Our very own Marc Mathyk, aka @Masterjune70, brings his take on the Pittsburgh Steelers offseason breakdown to the table, with a little more brevity than past breakdowns. Let us know @TheUndroppables on Twitter if you enjoy the alternate format!
Offense: An Overview
The Pittsburgh Steelers were an 8-8 team in 2019 despite having the worst offense in the entire NFL. According to Football Outsiders, they were ranked 32nd in offensive efficiency, having a -25.3% Offensive DVOA. Much of this was due to losing Ben Roethlisberger in the second game of the season and relying on not one, but two rookies to step in and steer the offensive ship. Needless to say, third round pick Mason Rudolph and undrafted free agent Devlin “Duck” Hodges were not adequate replacements. Despite their quarterback play, the Steelers almost made the playoffs because of their defense, which had the third best Defensive DVOA.
But now it’s 2020, and Big Ben is back! Many have the Steelers making the playoffs, and some even have them winning the AFC North (despite having to best the Baltimore Ravens, who were unstoppable last year.) Team aspirations aside, many expect this year’s Steelers to be an offensive juggernaut, which ultimately translates into fantasy football gold.
With Big Ben back we can now expect them to play like they did in 2018. They were the sixth most efficient offense according to DVOA. Roethlisberger made 675 attempts and threw for 5,129 yards. To put that in perspective, 675 attempts is the fourth most of all time and 5,129 passing yards is the seventh most of all time. Incredible. Pittsburgh is going to tear it up again!
Not so fast. It’s not going to happen. And here’s why.
Quarterback & Defense
In Roethlisberger’s 15 year career, he has had many prolific seasons to go along with some pedestrian ones. This isn’t because he’s been Mr. Inconsistent. It’s because of game script. Whenever a team has a top-rated defense, the offense simply does not need to work as hard or as often. It’s that simple.
Roethlisberger has averaged 37. 75 attempts per game when Pittsburgh’s defense has been outside the top ten. That translates to 604 attempts in 16 games. This occurred in 2012 to 2016, and then again in 2018 when he had those record-breaking stats. However, Roethlisberger only averaged 26.45 attempts per game when Pittsburgh had a top three defense. That translates to about 423 attempts in 16 games. This is a difference of 181 attempts. A HUGE difference.
Two years ago, Pittsburgh’s defense had the 13th best DVOA. In 2019 they were third. If anything, their defense is poised to be even better and more dominant in 2020. This is great news for Steelers’ fans, but not so good for those who roster Steelers players in fantasy.
Big Ben reading these splits.
Even last year, Pittsburgh’s bad quarterbacks only made 510 attempts. That’s an average of 30 attempts per game over 17 games. In the first two games of the season, Pittsburgh’s defense was abysmal. They gave up 61 combined points (30.5 per game average) to New England and Seattle. Consequently, Big Ben and Mason Rudolph combined for 81 pass attempts (40.5 average) during those contests. From Weeks 3-17, the Steelers defense was prolific. They gave up an average of 16.1 points even with playing against powerhouses like San Francisco, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Baltimore (twice).
On offense, Rudolph and Hodges averaged 28.6 attempts per game. They completed less than 63% of their passes and averaged less than 6.5 Yards Per Attempt. Excluding Roethlisberger’s brief 2019, he has a career completion rate well over 64% and more importantly, has a career average of 7.8 Yards Per Attempt. A team with a better defense does not need to throw the ball as often. A team with a better, more efficient quarterback also does not need to throw as often.
Wide Receiver & Tight End
During the five seasons in which Pittsburgh had a top three defense, Roethlisberger never had more than 469 attempts. But for argument’s sake, let’s give Roethlisberger the same 510 attempts in 2020. What will the distribution pie look like? JuJu Smith-Schuster is ready to regain his 2018 form. Diontae Johnson is looking to progress from his impressive rookie debut. James Washington is often mentioned as a breakout candidate. They went and invested a second round pick (49th overall) in Chase Claypool. In fact, apart from Santonio Holmes (a first-round pick in 2006), Big Ben has never had a wide receiver as highly drafted as Claypool.
Eric Ebron was another important addition to the Pittsburgh tight end room this off-season. He’ll join Vance MacDonald, who many have soured on, but had 72 targets with Roethlisberger only two seasons ago. A healthy James Conner demands targets. Jaylen Samuels is a natural pass-catching back. Plus, there’s Benny Snell and newly-acquired rookie Anthony McFarland. McFarland was drafted in the fourth round and gives the Steelers a smaller, yet more explosive option at running back.
So, 510 attempts. Where do they all go? Let’s make a prediction model and break it down:
JuJu Smith-Schuster – 120 targets (had 166 two years ago)
Diontae Johnson – 92 targets (last year’s total)
James Washington/Chase Claypool – 80 targets (Washington’s total last season)
Eric Ebron – 70 targets
Vance McDonald – 30 targets
A healthy James Conner – 70 targets
Other RBs – 35 targets
Others – 13 targets
Juju praying for more than 120 targets in 2020.
