Denver Broncos Offseason Breakdown

Brian O'Connell
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Denver Broncos Offseason Breakdown

Gone are the days of the Broncos’ elite and fantasy friendly offense. After years of struggling to find a replacement for Peyton Manning, the Broncos find themselves in an AFC West that’s full of offensive weapons, and an offense of their own full of promising young talent with premium draft capital.

Similar to the haul of wide receivers the division rival Las Vegas Raiders selected in this year’s draft, the Broncos selected two wide receivers in the first two rounds, giving second-year quarterback Drew Lock some shiny new toys to throw to. The other main addition to this offense is Melvin Gordon from the Los Angeles Chargers, who looks to take control of the starting running back role. With a plethora of youthful talent, is this Denver offense worth investing in, or is it set to disappoint?

Offensive Overview

In their second year under head coach Vic Fangio, the Broncos are getting a new offensive coordinator in Pat Shurmur to replace Rich Scangarello, who was fired at the end of last season. The offense can only improve with Pat Shurmur in control, given Denver finished 28th in points for and total yards last season. Shurmur has experienced success developing young QBs, and the quality of the Denver offense and the performance of its talented skill position players rely heavily on how well Shurmur can groom Lock and help him take the next step.

Quarterback

Drew Lock

With his 4-1 record in 5 starts last year, Drew Lock is a hot name in the fantasy football community this offseason. After taking over for Joe Flacco, Lock passed for 1,020 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 Interceptions, with a 64.1% completion percentage. With the addition of Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and a second year with both Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant, we can expect Lock to progress statistically. Just how much Lock progresses might depend on the offense that Pat Shurmur installs. It’s reasonable to expect at least a similar stat line as Daniel Jones’ from his 2019 rookie season, as I have Lock projected for 3,400 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, which puts him as my predicted 20th ranked QB.

Personally, I think the hype is surpassing the realistic expectations of Lock at this point in the offseason. While Lock’s 4-1 record as a starter is promising, some of his advanced passing statistics should temper our expectations. In his 5 starts, Drew Lock had 4.7 completed air yards per completion, which measures the average yards the ball travels past the line of scrimmage prior to being caught per completion. Per Pro Football Reference, this is the lowest of all quarterbacks with more than 150 pass attempts.

Not only did Drew Lock not pass the ball far down the field, he had the 6th lowest average air yards per attempt of qualified quarterbacks. When he did throw it long, he was very bad at it. According to NFLfastR data, Lock had 12.7% completion percentage below expected on throws equal to or greater than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. Lock has shown that he can throw deep successfully in college, so to truly “unlock” the full potential of the Denver offense, Lock will need to improve on these downfield throws. While I expect Lock to get better at throwing downfield, I imagine we continue to see a similar level on conservative pass selection during the 2020 season as the Broncos continue to lean on their talented defense, limiting Lock’s potential.

Running Back

It’s difficult to predict what the Broncos run/pass splits will be in 2020. The Broncos had the 10th highest run percentage in the NFL last season, and that’s after finishing with a 6-10 record and trailing for most of the season. While Shurmur will most likely push the Broncos to be slightly more pass friendly, I expect the Broncos’ rush percentage to only decrease slightly as Denver should be in more winning situations. Per Rotoworld, Denver only rushed 38% of the time when trailing last year compared to 45% overall. With a similar run/pass split as 2019, there’s plenty of opportunity in the Denver offense for the running backs, but a split in the carries between newcomer Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay might limit your ability to trust either of them in your fantasy lineup.

Melvin Gordon

Gordon comes to the Broncos from the AFC West rival Chargers after 5 years where he was consistently a top fantasy RB. Gordon has been a frustrating player for many fantasy managers to have, as he’s only finished one season with 16 games, which also was his only season with over 1,000 yards. Most of Gordon’s past fantasy value has come from his high usage, especially in the passing game. Gordon should see a decrease in both rush attempts and targets this season after leaving the Chargers and checkdown-heavy Philip Rivers. In my most recent projections, I see Gordon getting over 200 touches for the 6th consecutive season, but his split and reduction in pass game work leads him to scoring around 13.1 points per game in PPR scoring and 10.5 points per game in non-PPR.

Phillip Lindsay

Even though he has more 1,000 rushing-yard seasons than Melvin Gordon, Lindsay will most likely see a smaller percent of the rushing share for the first time in his career. That said, I believe the split will be more equal than what we saw for the Broncos last season, where Lindsay had 55% of the carries and Royce Freeman had 32%. Lindsay’s high number of targets, combined with the possibility that Melvin Gordon won’t be able to hold up for a full season, makes Lindsay an interesting target for fantasy teams that need running back help in the 8th and 9th rounds. I currently have Lindsay projected for 10 points per game in PPR, 7.8 in non-PPR, with plenty of upside if Gordon misses any time.

Receivers

As mentioned above, I believe with Pat Shurmur taking control of the offense we’ll see a slight increase in pass attempts in the Denver Broncos offense. The Broncos finished 27th in the NFL in pass attempts last season with 504. That number should increase this season, which could lead to enough volume for a successful fantasy season for several of Denver’s receivers.

Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton enters his third season with the Broncos as the alpha receiver in this offense. In his 5 games with Lock last season, Sutton averaged 8 targets per game. While that number will most likely decrease slightly with the new additions at wide receiver, I expect Sutton to remain Denver’s most targeted wide receiver by a healthy margin. I have him projected for just over 100 targets this season, which places him comfortably as a WR2. There’s some upside to that projection with the hope that Pat Shurmur will make this offense more pass heavy. Sutton is a prime medium- to high-floor target in the 4th or 5th round of drafts.

Jerry Jeudy

The first-round pick for the Broncos adds some much-needed talent in the wide receiver group after Emmanuel Sanders left midseason last year. Jeudy was many analyst’s top wide receiver in this year’s draft, and he could immediately see enough targets to make him relevant, but should be considered more of a dynasty buy than a redraft buy.

K.J. Hamler

K.J. Hamler seems to be the forgotten Broncos wide receiver this season. Drafted in the second round, his selection underlines how badly Denver needed talent at the wide receiver position. The 10th rookie receiver selected, (before more discussed players like Denzel Mims and Chase Claypool) K.J. Hamler will fight with DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick for the #3 WR position on the team. Although he should most likely end the season as the 3rd wide receiver on the depth chart, Hamler doesn’t look like he’ll see enough opportunity to be useful in redraft. In dynasty, he’s a screaming buy and stash worth inquiring about in your leagues.

Noah Fant

A year removed from being selected 20th overall in the 2019 draft, Noah Fant is an athletic monster (Just look at his mind-boggling athletic profile from PlayerProfiler.com below!) that’s looking to build upon a productive rookie season. He’ll be battling with Jeudy to be Drew Lock’s #2 receiver behind Sutton, a competition I see Fant winning.

Denver Broncos
Noah Fant’s Player Profiler Metrics

Fant is a YAC monster that led the team last season with 8.3 yards after completion per reception. Fant’s yards after catch prowess is important for him to be fantasy relevant, as he had the lowest average depth of target for wide receivers and tight ends with more than 20 targets last season. Having the advantage of a full year with Drew Lock and head coach Vic Fangio over the highly drafted rookie wide receivers, Fant is a great late round tight end target that’s full of upside.

Review and Fantasy Outlook

With so much youth, it’s hard to predict how this offense and its players will produce this season without most of training camp and no preseason games. While Lock figures to stay conservative with his pass selection, improving his passing 20+ yards downfield combined with slightly higher volume in the pass game will most likely lead to him being a successful weekly streamer, but not an every-week starter. The split between Gordon and Lindsay will limit both of their upsides, but if you had to force me to take one, I would lean Lindsay at his current ADP considering Gordon might miss a few games. The talent the Broncos have in their receiving corps seemed to be priced accordingly, and they could easily beat their ADPs, with Sutton presenting a safe floor and medium/high ceiling if Lock keeps on progressing and K.J. Hamler as a massive buy in dynasty leagues. Finally, I am all in on Fant as a possible breakout tight end this season, as he has a solid floor that will have weekly upside based on his ability to create after the catch.

Baltimore Ravens 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Marc Mathyk
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Baltimore Ravens 2020 Offseason Breakdown

The Baltimore Ravens were one of the bigger surprises of 2019. Many had high hopes for sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson, but no one predicted him to be the leagues’ best quarterback and MVP. The Ravens had the best regular season in the league at 14-2. Despite a reality check in the playoffs when they were upset by the Tennessee Titans, the Ravens could not have asked for a better year.

Lamar’s Invincible 2019 Season

Lamar Jackson was by far the most efficient quarterback last season. He only had 401 passing attempts, but had the most touchdown passes. His 36 touchdowns compared to only six interceptions translates to a remarkable 6:1 TD/INT ratio. One would assume that Jackson’s impressive 66.1% passing percentage would reflect that of a cautious quarterback. This was not the case. In fact, his 7.8 yards per attempt put him in the league’s top ten. Not bad for a player many predicted would end up being a wide receiver.

As good as Jackson was as a passer, he really separated himself from the rest of the pack with his rushing ability. In only 15 games, Jackson had 1,206 yards, averaging 6.9 yards per carry and leading the league in quarterback rushing touchdowns with seven. To put things into perspective, Jackson’s 1,206 yards would have made him the sixth-best running back in 2019. More importantly, he was able to shatter Michael Vick’s quarterback rushing record of 1,039 yards.

In fantasy, Jackson easily had the most points out of anyone. No matter which site or format, he was around 60-70 points ahead of second place Christian McCaffrey. Anything is possible in the NFL, but to assume that Jackson will equal or improve upon his 2019 performance would be naively optimistic. Passer rating is calculated using a player’s passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Jackson’s 113.3 passer rating in 2019 is the 11th best of all time.

Facing Inevitable Regression

One thing’s for certain: if the Ravens’ defense is as good as it was in 2019, then Jackson’s volume will most likely not increase. In their two regular season losses, Jackson had 43 and 34 passing attempts. He averaged only 21.6 attempts in his 14 wins. Jackson threw 59 times in their only playoff game. In total, Jackson averaged 45.3 attempts when his team lost. It’s also important to note that he threw 33 touchdowns and three interceptions when Baltimore won. When they lost, he threw three touchdowns and three interceptions. Big difference.

