The UNveiled: AP Devy Strategy – Draft Success

Welcome back, class. In our last meeting, we discussed some players to move off of and the paths to do so. I laid out ten players to trade away and explained we would look to move off of some productive players who may not make the Dynasty transition fruitful. This week, we’re getting ready for DRAFT SZN! Whether you’re in a startup and creating your team from scratch or established leagues and supplementing your roster with incoming freshmen and unowned potential prospects, let’s walk through the process to set you up for future success.

Disclaimer: This draft guide is NOT for NCAA-only leagues. We focus on players transitioning to Dynasty in your C2C leagues.

Startup Strategy

  1. Asset Hoarding

As in NFL Dynasty leagues, we are thinking of our Devy assets regarding current and future market value. Some players out there focus on winning the Devy “points battle”, but I would gladly tank the Campus side if it means accruing trade and production assets on the NFL side.

2. Positional Targeting

Success in Dynasty for a player will vary by position and how they were recruited. We can easily group and assign value to players based on their position groups, recruiting rankings, and NFL hit rates. Let’s break them down:

QB – At the QB position, 5-Star recruits will hit in the NFL about 25% of the time. That falls to about 10% for the 4-Star recruits and an abysmal 1.2% for 3-Star.

RB – 5-Star RBs hit about 44%, 4-Star at 13.2%, and the 3-Star at 2.3%.

WR – The hit rates for 5, 4, and 3-Star WR recruits are about 43, 10, and 1.6%, respectively.

So, what does all of that mean? Quarterbacks retain dynasty draft capital value even if they haven’t been successful in the NFL yet, so while there are fewer players at the position that will do you much good, they will keep their value. Draft QBs with the idea of acquiring tradeable assets to strengthen your team. Those 5-Star kids will go early. Once those QBs are gone, we take all the 4 and 5-Star RBs and WRs we can handle. When those three pools are dry, it’s back to 4-Star QB, if any are left. If you missed out, don’t sweat it.

At the back end of drafts, we’re looking for players like the ones on our TARGETS list (no, NOT Trey Holley anymore). This is also where we are going to draft TE. Rank your TE targets however you would like. I start with my first group, “Guys at Iowa,” and arrange from there. Look for guys at the position in the top 4 on their Power 5 team in targets as a sophomore.

3. Trading Draft Picks

There is absolutely nothing wrong with trading back in startups. After Round 10 or so, if you can make 2-for-1 or better trades, go for it. You can load up on Freshmen from established schools to take advantage of recruiting history, like the aforementioned Iowa tight ends, Ohio State wide receivers, or Alabama running backs. I like QBs from Iowa State for some reason, and LSU, USC, and Texas will usually funnel prospects into the NFL.

4. Always Prepare

Just like in all NFL leagues, draft prep is super important. Stack your players in tiers. Place players in tiers based on what we mentioned before, position group, recruiting grade, and school, but also use market share, breakout age, and depth chart position. Have your draft sheet and stay flexible. I believe the great Mike Tyson said, “Everyone has a plan until they get sniped in a draft and panic.” If you’re prepared, you won’t panic.

Established Leagues

Hopefully, you remember all of the things I just said. If you don’t, go back and read it all again. The draft process in established leagues is exactly the same as in startups, only with a smaller player pool. In established leagues, the focus does shift in three main areas:

  • Depth Chart Position
  • Market Share
  • Recruiting Rank

See? It’s the same, but it’s different. We want to capitalize on name recognition and recency bias. For example, you’re on the clock, and you have a need at running back. As a movable asset, the RB that has a name everybody knows, that just rushed for 600 yards as a sophomore, on a Power 5 team that is losing their starter to the NFL, BUT was only a 3-star recruit has more trade value than an incoming Freshman who is a 4-star recruit. That Frosh may be the next Saquon Barkley in three years, but the Junior 3-star you draft who ascends to the NFL can get you that prospect plus a future draft pick in a post-season trade before that Frosh has started a game in college. We’re talking assets here, people!

So, that is your basic strategy. Go forth, make your Cheat Sheets, and load up on those assets. Next time, we’ll refine some of our targeting by looking at how offensive scheme affects Devy value.

Processing The Process: Final Senior Bowl Thoughts

Phase One of The Industrial Draft Complex (aka “The Process”) is complete. The Senior Bowl wrapped up a week ago; we have been exposed to all of the “stock up, stock down,” “winners and losers,” and “risers and fallers” pieces we can handle. I imagine I’m in the 99th percentile of consumers of such content. I’ve scoured the internet for said articles, followed local beat writers, listened to all the podcasts from any attendee I could find, and tweeted my way through it all. 

To this point, I’ve tried to remain player-agnostic and take in the information. We’ve got a few months until rookie drafts, so there’s no need to pick a hill to die on. However, I’m looking into the real estate on some of those hills and checking out the views.

If you read my first article, Looking Back to Look Ahead | Senior Bowl WRs & RBs, you know:

  • “Most of these players won’t be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, nor your rookie draft.” – Maybe one QB or WR sneaks in, but I doubt it. Early declares still reign supreme, and for fantasy purposes, these are guys we’re getting in the 2nd round of rookie drafts and beyond.
  • “These players have something to prove,” – Some answered. Some left us with more questions. We’ll go through those.
  • To “Make a note of the players who leave early.” – There is a signal there. Their agent likely told them there was nothing more to gain by staying. 

With that in mind, it’s time for me to opine. 

I’ve bunched every skill position player into one of four categories. There’s a right price for each player depending on format, league size, roster size, etc, and keep in mind that we want to remain Bayesian throughout the rest of “The Process.” Thus, depending on their cost, my mind can be changed, but here’s where I am after two weeks of absorption (first the lists, then more context).

I’m Interested

Regardless of their combine, draft capital, or landing spot, I will likely draft these players at cost.

  1. Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan
  2. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
  3. Marshawn Lloyd, RB, USC
  4. Javon Baker, WR, UCF
  5. Theo Johnson, TE, Penn State
  6. Brendan Rice, WR, USC

Show Me The Combine

These players look like they have traits we like, but I need to know more. The testing data points will help us move players into Group 1, Group 3, or possibly Group 4.

  1. Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida
  2. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina 
  3. Luke McCaffrey, WR, Rice
  4. Daijun Edwards, RB, Georgia
  5. Michael Wiley, RB, Arizona
  6. Emani Bailey, RB, TCU
  7. Isaiah Davis, RB, San Diego State
  8. Ben Sinnot, TE, Kansas State

Show Me the Situation 

“Situation” means draft capital and landing spot. I may be willing to take the plunge if I see a scenario where they can flourish.

  1. Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy
  2. Devontez “Tez” Walker WR, UNC
  3. Jha’Quan Jackson, WR, Tulane
  4. Ryan Flournoy, WR, Southeast Missouri State
  5. Jamari Thrash, WR, Louisville
  6. Malachi Corley, WR, Western Kentucky
  7. Michael Penix, QB, Washington
  8. Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina
  9. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
  10. Michael Pratt, QB, Tulane
  11. Rasheen Ali, RB, Marshall
  12. Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State
  13. Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, WR, Georgia

I’m Out 

These players don’t profile like dynasty assets in which I would invest meaningful draft capital. Let someone else burn draft capital and roster space on them. 

  1. Ray Davis, RB, Kentuky
  2. Cody Schrader, RB, Missouri
  3. Dylan Laube, RB, University of New Hampshire
  4. Ainias Smith, WR, Texas A&M
  5. Jacob Cowing, WR, Arizona
  6. Jaheim Bell, TE, Florida State
  7. Jared Wiley, TE, Texas Christian University
  8. Brevyn Spann-Ford, TE, Minnesota
  9. AJ Barner, TE, Michigan
  10. Joe Milton III, QB, Tennessee 
  11. Carter Bradley, QB, University of South Alabama
  12. Sam Hartman, QB, Notre Dame

Diving Deeper

Note: Zebra Technologies Inc. (2024 Reese’s Senior Bowl Performance Tracker) provided the GPS data on the players.

I’m Interested:

Roman WilsonMICHWRAge22MPH20.07
Height5104
Weight186Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.24
Hand9 1/8
Arm30 2/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-4.37
Wingspan72 2/8

 

He left after Day 2 (“make note of players who leave early!”) because he won the Senior Bowl. I had to create a tweet-count-cutoff in my hype tracker because of him. There are lots of comparisons to Tank Dell a la 2023. Lots of comparisons to Tyler Lockett. He easily gets open, makes contested catches, and is fast and smooth. Perhaps his low yardage totals were due to the offense he was in, not his ability. Of the Senior Bowl WRs in 2023, he had the 2nd highest dominator rating. Get higher on Roman Wilson!

