Looking Back to Look Ahead | Senior Bowl WRs & RBs

With Senior Bowl practices set to begin on Tuesday, I wanted to look back at the last handful of Senior Bowls, particularly at the Wide Receivers and Running Backs, to create some general expectations for the 2024 class.

We can deduce a great deal from the last three years alone, and we will get into some NFL and Fantasy Rookie Draft Data for these two position groups. This week, though, we will get inundated with highlight clips, opinions on players, and some excellent info. Before we take that all in, let’s adjust our lenses. 

Based on recent history, I want to examine what’s important, what we should look for, and how we can apply this to fantasy.

What’s Important and What to Look For.

#1 – Most of the WRs and RBs in attendance will not be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, nor your rookie drafts.

Early declares still dominate the first-round landscapes. Right or wrong, conventional wisdom suggests that if a player broke out earlier in college, they are likelier to break out early in the NFL. This is all, not to mention our preference for younger players in the dynasty. Thus, the early declares get the draft capital in both NFL and fantasy settings.

#2 – Most of these WRs and RBs will get drafted.

These guys are still college all-star-level talents, and even though they’re older and thus less desirable than their early breakout/early declare counterparts, they got invited to the Senior Bowl for a reason.

#3 – The NFL wants more data points on these players.

The NFL Combine will primarily focus on their “measurable” athleticism. Still, the Senior Bowl is the last opportunity for these players to showcase their on-field skills in practice and game settings against high-level competition.

#4 – These players have something to prove.

Maybe they went to a small school and didn’t compete against elite programs. Or they were stuck in a bad situation or behind a star player. Maybe they transferred and had a late breakout. Perhaps a WR needs to prove they can separate quickly against man coverage, or an RB needs to demonstrate his pass-blocking and pass-catching chops. These practices and this game give them a chance to prove to NFL scouts that they can do something to increase their draft stock.

Some players can prove what they need to in one or two practices. Last year, Tank Dell and Puka Nacua, among many others, called it a week after a day or two of practice sessions. They got in, answered the questions they came there to answer in practice and drills, and got out. There is no need to risk injury; see you at the combine. So…

#5 – Make note of players who leave early.

These are the guys who proved what they needed to. They and their agents will determine they’ve raised enough stock to skip the remaining practices and the game. 

#6 – The practice sessions are more important for some players than the game.

We will be scouring the coverage of the practices and making note of who’s showing out and who’s leaving early.

#7 – Starting this year, underclassmen who have declared for the NFL Draft can participate. 

This is an important change that will shift our outlooks moving forward. For this 2024 class, of these two position groups, two underclassmen RBs are participating (Jaylen Wright and Rasheen Ali). We’ll be paying close attention and considering how their evaluations differ from the rest of the group. 

Considering those points, let’s look at the draft data to set expectations. Below are the complete lists of WRs and RBs who accepted invites to the Senior Bowl from 2021 – 2023:

Wide Receivers

Running Backs

How Can We Apply This Data to Fantasy?

Since 2021, among a group of 76 WRs and RBs, the Senior Bowl has produced three selections in the first round of the NFL Draft. Those players were Devonta Smith (1.10), Kadarius Toney (1.20), and Najee Harris (1.24). Four players had first-round ADPs in our rookie drafts (according to MFL). Going back to point #1 above, most of these guys will not be first-round selections. 

It follows that the data points we’re gathering from the Senior Bowl will begin assisting us in the second rounds of our rookie drafts and beyond.

That may not excite you, but that is where the edge lies. We get what falls to us in the first round without aggressive trading. Our league-mates are more likely to follow ADP early, and in general, they’re not going out on a limb from consensus rankings. The divergences happen later in the draft, and that is where these Senior Bowl participants will be available to us.

In other words, the data points we get from the Senior Bowl will help you make decisions at the points in your draft where there is less consensus.

This may seem obvious, but if we pay attention, we may get information we can act on.

Knowing Tank Dell was talking trash to any DB that would dare matchup with him, that he was un-guardable, and that he left after two days of practice can lead you to draft him over Cedric Tillman in Round 3.

Knowing Tyjae Spears can run ankle-breaking routes and catch out of the backfield can quell concerns over the absence of an ACL.

These data points can lead you to the right decisions when you’re on the clock.

Looking Ahead

We will track these data points as the Senior Bowl practices unfold. Today’s takeaway is that they can matter and help you get an edge.

Another thing to note on the RBs: Running backs often peak while playing on their rookie contracts. That’s especially true of the non-early declares, aka seniors. The window for NFL success is a year shorter. Thus, we must decide to fish or cut bait on these guys sooner.

I will dive into some predictive indicators later this offseason, but you can probably draw some conclusions from the list above. Going back to the 2021 class, out of the 11 Senior Bowl participants, I would argue only 4 of those players are still relevant (Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Herbert, and Michael Carter). If you go to the ’22 class, again, we’re down to 4 we still care about for fantasy (Rachaad White, Jerome Ford, Brian Robinson, and Dameon Pierce). Except for Jerome Ford, who spent his rookie year behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the other 7 made a good amount of noise as rookies.

Looking ahead to the 2023 class, it’s probably not too early to start divesting your shares of the running backs who came into the NFL older and did not flash in year one. More on that to come this offseason, but all eyes are on this senior class this week. Check back in later this week for my consolidated notes.

The UNveiled: AP Devy Strategy

Ah, late January. What a time in the fantasy space. All the counting is done, the stats are tallied, and the trophies and winnings are meted out. The 2024 rookie class has all declared. The NFL Playoffs are in full swing, and the redraft casuals have slunk into the background like Homer Simpson into the bush.

If you listen closely, however, you can hear a faint skittering. Imagine an ASMR of roaches running around on your kitchen floor. That’s the sound. That faint skittering is the clamor of fantasy football degenerates.

Degenerates like me – writing this.

