Buffalo Bills 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Kayne Rob
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Buffalo Bills 2020 Offseason Breakdown

From AFC East afterthought to division favorites, it has been a wild ride for the Buffalo Bills from 2019 offseason to 2020 offseason. The Bills have made some big moves to continue their competitive push, but how will it all shake out for fantasy football managers in 2020 and beyond?

Offense: An Overview

The Bills have made some big moves on the offensive side of the ball this offseason. The new additions brought in include Daryl Williams, Zack Moss, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah Hodgins, and of course Stefon Diggs. The team also extended head coach Sean McDermott to a multi-year deal, ensuring his vision for this team continues for the foreseeable future.

Quarterback

Josh Allen

Allen stepped up big for his team in 2020, leading them to the playoffs in his second year. He also finished as the QB7 in fantasy, with a large portion of production coming from his legs. Allen put up 510 rushing yards and 9 TDs. This accounted for 105 of his 290 fantasy points in 2019. This aspect of his game keeps him in the conversation for QB1 status. In fact, he put up 8 QB1 weeks in 2019, which was among the league leaders.

QB1 weeks over the course of 2019

The real question becomes, will the additions of Zack Moss and Stefon Diggs cause the Bills to ask their QB to take fewer risks on the ground?

The additions to the receiver group will bring those rushing totals down a bit, but the rushing possibility leaves him as a QB9-QB12 option with upside for me. The biggest step Allen must take is improving upon his horrid completion percentage. In 2018, among starting QBs, he finished as the 33rd QB in completion % (behind Josh Rosen), and in 2019 he finished 32nd. This must improve for him to be taken seriously as an NFL QB long term. Continuing to perform poorly there could lead to a shorter career.

This is something to keep in mind when valuing Allen in dynasty. If you believe he will overcome this hurdle, then now would be the time to invest as his price will only go higher. Yet if you have your doubts, as I do, then I am avoiding him for safer options or trading him to get peak value. In redraft, Allen is a fair value option, currently going around Rodgers, Ryan, and Brees in the 7th/8th round. Again, a bit high for my liking, but the rushing upside may make the value that much sweeter.

Jake Fromm

Honestly, the 2020 5th round pick is likely to be nothing more than a perennial backup at best in the NFL. His glory days are likely left back in Athens, Georgia where he was able to fend off 5-star recruit after 5-star recruit. For fantasy leagues, the only thing Fromm is good for is a taxi spot at best within the dynasty format. Even then, it’s solely in case of injury or opportunity elsewhere somewhere down the line.

Running Back

Devin Singletary

There is currently a divide between Moss believers and Singletary truthers, yet I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Singletary burst on to the scene in 2019, putting up two top-24 weeks with extremely limited touches. Then an injury hampered the prospect for a few weeks. Upon his return though, he took over snaps in the Bills backfield from Week 8 on. Over the course of the season, Singletary finished in the top 24 on 7 occasions within his 12 games played.

A player like that isn’t going to disappear even if Moss ends up living up to his own potential. Singletary’s consistency in the pass game will keep him relevant on the Bills, even if Moss eventually wins the job. I think this backfield will be a solid option to have as depth pieces, but neither should be your RB1 or RB2 within your roster. In redraft, Singletary offers up great RB3/Flex upside early and could be a solid trade chip after a big week or two. In dynasty I believe Singletary remains a solid flex play on both rebuilding and contending teams. He may be a good player to inquire about as his value is hard to place right now.

Zack Moss

With one of the easiest running back schedules of 2020, I think it’s well within the possibilities that the Bills produce two top 30 RBs. The 2020 3rd round pick from Utah could have a great opportunity to serve in the Frank Gore role we saw last year. This would get him on the field for at least 30% of snaps early. I also believe Moss being a heavier/stronger back will allow him to see more of the red zone work and maintain fantasy relevancy even with limited touches.

Moss is a slippery back, as is his counterpart, Singletary. The two will likely serve as a one-two punch in Buffalo, and I do not anticipate a complete takeover for either side. Both Moss and Singletary can serve as a threat through the air or the ground as well. Moss being a dual threat saw great efficiency across the board when given the ball.

As stated with Singletary, I believe Moss holds great value as an RB3/Flex option in both redraft and dynasty. If either running back is able to win the job outright, or an injury happens, then the healthy back could be a league-winner for many.

