week. Prior to his three weeks of great play were three weeks of horrendous play where he did not top 10 fantasy points against the likes of the Ravens, Steelers and Bears. The 49ers are in this class of defenses so expect Goof to struggle early and often even with Richard Sherman banged up.

Running Backs

? Money Makers

Saquon Barkley – Barkley has been a bust for his standards as he is currently RB17 in PPR. Last week Barkley put up 112 yards and 2 TDs and this week he plays the Redskins who are the 7th worst team against the run. Washington has also been torched in recent weeks by Aaron Jones and Miles Sanders so the path to a big day is there. Daniel Jones is expected to be back under center for the Giants, but the rookie will be fresh off a high ankle sprain so New York will likely lean on the run. You want to fire Barkley up if you own him, he is also a nice play in DFS.

Marlon Mack – Mack is healthy and he’s playing against the worst run defense in the league. Mack is coming off a major letdown game against the Saints but he will get volume this week as the Panthers will be trotting out rookie Will Grier for the first time. The game script should be in Indy’s favor and Carolina gives up an average of 123 rushing yards and 1.6 rush TDs per game. Mack is a phenomenal flex play if you have been looking to plug him.

Other running backs set to make some money this week are Drake, Mixon and Lindsay

? Heart Breakers

Devin Singletary – Singletary is going up against the best run defense in the league in this matchup against the Patriots. Last week, Singletary had 21 carries for 87 yards for a mediocre outing against the Steelers. New England gives up and an average of 81 yards per game so if you look at the tea leaves, Singletary is lining up for a 80 yard day with the possibility of a couple of catches making a low-end RB3/flex play.

Derrick Henry – Henry is recovered from his hamstring injury and played last week against Houston rushing for 86 yards on 21 carries. But the Saints are the 5th best team against the run giving up only 65 yards per game and they just shut down the aforementioned Mack. This is a week where you can fully expect Tannehill to air it out to keep pace with Brees and the high octane Saints offense. Henry isn’t a bad RB2 play but you will need to temper expectations and hope for a score.

Wide Receivers

? Money Makers

Courtland Sutton – Last week I had him has a Breaker and this week against the Lions I have him as a Maker. Sutton tends to get peppered with targets no matter who is under center for the Broncos. Sutton has seen 7 or more targets in all but one game this season and saw 10 last week. The Lions happen to be the 3rd worst defense at defending against the pass, giving up an average of 13 receptions and 131 yards per game to the wide receiver position. Sutton is looking like a fantastic play in Week 16.

Terry McLaurin – F1 finds himself in the same exact spot I had Amendola last week. You questioned then and you may question now. But please hear me out on this one. McLaurin has scored in two consecutive weeks, seemingly finding his OSU groove with Haskins. In Week 15, McLaurin had 5 receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles. Like Philadelphia, the Giants are not so good against wide receivers, as they watched Davante Parker run past them for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns last week.

Other wide receivers that will shake their money makers for week 15 – Lockett, Metcalf, Miller, and Conley

? Heart Breakers

Julian Edelman – Edelman has been reeling as of late with a total of 6 catches for 35 yards over the past 2 weeks while receiving TDs are being siphoned by Harry and White. The Bills secondary led by Tre’davious White rank in the top four against wide receivers and they typically only give up about 14 points to the slot, which happens to be where Edelman plays. The Patriots will need to look elsewhere to move the ball against the Bills, likely grinding it down with the run and short screens to Michel and White.

Cooper Kupp – For a player who started off so hot, Kupp was been an utter disappointment for lack of a better word. The Rams are continuing to play a different brand of football than before and Kupp has suffered as a result. The Niners are the second best defense against wide receivers and Kupp could only muster 4 receptions for 17 yards in the Week 4 against San Francisco.

Tight Ends

? Money Makers

Jacob Hollister – Hollister hasn’t scored since Week 10 and his target share was off last week. But he is still in an every-down role and a favorite red zone target of Russ. With the Cardinals on tap, Hollister has the opportunity to get back on track just in time for the Seahawks playoff run. Giving up 6 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown on average per week to tight ends is just what the doctor ordered to make you some money.

