Market Watch | August 2020

Kyle Larson
-
0
Market Watch | August 2020

Market Watch is where we dive into the ever-changing ADP values of players in dynasty formats. Whether it’s an opportunity to buy low, sell high or even buy high, sharks never sleep.

📈 Bullish: These are players whose average draft position (ADP) is trending up, meaning they likely have more trade value and will be taken higher in drafts than before.

📉 Bearish: These are players whose ADP is trending down, meaning they likely have less trade value and are likely being taken later in drafts.

Note: ADP is based on FFPC Dynasty-Startup SF/2QB Classic drafts; ADP and graphs are taken from RotoViz.

Cam Newton – 📈

ADP – 77.2 – 51.2 📈

Cam Newton is an obvious bullish asset because he went from being without a team to joining forces with Bill Belichick and presumably becoming the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots. Overall, Newton should be viewed as a player with question marks. He’s had a prolific career and shown that he’s a weapon on the field in both the run and pass game. However, his injury history is an obvious concern. He could miss time coming back from a shoulder injury, or play worse due to the injured shoulder. Our Undroppables doc, Adam Hutchison, tweeted an interesting thread on Cam’s shoulder recently. Near the end of the thread, we see some examples of Cam’s throwing motion post-injury. These two videos are a worrisome sight, and I recommend the entire thread if you want more insight into Newton’s health.

Those who drafted Newton in their startups over the summer should be very happy to see him sign to a team where he gets an immediate boost in value, as he likely won’t have to spend next season as the backup. This immediate boost in value can be seen in Newton’s ADP graph.

ADP
Cam Newton ADP

 

Newton’s signing not only elevates his market, but also elevates the other members of the Patriots’ passing attack. James White’s ADP has risen 33.8 spots, while Harry and Edelman both received small boosts in ADP. If Cam is truly healthy next season, there’s a very good chance all of these four players will be steals at their current ADP. I’m totally in on Edelman, White, Harry, and even Mohamed Sanu at their current ADP because of how much upside they’ll have next season compared to others around their ADP.

You can read more about the effect of Cam Newton on his new team in our Offseason Breakdown of the New England Patriots.

Denzel Mims – 📉

ADP – 153 – 38 📉

I was surprised when I saw Mims’ ADP had fallen so much over the past few months, and I don’t think I can rationalize the fall. Mims is a rookie who posted an 85th percentile College Dominator, ran a 4.38 at the combine, and was drafted in the second round. If his ADP is falling, I definitely want to take advantage of that and get Mims on my roster. He’s got a lot of upside and the lackluster Jets receiving corps will provide him opportunity early and often.

ADP

You can read more about Mims and the rest of his young offense in our Offseason Breakdown of the New York Jets.

Austin Hooper – 📉

ADP – 120.2 – 37.4 📉

The dynasty community has continued to adjust to Hooper’s less attractive spot in Cleveland. While I agree that Atlanta is a much better tight end situation than Cleveland is, I also think that NFL Front Offices do not make someone the highest paid player at their position and not have a plan to use them. For this reason, I like Hooper’s fall in ADP as it provides a buy opportunity. He should see the third-highest target share with the Browns behind Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, and new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s offense provided 105 targets to Minnesota’s tight end group in 2019. If Hooper can get 80% of that target number, he would have been ninth in targets among tight ends last year. Personally, I think Hooper will probably see even more than that, so I’d like to take him at his TE13 ADP.

Austin Hooper ADP

You can read more about Hooper’s positive outlook in the latest entry of our Devil’s Advocate series.

James Conner – 📈

ADP – 56 – 34.6 📈

James Conner ADP

Conner’s rise can probably be attributed to him just being healthy over the offseason. Accordingly, his ADP has probably become more true to what his value should be. His new ADP makes him the RB24, which is pretty fair for a guy with the upside that Conner has even though he has significant injury history. However, according to ADP, I could pick Chris Carson, Le’Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt or David Johnson over Conner, and I would rather have those guys with their concerns over Conner’s concerns.