T.J. Yeldon

Yeldon isn’t likely to see much if any time on the field barring injury. There’s no value in redraft and I think it’s safe to leave him off of your dynasty rosters as well. Even in the case of an injury, I think a majority of touches will remain solely with the healthy back of the two above.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs

Diggs finally has his opportunity to be the undisputed #1 option on his team. This is a position I truly believe he can thrive in, but ADP is typically the reasoning he hasn’t landed on many of my teams. Diggs seems to getting picked around 4.09 with other options around him being Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, and D.J. Chark. I believe the upside for all of those players is greater than what you will get from Diggs.

Diggs is one of, if not the best route runner in the NFL. His separation and big play ability is hard to top, but he isn’t always seen as a red zone weapon. Diggs is similar to Tyreek Hill, with high boom weeks but also low floor weeks. A lot of Diggs’ top-end scoring ability will depend on the accuracy of his QB. If Allen improves in his accuracy, then Diggs could get back into the top 15 conversation once more.

At his current ADP, I’ve been passing on Diggs in many drafts. In dynasty formats, I wouldn’t be trading him away; his value feels like it’s at a middle-ground at this time. If the board falls right in redraft I won’t hesitate grabbing him, but he needs to drop into the 5th round with players such as Lockett, Woods, and similar pass catchers.

John Brown

Brown is one of the better route runners in the NFL, but not quite as good as his new teammate. That being said, John Brown is heavily undervalued as a veteran wide receiver. Brown finished as the WR20 in PPR leagues in 2019. Though some will fear Diggs may eat into his share, one could argue Diggs’ presence frees Brown up for more opportunities. Brown was taking the WR1 focus in Buffalo and still producing. Now he’ll be getting the #2 treatment, allowing for more separation and possibly more big plays as well.

If I’m contending in a dynasty league, I am investing in Brown on the cheap (you can probably get him for a 3rd round rookie pick). In redraft, Brown is a late-round guy that could win you some weeks in PPR formats. Don’t sleep on this veteran wide receiver.

Cole Beasley

Beasley is a better NFL player than he is a fantasy option. In 2019, he was able to finish around the WR34 which was a solid flex option at times. Yet in 2020, the only format in which Beasley may be a useful player to roster would be deeper redraft leagues that have full PPR scoring. Even then, with the addition of Stefon Diggs and the strengths of John Brown, I find it hard for Beasley to continue to be a flex option. I would avoid him being on your roster in any format, as he’s the most likely to be hurt by new additions. That production gets even worse if younger players like Dawson Knox and Duke Williams find more snaps.

Gabriel Davis

The 4th round draft selection out of UCF is solely a long term dynasty investment, preferably in a taxi spot. He will hold no value in redraft formats. The best he could likely muster up is the #4 WR spot on his own team. At UCF, Davis had a decent sophomore season with 815 yards and 7 TDs. In his junior year he took the next step putting up a whopping 1,241 yards and 12 TDs. Davis is a big-bodied receiver, unlike the 3 guys in front of him, leaving some opportunity in certain packages.

Isaiah Hodgins

Similar to Davis, Hodgins was a day 3 pick in the 2020 NFL draft and likely will not see meaningful snaps in the 2020 (or 2021) season. His sole consideration is for taxi spots within dynasty formats.

Tight End

Dawson Knox

The only tight end on the Bills roster with any fantasy value is Knox, who showed flashes in 2019 when given the opportunity. That being said, Dawson is a raw prospect who saw the field inconsistently. By looks and metrics, Knox has the size, speed, and hands to succeed at the NFL level.

Dawson Knox PlayerProfiler metrics

The only part of his metrics that don’t stand out as above average is his college dominator. Yet with more time to develop in Buffalo’s system, I believe Knox is a year or two away from being a breakout candidate. For 2020, you can avoid him in redraft, though he could possibly be a streaming option later in the year. In dynasty he is a great low-value investment with the intangibles to be a solid piece in a few years.

Final Thoughts

The Buffalo Bills offense has a handful of players going later in drafts that can be very solid redraft options. The problem is that it’s difficult to tell who will be the best option to roster. On the dynasty side of things, I am only interested in the higher upside players with Moss & Diggs being the only locks that I would love to own. Allen could join those two if he’s able to show us better results through the air of course. If you believe in his talent, then get him sooner than later!

For more quality Undroppables content, check out our AFC East offseason breakdowns of the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins.

The Undroppables Hot Takes 2020

The Undroppables
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The Undroppables Hot Takes 2020
Welcome to the first annual edition of The Undroppables Hot Takes! The Undroppables analysts bring the heat with their boldest predictions for the upcoming fantasy football season!