Hunter Henry – Henry is coming off a lackluster performance last week which included a fumble. Week 16 presents a nice bounce-back spot for Henry as the Raiders are the third worst defense against the tight end position. Looking at how much production Oakland has given up to TEs in the recent weeks, including scores to the position almost every week, Henry sports a nice floor with a strong possibility of scoring.

? Heart Breakers

Jack Doyle – The Colts TE not been catching the ball the last two weeks (2 catches each week) even with Eric Ebron going to IR and Carolina is the third best defense against tight ends. The game script will likely favor the Colts who will look to pound the rock through Mack (see above). Doyle projects as a low-end TE1 this week but a shaky floor and limited ceiling.

Other Tight Ends that will break you heart and kill your championship dreams: Njoku, Gesicki, and Jonnu Smith

Going Whole HOG

Randal Kennedy

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December 18, 2019

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Per Player Profiler, HOG Rate captures the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis by calculating the number of targets per snap. This metric helps to identify wide receivers and tight ends with limited route trees that may have a low snap count and target share, but when on the field are a focal point of the passing offense.

? 2019 Wide Receiver HOG Leaders

? 2019 Tight End HOG Leaders

Market Watch | December 2019

Chalk

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December 18, 2019

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Market Watch is where we dive into the ever-changing values of players in dynasty formats. Whether it’s an opportunity to buy low, sell high or even buy high, sharks never sleep.

? Bullish: These are players who are trending up, causing optimism for future prospects and performance.

Tyler Boyd – Boyd’s up and down and generally disappointing season couldn’t end quick enough. While the Bengals mired in futility, Joe Mixon started to re-flash his elite potential but Boyd remained inconsistent at best. The critics question whether Boyd can handle a lead role in a passing game as Green missing the entire season provided ample and unfulfilled opportunity to prove naysayers wrong. With all that being said, it seems like Zac Taylor may be figuring things out and Cincinnati will have a top pick in next year’s draft. If the Bengals end up with Joe Burrow and the LSU product lives up to his Heisman hype, Boyd will be a steal for those who decide to acquire him at a discount this winter. Boyd is only 25 and has already broken out early in his career. Although he lacks the game-breaking athleticism, he best compares to Adam Thielen, as a smooth slot receiver. Boyd also boasted one of the top HOG rates (15.9%) for wide receivers in 2019 along with the 20th ranked snap share at the position, which signifies that he is a focal point of the offense.

Sentiment: Buy Low

Christian Kirk – Kirk is another young WR, who has the potential to be a superstar in this league but disappointed compared to lofty expectations in 2019. The question marks are being to surface as Kirk has failed to score in all but one game this season (where he went bananas for 3 scores and got Vernon Hargreaves released the next day). On the bright side, Kirk ranked in the top 30 for wide receivers in HOG Rate and will continue to be peppered with targets in 2020 and beyond. In recent (too-early) mock drafts, some draft experts are projecting the Cardinals to continue to add to their receiving corps with touted incoming rookies like Lamb going to the desert. On the other hand, Kirk is consistently seeing an average of 8.5 targets a game from the ever-improving Kyler Murray. Even if the Cardinals take a WR in the upcoming draft, it will likely be a big-bodied true X to play outside and open things up for Kirk in the slot. Add in the fact that Larry Fitzgerald will likely retire after this year. There will be plenty of targets to go around and Kirk will be a beneficiary. Sell the narrative that Arizona is going WR early in the draft and then pick up shares of Captain Kirk.

Sentiment: Buy Low

? Bearish: These are players who are either trending down or show cause for concern regarding their future prospects and performance. We’re looking to sell these players.