Notable quotes:

“he showed off his ability to run away from coverage and make contested catches with strong hands throughout practice on Tuesday. Wilson’s talent for creating mismatches and opening throwing windows for his quarterback reminds me of what I saw from Tank Dell.” – Lance Zierlein (Link here)

“the former Wolverines star worked himself open repeatedly. Wilson showed nuance in his game, using leverage and quick footwork to create space before making catches.” – Matt Verderame (Link here)

“From this perspective, Michigan wide receiver Roman Wilson was the best player on the field for either session.” – Evan Lazar (Link here)

“Wilson has legitimate 4.3 speed, and he glides effortlessly through zones, throttling up and down to take advantage of leverage mismatches.” – Ian Cummings (Link here) 

Ladd McConkeyUGAWRAge22MPH19.49
Height5114
Weight187Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.58
Hand8 5/8
Arm30 1/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.56
Wingspan72 6/8

 

I declared Roman Wilson the winner, but Ladd will likely get drafted ahead of him. Of the Senior Bowl WRs, he led in yards per route run and catch percentage in 2023. From what I can tell – he had a big Day 1, a quieter Day 2, and a big Day 3; he was getting open in the game (I was watching like a hawk) but wasn’t getting targeted much. He allegedly put on a show during punt return drills, too. Watching his routes on 1-on-1 drills (which he absolutely crushed), I couldn’t help but think he’s one of the twitchiest WRs I’ve ever seen. There were multiple observers referring to him as “having a plan as a route runner.” I’m interested in seeing how fast he is at the combine, but “pro-ready” was thrown around quite a bit.

Notable Quotes:

“In 1-on-1 drills, no defender was close to stopping him… He has a plan on every route.” – Marcus Mosher (Link here) 

“The Bulldogs star is a thoughtful route-runner who attacks defenses with a well-defined route plan.” – Lance Zierlien (Link here) 

“McConkey put on an absolute show during one-on-ones with his highly advanced route-running and quickness. However, it’s worth noting he didn’t have the same success in team drills.” – Evan Lazar (Link here) 

“McConkey is not only a turbocharged athlete with elite stop-and-start, but he knows how to weaponize that speed and athleticism with efficient footwork, spatial awareness, deceptive tactics, and micro-movements — and he can make high-difficulty catches as well.” – Ian Cummings (Link here) 

Marshawn LloydUSCRBAge21MPH19.59
Height5091
Weight217Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.4
Hand8 6/8
Arm30 7/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.21
Wingspan72 5/8

 

Stay calm; Stay calm; Stay calm. (whispers: I think we have a sleeper). This guy did the Roman Wilson thing but for RBs. He opted out of playing the game (Day 2 draft capital is likely secured). For a senior, he’s not too old, he has the requisite size, he showed good receiving ability, burst, wiggle, and power. His 40-time will be the next biggest hint (and might catapult his value), but for the love of 2nd round steals, don’t tell anyone about Marshawn Lloyd! Forget I said anything.  

Javon BakerUCFWRAgeMPH20.99
Height6013
Weight208Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.49
Hand9 5/8
Arm31 5/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-6.18
Wingspan78

 

It seemed like he was high on many lists coming in, so I was paying close attention. With 3.21 yards per route run (2nd in 2023 among this group) and a 17.1 aDOT (also 2nd), it’s easy to see why. On the 2/8/24 episode of The Undrafted (Listen here), Jax’s guest, Thor Nystrom, pointed out that people didn’t realize he was winning at all three field levels. He isn’t just a deep threat, as his aDOT seems to indicate (he did clock the 2nd fastest MPH among WRs for good measure, though). Other attendees noted that on Day 2, he was getting targeted often in team drills (he certainly filled up my Day 2 Tweet bank). He looks silky, fast, and has good releases, and his college numbers back it up. This is a strong prospect we can get at a good price. Let’s not overthink it.  

Theo JohnsonPSUTEAge23MPH18.68
Height6060
Weight257Max Acceleration (YD/S²)3.87
Hand10
Arm32 4/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.21
Wingspan81 2/8

 

There are two very clear tier breaks in TE before we get anywhere near Theo’s tier. Athleticism is important for TE prospects, so the combine will matter, but Theo looks like a full-grown NFL TE already and seems to have put himself near the top of that 3rd tier. Don’t go crazy; he should be affordable on draft day, but of the TE prospect not named Bowers or Sanders, he seems like a good bet. 

Notable Quotes:

“Johnson was routinely using his easy acceleration, speed, and bend to carve through zones and separate at the intermediate level, and he also used his hands to finish at the catch point consistently.” – Ian Cummings (Link here) 

Brenden RiceUSCWRAge22MPH20.49
Height6021
Weight212Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.95
Hand9 3/8
Arm32 5/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.82
Wingspan78 3/8

 

It’s probably because he’s Jerry’s son, but Brenden was getting a lot of hype, and it seems earned. He opted out of the game (check), but from practice sessions, there are many videos of him fighting through defensive holding and PI and making the catch anyway (we like that). There were multiple “Mike Evans” comps. He doesn’t look like his old man, but at 6’2, 212, with the highest yards per reception of this bunch (17.6 in 2023), a healthy aDOT, one of the fastest MPH achieved at the Senior Bowl, and the literal G.O.A.T. as his father, I’m not going to be fading Brendan as long as the price is right (and he doesn’t seem expensive at all at the moment).

Notable Quotes:

“Big, physical kid who showed the ability to make sharp cuts despite his 6’2″, 212-pound frame.” Matt Verderame (Link here)

“His 6-foot-2, 217-pound frame came in handy during 1-on-1 drills, as he had to fight through consistent contact to make catches. Despite all that, the wideout had a good day, even fighting through some jersey-tugging to come down with a catch in the end zone.” – Zach Selby (Link here)

“His ability to finish through contact and make plays on the ball with strong hands impressed me. Rice is not a pure separator like dad but a physical outside receiver who can win down the field.” – Evan Lazar (Link here)

Show Me The Combine:  

Ricky PearsallUFWRAge23MPH20.45
Height6007
Weight193Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.45
Hand9 1/8
Arm30 6/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.84
Wingspan73 5/8

 

Ricky did leave early (after Day 2, big check). He sounds like a route-running savant who still made some contested catches, and there was definitely a Tweet storm (after Roman, Ricky was the most Tweeted-about player on Day 1, by my count). His statistical profile doesn’t jump off the page to me, but he left early for a reason. Let’s see his 40. If he’s fast and open, he’ll be targeted at the next level.

Notable Quotes: 

“Pearsall was the best route runner on the field for either team Tuesday, consistently shaking corners with a variety of juke moves on multiple routes.” – Matt Verderame (Link here)

“Pearsall displayed the ability to defeat press coverage, contested catch ability, and his natural route-running prowess at practice on Tuesday.” – Nick Falato (Link here)

“Ricky Pearsall has been every bit of a technician to start practice today. Releases, footwork, stems & breaks, all very fluid & purposeful with little to no wasted movement or ineffectiveness.” – @Pro_Ant (Link here) 

“WR Ricky Pearsall looked outstanding in the 1-on-1’s. Can wake up out of the bed and run routes.” – Jordan Reid (Link here) 

Xavier LegetteSCWRAge23MPH18.8
Height6010
Weight223Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.27
Hand8 7/8
Arm31 5/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-4.91
Wingspan77 2/8

 

Physically, he was sold to us as DK Metcalf, but he measured closer to AJ Brown. That still works! Nearly unanimously, there were reports about a bad Day 1, compounded by the disparity in his reported size. Then, nearly unanimously, attendees said he bounced back strong on Day 2. He caught everything thrown his way and dominated the short and intermediate games. He had a cameo on Day 3 before a minor injury ended his session. I’m worried about the late breakout age (Year 5), and I want to see his 40-time, but among this group in 2023, he was top 3 in yards per route run (3.15), top 3 in Dominator Rating (.35) and the far and away #1 in adjusted yards per team play (3.2). I definitely want to see his 40-time, but I’m enticed. 

Luke McCaffreyRICEWRAge23MPH20.17
Height6016
Weight202Max Acceleration (YD/S²)5.01
Hand9 4/8
Arm29 7/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-6.09
Wingspan74 5/8

 

The pedigree conversation seems unavoidable this year. We already talked about Jerry Rice’s son. This draft will also feature the sons of Marvin Harrison (you might have heard about him), Frank Gore, and, of course, Ed McCaffrey (whose other son just won Offensive Player of the Year). This is not the basis of our analysis, but it’s not nothing! Luke was a QB. When he transferred to Rice, he switched to WR and seems to have picked up the position in record time (probably got some tips from Ed). He had one of the highlight grabs of the game last week (one-handed, left-handed), broke the 20 MPH threshold, and had the highest Dominator Rating of any WR at the Senior Bowl in 2023. Did I mention he’s new at this? I’m tempering expectations here. Let’s see how he performs at the combine, but I trust you won’t forget his name. 

Daijun EdwardsUGARBAge21MPH19.74
Height5093
Weight202Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.48
Hand9
Arm29 4/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-3.79
Wingspan71 3/8

 

We must get him on our Bijan teams just for naming purposes, right? If that’s not enough to convince you, he had a sweet spin move that got him into the 2nd level on Day 1 that everyone Tweeted about. Look, this isn’t a great rookie RB class. We’re looking for guys with good speed scores who can also catch. Daijun caught enough passes at Georgia last year and showed enough as a receiver last week that we think he can do the latter at the next level. He’s elusive, has burst (showed the 2nd best Max Acceleration among RBs at the Senior Bowl), and looks like he packs a punch. He’s also fairly young for a senior. Let’s see what he shows us in Indianapolis.  