Sam Darnold makes the leap and finishes as a Top 15 QB

I know it seems really spicy, but it’s more feasible than people think! Darnold closed the final 8 games of the fantasy season (Weeks 8-16) as the QB8 overall. This happened not only with the second worst protection rate in the league, (31st overall) but also with the 28th ranked supporting cast. Both of those should see bumps in 2020, giving Darnold more time to let the play develop with the Jets bringing in 6 new offensive lineman. On top of that, the additions of Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims, and a healthy Chris Herndon should only help his case.

Now add in the fact that the Jets defense has taken some big hits with Jamal Adams being shipped out and C.J. Mosley opting out this year; this should lead to a lot of negative game scripts and more passing opportunities. One last thing in Darnold’s favor for 2020 is that he is in the same offensive system and playbook for the first time in his NFL career. Familiarity should only benefit him, no matter how much you despise Adam Gase. Darnold is currently going as QB25 in redraft ADP, so you can get him as a late flier or your QB2 and hope the upside shows through.

– @FantasyInAFew

Baker Mayfield will rebound from last year’s struggles and finish as a Top 12 QB

Currently, the Expert Consensus Rankings pegs Baker as the QB19 in redraft (he finished as the QB19 last year.) The factors against Mayfield in 2020 include his recent struggles and the fact that Kevin Stefanski has taken over as the Browns’ head coach. Stefanski is most notable for limiting the Vikings’ passing game (e.g., Cousins, Thielen, Diggs) but Cousins still had respective finishes over the past two seasons as the QB15 and QB13.

Stefanski isn’t the only coaching change in Cleveland, however. The Browns also hired Bill Callahan to coach their offensive line. Callahan is well known as a great o-line coach, so he should bring sound blocking schemes and coaching to a group in transition. Cleveland also signed free agent linemen Jack Conklin from the Titans. Between their marquee signing and 10th overall draft pick Jedrick Wills Jr., I expect a welcome improvement to the offensive line.

Last year from Week 1 through 6, Baker averaged 13.06 points per game and ranked at QB21. Cleveland then had its bye in Week 7 and Kareem Hunt returned after the bye week. From Week 9 through 17, Mayfield produced 17.70 points per game as the QB9. This is quite a stark difference, as the addition of Hunt and his receiving prowess helped Baker be more efficient: his second-half numbers included a 60.1% completion rate and near 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio (15-8).

As Marc Mathyk pointed out, Mayfield has never finished better than QB17 in his first two seasons. It appears that Baker realizes that the time has come for him to reach the high expectations set by him and the Browns. He’s been noticeably quiet and away from the public eye, presumably focused on 2020 and preparing himself to make the leap.

– @101chalk

Jonathan Taylor will be a Top 10 RB

Jonathan Taylor will see what Vegas has deemed the easiest schedule in 2020 behind arguably the best offensive line in football. The only thing between him and a dominant fantasy football season is Marlon Mack, who is coming off a 2019 season with 1,000 rushing yards. Let me tell you why that isn’t stopping JT from eating: in 2019, the Colts rushed the ball 471 times; Mack got 247 of those carries. If we assume an even split, JT still gets over 200 carries. His college statistics, coach’s comments, and elite SPARQ rating tell me he will make the most of those opportunities and earn more.

– @fantasydukes

Cam Akers is the rookie RB1 and finishes as a Top 12 RB

Cam Akers will beat out Darrell Henderson and earn the starting running back spot vacated by the departure of Todd Gurley. With a majority of the Ram’s rushes and over 50 targets, Akers will finish as the highest-scoring rookie running back.

– @BpoFSU

Ronald Jones holds off the competition and finishes as a low-end RB1

Ronald Jones came into the NFL early. He’s only 23 years old and is finally putting it all together in terms of what it takes to be an NFL back. LeSean McCoy is a veteran depth piece, and Head Coach Bruce Arians gives rookies like Ke’Shawn Vaughn the invisible treatment. Jones has more scoring opportunities in a potent, Brady-led offense, and his 10.0 yard per catch and top-tier yards after contact statistics prove he can be a productive weapon. My projection for Jones sits at 190 carries for 855 yards & 42 receptions for 378 yards with 8+ TDs.