Deebo Samuel – 📉

ADP – 92.6 – 33 📉

Deebo Samuel put up a stellar rookie season, but he recently suffered a Jones fracture. If you want to know all about Jones fractures and how it will affect Samuel, Adam Hutchison wrote a great article on our site. While you should still read the full article, to summarize here: we should expect Samuel to miss somewhere around the first half of the season and possibly have some irritation in his foot that could affect his performance later on. One important thing to remember here is this is DYNASTY market watch, not REDRAFT market watch. Please, consider Samuel’s production and still acquire him for what you believe that production should cost. There should be very little fade for a non-career threatening injury in dynasty leagues, unless you’re dead-set on winning a championship this year and moving Samuel for a contributing piece is necessary to reach that goal.

Deebo Samuel ADP

You can read more about Deebo and the Niners in our 49ers Offseason Breakdown.

David Johnson – 📈

ADP – 69.4 – 30 📈

David Johnson is one of my favorite buys this offseason, and his stock has been rising for a while after the move to Houston. After a forgettable finish to last season, most were quick to move on. However, Johnson was the PPR RB5 from Weeks 1-6 before going down to injury. If he had kept that pace over the entire season, he would have been the PPR RB3 at the end of the year. Meanwhile, the Texans rushing game provides a lot of opportunity for both volume and efficiency. Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson combined for 328 rushes and 78 targets last season, and if Johnson can command around a 70% share of that backfield, he’ll be flirting with a 300-touch season. Clearly, talent and opportunity are both present in this situation. His finish will depend largely on his health, so I 100% recommend drafting Duke Johnson later in your drafts or trading for him, especially if you have David Johnson.

David Johnson ADP

You can read more about the trade that brought David to Houston and the rest of Houston’s free agency period in this article.

Dawson Knox – 📉

ADP – 193 – 25.8 📉

Another fall in ADP that I’m not quite sure how to explain. Knox showed some promise in his rookie season, posting a TE32 finish with a 32/388/2 line  while playing 15 games. However, it should be noted that Knox was tied for fourth in drops last year among all positions with six drops in total. If he can clean those up and handle a little more opportunity, Knox will likely have a solid fantasy season. However, his TE24 ADP being above Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron likely presents an opportunity for contenders to sell Knox for a tight end that will likely provide a better fantasy finish next season. I do love Knox as a long-term dynasty buy, and his ADP is probably a tad high for the risk that he doesn’t develop.

Dawson Knox ADP

Hayden Hurst – 📈

ADP – 105.6 – 18.8 📈

As mentioned in the Austin Hooper section, the Atlanta Falcons’ tight end is a valuable position to roster in fantasy. There’s no exception with the Falcons latest acquisition, Hayden Hurst. Hurst showed some flashes in his time with Baltimore, but after an injury before his rookie season, Mark Andrews passed him on the depth chart and Hurst was unable to get his spot back. Hurst hasn’t shown up much in box scores because of this, but while only playing 39% of snaps with the Ravens last season, he posted a 30/349/2 line. He also has a physical skill set to be desired, running a 4.67 40-yard dash at the combine, which translates to a 81st percentile Speed Score among tight ends. Now, Hurst moves on to Atlanta, where the Falcons are among the league leaders in total pass attempts in the past two seasons. Just last year, Matt Ryan provided the Falcons tight end position group with 121 targets.

Overall, it’s hard to be sure of whether Hurst has elite talent, but he should be stepping into an elite opportunity in Atlanta. For me, this new opportunity combined with his production in limited roles is enough to invest in Hurst as a top-15 tight end at least, without injury. Looking at the graph, it does look like Hurst’s ADP may be falling down a little bit, which should create a decent buy opportunity.

Hayden Hurst ADP

You can read more about Hayden Hurst and the Falcons other offseason acquisitions in our Atlanta Falcons Offseason Breakdown.