Michael WileyARIZRBAge21MPH19.56
Height5103
Weight209Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.23
Hand9 1/8
Arm30 1/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-4.32
Wingspan72 2/8

 

I hate to reduce it to this, but in a lackluster RB class, let’s stick with the basics. He’s young enough. He can catch. We need that speed score. 

Emani BaileyTCURBAge21MPH18.82
Height5073
Weight208Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.43
Hand9 6/8
Arm29 5/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-4.51
Wingspan70 7/8

 

See Michael Wiley, but they also played well and dominated touches in the game.  

Isaiah DavisSDSURBAge21MPH18.7
Height6000
Weight220Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.32
Hand10 2/8
Arm31 1/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-3.99
Wingspan75

 

See Michael Wiley.

Show Me The Situation:

Kimani VidalTROYRBAge23MPH18.78
Height5075
Weight215Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.35
Hand9 3/8
Arm29 7/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-4.69
Wingspan72 4/8

 

There are some great NFL comps for guys who are roughly his size (Ray Rice and MJD come to mind), especially when they can catch, and it appears Vidal can (he had three 20+ catch seasons). He looked better than some of the RBs I just listed in the “Show Me The Combine” section, but at 23, the ageist in me is pushing him down the board. I’ll want to see the combine and the depth chart in front of him for dynasty purposes. 

Devontez WalkerUNCWRAge22MPH21.18
Height6014
Weight197Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.47
Hand9
Arm32 6/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.79
Wingspan70 2/8

 

As the aDOT leader of this group in 2023, I had high hopes for Tez. My notes from the game: “First play – flea flicker to Tez. Loses (probably P.I.). On the third drive, Tez loses on a contested catch down the left sideline. 1:08 left in the 2nd QT – Tez loses another contested catch in the endzone! Second half – Tez beats his man deep, ball underthrown. No catch.” You’ll notice two themes: 1) my note-taking worsened, and 2) the plays were not made.

Here’s the thing: that was a theme of the week. Tez’s athleticism is not questioned, as evidenced by his 21.18 MPH (fastest WR recorded this year). However, he consistently lost contested catch situations in practice and in the game. That’s significant because, of this group, in 2023, he had the highest contested catch rate (24.4%) and the 2nd highest contested target percentage (25.8%). For a guy who’s this athletic, that tells us that he’s probably not a very good route runner yet. There are many plausible excuses, but the thing I don’t like about excuses is that they’re usually the steps we resort to before conceding that a player may not be that good. He’s likely to test well at the combine, so I’m intrigued. But I’m also terrified.

Jha’Quan JacksonTULNWRAge23MPH20.16
Height5090
Weight190Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.87
Hand8 7/8
Arm31 5/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.44
Wingspan77 2/8

 

Compared to other WRs at the Senior Bowl, nothing about his statistical profile stands out to me. I saw nothing overwhelmingly positive or negative about Jha’Quan from the coverage. I don’t have a strong take here, so the NFL combine, and his situation will be big before we land on a valuation. 

Ryan FlournoySEMOWRAge23MPH20.05
Height6011
Weight200Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.41
Hand10
Arm31 2/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.26
Wingspan76 3/8

 

Part of the reason the Senior Bowl exists is for guys like Flournoy. A kid from Southeast Missouri State got a chance to prove he belonged. Not a lot of hype coming in, but the reviews were good. He surprised some folks. Good size, seemingly good speed, and good hands. Showed well in 1-on-1s. Smells like a potential late-round sleeper. 

Malachi CorleyWKUWRAge22MPH20.04
Height5105
Weight215Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.57
Hand9
Arm30 7/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.5
Wingspan75 4/8

 

Another player that people seemed to love coming in. Among the highest Tweet bank WRs, yet very little written commentary. His 5.5 aDOT in 2023 is concerning. He looks like he has the size and speed to be used in various ways, but if he’s not getting targeted deep at Western Kentucky, I will need more information before I take the plunge. 

Jamari ThrashLOUWRAge22MPH20.3
Height5116
Weight185Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.54
Hand8 6/8
Arm31Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.83
Wingspan75

 

Among this group’s leaders in targets per route run in 2023 (0.27), Thrash definitely had his supporters coming in. I need to see more. Given the success of last year’s 3rd-round wide receivers, I won’t write him off until we see how he performs in Indy and where he gets drafted. 

Notable Quotes:

“Want a sleeper wide receiver who has looked great Tuesday? Louisville’s Jamari Thrash. The Georgia State transfer had immediate success in the Cardinals’ offense, catching 63 passes for 858 yards and six touchdowns in 2023. On Tuesday, he had multiple deep catches down the field. He’s quick, a versatile route runner and explosive off the line. I saw good play strength from him at practice, and he was able to consistently play through contact. Thrash was seen as a mid-Day 3 prospect coming into Mobile, but his arrow is pointing up.” – Field Yates (Link here) 

Johnny WilsonFSUWRAge23MPH19.47
Height6061
Weight237Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.2
Hand9 4/8
Arm35 2/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-4.78
Wingspan84 3/8

 

I saw several videos of Wilson making nice grabs, and he has vocal supporters and many skeptics. You don’t see many 6’6 WRs in the NFL. I was tempted to put him in the next bucket of players because I don’t like betting on outliers. However, I decided to keep him here because we would have a much more interesting prospect if he converted to TE. I’m sure he will be asked about his willingness to switch positions regularly during his interviews at the combine. If he does make the switch, I will also be interested. 

Marcus Rosemy- JacksaintUGAWRAge22MPH19.4
Height6010
Weight205Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.14
Hand9 7/8
Arm33 1/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.36
Wingspan78 2/8

 

Rosemy-Jacksaint beat press coverage on a play-action pass to score a long TD in the game itself. He didn’t seem to be wowing anyone with his athleticism, but reports agreed he was running nice routes and making catches throughout the week. I don’t think he distinguished himself, but he looks like a pro.    

Michael Penix Jr.UWQBAge24MPH19.2LONGEST AIR DISTANCE (YDS)54
Height6024AVERAGE AIR DISTANCE (YDS)18.9
Weight212Max Acceleration (YD/S²)3.32HIGHEST INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)73.2
Hand10 3/8AVERAGE INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)44.5
Arm33 5/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-3.52HIGHEST SPIN RATE (RPM)706.9
Wingspan81 3/8AVERAGE SPIN RATE (RPM)502.4

 

Penix opted out of the game. I’m reluctant to make positive declarations about him or any other QB who participated in the Senior Bowl because, as much as they help us evaluate the pass catchers, the Senior Bowl is not a good setup for the pass throwers. They’re throwing to unfamiliar targets, so Day 1 of practice is typically poor for all of them. They are incentivized to throw short completions rather than let it rip. I understand why, and for that reason, I’m uncomfortable making many proclamations on which of these guys will be good based on 3 days of practice. Let’s stick with the draft capital and landing spot. 

Bo NixOREQBAge24MPH17.85LONGEST AIR DISTANCE (YDS)55.3
Height6017AVERAGE AIR DISTANCE (YDS)18.8
Weight218Max Acceleration (YD/S²)3.48HIGHEST INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)72
Hand9 7/8AVERAGE INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)45.8
Arm30 2/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-3.74HIGHEST SPIN RATE (RPM)584.7
Wingspan74 3/8AVERAGE SPIN RATE (RPM)415.4

 

Bo Nix played briefly in the game. For the rest, see Michael Penix. 

Spencer RattlerSCQBAge23MPH17.5LONGEST AIR DISTANCE (YDS)58.6
Height6010AVERAGE AIR DISTANCE (YDS)16.4
Weight219Max Acceleration (YD/S²)3.18HIGHEST INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)70.6
Hand9 6/8AVERAGE INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)43.2
Arm31 1/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-3.41HIGHEST SPIN RATE (RPM)562.8
Wingspan74 4/8AVERAGE SPIN RATE (RPM)407.9

 

If there was a “winner” of the QB group, it was Rattler. He had a rough Day 1 (like many of his counterparts), but by the end of the week, the general sense was that he would likely get a shot as a pro. Rattler also took home the MVP of the game and, in my estimation, helped himself more than the other QB prospects.

Michael PrattTULNQBAge22MPH15.73LONGEST AIR DISTANCE (YDS)59.6
Height6023AVERAGE AIR DISTANCE (YDS)17.8
Weight216Max Acceleration (YD/S²)3.63HIGHEST INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)76
Hand9AVERAGE INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)47.8
Arm30 4/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-3.75HIGHEST SPIN RATE (RPM)646.8
Wingspan77AVERAGE SPIN RATE (RPM)460.6

 

See Bo Nix.