– @PauliesSleepers

Nick Chubb will be a Top 3 Dynasty RB this time next year

With Kevin Stefanski coming over from Minnesota bringing a run heavy approach, combined with the Browns adding Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr. to the starting lineup, it sets up Nick Chubb to have another fantastic year. Stefanski brought in seasoned o-line coach Bill Callahan and his 21 years of NFL experience, which should help Wills Jr speed up the transition to LT and pull it all together up front and put the offense on the right track. If and when Hunt leaves in the offseason, and Mike McCarthy doesn’t use Zeke to his full potential, then Chubb is a top 3 dynasty running back this time next year.

– @Jeoff66

D.J. Moore will be a Top 5 WR

In Michael Thomas’ second year in the NFL, he posted a receiving line of 104 receptions, 1,245 yards, and 5 touchdowns in 16 games, with Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees as his quarterback. With Kyle Allen as his quarterback for D.J. Moore’s second year, his 16-game pace (based on 14 full games played) was 98 receptions, 1,324 yards, and 5 touchdowns.

Moore is only 23 years old, he’s going into his highly-touted “3rd year breakout” season,
hes’ getting an upgrade at QB in Teddy Bridgewater, and LSU’s former offensive coordinator Joe Brady is now the OC in Carolina. Top it with the fact that Head Coach Matt Rhule offered Moore a scholarship to Temple as he was coming out of high school, and it’s obvious the stars are aligning for D.J. Moore to be the next Fantasy Stud WR.

– @AndrewMackens 

Juju Smith-Schuster will be a Top 7 WR in his last year as a Steeler

Obviously, Juju Smith-Schuster relies on the health of Ben Roethlisberger, and this take makes the assumption that we’re going to get a full season out of both players. Juju is playing for a contract, and it’s my belief that he wants to leave Pittsburgh to come back home and play in Los Angeles.

We haven’t heard very much from Juju this offseason. Whereas previous off-season‘s he was all over social media being a clown and having a good time, but not this year. That says to me he was focused when it’s gonna come out more motivated than ever. He put on 15 pounds of muscle so he can carry the weight of being a number one receiver on that team and I think ultimately his desire is to come play at home. One way for him to do that is to be a top 10 wide receiver in 2020.

– @FantasyFBStoner

Justin Jefferson leads the Vikings in receptions.

– @FF_Terminator

Jonnu Smith is a top 5 TE

Book it.

– @KL_Fantasy

Darren Waller is a lock to finish as a Top 3 TE

Last year, Waller was one of the NFL’s most productive tight ends, but people are wondering if he can repeat. Looking at some of the most predictive stats to following season fantasy points (r^2 > 40%), Waller was second in YAC, fourth in receiving first downs per game, and third in receiving yards per game among tight ends. Looking beyond production, he’s more athletic than almost every other TE in the league, with a 99th percentile speed score and 90th percentile burst score. Both 2019’s production and his athleticism add up to a big year in 2020.

People are saying that the additions of rookie wide receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards will eat into his target share in an already run-happy offense. While they will get their targets, targets are funneled to good players, and Waller stands among the elite at his position. Kyle Borgognoni wrote a great article debunking the narrative that “there are too many mouths to feed.” Additionally, rookie wide receivers don’t tend to be very productive in their first year. Since 1990, only 15% of first round rookie wide receivers have finished as a top-24 WR.

Waller is going to be elite, fade him at your own risk. Just take it from Jason Witten, “I think he’s going to be a star … I don’t think there’s a limit to what he can achieve in this league.”

For more quality fantasy content, follow us on Twitter, @TheUndroppables.

Kansas City Chiefs 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Randal Kennedy
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Kansas City Chiefs 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Our very own Randal Kennedy, aka @FF_Terminator, brings us his Kansas City Chiefs offseason breakdown with a little more brevity. Let us know @TheUndroppables on Twitter if you enjoy the alternate format!

Running Back

Damien Williams turned the fantasy world on its head when he opted out of the 2020 season. He effectively ended one of the league’s best training camp battles before it even started. That leaves newcomer Clyde Edwards-Helaire holding the keys to one very fast Ferrari.

A first round pick in this spring’s NFL draft, the former LSU standout should thrive with his ability to make defenders miss in space. His versatility will allow offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy to move him all over the formation. The only potential fly in the ointment could be his inability to keep his QB upright. He ranked 314th out of 349 qualified FBS running backs in pass protection. Struggles could crack the door open for backfield mate Darrell Williams or second year pro Darwin Thompson. Both have flashed ability but neither have been able to sustain success at the NFL level.

The Legion of Zoom

The NFL’s most explosive offense has been a mixture of Andy Reid’s west coast attack with elements of a vertical spread mixed in. The 2019 Chiefs were second in yards per play and sixth in pace, but just 25th in plays per game, indicating they like to go downfield and gain chunks of yardage.