If the above distribution is the case, JuJu will improve upon his disastrous 2019 season, but will not come close to his 2018 breakout. Johnson will have a solid yet unspectacular sophomore campaign, showing zero growth. Washington will not breakout. Claypool will most likely be viewed similarly to Parris Campbell and Andy Isabella after their 2019 rookie seasons. Eric Ebron will be a low-end TE1 at best. McDonald won’t be on redraft rosters and will be dropped in dynasty. Conner would benefit the most out of any Steeler if he can remain healthy. If he doesn’t, then it will be a messy running back-by-committee.
That’s with a generous 510 attempts. Even if you disagree with the distribution, 510 is a number that evaporates very quickly. Any way you slice it, that’s your Pittsburgh Steelers offensive breakout for 2020. Unless they can replicate the offensive efficiency of the 2019 Baltimore Ravens, look for Big Ben and company to be average at best, even if the talent in Pittsburgh would say otherwise.
In reality, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a great team on both sides of the ball. Barring injuries to significant players, they should win at least 10 games, make the playoffs, and perhaps win their division. However, regarding fantasy, fade everyone on their offense including Roethlisberger. Not because any of them are bad, but because their defense is that good.
The Dallas Cowboys offseason has been one headline after another. After another 8-8 record, Jerry Jones and company FINALLY took care of business and removed the serial clapper, Jason Garrett. In comes former Super Bowl-winning head coach Mike McCarthy and several other coaching changes. The Cowboys also made sure to solidify the offense that made them one of the best in 2019. They started with Blake Jarwin, in a seemingly under-the-radar deal for the 4th-year tight end. As free agency loomed, the most significant question marks came on contract negotiations for Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper. Cooper would inevitably sign a five-year $100 million deal, and Dak would get assigned the franchise tag for $31.4 million. Outside of locking up core free agents, the Cowboys made improvements to their defense with Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, Aldon Smith, and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The 2019 offseason wasn’t all acquisitions, as several long-time Cowboys departed for other pastures. Future Hall of Fame Tight End Jason Witten and veteran Safety Jeff Heath went to Las Vegas, while Pro Bowl Center Travis Frederick announced his retirement. Each decision made, whether to the coaching staff or personnel, will have some significant impacts on the 2020 season. In this Dallas Cowboys Preview, Let’s take a look at each key player’s fantasy value in 2020.
Offense: An Overview
On paper, the Cowboys are one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. In 2019, Dallas gained nearly 1400 more yards and scored 13 more touchdowns compared to 2018. After ranking 1st in total yards by almost 400 and scoring the 5th most points in the NFL, the Cowboys remain nearly intact a year later. From a personnel perspective, the Cowboys had seven players ranked inside the top 50 at their respective positions: Dak; QB2, Zeke; RB3, Cooper; WR10, Gallup; WR23, Cobb; WR42, Witten; TE11, Jarwin; TE39. As the Cowboys went through scouting for the draft, no one in the world pegged them for targeting offense. However, the Cowboys made their attack even more potent with the selection of CeeDee Lamb with the 17th overall pick. With a new coaching staff, returning veterans, shiny new toys, and 160+ vacated targets to spread around, the Cowboys offense should reach elite levels for the 2nd time in as many years.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott has undeniable talent. But questions remain as to whether or not he can lead the Cowboys to the Super Bowl. 2019 was his best season yet with career highs in yards and touchdowns. He also saw significant bumps in his average depth of target and the average depth of completion. The biggest knock on Dak through the first four years of his career has been consistency. Against two NFC East teams (Giants and Redskins), he is 13-3 with an impressive 7.5:1 TD ratio, 254.2 yards per game, and a QB Rating over 105. However, in 48 games not against the New York and Washington, Dak has an unimpressive 56% winning percentage with 10 yards less per game and a QB rating under 95. Another negative is on Dak’s ability to continue drives. Despite the Cowboys ranking 2nd in 3rd down conversion percentage, Dak dropped nearly 7 points in completion % between 1st & 2nd downs and 3rd down. Now with Mike McCarthy, Dak should be able to fix some of the inefficiencies we saw a year ago. Dak is currently the 5th QB taken off the board in SuperFlex Startups so far this year.
Dak warming up and instantaneously becoming a meme.
Andy Dalton
The Red Rocket didn’t take long to find a new home in 2020. Shortly after being released by Cincinnati, Dalton signed a $3 million contract with the Cowboys. If Dak chooses to sit at all or gets injured, the Cowboys don’t seem to miss a lot by having Dalton under center. Through the first four years of each QB’s career, they are nearly identical in numbers despite talent discrepancies. Through their first 48 games, Dak is 40-24 to Dalton’s 40-23-1. Dalton had 1,200 fewer yards but had more TDs, and their completion percentage was nearly identical. Dalton would be stepping into a similar situation if he gets the nod and should provide substantial value to any fantasy team.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott
A pinnacle of consistency, Ezekiel Elliott has been a top 5 fantasy running back in three of his four NFL seasons. The only season not to have reached the top 5 was in 2017 when he missed six games due to a suspension. In that year, he still finished 8th overall according to NFL.com PPR scoring. In 2019, Zeke finished as the RB3 behind, Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones. Zeke had more rushing yards and receptions than Jones and only 30 fewer rushing yards than CMC. Zeke took a hit in the TD department compared to Jones and McCaffrey. However, despite rushing for the 4th most yards in 2019, he ranked 23rd in yards per touch. Once known for his explosiveness, Elliott took a step back in this department last year as well. Compared to 2018, where he ranked 1st in breakaway runs (15 or more yards), Zeke was 9th in this category last season. We also saw a fairly decent drop off in his yards created going from 3rd in 2018 to 11th a year later. The loss of Travis Frederick could play a significant role in 2020. However, one of Zeke’s best years came with Joe Looney controlling the offensive line. Zeke is being drafted third behind McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley so far in drafts. With room to get even better, he could easily warrant RB1 status.