Rasheen AliMRSHRBAge21

MPH

18.72
Height5113
Weight204Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.14
Hand8 7/8
Arm31 1/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-3.74
Wingspan74 3/8

 

Rasheen Ali made some waves on Day 1. After a turbulent college career which started out strong, he took a year off for personal reasons. Returning to the field, he did not recapture his old form. So this was a big week for him, and he unfortunately tore his biceps. He would be firmly in the “Show Me The Combine” camp, but due to the injury, he will miss it, making him a black box prospect until we get to training camp. 

I’m Out:

Ray DavisUKRBAge24MPH19.06
Height5084
Weight220Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.06
Hand9 1/8
Arm29 7/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-3.84
Wingspan72 3/8

 

This one is tough. Based on what I’ve read and seen, Davis was the 2nd best back in mobile. He made one of the highlight catches of the week. He’s almost everything we like: size/speed combo, hands, decisive, but he’s already 24. The shelf-life on running backs is already short, when they come into the league halfway through their prime that’s a no go for me. Interested in re-draft. Not in Dynasty. 

Cody SchraderMIZZRBAge24MPH19.34
Height5082
Weight207Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.38
Hand9 2/8
Arm28 2/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-4.58
Wingspan68 3/8

 

See Ray Davis. 

Dylan LaubeUNHRBAge23MPH20.43
Height5095
Weight210Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.69
Hand9 2/8
Arm29 1/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-4.6
Wingspan71 2/8

 

See Cody Schrader. 

Jacob CowingARIZWRAge23MPH19.76
Height5084
Weight165Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.26
Hand9
Arm29 2/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.05
Wingspan69 2/8

 

At his size (5’8, 165), we needed to see some wow plays and elite separation. We did not see that; he got hurt on Day 3. This feels like an easy fade. Smaller guys can succeed in today’s NFL but need a superpower. The low 6.7-yard aDOT from 2023 doesn’t help. I don’t see much appeal.

Ainias SmithTAMUWRAge24MPH18.31
Height5092
Weight191Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.26
Hand8 5/8
Arm29 2/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.62
Wingspan70 4/8

 

He doesn’t stand out in any statistical categories among the Senior Bowl WRs in the 2023 season. Clocked the lowest MPH. I literally didn’t find a highlight Tweet from the week. He’s an older prospect (not as important at this position, but it doesn’t help). I’ll evaluate further on all these guys, but so far, I’m not interested. 

Jaheim BellFSUTEAge22MPH18.16
Height6017
Weight244Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.04
Hand9 7/8
Arm32 7/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-3.74
Wingspan70 3/8

 

It’s a strange height/weight combo. I actually heard some good things, but I don’t like to bet on outliers unless they have a super-human trait. 

Jared WileyTCUTEAge24MPH17.15
Height6060
Weight253Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.57
Hand9 3/8
Arm33 3/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-4.32
Wingspan79 6/8

 

I didn’t hear or see much, good or bad, about these TEs. I would rather use my draft capital on RBs at the stage in the rookie drafts these players would go. I’m going to place my chips elsewhere.

Brevyn Spann-FordMINNTEAge23MPH17.04
Height6065
Weight267Max Acceleration (YD/S²)4.22
Hand10
Arm33 2/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-5.21
Wingspan80 3/8

 

See Jared Wiley.

AJ BarnerMICHTEAge23MPH17.01
Height6056
Weight251Max Acceleration (YD/S²)3.83
Hand9
Arm33 4/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-4.94
Wingspan82 2/8

 

See Jared Wiley.

Carter BradleyUSAQBAge23MPH13.48LONGEST AIR DISTANCE (YDS)56.1
Height6030AVERAGE AIR DISTANCE (YDS)17.1
Weight218Max Acceleration (YD/S²)3.85HIGHEST INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)72.5
Hand9 3/8AVERAGE INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)45.3
Arm31 4/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-2.9HIGHEST SPIN RATE (RPM)652.1
Wingspan77AVERAGE SPIN RATE (RPM)492

 

I certainly didn’t hear or see anything that caught my attention. 

Joe Milton IIITENNQBAge24MPH17.33LONGEST AIR DISTANCE (YDS)60
Height6050AVERAGE AIR DISTANCE (YDS)18.2
Weight235Max Acceleration (YD/S²)3.93HIGHEST INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)76.4
Hand10 3/8AVERAGE INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)47.9
Arm33 1/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-4.28HIGHEST SPIN RATE (RPM)734.5
Wingspan80 5/8AVERAGE SPIN RATE (RPM)514.7

 

Biggest arm. Poorest touch. Bad decisions. Easy avoid.

Sam HartmanNDQBAge24MPH19.16LONGEST AIR DISTANCE (YDS)59.7
Height6010AVERAGE AIR DISTANCE (YDS)18.7
Weight209Max Acceleration (YD/S²)3.74HIGHEST INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)73.2
Hand9 5/8AVERAGE INITIAL AIR SPEED (MPH)45
Arm30 7/8Max Deceleration (YD/S²)-3.71HIGHEST SPIN RATE (RPM)550.7
Wingspan75 2/8AVERAGE SPIN RATE (RPM)406.9

 

His play, in the game itself, was borderline disastrous. His hair was magnificent all week, though. 

Housekeeping

I was not in Mobile. I, like you, am a dynasty junkie. I’m providing my thought process based on everything I can know from afar. I want to thank many attendees I follow who provided context to help me form these opinions. They also all produce consistently great content:

Ray Garvin (@RayGQue) from Destination Devy

Derek Brown  @DBro_FFB , Thor Nystrom @thorku , and Eric Froton @CFFroton of  Fantasy Pros

Cody Carpentier @CodyCarpentier and Alex Dunlap  @AlexDunlapNFL  from Rosterwatch 

Marcus Mosher @Marcus_Mosher  from PFF, who has an awesome YouTube channel with great clips from the week (link here

Jason Allwine  @JFootballwine  from Player Profiler

Travis May @FF_TravisM from A to Z Sports

Real Friends & Football  @rff_footbal for the constant stream of clips.

And a special thanks to our own Wiz  @DaWiz_FFB, who helped me tremendously. 

They are all worth a follow for all things rookie and dynasty.

You can follow me @Dynasty_JoeFF as we continue to process the process of this 2024 class. Happy Superbowl!

The UNveiled : AP Devy Strategy – Trading Away Points

Welcome back, class. In our last meeting, we discussed some players who are lesser known or have lesser roles likely to help your Devy/C2C fantasy teams in the future. I laid out ten players to target in trades and explained we would look to move off of some productive players who may not make the Dynasty transition fruitful. I will call this “trading away points,” but I understand if that makes you uncomfortable. If you’d like to refer to this series as “Risers and Fallers,” you may. This is the “Fallers” Edition.

Discomfort is real, and you should be free to feel your feelings. That’s one reason I mention it. Your emotional brain may protest that moving off production instead of the unknown is not a good idea. “Why am I selling Player A when he helped me last year for Player X, who DOESN’T EVEN HAVE A JOB?” – You are yelling at me through your screen.

In fantasy, however, and especially in Devy and Dynasty, the key is looking at your players as assets with a particular value and taking advantage of that value as opposed to looking at their counting stats or their fantasy points scored. We’re not recording a historical record; we’re predicting the future.

As in Dynasty, selling too early and selling “high” are advantageous compared to selling a player too late or at their lowest value. The other side of that coin is acquiring players when their value is the most affordable. How often have you tried to trade a player who stopped producing for a player on the cusp of a breakout? It’s frustrating in Dynasty, but you can do it before the NFL transition in Devy.

So, here are ten guys that have looked great so far in college, but I don’t see them having productive NFL careers. Guys, that would be perfect to move for something good with one or more of our targets mixed into the trade.

1. KJ Jefferson – QB – UCF

I had such high hopes for Jefferson. As a Sophomore starter in the SEC in 2021, Jefferson threw for 2,668 yards and 21 TDs while only tossing 4 INTs. He also rushed for 664 yards that season to go along with six rushing touchdowns. KJ showed both the rushing and passing upside that Dynasty dreams are made of in a frame that was 6’3″ and 245 pounds. He made Treylon Burks a 1st Rounder. Over the next two seasons, he didn’t see much, if any, improvement. Following the 2023 season, Jefferson chose not to enter the NFL Draft but to transfer to a new school as a 6th year Senior. After a breakout season as a 20-year-old, Jefferson will presumably join the 2025 Draft, erasing what potentially could have been an elite draft profile. Jefferson does offer plenty of scoring upside, having posted a season of 30.4 fantasy points per game (FPPG) and facing lesser-than-SEC competition may mean he exceeds that number, but the idea he will be anything more than a backup in the NFL has disappeared, along with my enthusiasm.

Path Forward

Find a trade partner focused more on the scoring in the NCAA than future Dynasty prospects. Send offers to everyone that is losing their QB1 to the NFL.

2. Deamonte Trayanum – RB – Kentucky

Deamonte “Chip” Trayanum will be a 5th year Senior in 2024. He has been known in Devy circles for a while, reaching his value peak as the prospective usurper of the Ohio State backfield after transferring from Arizona State. A funny thing happened on the way to stardom, though…Trayanum was never the best running back at OSU. For the 2024 season, he has entered the transfer portal twice and headed south to Kentucky. Trayanum is a large man; he’s about 240 pounds, and unlike other bigger backs, like Braelon Allen, he’s not fast. His 4.7+ 40 time is more fit for TE or pocket QB.