Enter Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. Hill’s yards per catch was down slightly from the sizzling 17 he averaged in 2018, but that’s due more to his diversified route tree than any loss of ability. He’s worked hard on his game and it shows. When teams take away the deep ball, Hill is just as deadly on simple stop routes. Also, no WR ran the ball as many times as Hill did in 2020. The Chiefs incorporate a lot of fly-motion in their concepts, the idea being to get their guys one on one in space. This is something the Chiefs do very well.

Chiefs
Travis Kelce celebrates in the end zone.

One would be remiss without mentioning tight end Travis Kelce. As of this writing, the mercurial TE had just signed a four-year, $57.25 million extension. Well earned for someone who has finished as fantasy’s TE1 four straight seasons. Kelce is a mid-second round pick if you want him on your fantasy team. If you play in a TE premium league, that’s a relative bargain.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes signed his own 10-year, $503 million mega-deal that will keep him slinging passes in Arrowhead. One year after winning the league’s MVP, he ended the Chiefs 50-year Super Bowl drought. Even though he took a step back statistically from his monster 2018, he’s still the overall QB1 for fantasy purposes, especially in leagues that award 6 points for passing TDs.

Final Thoughts

The Chiefs seemingly locked up all their important pieces this offseason. Inking Chris Jones on the defensive side of the ball was key. Everything is in place for another Super Bowl run. It’s a great time to be a Kansas City Chief, and a great time for fantasy managers to cash in on Andy Reid’s genius.

For more of Randal’s articles, check out his offseason breakdowns of the 49ers and Chargers, only at theundroppables.com

Philadelphia Eagles 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Justin Mandaro
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Philadelphia Eagles 2020 Offseason Breakdown

The final installment of The Undroppables NFC East offseason breakdown, covering the Philadelphia Eagles, is here! We’ve saved the “best” for last. The best is in large air quotes because we all know Dallas is better! 😀

The Eagles are the one organization that remained constant in 2020 with an offseason that didn’t see complete turnover from the inside. However, they set a goal to establish themselves with weapons to support Carson Wentz, while also making sure they make changes to the 18th ranked defense according to PFF.com. The first thing the Eagles set out to do was to upgrade a secondary that ranked 23rd in PFF Coverage grade. Enter Darius Slay in a trade with Detroit. Of corners with at least 400 coverage snaps, Slay ranked 24th in opposing quarterbacks NFL Pass Rating when targeted. He was tied for 5th in interceptions and only gave up three TDs on the season despite being targeted the 12th most (84). The Eagles also signed Nickel Robey-Coleman, who added comparable coverage numbers with an NFL Pass Rating when targeted only 84.2. Robey-Coleman was targeted fewer times than Slay despite playing more snaps in coverage. The Eagles also added to a run-defense that already ranks inside the top 10 by signing former Steeler Javon Hargrave.

Offensively, the Eagles made some questionable decisions. They decided not to sign a WR in free agency and drafted a QB in the 2nd-round of the NFL Draft. However, the team did make sure to get Wentz a few new toys with the drafting of speedster Jalen Reagor and trading for Marquis Goodwin. They also did not to address the offensive line that is getting older and often injured. Philly lost pro-bowl guard Brandon Brooks for the season following a torn Achilles during an off-season workout session. They also resign pro-bowl tackle, Jason Peters, to a one-year deal. Peters will likely move to right guard in his 17th season after playing left tackle for most of his career.

Quarterbacks

The Quarterbacks room in the Eagles training facility will continue to be led by Carson Wentz. Wentz is an absolute monster and will continue to control the huddle for the Eagles for at least a few more years. Wentz has some significant injury concerns, and it forced the Eagles to make a move to draft Heisman finalist Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round. Hurts comes to the Eagles with dominant numbers in college. He played in two national championship games and reached the College Football Playoff with Oklahoma in his only year in Norman. Hurts brings a dynamic skill level of both arm talent and the ability to move on the ground. He was the fastest QB in this years combine running a sub 4.6 40-yard dash and finished 2nd in the Heisman voting behind #1 overall pick Joe Burrow.