Tony Pollard
You aren’t going to find a ton of expectations for the backup halfback when looking at the Cowboys roster. Any time you are the guy billed to back up an uber-talent like Elliott you won’t be for much. However, when Pollard stepped on the field, he showed what he was capable of doing. Excellent addition to best-ball leagues, Pollard had the 3rd-most rushing yards per carry among runners with at least 75 attempts (5.29). He also added 15 catches for 107 yards and a score. Pollard’s speed and quickness are a significant change of pace for Zeke’s patience and agility. With it, the Cowboys can rely on someone to take some of the workload off Elliott. Despite Pollard’s limited action, he was 8th in Yards per Touch, 9th in breakaway run %, and 5th in yards created per touch. Pollard had two games of over 100 yards and a touchdown, making him an excellent stash in dynasty and best-ball leagues. And for those looking to handcuff the 3rd overall pick in redrafts, Pollard is a must-have. According to FFPC ADP, Pollard is the 128th player off the board in recent drafts.
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper
Cooper is the #1 WR the Cowboys have been looking for ever since Dez Bryant. After successful seasons in Oakland, the Cowboys traded their 2019 first-round pick for the former Alabama receiver. Since stepping on the field, Cooper has been the go-to-guy in the Dallas offense. Turning around a once-dormant attack into one of the leagues best. Cooper finished 2019 with 79 receptions (15th), 1,189 yards (7th), and eight touchdowns (T-4th). Cooper was also very efficient when on the field. Of players with at least 100 targets, he was 9th in average depth of target, 3rd in yards per target, and 7th in yards per reception. What’s even more impressive is that he did all of this with one of the league’s worst cushion rates (3.79 yards; 77th). However, despite seeing tighter coverage, Cooper generated nearly 2 yards of separation per target on average. Which ranked 38th in the league. Although he finished as WR10 a year ago, he is currently being drafted as WR13. With other targets to go around, and an offense known for its efficiency through the air, Cooper could easily beat his ADP.
Cooper celebrating a Touchdown.
Michael Gallup
Gallup had the opposite of a sophomore slump, exploding onto the scene in 2019. After a pedestrian rookie season, Gallup proved he was worth the hype coming into the league. The former Colorado St wide out produced 2x more receptions and yards and 3x more touchdowns in 2019 than the year prior. The increase in opportunity had massive effects on the 2nd year pass catcher, jumping 54 spots from WR77 to WR23. Gallup was impressive last year, finishing 12th in yards per target despite being 28th in average target distance. Despite scoring 212.7 PPR fantasy points, Gallup led the league in dropped passes with 11. Gallup is a steal right now in the 7th round with WR33 ADP so far this offseason.
CeeDee Lamb
The surprise pick of the draft, Cedarian Lamb, is the perfect piece for this Cowboys offense. CeeDee Lamb is an absolute stud after being one of the Biletnikoff Finalists a year ago. At 6’2″, 185 lbs, Lamb is a motor that just won’t quit. In his last two years, he averaged 3.42 yards per route run and 9.2 yards after the catch (per reception) while forcing 38 missed tackles. When targeted, OU QBs had a near-perfect passer rating at 146.5. Lamb is an ideal addition to the Cowboys offense that should see a reasonably significant uptick in 3 and 4 WR sets. From 2016 through Week 13 of 2018, Mike McCarthy-led attacks ran 76% of their formations in 3, 4 & 5 WR sets. The Cowboys also lost more than 160 targets with the departures of Jason Witten and Randall Cobb. With a definite increase in opportunity and a significant target gap to fill, Lamb should CRUSH his current 106 ADP. #BOOMER
Tight Ends
Blake Jarwin
Blake Jarwin was one of the most efficient tight ends in football in 2019. He was an excellent pass blocker, and ranked top 10 in yards per reception, yards per route run, and catch rate. Despite being so efficient, he failed to produce as the number of opportunities didn’t come his way. With Jason Witten making a return in 2019, Jarwin only saw 43 targets, which he turned into 365 yards and three touchdowns. With the new regime, the loss of Witten, and other opportunities sure to be available in the Cowboys offense, we should finally see the Jarwin star shine bright. The one area we need to keep an eye on will be his ability to run block. Despite being one of the league’s best pass blockers by PFF ranking (18th), Jarwin was nearly terrible in run blocking. However, where Blake failed, Dalton Schultz excelled, ranking as the 8th best run-blocking TE, according to PFF. If Jarwin can’t figure out his blocking woes, he may miss some time and give Schultz more opportunity.