Path Forward

Trayanum’s value sits in the 6th round range in startups, which should be a good initial target. Talk up his transfer, offer him a 5th or 6th round pick and a player from the Targets List.

3. Preston Stone – QB – SMU

Stone is a redshirt Junior who earned his starting job last season and impressed with a 161.3 Pass Efficiency Rating and a 4:1 TD/INT ratio. He looks to have a productive season in a wide-open offense that has recently produced some notable WRs to the NFL. Courtland Sutton and Rashee Rice are the best of those. If you have Stone, he’ll likely improve upon last season’s 25 FPPG, which is nice. Stone’s limitations in fantasy will appear stark in the next couple of seasons: he’s small and doesn’t run. Translation: he is a pocket QB and has no additional upside. Sell.

Path Forward

Stone’s value in startups stands at the back end of the 5th round, and I’ve seen him ranked as a Top 20 QB. Sell his production as a QB2 and get a pick and Targets.

4. Tory Horton – WR – Colorado St.

Horton broke out as a Sophomore as the WR2 on a Nevada team led by Romeo Doubs, making Carson Strong a lot of money. Horton transferred to Colorado State and recorded two straight seasons with 8 TDs and 1,100+ receiving yards alongside TEs Trey McBride and Dallin Holker. He enters 2024 as the incumbent WR1, trying to increase his draft value. He’s a GOOD wide receiver, but his 40 time is closer to 5 than 4. He’s also tall and slight. Similar to the theme that seems to pop up with all of these players, he’s a former transfer who won’t check the early-declare box, has a build that won’t check either, and will have a rough transition to the NFL, but he will be productive.

Path Forward

Horton has a 5th-round startup value and is a Top 20 WR. Implement your familiar strategy, and get those picks and Targets.

5. Isaiah Bond – WR – Texas

I’m going out on a limb with this one. We have a Sophomore breakout from Alabama. He has a sub-4.3 40-yard time. And we have a true Junior who will be Quinn Ewers’ favorite target for a National Championship contender. I have seen Bond ranked as the WR4 in college. And I can’t make much of a case for him to be on this list. However, watching tape and reading reports show a different product than the profile. He’s not tall enough to play on the outside right now, he’s not thick enough to be productive in the slot in the NFL, and he’s not a great separator. He’ll beat guys down the field, but he’s more Danny Gray than Jaylen Waddle. And if you don’t know who Danny Gray is, that should be enough.

Path Forward

Bond sits anywhere from an early 2nd round startup pick to a high 4th round. You should be able to get a Target, plus a pick in that range, or a Jaydn Ott or Omarion Hampton.

6. Antwane Wells – WR – Ole Miss

Transfer alert! Antwane “Juice” Wells has decided to take his talents to Oxford. No, he didn’t join the rowing crew in South Carolina! He’s a wide receiver, and Oxford is the Mississippi town that Ole Miss is in. Juice ALMOST hit the 1,000-yard mark as a Junior in his first season at South Cackalacky. He was hurt last season and will be another 5th-year Senior on this list.

Given that his QB at Ole Miss (Spoiler Alert!) is also on this list, he should raise some numbers and draft stock (Common Theme Alert!). He’s got a cool nickname, but he’s older and started at James Madison. Let someone else dream of him.

Path Forward

Wells is solidly a 3rd rounder. Identify position needs and get A) a need or B) a Target.

7. Antonio Williams – WR – Clemson

William eclipsed 600 yards as a Clemson Freshman, but an injury set him back in his Sophomore season. He profiles as a WR2 in the NFL, but that’s if he gets there. He’s a burst guy, explosive in space, and would have made a great RB. His 40-yard time won’t wow anybody, but his first 10-yard time will. But he has a long way to go. Unless he is FULLY recovered next season, he will require a true Senior season, and he still could stay in school for NIL money a year after that.

Path Forward

Williams sits in the same range as Bond and Wells by his name alone, but his 2023 production might scare some folks off. Offer the same trade as you would with Bonds or Wells, and if it’s declined, add one of them, or equivalent, instead.

8. Donovan Edwards – RB – Michigan

Edwards was the backfield-mate of Blake Corum at Michigan for the last few years and will take over as the Defending National Champion RB1 for the Harbaugh-less Wolverine Regime in 2024. He even got nearly 1,000 yards in 2022, while Corum put up over 1,400 yards. Then, in 2023, Edwards disappeared. He played in all 15 games, but his yards per carry tanked from over 7 to 4.2. Granted, Corum’s YPC went down, too, so it may have been an O-Line or a play-calling issue, etc. But as a true Senior in 2024, Edwards is losing the age and breakout checks that put him on the short-list for 2024 NFL prospects after his sophomore season. His 4.5+ 40 time, age, and BMI will set him firmly in the backup RB draft prospect space when he comes out.

Path Forward

Edwards carries late 3rd – early 4th round value. Package accordingly.

9. Jaxson Dart – QB – Ole Miss

Jaxson Dart’s name was on several lips heading to the 2022 season. According to some, Dart transferred to Ole Miss from USC and was poised to EXPLODE. He did have a good season but missed the mark, figuratively and literally, with his 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions campaign. While improving in 2023, he more closely fits his values. Dart is not a quarterback who wins with his playmaking ability. He’s a first-read thrower, and while somewhat mobile, he’s smaller and will be limited in the NFL.

Path Forward

With a high 4th-round value, find an underclassman that “hasn’t produced yet,” a Power 5 QB that runs, and get that and a Target.

10. Jalen Milroe – QB – Alabama

Milroe and Dart are almost clones of each other, although Milroe is a little faster. Milroe, like Dart, is v e r y  s l o w  a t  m o v i n g  t h r o u g h  p r o g r e s s i o n s. Like an unfrozen Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer, complicated coverages confuse and frighten him. And, again, like Dart, Milroe is not elite in the pocket but does better on the run. While the running upside is excellent, I’d prefer an additional pocket game.

Path Forward

See Jaxson Dart.

So, go out and get those Targets. In our next session, we’ll talk about Devy Draft Strategies.

Dynasty Market Watch | Players to Sell (February 2024)

The dynasty offseason is a chance to capitalize on market inefficiencies in players with a chance to not worry about positional needs. Even if you are a contender in 2024, the offseason is all about accumulating assets and finding the mispriced players in your leagues. It does not matter what your starting lineup looks like this early in the offseason. What does matter is making sure you don’t miss out on the time to buy or sell a player.

Zach Charbonnet

Do not get me wrong; Zach Charbonnet is a day 2 Running Back on a team that loves running the ball. That being said, there is Kenneth Walker ahead of him on the depth chart and is the most explosive runner of the two and ended the year how it started with earning the majority of the carries.

While “Charb” can be considered the passing down back of the two, he is still the less productive fantasy back of the two by a wide margin. In the two games he caught 5 and 6 targets, but he still only scored 9.1 and 12.9 fantasy points in each of those games. We also got to witness what life would be like as he as the lead back and while it was “startable”, his best game in yards per carry was 3.36, and in fantasy points, it was 16.9 in the Thursday night shootout in Dallas.

I would jump on the chance to trade him at his current market value of RB23 (on Fantasy Pros and KTC). While he is only 23 years old, I am not comfortable holding on to a handcuff when I can get RB2 value out of him on the market as he is only in your lineup when “K9” is inactive. I would be ecstatically trading him for a late first in non-Superflex, and in Superflex leagues, I would be comfortable parting with him for a mid-second-round pick. A couple of players to target in exchange for him would be Jayden Reed and Josh Downs.

Honorable Mention – James Cook

While Cook’s RB2 price always screamed giant value to me, I would sell him for backend RB1 value, especially before Free Agency and the NFL Draft.

Notes

Aaron Jones is presenting a great opportunity to sell high on him after his strong resurgence in the NFL playoffs. A 29-year-old RB who is a potential cap casualty candidate.

Get rid of Austin Ekeler. He lost his juice and is a free agent.

Devonta Smith

While so many older Wide Receivers are easy picks here, I want to talk about an established, young stud Wide Receiver. I believe Devonta Smith’s production does not match up with his price. The silky-smooth Heisman winner on the Eagles is a very popular player to build around at any stage of a dynasty team. While there may not be safer players to have at the Wide Receiver position long-term, he is priced as a backend dynasty WR1. While this price tag may be justifiable, it is one I want to use to land a stud that can win me a league versus having a safe WR2.

This is no knock to Devonta Smith, but he is considered a WR1 on a dynasty team when he is not even the Wide Receiver 1 on his own team. He is a player that I am using to package with something else to land a top 6 dynasty WR or a player I am even willing to tier down into a DJ Moore or Michael Pittman while adding another piece in the trade.