Despite the Tony Romo-esque career, Wentz is arguably one of the best QBs in the NFL. If not for a torn ACL, Wentz was the hands-down winner of the MVP award and likely the Super Bowl-winning QB in 2018, not Nick Foles. Wentz was dominant last season with a ham sandwich and a bag of chips as receiving options. Other than Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, most of the players catching passes for the Eagles came off practice squads. Only one receiver played all 16 games last year, and that was J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Down the stretch, JJAW and former college QB Greg Ward were the only receivers to play more than three games. Despite the lack of weapons around him, Wentz finished the 7th best fantasy QB in 2019 from weeks 11 – 17. In that time frame he threw for 6th most yards (1,979) and the 7th most touchdowns (12). In 2020, seven QBs are being drafted before Carson Wentz. Of those seven, only two of them scored more fantasy points down the stretch than Wentz. With new weapons and an off-season for the existing threats to get healthy, Wentz should continue his hot finish to 2019.

Running Backs

Miles Sanders may no longer be competing with Jordan Howard for goal-line work, but he certainly isn’t going to have it easy with Boston Scott still running around. Miles Sanders had a tremendous second half of the year in 2019, finishing as RB12 in PPR fantasy scoring. Sanders gained nearly 700 all-purpose yards after week ten and scored four times good for 120.6 fantasy points. Sanders also saw his touches rise from 97 in the first nine games of the season to 131 in the final eight weeks. Making defenders miss was key to Sanders’ success evading the 13th most tackles with the 5th best juke rate. In the last seven games of the season, Sanders averaged 14.7 carries per game, up from his year-long average of only 11.2. Although it seemed at times that Boston Scott wouldn’t go away, the numbers don’t add up. Over the same stretch, Scott amassed just 45 touches with only 238 yards and one touchdown.

Meanwhile, Sanders had the leagues 8th most red zone carries, 4th most TDs from inside the 5-yard line. If you are one of those players who believe in the narrative, Miles Sanders is set to explode in his sophomore season. With RB1 upside, Sanders could finish top-5 at his position in 2020, while Boston Scott is likely to play the Darren Sproles role in this offense.

Wide Receivers 

The Eagles have never really put any resources into providing WR weapons for their QBs. Since 2010, only four Eagles receivers have finished inside the top-24 fantasy WRs. Only one of those – Jeremy Maclin – ever reached the top-10. Last year was no different, with the top two receiving options being aged veterans. Alshon Jeffery has played 16 games in a season just once in the previous five seasons.

On the other hand, DeSean Jackson has played 16 games in a season only once in his entire 12-year career. Both would end up being injured and miss at least six games with Jackson missing 13. The Eagles would draft JJAW and sign Greg Ward to the practice squad, and while only one of them played 16 games (JJAW), it wasn’t until Greg Ward officially made the team’s main roster that things began to change for Philly. Ward was a stud down the stretch making big plays and helping the Eagles secure the NFC East title. The Eagles receiving core is mostly untouched in 2020. However, the team finally put some draft capital in the position by taking Jalen Reagor in the first round. The selection of Reagor would mark the fourth time since 2000 the Eagles have selected a receiver in the first round. Unfortunately for them, the previous three options didn’t pan out. However, Reagor has some insane ball skills that should provide value to both your fantasy team and the Eagles organization. 

Tight Ends 

Eagles
Zach Ertz making it look easy.

The one position group offensively that has been a significant focus for the Eagles organization has been Tight End. That started in 2013 when the organization selected Zach Ertz in the 2nd round. It continued in 2018 when the Eagles selected Dallas Goedert in the 2nd round of that draft. In 2019, both Goedert and Ertz finished in the top 10 of fantasy scoring for TEs. In Goedert’s rookie season, they both finished top-20. The Eagles offense uses their TEs like receivers, which is why they haven’t needed a pure #1 wide reciever. Ertz has gradually risen the fantasy rankings since entering the league in 2013. In his rookie season, he finished as TE23. Since then, he has been top-13 in each year and improving to top-5 over the last three seasons. As long as Ertz is healthy and Wentz remains the QB you can expect this kind of production.

There is a pure connection between the two – very similar to Tony Romo and Jason Witten. Despite finishing 4th in TE PPR scoring last year, Ertz is in line for positive regression in 2020. For the first time since 2014, Ertz had a catch% less than 70% in 2019. With the lack of work and comfort for new receiver, Jalen Reagor due to this very abnormal offseason, Wentz and his TE connection should get even better in 2020. If Ertz can get back over that 70% catch rate, we could be looking at even more catches, yards, and touchdowns. With a current TE4 ADP that only equates to free value if he does. 

Make sure to check out more of Justin’s NFC East Breakdowns, including the Cowboys, Giants, and Washington Football Team, only at The Undroppables.