Julio Jones – The age-old dilemma of selling a year too early or holding a year too late. There is usually no right answer, but I’m always looking to shed roster weight and having veterans rot away on your team will handicap your team’s future. A.J. Green is a prime example of a player who should have been sold during last offseason as a hard sell. Now Green owners who kept him are stuck with him at the ends of their benches with absolute zero trade value but enough value to keep him on your team. Julio hasn’t been as hobbled as Green so Jones will still be very productive for at least the next couple of seasons but if you can move him for a younger WR and some draft capital or additional depth, it’s a wise move. Julio just had a massive game and ended another TD drought so the distraction is there. I am bearish on the Falcons offense as a whole (although Calvin Ridley is a bright spot) so I’m looking to unload as many of them as possible. Move Jones now (but without discount).

Sentiment: Sell High

Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 15)

Michael Reedy

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December 13, 2019

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Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 15)

This is my version of the all too well-known Start/Sit column. I started with a thread on Twitter based on the questions I answer regularly regarding who to play. So I took a stab at a weekly column instead. I will tell you if you came here for me to tell you to play Lamar Jackson or Christian McCaffrey, I will openly admit I am hoping I don’t need to tell you to do that.

So here we go…

Quarterbacks

? Money Makers

Jimmy Garoppolo – Playing against the Atlanta Falcons who give up the fourth-most points to the quarterback position. Kyle Allen and Jameis Winston have both recently torched this defense. San Francisco is starting to boast a more potent receiving corps with Kittle, Sanders, Samuel and the emerging Kendrick Bourne. Put all that together with Jimmy G coming off of a 349 yard 4 TD game and I think you can see that the 49ers’ passing offense is going to produce in Week 15.

Ryan Tannehill – Houston has the third-worst defense against the QB position in fantasy this season. Tannehill has been producing as a top 3 fantasy QB since taking over for the Titans. Factor in that Derrick Henry is dinged up and BOOM you have the production you can count on to move to the next round of the fantasy football playoffs. I expect another top 5 fantasy finish for Tanny in Week 15.

Baker Mayfield – He is up, he is down, he is also playing against the friendliest of defenses for a QB in football. The Cardinals love allowing quarterbacks and tight ends to feast on them. This is also a bounce-back game where you should expect Mayfield to have a lot of passes to Landry and Hunt moving the chains in the hot Arizona sun. Baker is a top 10 fantasy QB this week.

? Heart Breakers

Matt Ryan – Matty is all ice against the 49ers D this week. He looked good last week against Carolina but they are not the Niners and he will be out of the top 12 as a QB this week on the road. Calvin Ridley was just placed on IR, ending his season and limiting Ryan’s upside. Ridley was producing at a WR2 clip and even though Austin Hooper has returned from his own stint on Injured Reserve, the Falcons offense lacks the consistency and weapons to avoid fading in this matchup.

Mitchell Trubisky – Has been on fire as of late. The Packers though are a very good defense against the quarterback position. He will be hitting Miller in the slot, as that is the only place he should be able to attack. For the Bears to win this game they will get away from the pass and move with the run.

Running Backs

? Money Makers

Chris Carson – Has been very good for almost the entire season and this will probably be my obvious recommendation on this week’s list. But I had to. Penny is out and the matchup is too good. You are playing him in the fantasy playoffs without a question. Carolina is the worst defense against the run for fantasy purposes. Aside from season-long formats, if you were looking for a RB to play in DFS, this is the week you should build your line up around this guy. Carson will come up big in Week 15.

Josh Jacobs – If he sits (then start Deandre Washington). Maybe I should have titled this section “Raiders Running Back”. Anyways, the Raiders are playing the Jaguars. The Jags are the third-worst defense against the running back position and have been SCORCHED, I mean thoroughly torched latterly by the likes of Jonathan Williams (116 yards rushing, 31 receiving), Mack (109, 1 TD) in Week 11; Derrick Henry (159 and 2 TDs) in Week 12; Peyton Barber (44 and 2 TDs) in Week 13 and the combination of Ekeler and Gordon for 156 yards and 1 TD rushing and 141 yards and 1 TD receiving last week. Play whichever Raiders back is starting.