Degenerates like you – reading this.

The fantasy season never stops in Devy; it changes its leaves like the maples in Ann Arbor. We’re here together because the grind never stops. I don’t stop writing. You don’t stop reading. You’re looking for that edge. That singular nugget that will set you apart in your leagues. I’m here to give it to you. I will do the work so you won’t have to.

Let’s get a jump start on some 2024 Devy targets before your league mates. Most eyes are on Dynasty rookie mocks and rankings. Those are for 2024. In Devy, we’re looking at 2025 or 2026. They’re playing checkers. We’re playing 5-D chess. They’re zigging. We’re zagging. We’re uncovering the new projected starters and class risers that will bring value in Devy startup drafts and are good trade targets in established leagues.

In startups, we want to focus on later picks. We want to uncover the gems from smaller or less hyped schools.

In established leagues, we want to identify guys with a good likelihood of NFL production that you can acquire in exchange for your high-production points-getters who helped you on the campus side but likely won’t transition to the NFL side.

This is the edge.

Irresponsibily Early Top 10 Devy League Targets for 2024

1. Rocco Becht – QB – Iowa State – 2023 Starter

Rocco, son of former NFL TE Anthony Becht, is entering his Redshirt (RS) Sophomore season for the Cyclones in 2024. He’s coming off a season that saw expected highs and lows for a Freshman starter. Against Oklahoma, Becht finished with a 45.5% comp on 33 passes and two interceptions. That isn’t good. The 2023 Liberty Bowl was a different story. That game was Becht’s coming out party. He threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns, following another three-TD performance in the last game of the regular season. Becht isn’t on a lot of radars. He didn’t register a Fantrax ADP in 2023, which will change. Becht is a “get in on the ground floor” prospect. Early production, a (roughly)3:1 TD/INT rate as a Freshman, and NFL bloodlines.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your QB4 in startups; Target as a waiver wire pickup or trade throw-in.

2. Taylen Green – QB – Arkansas – 2023 Starter

Green was the dual-threat starter at Boise State in 2023 after showcasing his skills in the conference championship game, throwing for two TDs and rushing for two. He finished the season 5th in QB YPC among QBs with 75 or more carries. Green announced he was transferring to Arkansas. The departure of KJ Jefferson in Fayetteville left an opening for a QB of that style with a system already in place. At 6’6″, Green is a tall QB and a long strider in the run game. He’ll likely play at U of A in 2024 and 2025, giving him time to add more bulk and showcase his talents at an SEC school.

PATH FORWARD

Draft in Round 12 or later in startups; Target in trades.

3. Alex Orji – QB – Michigan – 2024 QB Competition

Orji isn’t a “dual-threat” QB. He is a triple-threat QB/KR. You read that right. Kick returner. Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh thinks Orji could be a great one. “Alex Orji has got a chance to maybe be one of the greatest kick returners of all time.” It’s not often a QB returns kicks, but here we are. Orji was used sparingly during the Wolverines’ National Title run and will enter Spring Ball in a competition at the QB position. Acquiring him in Devy is a wager on his athleticism. He may stick at Quarterback. He may become a TE. Nobody is sure right now, but I’m banking on the athleticism of a Michigan QB recruit who weighs 235+ and is faster and more elusive than the other guys on the field.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your QB5 in startups; Target as a waiver wire pickup or trade throw-in.

4. CJ Donaldson – RB – West Virginia – 2023 Starter

Donaldson is what some people would call a “bruiser.” He is listed at 238 lbs. running a 40-yard dash somewhere in the 4.4s; he’s a load to bring down. This is not a satellite back. With only nine receptions as a true Sophomore, Donaldson’s future lies between the tackles and picking up the tough yards. He has the physical profile and early production that screams “Top 12 Dynasty finish.” A significant indicator of this is his TD production that matched more highly touted running backs such as TreVeon Henderson and Bucky Irving and more than 2024 rookies Jonathan Brooks, MarShawn Lloyd, and Frank Gore Jr. The 2024 season should be Donaldson’s statement to the NFL that he’s a great one.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your RB2 in startups; Target in trades.

5. Trey Holly – RB – LSU – 2024 RB Committee

Did you know that 10,523 yards is the Louisiana state high school rushing record? I bet you didn’t, and now you do. Holly did that. He is one of the most coveted running backs in state history, and his role for the Bayou Bengals will be established in 2024. Holly is a smaller running back. Please think of the stature of De’Von Achane or Deuce Vaughn, and he has the 4.3 40-yard dash time to go with it. Holly and his 225 lb. backfield mate, Kaleb Jackson, will look to create a Thunder and Lightning tandem in Baton Rouge and lead the program back to Championship contention. This Spring Ball season will tell us more where he fits.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your RB6 in startups; Target as a waiver wire pickup or trade throw-in.

6. Jordan Louie – RB – North Carolina – 2024 Backup

Jordan Louie is a few years away. Sharing a backfield with a bucketload of NFL prospects, including the presumptive 2025 #1 Omarion Hampton, won’t be easy. A true Freshman in 2023, Louie could elect to redshirt to give himself time to establish a role. He could enter the transfer portal at some point, as well. Only time will tell, but with a good size and speed profile, Louie projects as an all-around bell-cow that will make waves when he decides to enter the NFL Draft between 2026 and 2028.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your last RB in startups; Target as a waiver wire pickup.

7. Kojo Antwi – WR – Ohio State

It may be redundant to list the Ohio State wide receivers that have impacted fantasy since WR coach Brian Hartline ascended to WR Guru, but I’m gonna. Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Chris Olave. That’s a lot. Wait! I wasn’t done. Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Terry McLaurin, and Parris Campbell.