If the Ravens get rattled, so does Jackson. If Baltimore’s defense doesn’t play as well as they did in 2019, then more pressure will be placed on Jackson’s shoulders. With that pressure comes inefficiency and mistakes. He might be a great quarterback, but unlike Patrick Mahomes, Jackson hasn’t proven he has the ability to overcome adversity. In fact, Baltimore never had to rally from any second half deficit to win. In all three of their losses, Baltimore was trailing at half time.

If Baltimore doesn’t get off to a hot start and trails, Jackson’s passing volume will increase, which might not be a good thing. It would be surprising if Jackson could replicate his efficiency level coming from behind. Even though Jackson is the best rushing quarterback of all time, he averaged only 56 rushing yards in regular season losses, compared to averaging 84 rushing yards when they won. One would also have to assume that opposing teams will be more prepared for Jackson in 2020.

Will Mark Andrews Assert Himself as the TE3?

Ravens
Mark Andrews is pumped for 2020.

Oftentimes, a player will generate massive hype that will then cool down later. Some might even start off slow, then gain momentum as the season is about to start. Mark Andrews, however, has received praise by almost everyone since the beginning of the offseason, without any signs of said hype waning.

According to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, Andrews is being viewed as the league’s TE3, behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Kelce has led the league in tight end fantasy scoring for three consecutive seasons. Kittle is entering 2020 after establishing himself as the league’s second-highest scoring tight end. Andrews was fifth in 2019 as a sophomore. This was a giant leap from his rookie season in which he was 17th.

Almost everyone believes Andrews will ascend even further in 2020. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Andrews is being drafted in the middle of the fourth round in redraft. This is about five spots ahead of Zach Ertz and a full round ahead of Darren Waller, both of which finished ahead of Andrews last year along with Kelce and Kittle.

Usurping Ertz and Waller to be TE3 for Andrews isn’t out of the equation. Based on FantasyPros 2019 fantasy points, Andrews was only eight points behind Ertz and 14 behind Waller, with Waller playing an extra game. With Hayden Hurst out of the picture an no direct replacement, it seems that Mark Andrews is destined to live up to his offseason expectations.

TE3, But Fewer Fantasy Points?

It’s very possible that Mark Andrews climbs up the tight end ranks and finishes in the top three with fewer fantasy points than he did last year. But how?

Baltimore’s offense in 2019 was atypical. There were no major wide receivers of consequence. Mark Andrews was Lamar Jackson’s most targeted receiver in 2019 with 98 targets. Rookie Marquise Brown was a distant second with 71 and Willie Snead was further back with 46. To put this into perspective, Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins had more targets than Andrews and Brown combined. Many talk about the Seattle Seahawks’ run-first approach, but Baltimore ran the most run plays in 2019. That’s why the Baltimore tight end core ranked last in Team Pass Plays out of the 42 tight ends who caught 20 or more passes in 2019.

Many have Andrews as being the TE3 in 2020, but according to most statistics gathered from the 2019 season, he simply isn’t there yet. He was only seventh among tight ends in targets per game with 6.5 and was 11th in receptions per game with 4.3. Andrews also lacks the Yards After Catch (YAC) appeal. He was ranked 30th out of 42, only gaining on average 2.6 yards after the catch. This might have something to do with his league-leading 1.33 Deep Targets per game, but his lack of YAC is concerning.

Volume >>> Touchdown Dependency

What really helped Andrews achieve 13.8 fantasy points per game (T-5th) were his touchdowns. He had 10, which led the league. That was four more than Kelce, Ertz, and Hooper; five more than Kittle and Henry; seven more than Waller, Engram, and Higbee. Touchdowns aren’t reliable stats anyone can predict or expect to replicate. Targets and receptions are more consistent indicators – two indicators from 2019 that do not favor Andrew’s rise in 2020.

It would be a large leap of faith for him to become what most expect. He could still end up as the TE3 due to the parity at the position, but in the process he might not return value.

More Means Less

With most effective systems, there is a saying “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The Ravens will continue to employ a similar run/pass distribution as long as game script coincides with their plan. Even if it doesn’t, Jackson will most likely be less efficient and effective as mentioned previously. For argument’s sake, let’s say that Jackson will be forced to throw a bit more in 2020. Projecting him for 450 attempts seems fair. That’s about three more per game.

When Jackson had to throw the ball more during the three games Baltimore was behind, he didn’t target Andrews significantly more than he did when they were winning. In fact, Andrews averaged 7.3 targets in losses compared to 6.4 in wins. Marquise Brown, however, saw a huge difference. He averaged 5 during wins but averaged 9 when Baltimore was playing from behind. This may be a small sample size of three games, but it does show that when Jackson is behind, he tends to look to his wide receivers more.

Sum Greater Than Its Parts

Speaking of wide receivers, Baltimore has sneakily been drafting them heavily in the past two rookie drafts. Last year, it was Brown and Miles Boykin, a player who did very little but was still a third round pick who brings size and freak athleticism to the table. In 2020, they drafted a couple of later targets, Devin Duvernay and James Proche. Duvernay is interesting because he was used mostly in the slot at Texas, but comes with 4.39 speed. Proche is a typical slot receiver who was a steal in the sixth round. He had 301 college receptions, which is the 16th most of all time. They still have Willie Snead, the forgotten man, who was clearly the team’s third option in 2019. He had 46 receptions and five touchdowns.