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The greatest NFL dynasty we may have ever seen took a big hit this offseason. The Patriots lost their leader at the helm (at least on the field) when six-time Super Bowl winning QB Tom Brady departed the New England area for Tampa, Florida. Now Head Coach Bill Belichick will be truly tested on putting together a winner without his quarterback who is referred to as the greatest of all time by many. Yet Brady wasn’t the only loss on the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots also lost Phillip Dorsett, James Develin, and some pieces on the offensive line, including their starting center Ted Karras, who left for South Beach with Belichick protege Brian Flores. All of that being said, Robert Kraft didn’t leave Belichick high and dry. The Patriots brought in former MVP Cam Newton on a risk-free deal, as well as drafting two tight ends in the 3rd round of the 2020 draft. With no major additions to the Patriots skill positions and an extremely shortened offseason with a new QB at the helm, I find it hard to believe that the Patriots can actually compete for another world championship in 2020.
Offense: An Overview
With the wide receiver room staying relatively untouched, the Patriots will need major strides from guys like N’Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers, and Mohammed Sanu entering their second year within the system. Hopefully having a healthy Cam Newton (who adds mobility the Patriots haven’t seen at the QB position in 20 years) will open up a whole new world in McDaniels’ offensive playbook. That being said, the Patriots system is known for taking multiple years to perfect, and Newton has only signed a one-year deal, which leads us to ask: will Stidham get playing time? Will the Patriots sign Newton to a longer deal if he stays healthy? How will Patriots players fare in fantasy in the year 2020? My thoughts on the latter below!
Quarterback
Cam Newton
Newton brings a rushing element to the Patriots they haven’t had at QB in the last 20 years. That alone may allow him to be a value in redraft formats, but the shortened offseason may put a delay on claiming the job for Week 1. Also, as our Undroppables in-house doc, Adam Hutchison has pointed out, the shoulder could still be a concern later on in the season barring the number of pass attempts and is something to keep an eye on (Twitter thread below). Overall, Newton could provide high upside with his rushing ability in the red-zone within this new system, but there is a lot of risk baked in as well. For redraft, I think he is a great streaming option once we have seen him integrated into the system. On the dynasty side of things he may be a good cheap buy if Stidham does indeed start the season, but be aware that the risks he holds could see him out of fantasy relevance as well after 2020, so don’t overpay.
I have been doing a lot of reading today because I am interested in my profession and improving my clinical approach, but I can’t help sometimes to read something and relate it to fantasy football. pic.twitter.com/gKxx86tFLD
— Adam Hutchison PT, DPT (@TheRealAdam_H) July 21, 2020
Jarrett Stidham
Jarrett Stidham could very well be the future of this Patriots organization long term, but seeing as they brought in Cam Newton, I wouldn’t be so quick to dub him the next generation quite yet. The 2019 4th round selection from Auburn showed flashes of brilliance during the preseason, but his time was nearly non-existent during the season thanks to Tom Brady. Although Stidham is a solid handcuff in dynasty and superflex leagues, I do not anticipate he will start the lion’s share of games in 2020. Due to the shortened offseason, I do think it’s likely he will be the starter Week 1 as Newton gets more familiar with the system. If you currently have him on your roster, maybe hold to see his production early. From that point you may be able to trade for higher value upon any big moments early in the season or hold for longevity.
New England QB Jarrett Stidham (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Brian Hoyer
Brian Hoyer is nothing more than a cheaper insurance policy for this Patriots team. At age 34, Hoyer has only ever started more than 10 games in 1 of his 11 years playing professionally. Hoyer knows the system having played for the Patriots in 2017 & 2018. I wouldn’t expect any fantasy relevance from the #3 QB on the team.
Running Back
Sony Michel
Sony Michel is one running back that is extremely difficult to predict for fantasy purposes. Michel saw the 9th most carries of all running backs in the league and 10th best red zone opportunities, but it didn’t generate much success on the field. Michel had 6 weeks within the top 24 with two finishes being as an RB1 (Weeks 5 & 7). The positives for Michel end there. Michel was 12th among running backs in drops, likely pushing him further away from any pass game relevancy. Furthermore, Michel scored 7 TDs but 3 of these came from one single game. Most of his contributions were minimal outside of that game. Michel also had a very average 3.6 true yards per carry, which could use improvement. Now add in the fact that Belichick has had a tendency to use a committee approach, and Sony’s late-round ADP becomes no surprise. If your running back position is looking sparse in redraft or startup, then feel free to take a shot and hope for the best. I expect James White to continue to have the most relevance on the field and Damien Harris could eat into some of Michel’s snaps if his efficiency continues to be poor. In dynasty, he is not a player I would go out of my way to trade for as his price isn’t easy to determine and isn’t worth giving much up for.
James White
White continues to be a solid flex option in PPR formats of fantasy football. In 2019 White saw the 6th most targets, 6th most receptions, and 3rd most receiving yards among running backs. This trend will likely continue in 2020 even with the departure of Tom Brady. Brady has been known to check it down to the running back in recent years, giving White heavy value. Cam Newton has been known to do this same thing as well. If Stidham ends up winning the starting quarterback job, he is also likely to use the running back in the pass game as well, being a less developed passer with no starting experience. No matter what, White is still an efficient flex play within McDaniels’ system. In redraft he is a great depth piece and likely the back to own from New England. In dynasty formats I would likely look to trade him to a contender for some draft capital, as he wont help a middling or rebuilding team much at all. That paired with his age make this the time to send him to a contender if possible. If you are still playing in a format where there is no PPR scoring at all, then don’t bother adding White to your roster.