Apart from Egbuka returning to school, the next crop of 6-8 studs that will emerge is to be determined. The history of success sustained by the Buckeyes program means that it’s more likely than not that taking a chance on receivers recruited to the program will pay off. Enter Antwi. He stands 6′, 200 lbs., fast, explosive, “a playmaker”. It seems to fit the profile. While he didn’t break out during his second year, he has stuck with Hartline’s program and impressed his coach. Antwi is worth the flyer as a later-round addition and will be easy to move on from if he doesn’t break out in 2024.

PATH FORWARD

Draft late in startups; Target as a waiver add.

8. Monaray Baldwin – WR – Baylor

Tyreek Hill vibes. Baldwin exudes Tyreek Hill vibes. He can run 23 MPH. Monaray bench presses 405, squats 550, and power cleans 300. He’s also a team leader, jumping on Baylor teammates for not putting in enough effort. Baldwin’s production may not get him to the league, but his freakish athleticism and competitiveness should. Entering his Senior year in 2024, he seems to have found his niche in the Bears’ offense. Finishing with similar fantasy points scored, yards (565 and 623), TDs, yards per catch, and yards per game two seasons in a row alludes to his LACK of value in campus leagues, but things break right for him; he could become a star for cheap. Remember, Tyreek was a JUCO recruit and a 5th rounder out of West Alabama, who had 281 yards receiving as a Junior returner/gadget player at Oklahoma State.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your WR7 in startups; Target as a waiver add or trade throw-in.

9. Noah Rogers – WR – North Carolina State

You might recall my effusive praise of Ohio State WR recruits when discussing Kojo Antwi. Well, for the sake of brevity, I won’t repeat it. Go back and re-read if you forgot, I’ll wait. OK, now that you’re back, apply that to Noah Rogers. But wait! You might be saying out loud now. The header says “North Carolina State.” Well, it does. That’s because, for whatever reason(s), Rogers decided to enter the transfer portal and take his talents to Raleigh. Rogers was a Top 50 WR recruit nationally, so the talent is there. He should be able to thrive in a less loaded program, and with no statistics after two seasons at OSU, there won’t be a market for him. Take advantage now.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as late as Antwi in startups; Target as a waiver add.

10. Amari NiBlack – TE – Texas

Uh oh – here comes another juke! The header says, “Texas,” but the uniform in the picture is from Alabama. We have another portal transfer! If I were NiBlack, I would have left, too. The Alabama offense isn’t geared toward tight-end production. Texas, however, is a more TE-friendly environment. Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas’ TE1 in 2023, had 682 receiving yards on 45 catches. That was 3rd behind Brock Bowers and Dallin Holker. By contrast, NiBlack had 20 catches for 327 yards. That’s less than half the production. But NiBlack had a higher yard per catch than Sanders, Bowers, and Hooker. Double the opportunities by moving to a new program. NiBlack is a Top 5 TE, and you’ll be the first to see it coming. Well, the second.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your TE2 in startups; Target in trades.

Caveats

I have a couple of caveats to finish this up. First, I don’t like writing about situations I don’t mirror. I put my money where my mouth is, so these are all players I own or will trade for or pick up. The second is that these situations are fluid. Spring practices may change some things, so follow me here and on Twitter and YouTube as I keep us up to date on things like that. I need to know, too.

Finally, I suggest making trades, but you’ll want to know who you should trade away. That’s next time. See you then.

2024 NFL Draft QB’s First Look: Player Ranks 1-5 (Post CFP)

Sean Thomas 2024 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings (1-5)

1. Jayden Daniels – LSU

Jayden Daniels stands listed at a LONG 6 ‘4”, 210 pounds. Having started his career at Arizona State under Herm Edwards, Jayden looked to be oozing with talent from the jump. Flanked by San Franciso Wide Receiver Brandon Aiyuk, Jayden started his first career game in 2019 as a true freshman. He has been around the block a few times, being a starter ever since that day. Upon transferring to LSU for the 2022 season, he scored solid stats, boasting a 17-3 touchdown to interception ratio. The 2023 season is where shit got real. Jayden put up a 40-3 TD to Interception ratio, passing for just four thousand yards.

On top of the impressive leap in passing, he ran for 1100 yards and led his Tigers to a 9-3 record. Jayden is blessed with the tools that make your jaw hit the floor, bringing excitement again to football. The arm possessed by Daniels, paired with his rushing ability, is something you seldom see in an NFL draft prospect. Aside from these qualities, Jayden is a humble young man who stood on the stage a few weeks ago and accepted the Heisman trophy. What jumps off the tape to me when watching Jayden is his calm demeanor in the pocket.

Quite often, you see him doing something I call “Burrowing.” Burrowing is when the QB can make the rush miss while keeping both hands on the ball for ball security. In addition, he carefully keeps both eyes downfield to locate his target. He has a bazooka of an arm that is hand-crafted with gold and silk. He puts gas on the ball and can place it in the receiver’s hip pocket from 40 yards out.

If the U.S. Army were to create a drone that could drop moonshot footballs into receivers from 30,000 feet, they would have to paint a purple and yellow “5” on the side of it. Flanking Daniels this season has been two talents that have flourished beyond expectations. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. have eaten fruit from the tree of success, Jayden Daniels. These elite tools, mixed with a professional young man at the podium and the face of a franchise, have landed him at the top of my rankings for the 2024 NFL QB Draft Class.

Ceiling Player Comp: Lamar Jackson
Ideal Landing Spot: New Orleans

2. Drake Maye – UNC

Drake comes from a long lineage of UNC bloodline. Drake’s father, Mark, suited up as Quarterback for the Tar Heels during the 1984-1987 seasons. His brother Luke is a campus legend, as he was a prized and valued member of the 2017 National Championship run. Not only did his brother Beau play for the Tar Heels, but his OTHER brother also played for Florida as part of their baseball team, which went on to win the national championship in 2017. Drake may have never won a national title but is considered the best athlete of the Maye family litter.