Cincinnati Bengals 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Marc Mathyk
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Cincinnati Bengals 2020 Offseason Breakdown

The reward for being the NFL’s worst team is getting the following year’s first overall rookie pick. The Cincinnati Bengals won this distinction in 2019 and were gifted former LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. When it comes down to all team sports, the quarterback is the most important player period. Even though an NFL team has 22 starters compared to nine in baseball, six in ice hockey and five in basketball, a quarterback’s value trumps everything. A great quarterback will not only improve the team’s offense, but also help out the entire team by keeping the defense off the field.

On “Burrowed” Time

After a pretty respectable run with Andy Dalton under center, the wheels fell off in 2019. The Bengals were 2-14 in 2020. However, in his nine seasons as a starter, the Bengals were good for the first five but were under .500 in the last four. It was time for a coaching change a year ago and this year it was time to change the face of the franchise.

Now the Bengals are all in on Joe Burrow, the one-year wonder. This is concerning for sure, but what a year it was. Burrow threw for 5,671 yards, which was third most in NCAA history. His 10.8 yards per attempt ranks as eighth best in NCAA history, but his 12.5 adjusted passing yards per attempt lifts him to fourth best. His 76.3% completion percentage is the second best in college history. He threw for 60 touchdowns, the most in NCAA history, while only throwing six interceptions. Burrow is also the record holder for the best passing efficiency rating in a single season at 202.

Burrow did all of this while playing in the toughest conference (SEC). To prove any doubters wrong, in the national title game against Clemson, Burrow had a six touchdown performance. He went 15-0 on the season and won the Heisman Trophy with 94% of the first place votes.

In the fantasy world, Burrow is currently QB20 according to FantasyPros Consensus Rankings. Absolutely grab him as your second quarterback in redraft. If he turns out to be what many believe he can be, he might be your starter sooner than later. If he’s bad, then you only need to plug him in for a bye week or drop him for someone entirely different. He’s worth taking the risk and could be an inexpensive difference maker.

Offensive Line Will Be Better

According to Pro Football Focus, the Cincinnati Bengals had the 30th ranked offensive line. They were only better than the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Rams. They drafted Hakeem Adeniji at the start of the sixth round. He brings versatility and played every game in college for Kansas. He was thought to be a third of fourth round talent according to Jordan Reid of the Draft Network. The Bengals also signed Xavier Su’a-Filo, a former second-round pick. He’s not been anything special but he is better than what they’ve had.

The most important news is the Bengals get Jonah Williams back. He was a first-round pick in 2019, but missed the entire season because of injury. He should help Michael Jordan, who was a fourth-round pick last season. Jordan had an inconsistent rookie season, but he was the youngest player on the team and will have more talent around him, namely Williams. Don’t expect Cincinnati’s offensive line to be top five, but if they finish around the middle of the pack, they would benefit both Burrow and Joe Mixon tremendously.

Defensive Makeover Will Take Time

Cincinnati might be a better team in 2020 by investing quite heavily in the defense. However, defenses don’t go from worst to best overnight. It will take time for signed free agents like cornerback Trae Waynes and safety Vonn Bell to gel.  Cincinnati also drafted three linebackers, so the middle of their defense could be better, but this won’t happen overnight. Losing a veteran presence like Nick Vigil (who signed with the Rams) will make this defense rely on players like Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins to lead the group.

600 Reasons To Draft Burrow

As excited and hopeful Bengals fans must feel right now, they need to temper expectations for 2020. There are a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball. One thing is going to be apparent – they are going to struggle in many games and be forced to throw the ball often. This is good for Joe Burrow. Last year, Cincinnati quarterbacks had a combined 616 pass attempts. Don’t be surprised if those numbers remain about the same.

Joe Burrow might experience some growing pains at times and won’t be as accurate as he was in college, but he should be better than Dalton and company were last year. More attempts means more completions; with the high passing volume, Burrow should be able to hit 20 touchdown passes with the potential for more. A.J. Green is back. The offensive line will be better. This offense should have no problem moving the ball.

This benefits Mixon, Boyd, and Green, but it especially benefits Burrow as long as he plays to the level most are expecting. He won’t be Patrick Mahomes, but he should be better than his current QB20 ranking. Volume will be there. His efficiency needs to be just average, and Burrow can also add value through his better-than-average rushing ability.

