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Market Watch | December 2019

December 18, 2019

Market Watch is where we dive into the ever-changing values of players in dynasty formats. Whether it’s an opportunity to buy low, sell high or even buy high, sharks never sleep.

? Bullish: These are players who are trending up, causing optimism for future prospects and performance.

Tyler Boyd – Boyd’s up and down and generally disappointing season couldn’t end quick enough. While the Bengals mired in futility, Joe Mixon started to re-flash his elite potential but Boyd remained inconsistent at best. The critics question whether Boyd can handle a lead role in a passing game as Green missing the entire season provided ample and unfulfilled opportunity to prove naysayers wrong. With all that being said, it seems like Zac Taylor may be figuring things out and Cincinnati will have a top pick in next year’s draft. If the Bengals end up with Joe Burrow and the LSU product lives up to his Heisman hype, Boyd will be a steal for those who decide to acquire him at a discount this winter. Boyd is only 25 and has already broken out early in his career. Although he lacks the game-breaking athleticism, he best compares to Adam Thielen, as a smooth slot receiver. Boyd also boasted one of the top HOG rates (15.9%) for wide receivers in 2019 along with the 20th ranked snap share at the position, which signifies that he is a focal point of the offense.

Sentiment: Buy Low

Christian Kirk – Kirk is another young WR, who has the potential to be a superstar in this league but disappointed compared to lofty expectations in 2019. The question marks are being to surface as Kirk has failed to score in all but one game this season (where he went bananas for 3 scores and got Vernon Hargreaves released the next day). On the bright side, Kirk ranked in the top 30 for wide receivers in HOG Rate and will continue to be peppered with targets in 2020 and beyond. In recent (too-early) mock drafts, some draft experts are projecting the Cardinals to continue to add to their receiving corps with touted incoming rookies like Lamb going to the desert. On the other hand, Kirk is consistently seeing an average of 8.5 targets a game from the ever-improving Kyler Murray. Even if the Cardinals take a WR in the upcoming draft, it will likely be a big-bodied true X to play outside and open things up for Kirk in the slot. Add in the fact that Larry Fitzgerald will likely retire after this year. There will be plenty of targets to go around and Kirk will be a beneficiary. Sell the narrative that Arizona is going WR early in the draft and then pick up shares of Captain Kirk.

Sentiment: Buy Low

? Bearish: These are players who are either trending down or show cause for concern regarding their future prospects and performance. We’re looking to sell these players.

Julio Jones – The age-old dilemma of selling a year too early or holding a year too late. There is usually no right answer, but I’m always looking to shed roster weight and having veterans rot away on your team will handicap your team’s future. A.J. Green is a prime example of a player who should have been sold during last offseason as a hard sell. Now Green owners who kept him are stuck with him at the ends of their benches with absolute zero trade value but enough value to keep him on your team. Julio hasn’t been as hobbled as Green so Jones will still be very productive for at least the next couple of seasons but if you can move him for a younger WR and some draft capital or additional depth, it’s a wise move. Julio just had a massive game and ended another TD drought so the distraction is there. I am bearish on the Falcons offense as a whole (although Calvin Ridley is a bright spot) so I’m looking to unload as many of them as possible. Move Jones now (but without discount).

Sentiment: Sell High

Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 15)

Michael Reedy

December 13, 2019

Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 15)

This is my version of the all too well-known Start/Sit column. I started with a thread on Twitter based on the questions I answer regularly regarding who to play. So I took a stab at a weekly column instead. I will tell you if you came here for me to tell you to play Lamar Jackson or Christian McCaffrey, I will openly admit I am hoping I don’t need to tell you to do that.

So here we go…

Quarterbacks

? Money Makers

Jimmy Garoppolo – Playing against the Atlanta Falcons who give up the fourth-most points to the quarterback position. Kyle Allen and Jameis Winston have both recently torched this defense. San Francisco is starting to boast a more potent receiving corps with Kittle, Sanders, Samuel and the emerging Kendrick Bourne. Put all that together with Jimmy G coming off of a 349 yard 4 TD game and I think you can see that the 49ers’ passing offense is going to produce in Week 15.

Ryan Tannehill – Houston has the third-worst defense against the QB position in fantasy this season. Tannehill has been producing as a top 3 fantasy QB since taking over for the Titans. Factor in that Derrick Henry is dinged up and BOOM you have the production you can count on to move to the next round of the fantasy football playoffs. I expect another top 5 fantasy finish for Tanny in Week 15.

Baker Mayfield – He is up, he is down, he is also playing against the friendliest of defenses for a QB in football. The Cardinals love allowing quarterbacks and tight ends to feast on them. This is also a bounce-back game where you should expect Mayfield to have a lot of passes to Landry and Hunt moving the chains in the hot Arizona sun. Baker is a top 10 fantasy QB this week.

? Heart Breakers

Matt Ryan – Matty is all ice against the 49ers D this week. He looked good last week against Carolina but they are not the Niners and he will be out of the top 12 as a QB this week on the road. Calvin Ridley was just placed on IR, ending his season and limiting Ryan’s upside. Ridley was producing at a WR2 clip and even though Austin Hooper has returned from his own stint on Injured Reserve, the Falcons offense lacks the consistency and weapons to avoid fading in this matchup.

Mitchell Trubisky – Has been on fire as of late. The Packers though are a very good defense against the quarterback position. He will be hitting Miller in the slot, as that is the only place he should be able to attack. For the Bears to win this game they will get away from the pass and move with the run.