He plays with a level of calm poise you rarely see in a young man. Drake does not rely on flashy arm angles or elite athletic ability regarding his legs, but this kid can play football. That’s not to say he can’t make people miss or throw touchdowns left-handed, but that’s not what he falls back on when the going gets tough. He makes every throw on the field that professionals make. He has a level of athleticism that doesn’t jump off the page but keeps middle linebackers up at night due to his ability to pull it out any time and place; this makes your read on RPO even more difficult.

Drake has started the last two seasons (2022 and 2023) by compiling about eight thousand yards and 62 touchdowns, which is not an exaggeration. Having spent so much time running RPO sets in college, he will be able to bring a traditional quarterback style and an ever-changing NFL offense to a new school look. He gives me old-soul vibes, and he will have no problem winning over any locker room. During his time at UNC, he had solid talent around him, but only some people would explode off the page. Most notably, his wide receiver from the 2022 season, Josh Downs. That gives me confidence, knowing he can go into a situation without the best weapons and the sturdiest coaching staff and STILL turn water into wine.

What matters to me most about Maye is his ability to get everybody involved. This can also be a sign of no true alpha pass catcher, but this makes life hard for defensive coordinators to take away what he wants to do honestly. The top 3 receivers for UNC this past season all had roughly the same number of yards, and he’s not afraid to utilize the tight end, with Bryson Nesbit reeling in about 600 yards and five touchdowns.

I look forward to Drake taking a page out of his brother’s playbook at the next level and acting as a floor general, bringing out the best in all those around him.

Ceiling Player Comp: Dak Prescott
Ideal Landing Spot: New England

3. Caleb Williams – USC

Caleb. Williams. Maybe I’m wrong putting him this far down the list, although 3rd out of however many total prospects is nothing to sneeze about. Caleb began his career at the University of Oklahoma under Lincoln Riley. During his initial time on campus, he spent his days backing up former University of South Carolina Quarterback Spencer Rattler. Upon winning the job at Oklahoma, he went on to have a stellar year, which translated to him following his head coach to USC and becoming a Trojan for his final two years of college. Caleb went on to have a dazzling 2022 season where he displayed his absolute rocket ship of an arm and creativity, extending plays in the pocket. Williams went on to win the Heisman award in 2022, capping off a fantastic 11-3 season and being 8-1 in conference play.

The 2023 season seemed to be more of a kick in the pants than a victory lap for Caleb Williams in terms of overall success. For a regular run-of-the-mill prospect, a team built by Lincoln Riley was assembled on promises of F-150’s and cash. This was, for lack of a better word, a disappointment, not only for the team but for Caleb as well. I have Caleb down at #3 for this exact reason.

There is no denying this young man’s God-given talent to throw a football hard, but his numbers against Top-25 opponents versus other opponents are puzzling. Caleb did great at kicking the crap out of opponents like Nevada and boasted a 70% completion rating that averaged about 320 yards through the air. Against Top-25 teams, his numbers dropped to 51% completion rating and 172 average yards in the air. That is quite the cliff to be stepping off when it comes to playing against other guys who will play on Sunday. Sure, it’s nice to beat the hell out of guys who will be coaching high school football next year, but I need to see you succeed against the best to be crowned the messiah of football.

The issues don’t stop there. As many players do, Caleb wears his heart on his sleeve while on the field, but a claim came out off the field before this college season ended that made me take an even further step back on Caleb. It has come out of Caleb’s camp that he would like part ownership in whatever team decides to draft him. We have seen this in other sports, primarily soccer, only after “GOAT” or even “Very Good” status has already been achieved, not after losing to Utah, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, and probably Utah a second time.

Caleb Williams is still an absolute phenom of talent, yet I struggle to believe he can fit into any locker room like past 1.01 QBs. Guys like Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, and Joe Burrow could be placed into any locker room and win over everyone by the end of training camp. Caleb must land with a coach who finds ways to pluck the talent and stroke the ego in a formula that brings the team along with him. A perfect example of who I think could do this is a guy like Mike McDaniel, but unfortunately, there’s only one of him, and he’s not in Chicago.

After all this negativity, you must give him flowers for his positive attributes. Caleb is the best improviser in the class, and it’s not close. The NFL is rigid and challenging, but the great QBs find ways to make plays off-schedule to extend the play, drive, and season. Caleb is elite in turning his back to the play but keeping track of where everyone is, doing so with eyes in the back of his head, ripping a sidearm ball past the earhole of a linebacker and right into his receiver’s gut.

The kid can play ball. He’s undersized and built like Baker Mayfield, but that hasn’t hurt any aspect of his physical or mental game. When given the opportunity, he can efficiently navigate the pocket and has the legs to run for big yards. He’s not Lamar Jackson-like athletic, but he’s equally athletic as other quarterbacks in the league. On paper, he’s a mind-blowing candidate. I have my reservations. Could I be completely wrong? Absolutely. But I don’t think he is the guy I would want to be the face of my franchise for the next 10-15 years as opposed to the two previously listed candidates.

Ceiling Player Comp: Josh Allen
Ideal Landing Spot: Washington Commanders

4. Michael Penix – Washington

Michael Penix has been through one of the most adverse college stories we’ve seen in a long time. Having started his college career in 2018 as a true freshman at Indiana, Penix could only play three games before tearing his ACL and ending his season. Penix would remain at Indiana only to suffer the same fate in 2020 upon tearing his other ACL. Many believed we had seen the peak of Michael’s career as he had been cursed with debilitating injuries, and doubt began to cloud the future of the young superstar.

Michael transferred to Washington and started his career as a Husky in 2022, putting up dazzling numbers, including his current high of 4,641 yards. In 2023, Penix and the Huskies exploded and are currently set to play in the College Football Playoff, boasting a 13-0 record. Penix would be officially labeled as a left-handed pocket passer with an affinity for the deep ball. These past two seasons, he’s been paired with superstar Wide Receiver Rome Odunze, who has generated an electric chemistry with Penix, reminiscent of Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds since day one.