Predicting who will emerge as the two “other wide receivers” next to Brown is not clear. One would assume that it would be Boykin playing outside with Snead in the slot,but it wouldn’t be surprising if Duvernay or even Proche end up starting by mid-season. In any case, none of them are worth drafting in redraft, but all of them are worthy dynasty stashes with Snead being the “least desirable” at 27 years old. As a group, however, look at them as a greater sum than its parts.

Hooray For Hollywood?

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is probably the most intriguing and undervalued receiver on the Ravens this season. He’s currently WR32 in PPR, which isn’t incredible value, but it would not be surprising if he ends up a top-24 receiver. If the extra weight he’s put on hasn’t affected his speed greatly, then Brown could be a good buy. He should be the number one target on the team on passing downs, which in itself means he will be the receiver to own in Baltimore.

Ingram Is Still The Running Back to Draft

As for running backs, Mark Ingram continues to be the best play and is currently viewed as the RB23. Last year, he was fantasy RB11 in PPR scoring. Many are enamored by second-round rookie J.K. Dobbins, but don’t think for a second that Ingram is no longer the guy. If Ingram gets hurt, don’t sleep on Gus Edwards as the next man up initially. He’s done nothing in the past to prove he isn’t capable of being the main two-down back. It will be interesting to see how Justice Hill is utilized if at all. The former third-round athletic phenom didn’t set the world on fire in 2019, but to be fair he was only used sporadically.

Predicting Target Distribution Breakdown

Last year, Lamar Jackson had 401 out of a teams’ 440 total pass attempts; that target distribution broke down like this:

  • Mark Andrews: 98
  • Marquise Brown: 71
  • Willie Snead: 46
  • Nick Boyle: 43
  • Hayden Hurst: 39
  • Seth Roberts: 35
  • Mark Ingram: 29
  • Miles Boykin: 22
  • Justice Hill: 15
  • Patrick Ricard: 11
  • Others: 15

Due to more negative game script, we’ll give the team a total of 500 attempts, with Jackson getting 450 as promised. This is what the target distribution should look like:

  • Marquise Brown: 115 targets, 63, receptions, 934 yards, 7 TDs
  • Mark Andrews: 110 targets, 76 receptions, 782 yards, 6 TDs
  • Willie Snead: 55 targets, 39 receptions, 424 yards, 2 TDs
  • Nick Boyle: 50 targets, 36 receptions, 315 yards, 3 TDs
  • Miles Boykin: 45 targets, 26 receptions, 346 yards, 3 TDs
  • Mark Ingram: 35 targets, 27 receptions, 265 yards, 3 TDs
  • Devin Duvernay: 35 targets, 21 receptions, 279 yards, 3 TDs
  • Other RB targets: 35 targets, 25 receptions, 221 yards, 1 TDs
  • Other: 20 targets, 11 receptions, 136 yards, 0 TDs

Marquise Brown will lead in every category and progress nicely as a sophomore “big play” receiver. He still won’t eclipse 1000 yards however due to volume that is largely spread out. Andrews will take a small step back. With Hurst gone and more eligible decent options at wide receiver, he’ll be less of a slot presence and used more often as a traditional tight end. Snead will begin the year as the main slot receiver, but as time goes on, he’ll start to lose snaps to Duvernay. Boykin takes a nominal step in year two, but does not fully exert himself.

Apart from Brown and Andrews, all of the other receivers get action, but cannibalize each other in terms of fantasy. Ingram is still the main back, but Dobbins starts getting more action near the end of the season, alluding to the possibility that he might be the main focus in 2021. Edwards and Hill remain just change-of-pace, even if Edwards continues to perform adequately and Hill improves on his efficiency.

Ravens
“Big Truss. Woo woo.” -Mark Ingram

Conclusion

Fading two of the most revered players on one of the most exciting teams seems contrarian, but do not be fooled into thinking that the Ravens will dominate like they did in 2019. They’ll be good, but won’t run away with the division.

Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews exceeded their value in 2019 due to supreme efficiency. Therefore, fade Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews even if the rest of the fantasy football community is saying the opposite. Marquise Brown has upside potential and should see the biggest uptick in volume. However, the most intriguing player to have on your team for 2019 might be 30-year old Mark Ingram. This might be his last hurrah as both a starter and as a Raven. Ageism is real, even in redraft. In my opinion Ingram is a screaming value that could help you quietly win your leagues.

Los Angeles Chargers 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Randal Kennedy
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Los Angeles Chargers 2020 Offseason Breakdown

The Los Angeles Chargers’ offseason wasn’t just about replacing franchise stalwart Philip Rivers. They also managed to extend Joey Bosa, draft a future franchise quarterback, and re-tool their offensive line.

Quarterback

The Chargers began 2019 with fringe Super Bowl aspirations, following a 12-4 season in which they returned most everyone. But Philip Rivers had a dreadful campaign. The gunslinger tossed twenty interceptions and suffered a career-low touchdown percentage. The Chargers slumped to 5-11, and most everyone knew we’d seen Rivers in powder blue for the final time.