Patrick Laird – He is the only healthy running back and his team is ‘meh’ at best, allowing Laird to make his mark in Week 15 as a pass-catcher. He is seeing 5 targets a week over the past two weeks, the Dolphins are lacking depth at receiver right now, and you can do damage as an RB against the Giants D from the running back position as a receiver. In Week 12, the Bears running backs combined for 9 receptions, in Week 13 Packers back combined for 8 receptions and week 14 Eagles backs combined for 10 receptions. We are looking at a high floor especially in PPR for Laird. Solid flex play

Other running backs I really like this week are Saquon Barkley, Kenyan Drake, and James White.

? Heart Breakers

Alvin Kamara – If you have him you are playing him but expectations have to be low at this point. He is getting vulture for TDs by a backup quarterback and the matchup against the colts isn’t that great. The Colts are the 5th best against the run. Top that off with the passing game and Murray taking carries and you see where I am going. You are playing him but yuck.

Aaron Jones – Another guy you are playing but need to temper expectations with Jamaal Williams siphoning touches. Jones had 39 yards on 13 carries last week against the Bears and Williams isn’t going anywhere barring injury. At this point, you are playing Jones with the expectation of more than 30 yards but he doesn’t have a high ceiling and only a modest floor.

Wide Receivers

? Money Makers

A.J. Brown – The targets have not always there with Tannehill at the helm but Brown’s production has been climbing over the last few weeks. Brown has also emerged as the #1 option in the Tennesee passing attack that has lacked true threats outside of Henry. With the Houston defense just being shredded by rookie Drew Lock and showing little sign of being able to stop passing attacks, Brown is a nice high floor play with Henry banged up and the Titans likely looking to target its other playmaker.

Danny Amendola – I know, you just choked a little. Did this guy really say Amendola? You are already playing Golladay if you own him. The Tampa Bay defense is the most giving to all wide receivers in the NFL. It is the season if giving and they will continue to give o both Golladay and Amendola. Marvin Jones is out and Amendola had 8 targets last week. He is a very nice play this week if you need a WR.

Jarvis Landry – If you have him, you should already be playing him anyways. But the Cardinals are so friendly to the passing game, I felt the need to call out that Landry and Mayfield are both excellent plays this week. Landry had a floor week against the Bengals last week with 7 targets for 4 receptions and 76 yards. Look for him to bring that up to a ceiling game with a few more receptions, 100 yards and a TD.

Other wide receivers I like for Week 15 – Kupp, Golladay, Slayton, and Keenan Allen.

? Heart Breakers

Courtland Sutton – The Chiefs are actually good against wide receivers, they are the second-best defense against wide receivers in the league. He will still get his target share of roughly 7 for the game. But expect a result more in line with what he did against the Bills with a total of 27 yards.

Chrisitan Kirk – Kirk is a little dinged up, the Cleveland is not bad against the wide receiver position. I expect a floor game from him this week with a bunch of targets and something like 50 yards. He isn’t going to kill you this week, but he isn’t going to light the world on fire as well

Tight Ends

? Money Makers

Dallas Goedert – How many wide receivers will suit up for the Eagles. Last week they were ready to put a backup QB in at the position if needed. This means Ertz and Goedert will be heavily used in the passing game against the Redskins. The volume will be there.

Tyler Higbee – I mentioned above the slot is the place to attack the Cowboys. Kupp will be good and so will Higbee. Dallas is the 10th most friendly defense to the tight end position and he going to see a healthy volume of targets, let’s say 10. Good production will come in Week 15 for Higbee.

Mike Gesicki – If you are TE needy you might want to roll him out there. Miami is another team that is hurting at the receiver position and Fitzy will throw him the ball. The targets are going to be there against the Giants.

Other tight ends I like this week – Waller, Ertz, Njoku (if he plays), and obviously Kittle and Kelce.

? Heart Breakers

Austin Hooper – Hoop is back from injury but faces another bad matchup. As mentioned above, Ridley is out for the season but the Falcons tight end saw 6 targets last week and did nothing with them. The matchup isn’t friendly and the Falcons have been trending down as a whole. I’d avoid if there’s better options but with the shallow pool of relevant TEs, you’re likely firing Hooper up as a low end TE1.