Penix is the least rushing dependent of any of the QBs above. He relies heavily on his pocket presence and arm talent. Not to say Penix can’t escape the pocket when needed, but the pocket is precisely where Michael thrives and is most confident. Penix can bring serious value to a team with his cerebral approach and ability to keep teams in two high safety sets.

I envision Michael as a career backup with nothing to turn your nose up at. Traditionally, Draft Classes have one to two guys pop at the QB position, and the others fizzle out unless it’s the class with Herbert, Burrow, and Tua in which everybody popped. Penix can land in an organization and provide solid depth on day one. He takes care of the ball, pushes it downfield, and can extend plays. I foresee him being in the NFL for a very long time. As he is left-handed, placing him in a system that isn’t already built around it could be challenging.

Being left-handed versus right-handed doesn’t sound like much of a problem, but many plays in the NFL are built around timing and the timing of every single move of the QB from the snap. Penix’s stock seemed to shoot through the roof upon battling Quinn Ewers and Texas as he dealt some seriously impressive dimes and led his team to the ultimate victory. Based on the volume of talented signal callers in this class, I imagine Penix will be taken late in the first round, potentially early second. If Penix were to be in the class of 2022, I would firmly place him as the #1 QB taken off the board. Regarding team fit for Penix, I would love to see him maybe take the reins in Minnesota, as it appears they are ready to move on from elder statesman Kirk Cousins. This landing spot would bode well because even if they lose Justin Jefferson in the offseason, he would still have Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson to lean on in year one, not to mention anybody else they may bring in.

Ceiling Player Comp: Kenny Pickett
Ideal Landing Spot: Minnesota Vikings

5. Bo Nix – Oregon

Like most of the class listed above, Bo is an elder statesman of college football. It is considered something NFL teams value since the longer you stay in school, the more reps you get, the more developed you become, and the more ready you are to learn an NFL offense efficiently and effectively. Bo followed in his father Patrick’s footsteps and started his college career at the University of Auburn.

As a true freshman against his eventual team, the Oregon Ducks, and current starting Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert, Bo was able to lead his Auburn Tigers to a comeback win and cement himself as the “Guy” on campus. That same season, he toppled Alabama in the Iron Bowl and cemented himself in Auburn History. Nix would spend the first three seasons of his collegiate career with the Tigers upon transferring westward to the University of Swag – Oregon University. Nix’s game appeared to mature along the way throughout his career. After some injuries in his final year at Auburn, Nix’s rushing averages went down, and his passing numbers went up. Having never surpassed 2500 yards at Auburn, in his last two seasons at Oregon, he put up an eye-popping 7,700 yards and 69 touchdowns while remaining a rushing threat.

Early in his college career, I believed him to be nothing but a Sam Ehlinger clone, which may still be what he ultimately ends up being. Yet the playstyle maturity arc, efficiency, size, and dual-threat ability keep me returning. Five QBs in this class going in the first round sounds asinine, but it’s a Quarterback league. I would project Nix to go somewhere in the mid-third round, or maybe sooner, but I’ve seen countless mock drafts of him going late first. There is a lot to like about Nix, but the issue with him is as follows: there is a lot to like but not much to love.

I don’t necessarily see any “elite” traits, so it’s hard to say that he will come in and make a crazy splash. I can state for sure that he does many good things and does them well. If Nix were to land in a system with an aging quarterback and some electric weapons around him, he could be an excellent NFL player. If I had to single one specific trait about Nix that I would like to highlight, I would probably lean into his ability to extend plays with his legs. Nix does an excellent job on tape of making plays outside the pocket, and in today’s NFL, that is something teams value deeply. The days of pocket statues are all but behind us, especially with the emergence of bigger and better athletes bolstering defensive lines. I would love to see the Jets potentially take Nix in the second or third round as they plan to move on from Zach Wilson. Keeping Aaron Rodgers in the driver’s seat but taking another shot at a QB would allow him to start from square one. This is easier and more desirable than making it work with an ex with whom you’ve had nine public break-ups.

Ceiling Player Comp: Baker Mayfield
Ideal Landing Spot: New York Jets

Injuries / Off-Season Dynasty Advice

There were numerous season-ending injuries in the 2023 NFL Season. Below is my official medical advice on what you should do with your dynasty players and why!

Nick Chubb

Injury

Left knee injury in September of 2023 (MCL / ACL repair). Nick injured the same knee and the same ligaments in 2015.

Analysis

It is scientifically proven that new MCL / ACL grafts are not as strong as the original tissue. Being that this is the second injury to the same ligaments, this is a cause for concern. Chubb will be 29 next season, so his dynasty value is probably at an all-time low.

Dynasty Advice

Keep and pray for a strong recovery. They may look to add depth to the position, with Nick Chubb returning from injury and Jerome Ford not being as efficient as one had hoped. Watch Trav Seel‘s thoughts in our Unraveled Series.

 

Cam Akers

Injury

Achilles tear in 2021 – Repeat tear to same Achilles in Nov of 2023.

Analysis

Notoriously, data is not favorable to RBs with Achilles tears. Since this is his second one on the same side, it is not good news for Akers. At this point, there will be little to no market for Akers in dynasties. I fear that the end may be near.

Dynasty Advice

Keep/hold and pray for a strong recovery. He may be dropped by the end of summer if he does not return with the Vikings. You are not getting anything unless a late 4th for him, so if you decide to move on, be prepared to get pennies on the dollar.

JK Dobbins

Injury

Multiple Knee injuries, including ACL / LCL, with complications. In Week 1 of 2023, he suffered an Achilles’ tear.