For most franchises, losing an established quarterback would be cause for a roster makeover, but the Chargers are hoping to rebuild on the fly behind quarterback Tyrod Taylor. And while Taylor isn’t as talented as his predecessor, there are some things he does better. Namely, limiting turnovers and the ability to make plays with his legs.

Between 2015 and 2016, while in Buffalo, (where Chargers Head Coach Anthony Lynn had multiple coaching roles at the time) Taylor threw for a combined 6,058 yards and 37 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions. He tacked on another 1,148 yards and 10 touchdowns with his legs. Taylor isn’t likely to reinvent himself into a must-have fantasy add, but the situation he finds himself in could lead to some fantasy value, especially if he runs the ball consistently.

The Chargers spent the No.6 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft on Oregon product Justin Herbert. While he is clearly the long term solution at QB, he’s expected to sit the year behind Taylor.

Running Back

Philip Rivers wasn’t the only Charger allowed to hit free agency this offseason. Melvin Gordon took his 47 touchdowns to the mile-high air of division rival Denver, leaving the backfield in the seemingly capable hands of Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson. While Gordon feuded with ownership in an ill-fated holdout, Ekeler got off to a hot start in 2019. A start that fueled a full-blown breakout. The Western Colorado product parlayed his 1,550 scrimmage yards and 92 receptions into a 24.5 million dollar contract extension, and watched as the Bolts said goodbye to his former backfield mate.

While capable, it may be difficult for Ekeler to repeat 2019. According to Pro Football Focus, QB Philip Rivers checked the ball down on 8% of his throws. This was three percent higher than the league average. In contrast, expected starter Tyrod Taylor checks the ball down on just 3.3% of his career passing attempts, electing instead to make plays with his legs. There’s also the question of just how much Ekeler will carry the ball. The team added Joshua Kelly in the draft. During the season’s final month, Justin Jackson accounted for 28% of the club’s rush attempts while averaging a staggering 7.8 yards per carry.

Wide Receiver

Wide receiver is perhaps the strongest position group on the team, and superstar Keenan Allen is no doubt the best of the bunch. The talented WR has played in all 48 games the last three years, freeing himself from the injury bug moniker that plagued the first part of his career. While it may take time to build rapport with his new QB, I expect business as usual for Allen, who is one of the best route runners in the league. Able to create separation at will, Allen has averaged 101 receptions and 1,262 yards the last three years.

His running mate, Mike Williams, finally remained relatively healthy in 2019 and seemed to find his footing. As the team’s big play threat, he averaged a league-best 20.4 YPC and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time. Oddly enough, it was the red zone where the big-bodied wideout struggled. Williams crossed the goal line just twice all year. It will be interesting to see just how much the Chargers try and push the ball with Taylor under center. The rookie Justin Herbert would be a much better fit for Williams.

Offensive Line

The offseason shuffle continued along the offensive line. Gone is Russell Okung. He was traded to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for five-time Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner. The front office also shored up the tackle spot by signing coveted free agent Bryan Bulaga. Center Mike Pouncey has also been cleared to return to action. The most important thing with this group is continuity. With no offseason and a truncated camp, it’s imperative that they gel quickly.

As mentioned earlier, the Chargers and standout defensive end Joey Bosa reached an agreement on an extension that not only keeps him in LA for the next several years, but also makes him the highest paid defensive player in the league. The deal also includes a record number of guaranteed money for a defensive player.

With the Chargers preparing to move into the spectacle that is SoFi stadium, they do so clearly looking to reinvent themselves. With a new franchise quarterback and a re-tooled offensive line, all they need now are some fans to appreciate it.

Follow Randal @FF_Terminator and The Undroppables @TheUndroppables for more fantasy football content.

Jack Doyle Rules

Randal Kennedy
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Jack Doyle Rules

Preparation goes beyond the rankings. In a year of social distancing, fantasy football continues to be the tie that binds. It binds old friends and new acquaintances alike. And while our friends reap the rewards of our preparation, we analysts argue over the next breakout. This year, there has been no more hotly-contested topic than the late round tight end. But while everyone is clamoring to be first to the next big thing (I’m looking at you Blake Jarwin), I want to talk about someone who has done it before, and might very well do it again: Jack Doyle.

Trading in his powder blue for something a little more dark, quarterback Philip Rivers packed his bags and headed east. Gone with him are his trademark bolo tie and, most importantly, his affinity for throwing to the tight end. From 2004 to 2019, Rivers targeted his tight end an average of 123 times a season, including a spike of 141 while Frank Reich helmed the offense. If that’s not enough, there have been SIX different times a tight end led the Chargers in targets.

Enter Jack Doyle. While sounding like a hero from the latest Tom Clancy novel, Jack Doyle has already rescued his quarterback in the past with an 80-690-4 line. A line that he parlayed into a Pro Bowl invitation. And while he’s not a flashy player, his knowledge of the position and general football acumen provide him a safe floor.