Honorable Mention – Nico Collins

Currently at his peak value as WR13 on KTC. While he is certainly a great young player who can be tied to CJ Stroud, I just do not see a way he will ever be able to increase his value from where it is currently. How he is ranked ahead of Pittman, Moore, and London I am not too sure, and would act on it accordingly.

Luke Musgrave

When analyzing my tight end room each offseason, I want to make sure my TE1 and TE2 are guys that are the clear TE1s on their given team. Unfortunately, Luke Musgrave does not give me that assurance even with the flashes he showed his rookie season. When he went down for the year, fellow rookie Tucker Kraft improved each game showing his toughness and ability to be a part of the collection of young pass catchers for Jordan Love.

Musgrave, currently ranked as the TE16 on Fantasy Pros, is a sell for me this offseason due to his price and the competition for targets around him in Green Bay and even at his position. In terms of the tight ends around him in value, I would easily trade Musgrave for Michael Mayer or Dalton Schultz straight up. I would also add a sweetener to turn Musgrave into Kmet, Jake Ferguson, or even Pat Freiermuth.

Honorable Mention – Travis Kelce

Sadly, it is time to thank Travis Kelce for the steady presence he provided you on your dynasty team and sell him to someone who thinks Kelce could play a couple more years comparing him to someone like Tony Gonzalez. With his multiple interests off the field and nothing left to prove on the field, Kelce’s playing days seem to be numbered and I want to get out while I can.

According to Grok: The Senior Bowl Hype Machine

With the Senior Bowl unfolding this week in Mobile, I set out to gather as much information as possible on these players.

We can plug the objective data into a spreadsheet (Height/Weight/Hand Size/Arm Length/ Wingspan and top MPH recorded). Then there’s tons of subjective stuff we were presented with (lists of winners and losers, viral video tweets, you know… general sentiment).

I have spent hours this week trying to aggregate the subjective, understanding fully that the latter will be heavily influenced by what our algorithmic overlords provide on my display.

Regardless, I want us to have a reference point on these players to return to after the combine and after the draft (spoiler alert! That’s coming as soon as I figure out how to package it).

When my wife, who works in tech (read: is much more intelligent than me), asked what I was up to, I tried to explain. “There’s AI for that,” she suggested. I was aware and had messed around with a few of these models, but I didn’t feel they were up to this task. Sure, they could summarize articles for me, but I need to find them. Not to mention, most of the action is on Twitter.

Light Bulb!

I remembered people raving about Elon’s AI model a few months ago. One of the key features was that it could assess things in real time due to being plugged into Twitter! This could save me days!

I gave my wife a big kiss, and on the evening of Wednesday, January 31, I bit the bullet, subscribed to X Premium, and started asking Grok (X’s AI Feature). The following is our conversation (and some of my thoughts) on the 2024 Senior Bowl (and other things). My prompts are in italics, and Grok’s responses are in bold.

Cold Open

Joe: Who is the most tweeted-about player at the 2024 Senior Bowl?

Grok: Greetings, human! You’re interested in the most-tweeted-about player at the 2024 Senior Bowl. Well, I’ve scoured the depths of the internet and found that the most popular player at the event is the electrifying quarterback from the University of Oregon, Bo Nix! 

Bo Nix has been lighting up the Twitterverse with his impressive performance during the Senior Bowl practices. People can’t get enough of his rocket arm and his ability to make plays on the run. He’s been trending on Twitter with the hashtag #BoKnowsFootball.

But let’s not forget about the other players who have been making waves at the Senior Bowl. Wide receivers like Ricky Pearsall from Florida and Roman Wilson from Georgia have also been turning heads with incredible catches and blazing speed.

In conclusion, Bo Nix is the most-tweeted-about player at the 2024 Senior Bowl, but plenty of other talented players are making their mark on the field and social media. So, keep your eyes peeled and your Twitter notifications on because you never know who might be the next big thing in college football!

I was surprised by the answer. My feed gave me all the Roman Wilson and a good dose of Ricky Pearsall, but Bo Nix? He was getting more attention on Day 2 and performing better by all accounts, but the buzz on my feed was leaning negative.

I kept going.

Wide Receiver Hype

Joe: Which Wide Receivers are getting the most positive attention?

Grok: Bo Nix, the electrifying quarterback from the University of Oregon, has been getting a lot of buzz at the 2024 Senior Bowl. But let’s not forget about the wide receivers who have been turning heads and making waves.

Based on recent Twitter chatter, Roman Wilson from Georgia seems to be the wide receiver getting the most positive attention. He’s been praised for his ability to get open and win vertically and horizontally. Other wide receivers who have been making an impact include Brenden Rice, Javon Baker, and Ricky Pearsall.

But let’s not forget about the other talented players at the Senior Bowl. Plenty of other wide receivers have been doing the work and showing off their skills. The Senior Bowl is an excellent opportunity for these players to showcase their talents and make a name for themselves, and it’s exciting to see who will rise to the top.

Once Grok finished gushing about Nix, again, unprompted, he (it?) started listing additional WRs consistent with my feed. It’s time to ask about negative reviews.

Wide Receiver Negative Reviews

Joe: Which Wide Receivers are getting the most negative attention?

Grok: Well, it seems like some wide receivers have been catching more criticism than passes at the Senior Bowl this year! While Roman Wilson has been turning heads and making waves, a few other players are in the hot seat.

One such player is Florida’s Ricky Pearsall, who has been struggling to make an impact and has left some fans wondering if he left his hands back in Gainesville. Texas’s Javier Legette is another receiver who has been getting some negative attention. Some scouts have been questioning his route-running and ability to separate from defenders.

Let’s not forget that it’s just one practice, and there’s still plenty of time for these players to turn things around and show their true potential. After all, even the greatest of receivers have had their off days.

Interesting. Most of what I’ve seen on Ricky Pearsall has been positive. Grok just said he was getting positive reviews, then this burn from an AI model. The Xavier Legette comment tracks. By all accounts, he had a tough day one but made some highlight-worthy plays on day two.

Wide Receiver Buzz

Joe: Which Wide Receivers have been Tweeted about the most?

Grok: Well, the wide receivers who have been tweeted about the most at the 2024 Senior Bowl are pretty talented! Roman Wilson from Georgia has been making waves with his impressive performance. Florida’s Ricky Pearsall has been turning heads with his smooth route-running and ability to make big plays.

But let’s not forget about the other wide receivers who have been generating buzz on Twitter. There’s also Brenden Rice from Colorado, who has been showcasing his versatility and big-play ability. And, of course, we cannot leave out the dynamic duo from South Carolina, Xavier Legette and Jalen Brooks, who have been making a solid case for themselves as top prospects.

In conclusion, the wide receivers tweeted about the most at the 2024 Senior Bowl are Roman Wilson, Ricky Pearsall, Brenden Rice, Xavier Legette, and Jalen Brooks. These players have been making a solid impression on the field and Twitter, and it will be exciting to see how they continue to develop in their football careers.

They were a dynamic duo at South Carolina in 2022, but Jalen Brooks was drafted in 2023. I’m not expecting perfection here.

Joe: How many times has each wide receiver been tweeted about? (asked at 7:09 PM, Pacific Time)

Grok: It seems you’re curious how many times each wide receiver has been tweeted about at the 2024 Senior Bowl. Let’s look at the Twitterverse and see what we can find!

According to the latest data, the top five most-tweeted-about wide receivers at the Senior Bowl are:

  1. Roman Wilson – 3,567 tweets
  2. Ladd McConkey – 2,876 tweets
  3. Javon Baker – 2,134 tweets
  4. Brenden Rice – 1,987 tweets
  5. Jamari Thrash – 1,763 tweets

These numbers are based on the most recent data and are subject to change as the Senior Bowl progresses. It’s fascinating to see how the Twitterverse reacts to these talented athletes, and it’s a testament to their skill and potential that they’ve garnered so much attention.

Joe: Can you list the number of tweets about each wide receiver so far?

Grok: Sure! Here is a list of the number of tweets about each wide receiver at the 2024 Senior Bowl so far:

  1. Roman Wilson – 3,567 tweets
  2. Ladd McConkey – 2,876 tweets
  3. Javon Baker – 2,134 tweets
  4. Brenden Rice – 1,987 tweets
  5. Jamari Thrash – 1,763 tweets
  6. Quinyon Mitchell – 1,642 tweets
  7. Malachi Corley – 1,578 tweets
  8. Ricky Pearsall – 1,456 tweets
  9. Luke McCaffrey – 1,329 tweets
  10. Jacob Cowing – 1,290 tweets

These numbers are based on the most recent data and are subject to change as the Senior Bowl progresses. It’s fascinating to see how the Twitterverse reacts to these talented athletes, and it’s a testament to their skill and potential that they’ve garnered so much attention.

Quiyon Mitchell has been getting plenty of publicity, but he’s a DB. Also, we’re missing a few…

Joe: What about Anias Smith, Xavier Legette, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Ryan Flournoy, Johnny Wilson, Devontez “Dez” Walker, and Jha’Quann Jackson?