Rex Burkhead
Burkhead is a name in fantasy that should fade into oblivion in the near future, so I wouldn’t use a roster spot on this aging veteran. Burkhead put up 4 games in the top 24 last year with 2 of the 4 coming in Weeks 15 & 16 solely from red-zone work. Burkhead only saw more than 30% of snaps in 4 total games and also missed some time with an injury for the 4th year in a row. All of this to say, Burkhead is not worth the risk and will likely never make it into your lineup or even consideration set, so don’t waste the spot.
Damien Harris
Harris only saw a total of 4 carries during his rookie year, but that could improve during the 2020 season. Due to the current QB battle, Burkhead’s restructured contract, and Sony’s lack of efficiency, I fully expect Harris to get more opportunities on the field. The production he puts forth will likely determine if the looks continue. Harris is the one RB I would take a shot on outside of White in this offense. He is a cheap grab in all formats and is a relatively risk-free lottery ticket if he does make the most of his opportunities. Harris managed to hold off and outproduce Josh Jacobs in all 3 of their years together at Alabama. With another year in the Belichick system, I fully expect this former college stud to see more opportunity. See if you can buy him cheap in dynasty and grab him as one of your last picks in redraft. Low risk for a potential high reward.
Wide Receiver
Julian Edelman
Julian Edelman’s production is likely to fall with Tom Brady leaving town. Therefore, his upside is likely capped, but he could still prove to be a valuable PPR flex play no matter who wins the job at QB. Edelman is a solid slot receiver who is likely still the # 1 WR in New England. In 2019, Edelman was 3rd in targets, 4th in receptions, 5th in red zone receptions and 18th in yards after catch among all wide receivers. This shows me he still has the opportunity, but these numbers were likely due to Brady’s trust as well. I anticipate some regression, but he will remain a great flex play on contending teams and in redraft formats. The main cause for concern here is that Edelman was 6th among all wide receivers in drops for each of the past two seasons. That was with the 13th most “catchable targets” within the league. Those catchable targets are likely to fall no matter who wins the QB job, so I would definitely prepare for some regression with this veteran wide out.
N’Keal Harry
N’Keal Harry may hold the most upside on this entire roster in dynasty formats. Belichick has preached his high hopes for the young prospect, whom Bill made as his first wide receiver selected in Round 1 of the NFL Draft during his entire tenure with the Patriots. Harry started his rookie season hampered by injuries, but saw some success in his limited action toward the end of the year by scoring 2 TDs. His current ADP in dynasty formats as of July is WR43, which is fairly cheap for a 1st round rookie heading into his second season. His best comparable receiver on PlayerProfiler.com based on metrics is Allen Robinson, who also had a slower start as a rookie but broke out in year 2. If you can get him for a fair price I would definitely take the risk, because the Patriots clearly have plans for him as a key building piece of the offense. Furthermore, Harry is known for his ability to do well in contested catch scenarios, which pairs well with his predicted new quarterback Cam Newton, especially in the red zone. 2020 and 2021 will likely be key years for Harry. I like him as a prospect and trust in what Belichick sees. For redraft formats he falls even lower in ADP, so feel free to take a shot late hoping for the second-year breakout.
N’Keal Harry 2019 Patriots Practice (The Boston Globe/Globe Staff)
Mohamed Sanu
The value Sanu brings to the Patriots wide receiver room is much greater than the one he will bring to your fantasy roster. Sanu is a great veteran presence but this offense is not as pass happy as the one he had in Atlanta where he was a flex play at best. I anticipate that Sanu will serve as the #2 or #3 WR of this New England offense, which won’t do a lot for your fantasy team. Sanu has finished well outside of the top 24 in most wide receiver categories each of the past two seasons, and I don’t expect him to get any better for fantasy purposes. I would avoid in both redraft and dynasty as there are much better options with higher upside.
Marqise Lee
The oft-injured Marqise Lee has signed in New England but is likely to still be on the roster bubble. With no preseason to help his case, I wouldn’t invest in this player at all since he would likely be the fifth or sixth wide receiver on the roster in the first place. Avoid in all formats.
Jakobi Meyers
Meyers is an interesting stash in dynasty leagues in the case that Stidham ends up winning the job. Stidham and Jakobi showed great chemistry during the preseason in 2019 which led to Meyers posting 20 receptions for 253 yards and 2 TDs. This preseason showing led to Meyers earning some actual work during the regular season, but Jakobi didn’t have that same trust and chemistry with Brady as he had shown with Stidham. The 2019 undrafted free agent did manage to see the field in 11 games and post 26 receptions. Jakobi isn’t a redraft play by any means, but could be a solid dynasty hold in the case Stidham does win the job due to their chemistry on the field.
Tight End
Matt LaCosse
LaCosse will not be a major player for the New England Patriots. In 2019 he was made the #2 TE rather quickly for the unretired Ben Watson who outproduced LaCosse in fewer games. Both tight ends combined only saw a total of 43 targets all season. I wouldn’t use a pick on LaCosse in any format.