It’s clear that Doyle knows how to set routes up and beat defenders with their own leverage. Passes to him the previous two seasons have generated a 94.95 QB rating. His pre-snap understanding of coverage is apparent in the way he’s able to find soft spots in zones. And although he’s not known for his YAC ability, the Western Kentucky product is productive after the catch. 32 of his 43 receptions went for either a touchdown or a first down.

With T.Y. Hilton already on the mend, and a depth chart littered with young wide receivers, Doyle, who led the team in targets, could provide a nice familiar feeling for his new quarterback. That might be enough for Doyle to rule in 2020, not unlike the O’Doyles ruled Billy Madison’s hometown back in 1995.

You can follow Randal Kennedy on Twitter, @FF_Terminator.

Over/Under | NFC Schedule Preview 2020

Jax Falcone
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Over/Under | NFC Schedule Preview 2020

Jax Falcone, aka @DynoGameTheory, breaks down each team in his NFC schedule preview, giving you the best Over/Under bets to make on team win totals for 2020.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7
Atlanta Falcons: 8-8
Carolina Panthers: 6-10

Over/Under
Brees and the Saints are a model of consistency.

The New Orleans Saints with Drew Brees at Quarterback are perennially a winner. I don’t see any reason why 2020 won’t be more of the same. They return their version of the triplets (Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara), and add Emanuel Sanders to bolster their weapons. They also drafted a surefire tight end prospect in Adam Trautman to add depth and insurance to a group led by Jared Cook (33 years old). The Saints should be a great team this year, no doubt. Their Vegas win total is 10, so smash the Over, right!? Not so fast… check out this finishing stretch for them in Weeks 9 through 17: at Buccaneers, vs 49ers, vs Falcons, at Broncos, at Falcons, at Eagles, vs Chiefs, vs Vikings, at Panthers. Woof!! I think the Saints a good team, but I would be cautious with their 10 win over/under. It looks like a smash on paper, but there will be attrition this season, and we need to be aware. If I’m betting, I am taking the over, but it may not be as easy as it looks.

The Bet: Over/Under 10 – Stay Away/OVER

Has there been a more intriguing team this offseason than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?! They won 7 games last season with an offense that turned the ball over 41 times and gave up 7 defensive scores. Those numbers are sure to regress, as Tom Brady has averaged 8 INTs per season over his last 8 seasons in the league. Brady has had 14 pick 6’s in 20 years; Jameis had 7 in 2019. This will be a different team for sure. The defense was stout last year, and it should improve for 2020 with additions (and key subtractions) in the secondary. They have copious weapons and solid coaching. Everything has the arrow pointing up. But what does that mean for a win total? Vegas has them at 9.5, and while I project them at 9 wins here, I still wouldn’t want to be holding an ‘under-bet card’ betting against the GOAT. A lot could go wrong and keep them at 9 or less, but if everything goes right, this could be a 12-win team. For that reason, I am staying away from this bet, as it’s too tricky to handicap.

The Bet: Over/Under 9.5 – Stay Away

The Atlanta Falcons led the NFL in pass attempts by a wide margin, as they had 684 attempts in 2019. The Falcons under-achieved in 2019 by only posting 7 wins. They did finish strong however, posting a 6-2 record in their final 8 games, including road wins in New Orleans and San Francisco. While I think they will be good in 2020, I still think they’ll have a tough time getting over .500. Their first two games are vs Seahawks and at Cowboys, but their final 7 games is where I am especially concerned. After their bye, the Falcons finish: at Saints, Raiders, Saints, at Chargers, Bucs, at Chiefs, at Bucs. I like this Falcons team and I think they can get hot and make a run, and if I had to, I would bet the Over, but I am more inclined to stay away here.

The Bet: Over/Under 7.5 – Stay Away/OVER

No team has my attention more than this Panthers team. Their ownership with David Tepper and the hires of Matt Rhule and Joe Brady are very, very intriguing. I think they have the right idea in terms of team-building and philosophy. We’ll see how resolute they can be during trying times. I think they will have trouble winning games again this season. The defense is not good, at best, and it may be awful. The offense is led by Mr. Efficiency Teddy Bridgewater, but he is far from prolific, and they will need to score points in order to remain competitive in a division with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan. Outside of their divisional games, they play the AFC West, the NFC North, the Cardinals, and the Washington Football Team. Not too bad. The Under doesn’t seem like a viable bet, and the Over will be a sweat, but if pushed, that’s the way I’d go.

The Bet: Over/Under 5.5 – Stay Away/OVER

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings: 9-7
Green Bay Packers: 9-7
Detroit Lions: 6-10
Chicago Bears: 5-11

Over/Under
Mike Zimmer after every win when running the ball and playing good defense.

The Vikings have been knocking on the door seemingly every season since Mike Zimmer has taken over as head coach. Side note, can you believe Zimmer has been the Vikings Head Coach since 2014!!?? Gary Kubiak comes in as the Offensive Coordinator, and his teams are always in the top half of the league in rush attempts. This team will be run-first again in 2020. They also addressed some key defensive needs this offseason by drafting cornerback Jeff Gladney, and scooped up tackle Ezra Cleveland just after the Rams inexplicably passed on him for a 24 year old slot receiver. Needless to say, I really like this team and think they are going to win this division. Why only 9 wins then? Check out how their season starts from Week 1 through Week 6, before their much-needed Week 7 bye: Packers, at Colts, Titans, at Texans, at Seahawks, Falcons. A 2-4 or 3-3 start is quite realistic. It doesn’t get too much easier for them in the second half either. Their Win Total Line is right at 9 games, which is where I had them. Definition of a stay away. I think I’d rather bet them to win the division than to bet their win total. At least you can get some better odds there.