Analysis

Like Akers, we know that data supporting RB’s return from Achilles tears are not strong. With a knee injury history, the odds are stacked against JK. Unlike Akers, there may still be a market for Dobbins if he returns to Baltimore, given that that offense is conducive to rushing TDs. Given how elite this player was once, someone may be willing to take a chance.

Dynasty Advice

Sell, if possible, to someone wanting to take a chance. Cam Akers’s return might save some of his value, but you will definitely be moving him at a discount.

Anthony Richardson

Injury

He injured his AC Joint in Week 5 of the 2023 NFL Season and was placed on IR. He also missed time in his rookie season with concussions as well.

Analysis

2023 was a season of highs and lows for the fourth overall pick. While only playing in 4 total games, he delivered 2 QB1-worthy performances and averaged a whopping 0.4 fantasy points per snap. He is already labeled as “injury-prone,” which should be music to our ears. I am confident he will change his playstyle, and with how protective the league is of QBs, I don’t know that we can count him out due to injury concerns, as some people already have. If he plays north of 14 games, it would not surprise me if he finishes as a top 5 fantasy quarterback in 2024.

Dynasty Advice

BUY in all formats. He is an elite prospect who showed he can produce in a small sample size.

Mike Williams

Injury

Chargers standout WR Mike Williams suffered a torn ACL in October of the 2023 season.

Analysis

While the jump ball specialist is expected to be ready for training camp, I have concerns about the former first-round pick. We know that Mike Williams is no stranger to injury, as nagging injuries throughout his career have hampered him. Even with this injury history, Williams has provided decent numbers from a fantasy standpoint from 2020-2022. However, with pass catchers Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer on the roster, first-round WR Quentin Johnston in the 2023 NFL draft, and rumored to be selecting another pass-catching weapon in the first round of the 2024 draft, I fear there may be too many mouths to feed, and Williams may get lost in the shuffle.

Dynasty Advice

Sell if possible. There is a lot of change in LA, and Mike Williams might also be on the move. Coming off a severe injury and maybe learning a new team and offense, see if someone is willing to buy low.

Marcus Galie, DPT

UnMock Draft v1.0

As the NFL season enters the postseason, it’s that time of year for serious dynasty fantasy football players to start looking at the next incoming rookie class. Here at the Undroppables, we love talking rookies and dynasty strategies, and what better way than to start with a super early mock draft? Let us know how we did on our socials, and be on the lookout for more dynasty content this off-season.

Mock Draft Settings

Two rounds. 12 Team, Superflex TEP mock draft.

Drafters

KL_Fantasy (Picks 1.01, 1.05, 1.09, 2.01, 2.05, 2.09)
Jax Falcone (Picks 1.02, 1.06, 1.10, 2.02, 2.06, 2.10)
DaWiz_FFB (Picks 1.03, 1.07, 1.11, 2.03, 2.07, 2.11)
FFDF (Picks 1.04, 1.08, 1.12, 2.04, 2.08, 2.12)

Round 1

1.01 – Caleb Williams (QB – USC)


The 1.01 has been Caleb Williams for at least 12 months, as the young USC gunslinger has put together a highly prolific NCAA career and is widely considered a can’t-miss prospect. Williams won the Heisman trophy in 2022, but his strong performance wasn’t limited to just that season. Williams has a 93-14 TD-INT ratio, over 10,000 passing yards, and 27 rushing TDs over his three-year career under HC Lincoln Riley.

1.02 Marvin Harrison Jr (WR – OSU)


Marvin Harrison Jr is as close to a can’t-miss prospect as we see in the NFL. In Superflex, the value of a QB is sky-high, but the hit rate is far lower than what we see with wide receivers with MHJ’s profile. So, you’ll have to start thinking about Harrison as early as the 1.01. MHJ didn’t dominate as a Freshman, but he played with JSN, Olave, Egbuka, and Garrett Wilson. However, in 25 games over his sophomore and junior seasons, he put up 144 receptions, 2,474 yards, and 28 TDs. Think DeAndre Hopkins/AJ Green for comparables.

1.03 – Drake Maye (QB – UNC)

In any other class, Drake Maye is easily the QB1. At 6’4″, 230, Maye is a QB1 prototype. He followed his dynamite Sophomore season (37 TDs, 7 INTs, 4,293 YDS) with 3,608 YDS, 24 TDs & 9 INTs in his Junior year. Maye isn’t just a threat with his arm, though. He averaged 6.2 YPC across 121 RuATT throughout his college career. His ability to throw on the run and push the ball downfield will excite teams about his pro potential. On Deep Throws (20+ YDS), Maye averaged 17.1 YPA with a 13/4 TD/INT ratio, which is good for a 96.8 rating per PFF. His ability to move the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield should bode well for NFL success.

1.04 – Malik Nabers (WR – LSU)

The actual decisions start at 1.04 in Superflex dynasty rookie drafts, and the top three seem straightforward in whatever order you want. The pick comes down to Malik Nabers and Jayden Daniels; both are LSU prospects. If you have the deepest needs at QB, you can go with Jayden, but I am looking at pure talent at this pick. Malik would be the top WR prospect if not for MHJ; he is a safe draft pick for NFL Teams and your dynasty team.

1.05 – Rome Odunze (WR – Washington)

The Washington Huskies had a ton of success in 2023, making it to the national championship, and a ton of credit should go to their pass-catchers, especially jump-ball-extraordinaire Rome Odunze. Odunze made high-point, full-extension catches look routine all season and accounted for 1,640 yards and 13 TDs on 92 catches in his Redshirt Junior season. Odunze is also a fantastic route-runner and plays with physicality in the YAC game.