Diontae Johnson – 📈

ADP – 105.2 – 17.2 📈

Diontae Johnson’s ADP has been climbing pretty much all summer due to experts on Twitter hyping him up as the new #1 WR in Pittsburgh. They have some interesting points about how good Johnson was last year with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges as his quarterbacks, and he posted a solid line of 59/680/5, leading the Steelers in targets. This was good enough for a WR39 finish in PPR in 2019, but there is a large question mark at the quarterback position in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger should be starting this year, but Diontae Johnson and James Washington both haven’t developed much of a rapport with Roethlisberger. Also, Big Ben could hang up the cleats pretty much any time in the next few years, especially if he gets injured again.

Personally, I see the case for and the case against Diontae, and I’ve been pretty indifferent either way. However, his current ADP of WR38 is only one better than his finish last year, so the upside is probably worth it.

You can read more about Roethlisberger’s 2020 outlook in our Pittsburgh Steelers Offseason Breakdown.

T.Y. Hilton – 📈

ADP – 103.8 – 14.2 📈

Hilton is entering his age 31 season, and coming off a WR57 finish in PPR. However, Hilton only played in ten games and averaged 12.5 PPR points in games he did play, which places him as the WR34 in PPR points per game last season. Over the offseason, the Colts did upgrade their quarterback position by moving from Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers. This move is likely what’s causing most of Hilton’s move upwards in ADP. However, Hilton has a bit of an injury history as he has missed eight games in the past two seasons. Hilton should be seen as a solid WR2 or WR3 in PPR with weekly WR1 upside, but it would be surprising for Hilton to finish as a WR1 on the season again.

T.Y. Hilton ADP

Ronald Jones – 📈

ADP – 97.6 – 13.6 📈

Ronald Jones’ ADP suffered a pretty large dip after the NFL draft, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected another running back in Vanderbilt product Ke’Shawn Vaughn. However, since that fall, Jones’ value has been increasing, and he is now the 33rd running back off the board in ADP. Jones put together 1,000 yards from scrimmage in his second season in the league last year, with 724 rushing yards on 172 attempts along with 309 receiving yards on 31 receptions. This output landed Jones as the RB25 in PPR last season, while his current ADP is the RB33. Personally, I don’t think Vaughn is nearly as large a threat as most people believe he is. Bruce Arians’ offense is a challenge to learn, as many of his former players have publicly stated. Especially with this truncated offseason, Vaughn may not be ready for a large role right from the jump. I am a Ronald Jones believer, and I think he should be at least a low-end RB2 this coming season and a value at his current ADP.

ADP
Ronald Jones ADP

You can read more about Ronald Jones and the Bucs’ offseason in our Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Breakdown.

Rashaad Penny | Injury Breakdown

Adam Hutchison
-
0
Rashaad Penny | Injury Breakdown

Last week, Rashaad Penny uploaded a short workout video that showed him running through an agility ladder. Promising? No doubt. But soon social media took over, with posts questioning Penny’s readiness for the 2020 season. Familiarizing myself with the situation, I thought it would be as good a time as any to break down Penny’s injury history and forecast what his upcoming season might look like, assuming it starts on time.

Penny’s 2019 Injury

In early December of the 2019 season, Penny tore his left anterior cruciate ligament (ACL), effectively ending his season. Although any injury is unfortunate, this one was particularly saddening because it appeared that Penny was just starting to find his rhythm. Penny’s rookie season was rather underwhelming and although 2019 started the same way, Penny was able to string together a pair of impressive fantasy point totals in Weeks 12 and 13.

Penny Injury

Reshaad Penny ACL Tear. Week 14 2019

Penny’s ACL tear occurred on December 8th. Although I could not determine exactly when Penny had his ACL repaired, I can only assume that given the current medical research advocating for early intervention and the orthopedic doctors available to the Seahawks, he had it soon after his original injury.

Following his surgery, reports were optimistic that Penny would be able to start the 2020 season. The “accepted timeline” for ACL repairs these days is 9 months. However, given my clinical experience and what I have learned from studying the latest research, 9 months is a good estimate for when an athlete can return following an ACL repair (ACLR). That timeline, however, is not set in stone.