Devin Asiasi
The first of two tight ends New England selected in the 3rd round, Asiasi is nothing more than a dynasty or taxi stash in fantasy football. Of the two prospects, I believe Asiasi shows more natural ability in the pass game and has the upside after seeing his production with UCLA in the 2019 season. UCLA actually wanted Asiasi to return in 2020 with plans to incorporate him more. With no preseason in 2020, the young tight ends’ roles and snap percentages will be something to monitor in 2020 to help determine which holds more value and opportunity as this offense starts to rebuild.
Dalton Keene
The second of two tight ends New England selected in the 3rd round, Keene was selected 10 picks later. He is solely a taxi stash in dynasty leagues. Again, with no preseason in 2020, the young tight ends’ roles and snaps will be something to monitor in 2020 to help determine which rookie holds more value.
Final Thoughts
The 2020 Patriots team is not one I would want to be starting a lot of players from. With the complexity of the playbook, I expect both Newton & Stidham to play and have their ups and downs. Belichick is nearly always unpredictable with his running back committees. Outside of Edelman, the pass catchers are fairly new and I don’t expect major production. This Patriots roster may have some valuable dynasty stashes, but don’t expect much certain redraft value in New England besides some late round fliers. Belichick’s team will remain defensively led, so they may compete in the NFL, but probably not so much in fantasy.
I know it, you know it, Duval County knows it. The Jacksonville Jaguars are not expected to be good in 2020. According to Action Network, the Jaguars have the lowest projected win total in the NFL among betting circles at 5 wins. By trading superstar Jalen Ramsey to the LA Rams in the middle of last season and making offseason moves to send Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye out of Jacksonville, the Jaguars defense has become a younger shell of its former self.
Offensively, Jaguars brass axed the Foles-DeFilippo Experience in short order after discovering an unexpected diamond in the rough, Gardner Minshew II. They also reportedly made attempts to move on from fourth overall draft pick Leonard Fournette via trade, but to no avail. While they’ve brought in an experienced offensive mind in Jay Gruden as the new offensive coordinator, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the entirety of the Jaguars organization. What can we actually project and trust for Fantasy Football purposes for this team in 2020?
Offense: An Overview
To start, here’s a list of the Jaguars players I think are names to know, but are undraftable in most redraft leagues and deep-bench holds (not targets) in dynasty:
Wide Receiver Dede Westbrook: The 4th-year wide receiver has even less of a chance to break out with two rookie additions to the team, but maybe he can beat out Laviska Shenault to be the #2 receiving option.
Wide Receiver Chris Conley: While he and Westbrook are both starters on the current depth chart, Conley actually produced fewer receptions and yards than Westbrook last year.
Wide Receiver Keelan Cole: The Jaguars re-signed Cole to a one-year, $3.26 million contract. Cole has shown flashes in the smallest way possible and is a backup on the depth chart.
Wide Receiver Collin Johnson: The fifth round draft pick has little potential for 2020, but at 6′ 6″ and 222 lbs, has some upside to secure a role in the offense down the line.
Tight End Tyler Eifert: The Jaguars signed Eifert to a two-year, $9.5 million deal. Jay Gruden has experience working with injury prone tight ends. So, Eifert’s got that going for him.
Tight End Josh Oliver: Oliver was an early third-round draft pick (#69 overall) in 2019, but only caught 3 passes for 15 yards in his rookie year. He is THE definition of a lottery ticket.
Gardner Minshew II
“In Minshew we trust” was the mantra of many Jags fans upon the announcement of Nick Foles’ long term absence from the starting lineup. The mustachioed messiah Gardner Minshew was nothing but a sixth round draft pick before the start of the 2019 season, but the first page of his legend unfolded right before our eyes. Despite the aura of Minshew, we can’t objectively look at his 2019 season and draft him any earlier than the double digital rounds in redraft. Minshew finished as the QB18 in fantasy points per game and is being ranked as QB23 per FantasyPros expert consensus rankings (ECR).
Minshew is an exciting sleeper candidate for his ability to climb the pocket, escape from the clutches of hungry pass rushers, and make throws after the play breaks down. His upside to throw more, improve on his completion percentage, and gain fantasy points with his legs make him a spicy option in SuperFlex/2QB redraft leagues. I have Minshew on a couple of my dynasty rosters, so make no mistake that I am rooting for the underdog story to continue.
Leonard Fournette
Leonard Fournette is a fringe RB1 in 2020 and should be treated as nothing less. If you’re snagging him in the third round of your August drafts, feel good about it! Sure, his receiving numbers will regress from the 100 targets and 76 receptions he saw in 2019, (due to the presence of Chris Thompson) but Fournette has committed to working his ass off no matter what team he’s on, and his touchdown numbers should regress positively from 2019 when he only achieved 3 TDs on 300+ touches and 1,600+ yards. If anything about Fournette’s injury history scares you, refer to The Undroppables former resident medical expert, Edwin Porras, DPT, below.