1.06 Jayden Daniels (QB – LSU)

Seeing a quarterback with this profile available at the 1.06 feels lucky. Jayden profiles much like Jalen Hurts/Lamar Jackson but with a much lighter frame. On the plus side, in 2023, Jayden did the following: Won the Heisman, Completed 72% of his passes, 50 Touchdowns (40 passing/10rushing), Ran for 1134 yards (8.4per carry!!), and also had 11.7 Yards per Attempt.  Wild.  On the downside, he transferred twice, is an old prospect (23 years old), and had four other college seasons that didn’t quite compare to 2023. In a superflex league, he is well worth a shot here at the 1.06 if he goes early 1st rd in the NFL.

1.07 – Brock Bowers (TE – Georgia)


Arguably the best TE prospect we have ever seen, Bowers is genuinely a “unicorn” at the TE position. While he may be undersized by typical NFL standards, he fits right in line with some of the more recent athletic TEs who have seen immediate success in the NFL. (LaPorta, McBride & yes, Kyle Pitts) He is a matchup nightmare for any linebacker, and if he lands in the right system in the NFL, he should have a chance to showcase his elite route running from Day 1. Can you imagine if Ben Johnson departs for LAC and Bowers lands there? LaPorta’s rookie records may be in jeopardy after only one season. He was the focal point of the Georgia offense the moment he arrived on campus, and he averaged 14.5/Rec for his college career as a TE, nonetheless! He’ll immediately insert himself into the Top 5 Dynasty TE discussion and, depending on the landing spot, could be even higher before he takes a snap. He’s a stud, no matter how you slice it.

1.08 Michael Penix Jr. (QB – Washington)

Penix showcased what he could do during the College Football Playoffs with a huge game against Texas. Finishing strong with 2022 and 2023 campaigns for his resume, the concern for most will be health and age (he will be 24 this coming May).  In a Superflex league, QBs are necessary for starting and depth; this is a good landing spot for someone drafted to start some NFL games immediately.

1.09 – Devontez Walker (WR – UNC)


While Walker at 1.09 may not be chalk, he’s a prime candidate for a massive combine and scouting period bump. Walker has an insane mix of size and athleticism reminiscent of elite receivers past, allowing him to beat cornerbacks in various ways. The Tar Heel WR boasts a select catch radius to win contested catch situations but also has a low 4.4s speed. Walker was GPS-clocked at over 23 mph multiple times in his collegiate career. If you’re more into stats, Walker has things going for him over there, too, as he accounted for 58/921/11 in an entire season with Kent State last year and 41/699/7 in 8 games for UNC this season.

1.10 TreVeyon Henderson Jonathon Brooks (RB – Texas)

I had taken TraVeon here, and when we were at the 2.04, TraVeon recommitted to Ohio St for another year.  So, I just replaced him with Jonathan Brooks.  I’m not sure I would take Brooks this early, but I would if he didn’t have the ACL injury. Jonathon Brooks played behind Roschon Johnson and Bijan Robinson in his first two seasons, but he was the unquestioned lead back this past year.  Brooks has been very productive on a per-play basis, going for 6.2 yards per carry and a whopping 12.0 yards per catch on 28 receptions (25 this past season). I’m seeing shades of Rachaad White with Jonathan Brooks, and that’s good. He also just turned 20 years old.

1.11 – Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – LSU)

While his college teammate, Malik Nabers, will receive much of the attention (rightfully so), Thomas Jr. is someone NFL teams and dynasty managers alike should be very excited about. For starters, Thomas Jr. is a big play waiting to happen. He averaged 17.2 Y/REC this past season vs Nabers’ 17.6. Thomas Jr. can win in the slot and downfield. That versatility should give him ample opportunity to succeed at the next level. His 6’4” frame should allow him also to be a weapon in the red zone (like what we’ve seen from Tee Higgins). He’s incredibly smooth for his size but also has an explosive element to his game. If he can continue to expand his route tree, he has a serious upside at the NFL level.

1.12 Bo Nix (QB – Oregon)


Bo had himself a spectacular year at Oregon. He broke the completion percentage record (77.45% on 470 attempts) and had 51 total touchdowns (45 passing and six rushing) on three interceptions.  Age is a concern again since Bo will be 24 at the draft, but his campaign shows Nix is ready for the NFL.  He will start right away for a team and give a championship team some needed depth for their dynasty team – or, more likely, a rebuilding team that acquired the pick from the championship team.

Round 2

2.01 – Michael Pratt (QB – Tulane)

The dynasty hivemind has yet to catch on to Michael Pratt, as many have the gunslinger outside their top 5. However, Pratt is my QB3 in the class, behind only Williams and Maye. Unlike other options in this class, Pratt proved it on the field early in his career and was a highly productive 4-year starter. Over his four seasons for the Green Wave, Pratt threw for 9,611 yards, 90 TDs, and 26 INTs on a 60.6% completion percentage. However, what is going to be highly enticing to pro scouts is Pratt’s raw athleticism, as he has a cannon for an arm and can and does regularly extend plays with his legs.

2.02 – Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE – Texas)

JT Sanders is big, fast, and productive. He is also very young.  Brock Bowers is the clear TE1 in this class, but Sanders may be the better value, as you can draft Sanders in the late 2nd/early 3rd in some rookie drafts.  Sanders put up 99 receptions, 1295 yards, and 7 TDs in his sophomore and junior seasons at Texas. You may have to be patient with Sanders, as TEs generally take a while to hit (McBride), and Sanders is young. The landing spot will also significantly determine if/when it’s best to push the button on Sanders in your rookie draft.

2.03 – Xavier Worthy (WR – Texas)

If there is one thing to associate with Xavier Worthy, it’s SPEED. Worthy will run one of the fastest 40’s at the upcoming NFL combine. While he has a thin frame (6’1” 172), Worthy is incredibly explosive and a YAC machine. His 571 YAC ranked 13th in the nation this past season. Worthy possesses true “blow off the top” speed and will immediately warrant Defensive Coordinators attention for that alone. NFL teams will covet his ability to stack defenders and then make guys miss once he has the ball in his hands. He looks smooth when you watch him, and his ability to line up at multiple positions should be highly enticing for any NFL team looking to add a big play-receiving threat in the upcoming draft.