Running Backs

? Money Makers

Chris Carson – Has been very good for almost the entire season and this will probably be my obvious recommendation on this week’s list. But I had to. Penny is out and the matchup is too good. You are playing him in the fantasy playoffs without a question. Carolina is the worst defense against the run for fantasy purposes. Aside from season-long formats, if you were looking for a RB to play in DFS, this is the week you should build your line up around this guy. Carson will come up big in Week 15.

Josh Jacobs – If he sits (then start Deandre Washington). Maybe I should have titled this section “Raiders Running Back”. Anyways, the Raiders are playing the Jaguars. The Jags are the third-worst defense against the running back position and have been SCORCHED, I mean thoroughly torched latterly by the likes of Jonathan Williams (116 yards rushing, 31 receiving), Mack (109, 1 TD) in Week 11; Derrick Henry (159 and 2 TDs) in Week 12; Peyton Barber (44 and 2 TDs) in Week 13 and the combination of Ekeler and Gordon for 156 yards and 1 TD rushing and 141 yards and 1 TD receiving last week. Play whichever Raiders back is starting.

Patrick Laird – He is the only healthy running back and his team is ‘meh’ at best, allowing Laird to make his mark in Week 15 as a pass-catcher. He is seeing 5 targets a week over the past two weeks, the Dolphins are lacking depth at receiver right now, and you can do damage as an RB against the Giants D from the running back position as a receiver. In Week 12, the Bears running backs combined for 9 receptions, in Week 13 Packers back combined for 8 receptions and week 14 Eagles backs combined for 10 receptions. We are looking at a high floor especially in PPR for Laird. Solid flex play

Other running backs I really like this week are Saquon Barkley, Kenyan Drake, and James White.

? Heart Breakers

Alvin Kamara – If you have him you are playing him but expectations have to be low at this point. He is getting vulture for TDs by a backup quarterback and the matchup against the colts isn’t that great. The Colts are the 5th best against the run. Top that off with the passing game and Murray taking carries and you see where I am going. You are playing him but yuck.

Aaron Jones – Another guy you are playing but need to temper expectations with Jamaal Williams siphoning touches. Jones had 39 yards on 13 carries last week against the Bears and Williams isn’t going anywhere barring injury. At this point, you are playing Jones with the expectation of more than 30 yards but he doesn’t have a high ceiling and only a modest floor.

Wide Receivers

? Money Makers

A.J. Brown – The targets have not always there with Tannehill at the helm but Brown’s production has been climbing over the last few weeks. Brown has also emerged as the #1 option in the Tennesee passing attack that has lacked true threats outside of Henry. With the Houston defense just being shredded by rookie Drew Lock and showing little sign of being able to stop passing attacks, Brown is a nice high floor play with Henry banged up and the Titans likely looking to target its other playmaker.

Danny Amendola – I know, you just choked a little. Did this guy really say Amendola? You are already playing Golladay if you own him. The Tampa Bay defense is the most giving to all wide receivers in the NFL. It is the season if giving and they will continue to give o both Golladay and Amendola. Marvin Jones is out and Amendola had 8 targets last week. He is a very nice play this week if you need a WR.

Jarvis Landry – If you have him, you should already be playing him anyways. But the Cardinals are so friendly to the passing game, I felt the need to call out that Landry and Mayfield are both excellent plays this week. Landry had a floor week against the Bengals last week with 7 targets for 4 receptions and 76 yards. Look for him to bring that up to a ceiling game with a few more receptions, 100 yards and a TD.

Other wide receivers I like for Week 15 – Kupp, Golladay, Slayton, and Keenan Allen.

? Heart Breakers

Courtland Sutton – The Chiefs are actually good against wide receivers, they are the second-best defense against wide receivers in the league. He will still get his target share of roughly 7 for the game. But expect a result more in line with what he did against the Bills with a total of 27 yards.

Chrisitan Kirk – Kirk is a little dinged up, the Cleveland is not bad against the wide receiver position. I expect a floor game from him this week with a bunch of targets and something like 50 yards. He isn’t going to kill you this week, but he isn’t going to light the world on fire as well

Tight Ends

? Money Makers

Dallas Goedert – How many wide receivers will suit up for the Eagles. Last week they were ready to put a backup QB in at the position if needed. This means Ertz and Goedert will be heavily used in the passing game against the Redskins. The volume will be there.

Tyler Higbee – I mentioned above the slot is the place to attack the Cowboys. Kupp will be good and so will Higbee. Dallas is the 10th most friendly defense to the tight end position and he going to see a healthy volume of targets, let’s say 10. Good production will come in Week 15 for Higbee.

Mike Gesicki – If you are TE needy you might want to roll him out there. Miami is another team that is hurting at the receiver position and Fitzy will throw him the ball. The targets are going to be there against the Giants.

Other tight ends I like this week – Waller, Ertz, Njoku (if he plays), and obviously Kittle and Kelce.

? Heart Breakers

Austin Hooper – Hoop is back from injury but faces another bad matchup. As mentioned above, Ridley is out for the season but the Falcons tight end saw 6 targets last week and did nothing with them. The matchup isn’t friendly and the Falcons have been trending down as a whole. I’d avoid if there’s better options but with the shallow pool of relevant TEs, you’re likely firing Hooper up as a low end TE1.