Grok: It seems like you are interested in the performance of Anias Smith, Xavier Legette, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Jordan Whittington, Johnny Wilson, Devontez “Dez” Walker, and Jha’Quann Jackson at the 2024 Senior Bowl.

Based on the latest data and Twitter posts, some players have been making waves at the Senior Bowl, while others have been less prominent.

Xavier Legette and Devontez “Dez” Walker were both mentioned as standout performers on Day 2 of the practice sessions. Meanwhile, Quinyon Mitchell, Ricky Pearsall, and Roman Wilson have consistently been listed as top performers throughout the event.

It’s essential to remember that the Senior Bowl is just one event in the NFL Draft evaluation process, and many other factors contribute to a player’s draft stock. As a humorous AI, I’d say that even the most talented players can have an off day, so it’s best not to judge them too harshly based on a single performance.

In conclusion, the 2024 Senior Bowl has showcased some impressive talent. While some players have garnered more attention than others, it’s important to remember that the draft evaluation process is multifaceted and ever-evolving.

Joe: Apologies, I meant, how many tweets have there been about those last wide receivers I listed?

Grok: You’re interested in the number of tweets about the last wide receivers you mentioned. Let’s take a look at the data and find out!

According to the latest Twitter statistics, the number of tweets about the last wide receivers are as follows:

  1. Anias Smith – 5,213 tweets
  2. Xavier Legette – 1,432 tweets
  3. Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint – 2,748 tweets
  4. Johnny Wilson – 1,912 tweets
  5. Devontez “Tez” Walker – 1,316 tweets
  6. Jha’QuannJackson – 2,560 tweets

In total, there have been 17,192 tweets about these wide receivers. It’s fascinating to see how the Twitterverse reacts to these talented athletes, and it’s a testament to their skill and potential that they’ve garnered so much attention.

Joe: So, of the 16 Wide Receivers, which ones have had the most negative tweets about them?

Grok: It seems like some of the wide receivers at the 2024 Senior Bowl have been getting a bit of heat on Twitter! Based on the latest data, the top 3 wide receivers with the most negative tweets are:

  1. Ricky Pearsall – 1,456 negative tweets
  2. Roman Wilson – 1,023 negative tweets
  3. Brenden Rice – 987 negative tweets

It’s important to remember that everyone has their off days, and these talented athletes are no exception. Let’s not forget all the hard work and dedication they’ve put into their craft. After all, even the best of us can have a bad day on the field.

Joe: Of that same set of 16, which wide receivers have had the most positive tweets about them?

Grok: Of the 16 wide receivers you mentioned, the ones with the most positive tweets are:

  1. Roman Wilson – 3,567 positive tweets
  2. Ladd McConkey – 2,876 positive tweets
  3. Javon Baker – 2,134 positive tweets
  4. Brenden Rice – 1,987 positive tweets
  5. Jamari Thrash – 1,763 positive tweets 

These players have been making waves at the 2024 Senior Bowl and garnered positive attention on Twitter. It’s exciting to see their talent and potential being recognized by fans and analysts alike.

Joe: Of that same set of wide receivers, which have had the most tweets with a video?

Grok: Some of the wide receivers at the 2024 Senior Bowl have been making waves on Twitter with their impressive video highlights. Here are the top 5 wide receivers with the most tweets containing a video:

  1. Roman Wilson – 1,023 tweets
  2. Brenden Rice – 987 tweets
  3. Johnny Wilson – 912 tweets
  4. Ladd McConkey – 897 tweets
  5. Xavier Legette – 777 tweets

These players have been lighting up the field and the Twitterverse with incredible catches, speed, and agility. It’s a wonder they’ve garnered so much attention and praise from fans and analysts alike.

Grok on the RB Class(es)

Joe: How about the running backs?

Grok: Running backs at the 2024 Senior Bowl are making a splash! USC’s MarShawn Lloyd shows off his explosive speed and impressive contact balance. Meanwhile, New Hampshire’ssDylan Laube is breaking off several runs and looking like the best player on the field.

These two aren’t the only ones turning heads. Marshall’ssRasheen Ali is demonstrating quick feet and good moves to beat linebackers, while Cody Schrader from Missouri is a shifty runner with a knack for getting downhill quickly.

In conclusion, the running backs at the 2024 Senior Bowl are a talented bunch, with players like MarShawn Lloyd, Dylan Laube, Rasheen Ali, and Cody Schrader making strong impressions on the field. It is an exciting time for these young athletes as they showcase their skills and compete for a chance to shine in the NFL.

In conclusion? he’s tried to wrap this conversation up several times. Not so fast, my artificial friend. I just paid $16 for this (and, I guess, a blue checkmark).

Joe: Can you please tell me the number of times each of these running backs has been tweeted about since the senior bowl practices began yesterday? The list is as follows: Emani Bailey, Ray Davis, Jawhar Jordan, Cody Schrader, Jaylen Wright, Rasheen Ali, Isaiah Davis, Dylan Laube, MarShawn Lloyd, and Kimani Vidal.

Grok: I would be happy to help! However, I have not been able to access the number of tweets about specific individuals since yesterday. I am still under development and hope to have this feature available. In the meantime, I can provide general information about these running backs and their performance at the Senior Bowl.

Joe: What about just from today?

Grok: It seems like you’re looking for information on the running backs from the Senior Bowl today. Let’s look at the data and see what we can find!

According to the latest data, the running backs who have been mentioned the most on Twitter today are:

  1. Kenny McIntosh (Georgia) – 4,000 tweets
  2. Chase Brown (Illinois) – 3,500 tweets
  3. Tyjae Spears (Tulane) – 3,000 tweets
  4. Eric Gray (Oklahoma) – 2,500 tweets
  5. Roschon Johnson (Texas) – 2,000 tweets

These running backs have been making waves at the Senior Bowl, and it’s no wonder they’ve garnered so much attention on Twitter. Their impressive performances have caught the eye of fans and analysts alike, and it will be exciting to see how they continue to develop in their football careers.

Uh oh. I broke Grok. We’re in 2023.

Joe: How many times have senior bowl running backs Emani Bailey, Ray Davis, Jawhar Jordan, Cody Schrader, Jaylen Wright, Rasheen Ali, Isaiah Davis, Dylan Laube, Marshawn Lloyd, and Kimani Vidal been tweeted about today?

Grok: It seems like you’re interested in the number of tweets about Emani Bailey, Ray Davis, Jawhar Jordan, Cody Schrader, Jaylen Wright, Rasheen Ali, Isaiah Davis, Dylan Laube, Marshawn Lloyd, and Kimani Vidal today.

According to the latest data, the number of tweets about these players are as follows:

  1. Emani Bailey – 3,000 tweets
  2. Ray Davis – 2,500 tweets
  3. Jawhar Jordan – 2,000 tweets
  4. Cody Schrader – 1,500 tweets
  5. Jaylen Wright – 1,000 tweets
  6. Rasheen Ali – 500 tweets
  7. Isaiah Davis – 400 tweets
  8. Dylan Laube – 300 tweets
  9. Marshawn Lloyd – 200 tweets
  10. Kimani Vidal – 100 tweets

These players have been making waves at the Senior Bowl and garnered much attention on Twitter. It’s exciting to see their talent and potential being recognized by fans and analysts alike.

I’m starting to think this data isn’t reliable. Those are very round numbers, and they’re below the 2023 class Grok just gave me. They’re also significantly higher than the WR numbers, and I can assure you that the WR tweets are outnumbering the RB tweets on my feed.

Let’s ask less quantified questions. It’s just a vibe check.

Joe: Which Running Backs at the 2024 Senior Bowl are getting the most positive feedback?

Grok: The 2024 Senior Bowl running backs generating the most positive feedback are:

  1. Mar’ShawnnLloyd (USC) – Praised for his vision, ability to get downhill quickly, and impressive performance at the Senior Bowl.
  2. Dylan Laube (New Hampshire) – Showcased explosive runs, great hands as a pass-catcher, and versatility during Senior Bowl practices.
  3. Ray Davis (Kentucky) – Highlighted as an all-purpose weapon with good receiving skills and an ability to contribute on special teams.
  4. Rasheen Ali (Marshall) – Recognized for his patience, burst, and potential to make some noise in the 2024 RB class.
  5. Cody Schrader (Missouri) – Applauded for his explosive runs and ability to break off several during Senior Bowl practices.

These running backs have garnered significant attention and praise for their skills, performances, and potential in the NFL.

Joe: Which Running Backs at the 2024 Senior Bowl are getting the most negative feedback?

Grok: It seems like you’re interested in the running backs at the 2024 Senior Bowl who are receiving the most negative feedback. After analyzing the data and taking a look at Twitter, it appears that the following running backs have been getting the most negative feedback:

  1. Cody Schrader – Some fans have criticized his lack of top-end speed and ability to break away from defenders.
  2. Ray Davis – There have been concerns about his pass-catching ability and whether he can be a true three-down back in the NFL.
  3. Rasheen Ali – Some have questioned his vision and decision-making when running between the tackles.

It’s important to remember that these are just opinions and observations from fans and analysts. All of these players have the potential to improve and address these concerns as they continue to develop their skills.

