While the Atlanta Falcons didn’t make massive changes to their offense, their acquisitions and departures should lead to significant fantasy football impacts. The Falcons made a splash move in free agency when they signed Todd Gurley to a one-year, $5.5 million deal after the Rams cut him. They also bolstered their wide receiver depth by signing Laquon Treadwell to a one-year, $910,000 deal. In the draft, the Falcons focused on their defense, with four of their six picks addressing that side of the ball, including Clemson cornerback A.J. Terrell in the first round. Additionally, The Falcons acquired Hayden Hurst from the Ravens after Austin Hooper left to the Browns in free agency. With these changes, it’s worth analyzing the fantasy impacts of their moves and how their players will perform going forward. Let’s examine those impacts in this Atlanta Falcons Offseason Breakdown.
Offense: An Overview
The offensive philosophy in Atlanta should not change drastically, as the head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback were all retained from last year. Atlanta led the league in pass attempts this past season by over three pass attempts per game (42.8). Naturally, they ranked bottom three in rush attempts, which makes sense given their lack of efficiency in this area. Atlanta ranked 26th in the league with an average of 3.8 yards per carry (YPC), with their lead back, Devonta Freeman, recording 3.6 YPC. Additionally, their defense finished 29th in sacks and 22nd in points allowed. With their troubles on defense as well as running the ball, it was necessary to be a league leader in pass attempts in order to remain in games. While their run game should improve with the addition of Todd Gurley, he carries substantial injury risk and their backups remain the same as they were last year. The team should remain pass heavy, indicating that pass catchers will be valuable in this offense.
Quarterback
Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is the forgotten staple of fantasy football. Each year comes and goes, and Matt Ryan is never talked about as someone with high upside. Ryan has been a top-12 QB in fantasy points seven times in his career in 11 attempts, with the last four years yielding the finishes of QB11, QB2, QB15, and QB2. Although the addition of Todd Gurley and a defensive oriented draft might decrease the total number of pass attempts in this offense, Atlanta will likely still remain among the league leaders in this area. With high volume and elite weapons like Julio Jones, Ryan should be valued as a mid-tier QB1 in redraft leagues, close to his ADP as the QB8. In dynasty, Ryan is more of a low-end/fringe QB1.
Running Back
Todd Gurley
What in the world does one do with Todd Gurley? Just two years ago, he was the undisputed #1 running back in football…. This offseason, the Rams cut him from their team. Todd Gurley’s fall from grace was primarily predicated on his knee injury. Our medical expert, Adam Hutchison, doesn’t have optimism that Gurley will remain healthy this season and beyond. Adam believes that Gurley’s plethora of knee issues and the symptoms they cause are the result of early-onset osteoarthritis (OA). Studies have shown that people who suffer an ACL tear are more likely to develop OA ten years after their original injury. An ACL tear results in a physiological alteration of the knee itself, impairing neuromuscular patterns of muscle groups around the knee joint, specifically the quadriceps. This is also the muscle that Gurley strained in 2019. Unfortunately, there is no cure for osteoarthritis, and although it can be managed, it will never vanish completely.
That said, Gurley is still in a strong offense with an offensive line that added PFF’s highest graded center in college football last year with Matt Hennessy out of Temple. Offensive line woes plagued the Rams in 2019, with PFF grading their unit as the 2nd worst in the league, dropping from 6th best in 2018. This was evident in Gurley’s decline in production, as he was tackled behind the line of scrimmage 21% of the time in 2019, a 6% increase from the prior season.
With Chris Lindstrom, a former first round selection, hoping to be healthy this season after playing in only 5 games in 2019, their offensive line play seems poised to take a step forward, benefiting their run game. Gurley has been heavily used in the red zone as well, ranking top three in red zone attempts in each of the past three years, and also ranking number one in rushing attempts within the 10 and 5-yard lines in 2017 and 2018. Although this dropped off slightly in 2019, he still ranked within the top 5 in attempts within the 10-yard line and top 10 in attempts within the 5-yard line. Gurley’s receiving work should rebound from last year’s abysmal average of around 2 receptions per game as well, and these factors should make him a strong RB2 in redraft leagues. Due to his injury risk, age, and lack of long-term contract stability, he should be significantly downgraded in dynasty rankings.
Todd Gurley Week 5 #NFL
🔥Snap %: 93📈
🔥Rushing: 15/51/2
🤫Receiving: 5 targets- 3/6/0Recent usage is easing the minds of #FantasyFootball owners everywhere.
@FantasyFreaks_
pic.twitter.com/GEyjv4PKlN— D Brown (@DBrownFF88) October 7, 2019
The Other Running Backs
As of now, the Falcons depth chart lists Ito Smith as the backup to Gurley with Brian Hill and Qadree Ollison behind them. Although Ito is the current backup to the injury prone Gurley, he still doesn’t rank as a top handcuff due to his lack of efficiency. There is a chance that Ito will be surpassed by others on the depth chart, however their backups as a whole have either shown poor efficiency or only have a small sample size to extrapolate from. With that said, these backs should be on the dynasty radar, with Ito Smith deserving to be owned in dynasty leagues for now, given Gurley’s injury concerns. For redraft, Ito Smith is an interesting deep-league addition, especially for the Todd Gurley owner.