2.04 – Trey Benson (RB – FSU)


This might be the first reach of the mock draft, but if I am a team looking to find the next explosive rookie RB, I immensely like Benson.  He has the most explosive upside, vision improvements, and pass-catching improvements between his 2022 and 2023 seasons. That means he can contribute immediately to an NFL team and your dynasty team. His size for how fast he moves is impressive, too, being 6’1″ and 223 lbs.

2.05 – Braelon Allen (RB – Wisconsin)

With TreVeyeon Henderson heading back to Ohio State to chase a championship, it’s a different Big Ten RB that tops my early running back ranks. Braelon Allen is 19 and has already established an astounding collegiate career. The Wisconsin RB is 6’2” and 238 lbs of pure muscle, which he often uses to take the souls of would-be tacklers. He accounted for over 1,200 yards on the ground in his first two seasons and wrapped up his Badger career with 984 yards in 2023. In addition, Allen has proved a little bit of something in the passing game, with 49 career catches and 28 coming in 2023.

2.06 – Troy Franklin (WR – Oregon)

Troy Franklin is one of my favorite prospects in the 2024 draft. His super slight frame would have been a concern for me in the past, but it seems that is no longer a disqualifier in today’s NFL.  If anything, it may be the way the league is trending. Smaller and faster (quicker). Well, Franklin IS fast.  Expect to see a sub 4.4 40-time, and with his super productive junior season in 2023, we may see him get drafted in round one of the NFL Draft.  I can envision Franklin being a late-first-round rookie pick in May in superflex leagues. Think Marquis Brown/Jordan Addison.

2.07 – Bucky Irving (RB – Oregon)

The NFL running back landscape is changing. Recently, we have seen the likes of James Cook, De’Von Achane, Kyren Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs take the league by storm. Bucky Irving is cut off that same “new age” NFL RB cloth. Standing at 5’10” and 195, Irving makes money with his versatility and ability to make defenders miss. Among RBs with <6.00 YPC, Irving’s 0.37 MTF/A ranked 5th in the nation. He was also graded as the most elusive draft-eligible RB per PFF. Irving displays a real suddenness in & out of his cuts. He reminds me a bit of Tyjae Spears in this regard. What I like about Irving is his receiving ability. If you’re going to fit the “new age” RB build, you need to be able to catch the ball, and Irving has proven he can do just that. He led all RBs in RECs this past season with 54. While he may fit into the traditional “scat back” mold, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him become a backend/solid RB2 in PPR formats, given his receiving prowess.

2.08 – Keon Coleman (WR – FSU)

There is still a home for big-body receivers in the NFL, and teams will still draft them and hope they work.  Keon stands at 6’4″ and 215 lbs and has shown his athleticism throughout his career. The route running can be sharpened, and with his flashes of brilliance, teams could hope to capitalize on all the untapped potential that Coleman has flashed. He is a Day 2 prospect and will be a good flier on teams to take a chance on him for your dynasty rosters.

2.09 – Ja’Lynn Polk (WR – Washington)

With Jalen McMillan oft-injured in 2023, Polk made the most of his opportunities and put together a 1,159-yard season with 10 TDs. The Texas Tech transfer is a lanky wideout who can play both inside and out and possesses a massive catch radius, above-average strength, and great bursts once he gets the ball in his hands. Polk’s hands are some of the best in the class, and I think he has a long career ahead of him, working the seams and the underneath game out of the slot position at the NFL level.

2.10 – Adonai Mitchell (WR – Texas)


You might think I’m a Texas fan or something, but the value here was too good to pass up.  I’m somewhat skeptical of Mitchell as a prospect, but getting a projected early round-2 NFL prospect here in the late 2nd of a rookie draft is a great value. I sense there will be other WR prospects I will end up liking better than Mitchell, but we’ll see.  I also considered taking RB’s Blake Corum or Audric Estime.  There will undoubtedly be value in the late 2nd/early 3rd of our rookie drafts here in 2024. Mitchell had an outstanding true freshman season with career stats: 99 Rec – 1405 Yards – 18 TDs. Terrace Marshall vibes.

2.11 – Ladd McConkey (WR – Georgia)

Ladd may be one of this class’s most “pro-ready” WRs. He doesn’t explode off the tape like some of his counterparts in this class; McConkey is incredibly smooth and versatile. McConkey is a polished route runner in his own right, which will make him productive once on the field. I’d describe McConkey as shifty more than explosive, but he finds a way to get open. Everyone is looking for the next Puka Nacua and newsflash. There isn’t a next Puka Nacua, but McConkey’s high football IQ and ability to find open spaces should prove extremely valuable at the next level. His 2.54 YPRR is suitable for 4th best of all draft-eligible WRs, and we have seen YPRR be a strong indicator of future success. With his production profile and ability to contribute early, McConkey is one of my favorite fliers at the end of the 2nd round.

2.12 – JJ McCarthy (QB – Michigan)

The best QB Michigan has ever seen, according to Jim Harbaugh.  Without a polarizing season capped off with a national title, many will be debating whether he should have stayed another year.  Teams will look to answer their QB questions, and although the stats are not great, there is plenty of film to highlight that JJ can make the big throws. This will be a topic all offseason, but an NFL team will take him in the first round, and draft capital can be king for dynasty leagues.  This is Superflex, right? What are we doing to let a starting QB fall this far?

Honorable Mentions

Malachi Corley (WR – Western Kentucky)
Jaylen Wright (RB – Tennessee)
Blake Corum (RB – Michigan)
Audric Estime (RB – Notre Dame)

Deep Sleepers

Blake Watson (RB – Memphis)
Kimani Vidal (RB – Troy)
Dallin Holker (TE – Colorado State)
Emani Bailey (RB – TCU)