The Bet: Over/Under 9 – Stay Away

You could argue that the Green Bay Packers were the ‘luckiest’ team in the league last year. They had an expected win total of 9.7 and ended up 13-3. They were 9-1 in one-score games last year. A lot of that will regress. The Packers also went out and completely whiffed the draft. They added backup skill position players with all of their high-leverage picks. Yikes. It will be Aaron Rodgers’ greatness that will carry them in 2020, and I’m not sure how much passion he has for that considering the Jordan Love draft pick. He admitted that he was expecting one of the wide receivers with that pick,and immediately poured himself a big glass of tequila when the Pack drafted Love. Not great.

The Bet: Over/Under 9 – Stay Away

In 2019, the Lions lost their star QB after he was off to an incredible start – He was on a pace for 5,000 yards and 40 TD passes, as well as a .500 record. After he went down, the Lions scored more than 20 points only once. They had scored more than 20 in 7 of 8 games with Stafford. Vegas has the Lions win total at 6.5, and that’s an excellent number, as I have them at 6 or 7 wins. Their schedule seems pretty fair. They have some tough games, but they have some very winnable games mixed in throughout the year. The should hover around .500 all year. I’d love to bet the over, but the coaching doesn’t inspire any confidence, so I am inclined to stay away.

The Bet: Over/Under 6.5 – Stay Away

My win total projection here was the furthest from the Vegas line (8.5 wins), and I was surprised to learn that you can get juice on the Under (+130). I am slamming the Under. The division is challenging and they play the AFC South and the NFC South in addition to the Giants and Rams. Every Bears fan laments the coaching, and while I don’t think the front office or the coaching staff are above average, the 2019 Bears actually over-achieved their expected win total of 7.4 and finished with 8. I would be shocked if this Bears team got to 9 wins. Give me the UNDER and it’s the bet I feel best about on the entire board.

The Bet: Over/Under 8.5 – UNDER

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: 10-6
Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6
New York Giants: 5-11
Washington Football Team: 5-11

CeeDee Lamb, the newest addition to an already electric Cowboys offense.

The Dallas Cowboys and their fans will no longer have The Clapper to blame for their disappointing finishes. In 2019, the Cowboys had 10.7 expected wins and ended up with only 8 wins, one of the worst ratios in the league. The Cowboys a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and add a luxury pick with CeeDee Lamb on the offensive side of the ball. They are going to move the ball and score points, and they even have a tremendous backup quarterback in Andy Dalton, so their win total bet is insulated against a QB injury. The defense is good and shouldn’t be a liability for them. The schedule includes the AFC North and the NFC West (two tough divisions), but they also get 2 each vs the Giants and the Washington Football Team. The Cowboys two extra games are the Falcons and the Vikings. The schedule isn’t easy, but I really like them to be able to get to 10 wins.

The Bet: Over/Under 9.5 – OVER/Stay Away

The Philadelphia Eagles were my pick to go to the Super Bowl in 2019, and the wheels really fell off. Their defense was above average in terms of personnel, but they had a glaring weakness at cornerback. The added Darius Slay this offseason to bolster a unit that should be a strength in 2020. The offense should be effective again in 2020, however they still have some major questions at the wide receiver position. They drafted Jalen Reagor, a guy I absolutely love, but with Alshon Jeffery on the PUP (and washed), DeSean Jackson being 33 years old, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside being a huge disappointment, a lot is riding on Reagor to contribute right away. I think he can, but there is a question there. The Eagles have the same tough schedule as the Cowboys with their two extra games being the Saints and the Packers. It will be tough for the Eagles to get to 10 wins, but they have the talent to do so.

The Bet: Over/Under 9.5 – Stay Away/OVER

The New York Giants and Daniel Jones made us all look like fools for questioning their reach pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. For me however, the jury is still out. Jones was a turnover machine, and he sometimes looked lost in the pocket. On the bright side, his arm looked lively and he was able to deliver passes down the field, which is what it takes to win at the highest level in this league. With Saquon in the backfield, opponents will always have to pay attention to the running game and passes to the running back. That creates space elsewhere. The Giants appear to have a pretty brutal schedule, as they start with Steelers, at Bears, 49ers, at Rams, at Cowboys, Washington Football Team, at Eagles, Bucs, at Washington Football Team, Eagles, all before their bye week. Other than the games against Washington, they are likely to be underdogs in every game. If you’re a Giants fan, 4-6 would be a huge victory in those 10 games. after the bye, they get a winnable game against the Bengals (on the road though) and then finish at Seahawks, Cards, Browns, at Ravens, Cowboys. My goodness. With an Over/Under of 6.5, they need to get to 7 wins in order to take your money on an Under bet. Sign me up.