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones
Julio Jones is simply one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. He has been selected to 6 straight pro bowls, finishing first-team All-Pro twice in his career. Julio hasn’t shown a decline in production despite his age (31), hauling in 99 receptions for 1,394 yards last season. He finished as the overall WR3 in PPR leagues in both total points and points per game in 15 games played. Although Julio has a reputation of frequently being injured, his injuries don’t tend to keep him out of games, evidenced by him playing in 14 games or more every season for the past six years. Julio is a top-tier WR1 in redraft leagues, and a low end WR1 in dynasty due to his age.
Calvin Ridley
Calvin Ridley is a popular breakout candidate in the fantasy football community. I believe that Ridley will succeed this year and live up to some of the hype, however not surpassing Julio in their wide receiver corps quite yet. Ridley has been an efficient red zone threat so far in his career, demanding the respect of defenses. He is second in the league in cushion distance, which is the distance afforded to him by his assigned defender, as Ridley can break off long plays at a moment’s notice. Matt Ryan was substantially better when targeting Ridley compared to other receivers, as his season-long QB rating of 92.1 rose to 113.4 when targeting him, a 21.3 point difference. Ridley finished last year as the WR27 in PPR leagues in 13 games played and was the WR19 in points per game. I expect Ridley to take another step forward in his third season, becoming an early-mid tier WR2 for redraft leagues and a solid WR2 in dynasty.
Calvin Ridley gets wide open and makes a great catch to bring the #Falcons with in a one score game. 40-32 #Texans #NFL #FantasyFootball @FantasyFreaks_ pic.twitter.com/NnEhLb0Xla
— D Brown (@DBrownFF88) October 6, 2019
Ridley’s footwork and field awareness are exceptional, allowing him to remain in bounds on this catch against the Texans.
Russell Gage
Russell Gage is one of the most underrated wide receivers in fantasy football. This is not to say, by any means, that he will be a top-tier asset. He should be valued as a solid depth piece that is worth far more than his ADP of WR107 in PPR leagues though. This is after receivers such as Paul Richardson (unsigned), Jehu Chesson (Jets), Devin Smith (Dallas), Trent Sherfield (Arizona), and more. Last year, after Mohammad Sanu was traded in Week 8, Gage was on pace for 80 receptions over 16 games, which would have finished as the WR15 in receptions (for perspective, Julio had 99 catches). Additionally, his 16-game pace after the trade would have yielded 164.4 PPR points, finishing as the WR39 last year. This would rank ahead Diontae Johnson, who is receiving considerable hype as a sleeper this offseason. Furthermore, Gage only had one touchdown in that stretch, which makes him a candidate for positive regression. Gage is still the #3 wide receiver in Atlanta’s offense after they chose not to draft a wide receiver to fill that role, thus giving him opportunity to succeed. Gage should be valued as someone who can fill in as a flex level play in redraft leagues, with a downgrade in dynasty leagues due to long-term uncertainty.
Laquon Treadwell
Laquon Treadwell is an example of wide receiver evaluation gone wrong. A former first round pick, Treadwell has not lived up to any semblance of former expectations. He signed with the Falcons for a one-year deal in the offseason, and will likely compete for a depth spot on the roster behind Jones and Ridley. Treadwell is irrelevant in both redraft and dynasty leagues.
Tight End
Hayden Hurst
Hayden Hurst is the starting tight end in Atlanta after the departure of Austin Hooper in free agency. Hurst is a former first round pick by the Ravens, but he was outshone by their third round pick from the same year, Mark Andrews. Although Hurst has underperformed relative to expectations in his first two seasons in the league, Hurst’s draft capital and price to acquire him in trade (Atlanta paid a 2nd and 5th for Hurst and a 4th) imply that he will play an important role in this offense. With 97 vacated targets from Hooper across 13 games, Hurst has the opportunity to succeed at a high level for fantasy. I project him to have fewer targets and receptions than Hooper last year by a sizable amount, especially given that COVID-19 will effectively shorten the offseason. Still, he should slightly outperform his TE13 ADP, finishing as a low-end TE1 in redraft leagues this season. In dynasty leagues, Hurst should be treated as a high-end TE2.
Final Thoughts
In an offseason shortened by COVID-19, the Falcons didn’t make extensive changes to their offensive skill position players or coaching staff this year, which should bode well for the team fantasy-wise next season. The addition of Todd Gurley to the offense should bolster their weak run game, overall making the offense more proficient. Led by stars such as Julio Jones and Matt Ryan, the Falcons offense should be a strong one for fantasy purposes next year, with startable options at each offensive skill position.