Heard @Fantasy_Mansion talk about C. Thompson and Fournette Im @Fitz_FF pod. Couldn't agree more * Fournette is 25 and successfully rehab'd ankle injuries (none since 2017) * Thompson is 29 (his missed games in pic on left)
As mentioned above, Chris Thompson may take away some receiving work from Fournette, but he’s no spring chicken himself. Multiple injuries throughout his career and being on the cusp of 30 is more than enough to cancel out his history with new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. Ryquell Armstead is a name to know due to his youth, but Thompson is already listed on the depth chart above Armstead, so it’s hard to say he holds any value outside of being an injury-based handcuff.
D.J. Chark
D.J. Chark burst onto the scene last year, (with Minshew as his primary passer no less) compiling over 1,000 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns in his second season in the NFL. His ADP hovers in the middle rounds (early-5th on Fantasy Football Calculator, Half-PPR), but Chark has the makings of an even bigger breakout and is a value in current drafts. Most people project the Jaguars to throw more in 2020, and Chark is THE guy for Minshew to target in the passing game. I could easily see an uptick in aggregate targets for the team and target share for Chark specifically, meaning he could eat just as much as Fournette does this season.
With Minshew throwing to Chark regularly during his time on the field, there’s a definite connection there that can continue to blossom in 2020. Let’s not forget: Chark is going into his third year in the NFL, so he checks that Fantasy Football trope box as well. Chark profiles as a high-upside WR2, and I’d be willing to take shot on him if I’m going heavy on wide receiver in my redraft leagues. As for dynasty, Chark is a player to hold or buy now before his value (potentially) skyrockets.
If any receiver has chemistry with Minshew, it’s Chark.
Laviska Shenault
Laviska Shenault is the ‘shiny new toy’ for Jay Gruden and Gardner Minshew to work with in Jacksonville. He’s a playmaker out of Colorado who can do it all over the field. His talent and success at the collegiate level was validated in the 2020 NFL Draft, when the Jaguars selected him with a second round pick. While Shenault underwent core surgery for a looming injury in early March, expect the 6’1″, 227-pound wide receiver to be ready to go for camp and to make an impact in this offense immediately. He could easily shine on the field and become the #2 receiving option for this team; if he’s as talented as he’s scouted out to be, he’ll earn the opportunity.
Despite my comfort with most Jaguars’ current ADP in redraft, I still have some trepidation toward Jacksonville’s offense for fantasy football purposes going into 2020. While being behind more often can lead to more pass attempts, it’s not always an indicator of more fantasy points. Each of the players I dove deep on are startable in the right scenario, but it’s important to be flexible and play matchups accordingly as we learn more throughout the season. This is especially important when a below average team (like the Jaguars) will be facing a strong opponent.
Six short months ago, the Tennessee Titans went 2 for 3 in a commendable playoff run, defeating the Patriots dynasty in the Wild Card round and upsetting the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens. The game is something I’ll weirdly remember as fan-level revenge for the upset Baltimore pulled on Tennessee during their 2008 13-3 season, (led by Kerry Collins of all people) but more importantly for 2020 it will be known as the game that proved establishing the run, good defense, and a dash of trickery can beat any team. Well, any team other than the Kansas City Chiefs, that is.
Despite coming back to Nashville without hardware, the Titans look to run it back in 2020 with the same throwback gameplan and a near-identical roster. After showing off a seemingly unsustainable rate of efficiency in 2019, what should redraft fantasy managers expect for this season?
Offense: An Overview
The Titans offseason, like most of their offseasons, remained largely uneventful outside of retaining their key playmakers. They agreed to a four-year, $118 million extension with Ryan Tannehill and, as of Wednesday, July 15th, signed Derrick Henry to a reported four-year, $50 million deal, maintaining continuity in the roster for the foreseeable future. To supplement Henry, the Titans selected rookie running back Darrynton Evans out of Appalachian State in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
As for the offensive line, the Titans lost Jack Conklin to the Cleveland Browns for a three-year, $42 million deal. Fortunately, they were able to re-sign tackle Dennis Kelly to a three-year contract, and they reloaded at the position by taking Isaiah Wilson, a tackle out of Georgia, in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Wilson may jump right into starting work given his youth and talent, while Kelly should be more-than-serviceable swing tackle/depth piece for the team.
Lastly, the Titans waived 35 year-old veteran tight end Delanie Walker from the roster in March, leaving potential breakout Jonnu Smith as the #1 tight end on the Titans depth chart. The Titans also opted to not sign wide receiver Tajae Sharpe or running back Dion Lewis back to the team. Between these three former Titans, 98 targets have been vacated from the offense, which can be allocated to other players on the team in projections.
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill was the savior the Titans needed last year to escape from Marcus Mariota’s middling-at-best play and get a shot at the playoffs. His efficiency as a passer could not have been better. To put it in perspective, Tannehill’s touchdown percentage on pass attempts (7.7%) and his yards per attempt (9.6) were both higher than Matt Ryan’s 2016 MVP season stats (7.1 TD% and 9.3 YPA, respectively.)
Tannehill’s efficiency is primed for regression, and this is factored into his rankings (QB16) and ADP. As such, I would only consider Tannehill as an option to begin the season in Superflex and 2QB leagues. If he continues to show hyper-efficiency in the early part of the season, I would consider picking him up off the waiver wire for the upside.