The Bet: Over/Under 6.5 – UNDER

The Washington Dysfunctions, or I’m sorry… the Washington Football Team. Are you fucking kidding me!!?? Could there be a more dysfunctional team heading into the start of a football season during the auspice of a pandemic?? The only thing they have going for them is the steadying hand of Ron Rivera. That’s not enough to change my opinion of this team. This mess of a team has to start the season with the Eagles and then go on the road to face the Cardinals and Browns. Follow that up with the Ravens and Rams. Divisional games at Giants, and then they host the Cowboys. Honestly, if they are 2-5 I’ll be impressed. I’m thinking more like 1-6 in those first 7.After their bye week, if you have the Under, you can sweat these games, as they have the Giants, Lions, and Bengals (2 of 3 at home). They better fare well in that stretch, because this is really their finishing schedule – at Cowboys, at Steelers, at 49ers, Seahawks, Panthers, at Eagles. I have them at 5 wins, and that may be a bit aggressive. Take the under and don’t look back. This team has to get to 6 wins to hurt you.

The Bet: Over/Under 5.5 – UNDER

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers: 11-5
Seattle Seahawks: 10-6
Arizona Cardinals: 8-8
Los Angeles Rams: 7-9

Brandon Aiyuk will need to make a big difference quick for the 49ers.

The 49ers are coming off a trip to the Super Bowl and missed being SB Champs by the thinnest of margins. The existence of Super-Human Mahomes is the only thing that could stop them. Now they return for 2020 in great shape – they replace DeForest Buckner with rookie Javon Kinlaw who is an absolute beast. They add wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, and it turns out to be the perfect pick in hindsight, with the subsequent injury to Deebo Samuel. Their schedule is tough, as they play in the best division in the NFL top to bottom. That means 6 of their games are against the Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals. They get the AFC East, which isn’t too bad, as the Pats and Bills aren’t elite and the Dolphins and Jets should be sure wins. Their NFC draw, the NFC East, also has a couple of cupcakes (Giants and Washington), but that also means tough games against the Eagles and Cowboys. Their two extra games are tough, as they get the Saints and Packers. Overall, it’s a tough schedule, and it will be difficult for them to get to 11 wins to pay the Over. At 10.5, there is no way I could bet the Under though. So this is a stay away or an Over bet from my perspective.

The Bet: Over/Under 10.5 – OVER/Stay Away

The Seattle Seahawks are All-In!! They moved two first round picks and more in order to land superstar safety Jamal Adams. Adams is the prototype of the player that’s a key component to the Pete Carroll defensive system. The Seahawks were a bottom defense last season in almost every single category, except turnovers, which are not very sticky from year to year. So, there is actually some regression expected. Enter Jamal Adams with the hopes of stabilizing the D and giving this team a shot in the postseason. The Seahawks schedule is pretty difficult, as they open up at Falcons, Patriots, Cowboys. Tough way to start, considering they still have all 6 division games remaining. But in typical Seahawk fashion, they will finish strong. They get an amazing stretch run, starting in Week 13: Giants, Jets, at Washington Football Team, Rams. Week 17 may be for the division as they go to San Francisco to finish it off. In a pandemic season, bet on the infrastructure, and take Seahawks Over 9 wins. Only 8 wins or less hurts you. In Russell we Trust.

The Bet: Over/Under 9 – OVER

The Arizona Cardinals are everyone’s darlings this year, and rightfully so. Kyler Murray had impressive stats in 2019 and puts himself on a short list in terms of what he accomplished in his rookie season. If you put on the film, it’s even more impressive, as he is able to make throws that very few humans ever could make. He is Good. The defense is still an issue, as they had a hard time stopping the run and the pass. They were second worst in the NFL with 6.0 yards per play surrendered. In order to get to .500, they will need to be better on that side of the ball. They made key investments on that side of the ball, drafting Mr. Everything Isiah Simmons to play LB/S/DE and wreak havoc all over the field. They also drafted two solid DL prospects in the 4th round. If they can slow down opposing offenses, they should be much more competitive in 2020. It’s very reasonable to expect Kyler to take another step forward, especially with the addition of Stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Vegas has the Cards win total at 7.5, and I have been going back and forth on the Cards at 7 or 8 wins in 2020, so for me, they are a Stay Away. But they won’t be a stay away for me on Sunday afternoons, as I will be watching them closely.

The Bet: Over/Under 7.5 – Stay Away

The Rams roster and cap situation has been mismanaged severely over the last few seasons and it may come to roost this year. They chose to draft 24 year-old slot receiver Van Jefferson over a solid OT prospect Ezra Cleveland (who was drafted with the very next pick). Ignoring the offensive line is a major concern, because of the ripple effect it has had and will continue to have. Jared Goff has some of the most drastic ‘pressure/no pressure’ splits in the entire NFL. He’s not a very good ‘off-script’ QB at all. At least they drafted a stud running back who is used to having no one block for him, but still… Their schedule is tough, as the division is competitive, and they open Weeks 1-3 with Cowboys, at Eagles, at Bills. The Rams will be lucky if they can win any of those games. I have them at 7 wins this year, and Vegas has them at 9. I’m not afraid of this team winning 10 games to beat me, so I am slamming the UNDER!!! 9 is a push and 10 sounds like a pipe dream.

The Bet: Over/Under 9 – UNDER

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