Joe Mixon is #GoodatFootball

Joe Mixon has not lived up to expectations in three years, but he’s never had much help. Despite playing on a poor offense with a horrific offensive line in 2019, Mixon showed many why he has the potential to be a star. People need to ignore stats like yards per carry and focus on tangibles that show his talent.

Bengals
Mixon must be hyped for Joe Burrow under center.

Mixon’s 278 carries was tied for fifth in the league. That’s pretty exceptional considering he played on a team that wasn’t winning. His volume will go up as Cincinnati will improve, even if it’s ever so slightly. He was also seventh with a 27.7% Dominator Rating. That was better than Ezekiel Elliot, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, and Le’Veon Bell. Playing with Burrow (who loved targeting Clyde Edwards-Helaire at LSU) can only help him. He’s never been utilized in the passing game enough in the past. This should be an area Mixon must be salivating over, knowing that he might be used more extensively.

To go along with volume, Mixon showed signs last year that he’s elite. His 32.9% juke rate was fourth best out of running backs with at least 100 carries. He was only behind Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson, and Devin Singletary. Only Raheem Mostert and Saquon Barkley had more than Mixon’s 1.84 yards created per touch. Finally, Mixon had 6.4 evaded tackles per game. That was the most in the entire league.

The time is now for Mixon to assert himself as a top-tier running back in the NFL.

Tyler Boyd & A.J. Green = Value

Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green are good values at their current WR29 and WR30 ADPs. Boyd is similar to Jarvis Landry: he comes with a safe floor and a limited ceiling. Green is more like an Odell Beckham Jr. He has the potential to be a WR1, even at the age of 31, the caveat being if he can remain healthy. Boyd is the safe play, while Green is the high risk/reward choice.

Boyd is coming off of two consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. He had 90 receptions last year but was less efficient than in 2018. This makes sense since the Bengals offense was terrible to begin with. If he can mesh the efficiency of 2018 with the volume of 2019, he has the potential to reach the 1,200-yard mark. Last year that would have placed him in the top five in yards. He’s never been a touchdown machine either, so any kind of positive regression would only bolster his value in fantasy.

A.J. Green’s talent and production has never been questioned. The problem with Green has been his health. He’s missed 13 games in three years. However, when he plays he is elite. In his career, Green has averaged 87 receptions for 1,284 yards and 9 touchdowns over a 16-game season. The last time he was on the field was in 2018 when he only played nine games, but was as dominant as ever.

Many think that Green is done. However, if he were truly finished, why then would Cincinnati throw the $18 million franchise tag on him when they could have easily let him walk and sign elsewhere? Expect Green to be in the conversation for Comeback Player of the Year in 2020 if he avoids the injury bug that has plagued him for the last few seasons.

The Third Man

While A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd will be the receiving focus on the Bengals, the third option remains blurry for 2020. Tee Higgins was drafted at the beginning of the second round and has the talent to eventually replace Green, but might not get as much playing time as people are hoping for. Former first rounder John Ross only played in eight games in 2019, but in three games he was electric; Ross remains a fantasy boom or bust type of player. He is probably the de facto starter, but will be on a short leash. If Ross fails to stay healthy or doesn’t start off like a house on fire, the team might turn to Auden Tate, who surprised many with his quiet contribution in 2019. Tate played 12 games and saw 80 targets (even though he only caught half of them.)

In any case, trying to figure out which player to draft is futile. Arrows seem to be pointing to Ross, but the team could go with any of these three as the #3 WR. Even if one rises above the others, he won’t be a consistent contributor that will be worth rostering in most leagues. Higgins remains the guy to target in dynasty, however.

A Late Sample Stash

The tight end position was one Cincinnati chose to ignore this offseason. They lost Tyler Eifert and did not replace him. C.J. Uzomah has only proven to be average at best. He’s most likely  going to be the starting tight end who will see the most action. That said, sophomore Drew Sample is an interesting wild card. There has been some talk that he has been practicing as a movable piece, lining up as both a tight end and as a wide receiver. He’s a sneaky late round-add in dynasty, and could be the tight end to roster by mid-season. The good news is he is basically free, so he can be that final round flier to take a chance on.

Conclusion

Apart from Joe Mixon, who isn’t cheap but still could still outperform his current ADP, every other offensive player on the Bengals is undervalued. Therefore, target any and all of these guys. Joe Burrow, and A.J. Green have the best potential value returns. Tyler Boyd might not return as much value, but is the constant contributor that is as close to a sure thing as any in 2020.

For more of Marc Mathyk’s coverage on the AFC North, check out offseason breakdowns of the Steelers, Browns, and Ravens.

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