Running Back
Derrick Henry
There’s not much to say here other than Henry is a towering, stiff-arming, gridiron Goliath that the Titans have chosen to center their offense around over anyone else. Fantasy Football success comes from a combination of talent and opportunity, and Henry clearly has both. The majority of the public agrees that Derrick Henry is, for lack of better words, “Just That Good.” From polls that I ran on Twitter and had retweeted by MyFantasyLeague to expand the sample size, Henry falls in between the following players:
Dalvin Cook
Joe Mixon
Derrick Henry
Miles Sanders
Kenyan Drake
Austin Ekeler
The public has Henry pegged as the RB7 in 2020 PPR redraft leagues, and despite the receiving upside of Sanders/Drake/Ekeler, you should be comfortable drafting Henry here. I would not value Henry nearly as high in Dynasty, simply because he could be on another team in two years (given his contract structure.)
Click on the tweet below to see the full thread of polls.
The Titans’ third round draft pick has been brought in to be a complementary piece that has the versatility necessary to lighten a portion of the load for Henry. Evans has 96th percentile speed according to PlayerProfiler.com and chalked up 5 touchdowns on 21 receptions in his final year at Appalachian State, so I see Evans as the replacement to Dion Lewis with upside for even more receiving work. Should anything happen to Derrick Henry injury-wise, Evans would become a must-have on redraft rosters. Also, for what it’s worth, Blake Hampton published a predictive model for rookie running backs on our site, and in that model Evans is projected to outscore the likes of Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Zack Moss over the first three seasons of their respective careers.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown
I’ve written about fading A.J Brown before on our site, and I’ll say it again here: The efficiency in the Titans’ passing game is set to regress, and that could have a material affect on Brown’s own efficiency and production in the offense. Brown should see a full complement of targets going into his second year, but he’ll also draw top corners from opposing defenses. I expect to see a good amount of weekly WR1 performances, but I won’t be surprised if he gets shut down from time to time, or the Titans don’t need to use him heavily certain weeks to win. He’s a true boom-bust prospect in my book.
Corey Davis
Corey Davis truthers (myself included) have held on far too long to the potential of a Top-5 NFL draft pick. After finishing as a Top-30 wide receiver in 2018 and being touted as a bit of a sleeper going into 2019, Davis did nothing to impress in 2019. He finished the year with an underwhelming 43 receptions, 601 yards, and 2 TDs. Specifically because of Tennessee’s tendency to run the ball, I can’t in good conscience recommend drafting Davis in redraft. There are other #3 wide receivers in places like Atlanta that should see better production than Davis this year, simply because the team throws more. If I’m in Dynasty, I would probably hold Davis in case he unlocks his potential late a la DeVante Parker for an 8-game stretch, otherwise I would try to flip him for a future third- or second-round pick where you can take a shot on an overlooked rookie wide receiver.
Adam Humphries
It’s always difficult for wide receivers to transition from one team to another. This transition could not have gone worse for Adam Humphries. After piling up 76 receptions, 816 yards, and 5 touchdowns in his last season in Tampa Bay, Humphries became another cog in the Titans’ run-first offense and only managed 37 receptions for 374 yards and 2 touchdowns. Humphries is a mega-deep stash in dynasty formats (maybe if his situation changes he can be a flex?) and is undraftable in 2020 redraft leagues.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith
Smith flashed in multiple ways last year on limited volume, and it’s those highlights along with stellarmetrics that have many a fantasy draftnik identifying Smith as a breakout candidate for 2020. From my time watching the Titans play last year, I’d say Smith is easily the second-best pass catching option on the team.
I mean, just look at him. The man is READY to PLAY:
This immediately reminds me of the Darren Waller Hard Knocks footage from last year. https://t.co/wIOwXjhlVe
Smith’s 12th-round ADP has stabilized over the past couple months, meaning he should remain a solid sleeper target in your 2020 drafts. I would not, however, rely on him as the only tight end on my roster in redraft or dynasty, in case he does not see the target volume we expect to see from a typical TE1.
Our own Vivek Iyer details the potential for Smith’s breakout further in the Twitter thread below:
Jonnu Smith – A Thread. Who: Starting TE for the Tennessee Titans What: A low-end TE 1 in 2020 Why: Opportunity, Athleticism. Continued Below ↓@TheUndroppables
Firkser is the backup tight end to Jonnu Smith. At age 25, he has been in the league for two years, but has not seen much opportunity as of yet. The reason I bring him up here is because he caught two touchdowns in three postseason games last year, a sign that he could take some production away from Smith. It’s going to be annoying, but not any more annoying than when a backup on any other NFL team scores instead of the player in your fantasy lineup. Firkser is a name to know if (God forbid) Smith misses time due to injury.
Final Thoughts
I wanted to write this offseason breakdown because I’ve been a Titans fan since 2000. So, feel free to take everything I’ve written here with a grain of salt. However, in an uncertain season, and more importantly an abnormal offseason, I continue to favor continuity when projecting fantasy success.
The Titans are running it back with their key playmakers from down the stretch in 2019: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Jonnu Smith. While this core of continuity is small, I expect these players to be the engines of the Titans offense, leading to a high concentration of fantasy points. Remember: Talent + Opportunity = Success!