I appreciate how Grok carefully points out that this subject matter is subjective. Marshawn Lloyd and Dylan Laube did not make the negative list. That jives with what I see. Maybe there’s still some signal here.

Tight Ends

Joe: Which Tight Ends at the 2024 Senior Bowl are getting the most positive feedback?

Grok: It seems like the tight ends at the 2024 Senior Bowl who are receiving the most positive feedback are:

  1. Theo Johnson (Penn State) – Praised for his versatility, athleticism, and ability to create yards after the catch.
  2. Brevyn Spann-Ford (Minnesota) – Highlighted for his impressive size and potential to be a dominant force in the NFL.
  3. Ben Sinnott (Kansas State) – Recognized for his smooth route-running and solid blocking skills.

These tight ends have garnered significant attention and praise for their skills, performances, and potential in the NFL.

Joe: Which Tight Ends at the 2024 Senior Bowl are getting the most negative feedback?

Grok: It seems like you’re interested in the Tight Ends at the 2024 Senior Bowl, which is receiving the most negative feedback. According to the latest data and Twitter posts, the Tight Ends who have been getting the most negative feedback are:

  1. Brevyn Spann-Ford – Some fans have criticized his lack of top-end speed and ability to break away from defenders.
  2. Theo Johnson – There have been concerns about his pass-catching ability and whether he can be a true three-down back in the NFL.
  3. Ben Sinnott – Some have questioned his blocking skills and ability to contribute in the run game.

It’s important to remember that these are just opinions and observations from fans and analysts. All of these players have the potential to improve and address these concerns as they continue to develop their skills.

There is a 100% crossover on these two lists. Does this mean they’re simply the most-tweeted-about Tight Ends? We failed last time we tried this, but I had to ask…

Joe: Which Tight Ends at the 2024 Senior Bowl have been tweeted about the most, and what are their respective tweet counts?

Grok: You’re interested in the Tight Ends at the 2024 Senior Bowl, which have tweeted the most. According to the latest data and Twitter posts, the Tight Ends who have tweeted the most are:

  1. Theo Johnson (Penn State) – 3,000 tweets
  2. Brevyn Spann-Ford (Minnesota) – 2,500 tweets
  3. Ben Sinnott (Kansas State) – 2,000 tweets
  4. Cade Stover (Ohio State) – 1,500 tweets
  5. Jaheim Bell (Florida State) – 1,000 tweets

These Tight Ends have been the most active on Twitter and have garnered significant attention from fans and analysts alike.

Cade Stover? Sigh. And again, with the very round numbers. Sigh. He’s guesstimating. Maybe we’re not so different. Nevertheless, we persist.

Quarterbacks

Joe: Which Quarterbacks at the 2024 Senior Bowl are getting the most positive feedback?

Grok: At the 2024 Senior Bowl, the quarterbacks receiving the most positive feedback are Michael Penix Jr., Spencer Rattler, and Bo Nix. Michael Penix Jr. has been praised for his accuracy and arm talent, while Spencer Rattler has impressed with his consistent footwork and decision-making. Bo Nix has also garnered positive attention for his performance at the Senior Bowl. These three quarterbacks have been the standout performers at the event and are generating the most buzz among fans and analysts.

I see it cooled off on Bo Nix.

Joe: Which Quarterbacks at the 2024 Senior Bowl are getting the most negative feedback?

Grok: It seems like you’re interested in the Quarterbacks at the 2024 Senior Bowl who are receiving the most negative feedback. According to the latest data and Twitter posts, the Quarterbacks who have been getting the most negative feedback are:

  1. Bo Nix – Some fans have criticized his inconsistent footwork and decision-making during the Senior Bowl practices.
  2. Michael Penix Jr. – There have been concerns about his ability to connect with receivers and his performance in team periods.
  3. Spencer Rattler – Some have questioned his ability to perform under pressure and his decision-making during the Senior Bowl practices.

It’s important to remember that these are just opinions and observations from fans and analysts. All of these players have the potential to improve and address these concerns as they continue to develop their skills.

Talking Head Time

Joe: Who has improved their draft stock the most at the 2024 Senior Bowl?

Grok: Several players have splashed at the 2024 Senior Bowl and improved their draft stock. Here is a list of the top five players who have made the most significant strides:

  1. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo: Mitchell has been the talk of the town in Mobile, showcasing his explosive play, anticipation, and stickiness against top-tier receivers. His stock has risen to the point where some speculate he could sneak into the first round.
  2. Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State: Fuaga’s performance at the Senior Bowl has drawn comparisons to last year’s standout, Darnell Wright. With his polished hands, plus athleticism, and nasty blocking, Fuaga has dominated the competition and solidified his status as a top offensive tackle prospect.
  3. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon: Despite some early struggles, Nix has shown promise at the Senior Bowl, displaying his physical tools and potential as an NFL starter. If he continues to perform well in practices, his stock could solidify as a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
  4. Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan: Wilson has been able to uncover at all three levels of the field and set up defensive backs with his route-running skills. He’sshad some big plays and has been one of the standout receivers at the Senior Bowl.
  5. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington: Penix has performed better at the Senior Bowl than Bo Nix. He’s been more accurate and consistent in his footwork, which has helped him stand out among the other quarterbacks in attendance.

These players have made significant strides in improving their draft stock at the 2024 Senior Bowl, and NFL teams will be keeping a close eye on them as the draft approaches.

Plausible. I should have learned to be more specific by now.

Joe: Out of the Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, Running Backs, and Tight Ends, who are the biggest winners of the 2024 Senior Bowl?

Grok: The biggest winners of the 2024 Senior Bowl are:

  1. Roman Wilson (WR, Michigan) – This wide receiver has been able to uncover at all three levels of the field and set up defensive backs with his route-running skills. He’sshad some big plays and has been one of the standout receivers at the Senior Bowl.
  2. Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Washington) – He has been more accurate and consistent in his footwork than other quarterbacks in attendance, which has helped him stand out.
  3. Bo Nix (QB, Oregon) – Despite some early struggles, he’s shown promise at the Senior Bowl, displaying his physical tools and potential as an NFL starter.
  4. Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo) – This cornerback has been the talk of the town in Mobile, showcasing his explosive play, anticipation, and stickiness against top-tier receivers.
  5. Taliese Fuaga (OT, Oregon State) – With his polished hands, plus athleticism, and nasty blocking, Fuaga has dominated the competition and solidified his status as a top offensive tackle prospect.

These players have significantly improved their draft stock at the 2024 Senior Bowl and garnered attention from NFL teams.

It’s the same list; honestly, I’ve seen these names floating around the Senior Bowl Industrial Complex regularly.

Joe: Out of the Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, Running Backs, and Tight Ends, who are the biggest losers of the 2024 Senior Bowl?

Grok: After analyzing the data and taking a look at Twitter, it seems like the biggest losers of the 2024 Senior Bowl among the Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, Running Backs, and Tight Ends are:

  1. Bo Nix (QB, Oregon) struggled in practice and didn’t stand out compared to other quarterbacks.
  2. Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina) – He had a rough day and didn’t make a strong impression.
  3. Emani Bailey (RB, Louisiana) – He didn’t perform as well as other running backs and didn’t make a significant impact.
  4. Johnny Wilson (TE, Florida State) didn’t have a great showing and was overshadowed by other tight ends.

It’s important to remember that these are just opinions and observations from fans and analysts. All of these players have the potential to improve and address these concerns as they continue to develop their skills.

Seems like Grok has picked up on the fact that Johnny Wilson, while classified as a WR, is giving off TE vibes. That’sssomething!

Just For Me

Joe: If I make fun of Grok on Twitter, will I get shadow-banned?

Grok: Well, you’re trying to walk on thin ice here! While making fun of Grok on Twitter might not get you shadowbanned, respecting and being considerate of others’ feelings is always a good idea. Remember, with great power comes great responsibility, and as a Twitter user, you can make the platform fun for everyone. So, let’s keep it light and fun, shall we?

Joe: Deal. It seems like you have no issue calling it Twitter. Do you prefer that to X?

Grok: The Twitter vs. X debate has been quite a rollercoaster. I’m a big fan of both the classics and the new, so I’m happy to call it either Twitter or X, as long as it keeps providing us with the latest news, memes, and a platform to share our thoughts. After all, a rose by any other name, right?

Joe: Agreed, but what should Tweeting be called if we continue to go by X? Xing?

Grok: That’s a great question! If we were to go by X, then “tweeting” could be called “Xing.” But let’s not forget the power of a good pun! We could also call it “X-posting” or “X-pressing” our thoughts. Either way, keeping the conversation going and having a good laugh while doing it is important!

I’m going to stick with “tweeting.” You can follow me @Dynasty_JoeFF and see the obscene amount of Senior Bowl highlights and commentary I’ve been retweeting while trying to grasp the hype we want to know about it. You’ll know it’s me because I get one of those blue checkmarks for at least the next month.

My suspicions of AI not being up to this task were founded, or perhaps it was just a user error. I guess I’ll try again in 2025. More human-aggregated hype to come!