What the Research Shows

Due to their prevalence, ACL injuries are by far the most researched injury in sports medicine. There are hundreds of published articles from credible sources in the last 5 years alone. There has been research on what grafts are the best for repairs, what surgeries yield the best outcomes, what is the best way to prevent re-injury, the list goes on.

In regards to return to sport times, there was initially a push for a time based protocol, followed by studies advocating for a criteria-based protocol that would require athletes to meet specific prerequisites prior to being cleared for play. Taking all of this information into account, I personally think it’s a combination of both. You need to allow ample time for healing while making sure that there is objective data that reinforces the athlete is ready to play.

Healing Times

Research has shown that around 3 months post-surgery, the ACL graft is still immature and healing. There is evidence that by 6 months, the graft and the tunnel sites in the tibia and femur where the graft is inserted are healed. With that said, a systematic review in 2019 showed that ACL grafts experience collagen fibril alignment from 6 to 12 months, suggesting that it might take a full year before the ACL graft is fully matured [1]. Returning to play at 9 months could increase the chance of re-injury if the ACL graft is still maturing.

Return to sport

Return to sport (RTS) is likely one of the more heavily researched topics. Success stories such as Adrian Peterson returning to the NFL in less than 9 months after his ACLR are what support the narrative that these injuries are 9-month setbacks. A recent study by Beischer PT PHD et al. found that athletes who returned to sport 9 months or sooner were 7 times more likely to re-injure themselves than those who waited [2]. Additionally, research from Grindem and his colleagues reported a 50% decrease in risk to any knee injury (not ACL specific) for each month that the RTS was delayed beyond 6 months. Should the season start on time, the Seahawks’ first game would be on September 13th, 2020. This would be cutting close to that 9-month timeline. This time frame is critical, especially considering that waiting 2-3 additional months significantly reduces risk of re-injury.

Follow The Money

Keeping all of the medical information in mind, it also helps to see what the team is doing when trying to predict when a player will return to the field. Many, myself included, did not expect Seattle to do much with Chris Carson already on the roster. The Seahawks invested a fifth round pick in rookie Deejay Dallas from Miami, most likely a depth piece. Then in late May, the Seahawks added free agent running back Carlos Hyde. In my opinion, this is the most likely indicator that Penny would not be ready to start the 2020 season.

The team whose doctors have access to Penny’s medical information and an up-close look to how he is progressing in his rehabilitation elected to add another veteran running back. If that doesn’t indicate Penny is likely to start the season on the PUP list, then I don’t know what does. Seattle’s physicians are well aware of everything I listed above in regards to ACLR recovery times and injuries risks. At this point they want to protect their first round running back asset and make sure they are putting him in a good position to succeed. Extending his recovery another 2 months (a total of 11 months post-op) to make sure he is ready to return to football might be the best thing to do.

Rashaad Penny
Penny in action. (Mike Siegel / The Seattle Times)

2020 and Beyond

So what should you do with Penny in 2020? In dynasty leagues he’s a hold for me. At this point, you’re only going to get pennies on the dollar (pun intended) in a trade. I am not worried about Penny long term, so if you could acquire him for a discount, I would. Chris Carson is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent in 2021, and depending on how the season plays out, Penny could be slated as the starter without any competition in the backfield. Clearly, Seattle values Penny, and they are going to put him in the best situation to succeed.

In redraft leagues, I am not drafting Penny unless benches are deep. Even if Penny doesn’t start the season on the PUP, (and instead only misses the first few weeks of the season) it’s going to take some time for him to adjust. Following ACLRs, hamstrings are commonly neglected and as a result weaker [3]. This provides some insight on why hamstring strains are so common the year after ACLRs and can make the following seasons a bust for fantasy football purposes.

I will, however, be keeping a close eye on Penny should he find himself on the waiver wire in any of my leagues. With his versatility as a pass catcher and speed as a runner in a good offense such as Seattle, Penny certainly has league-winning upside. Not to mention, Carson has never been the epitome of health during his time in the NFL. It might take some time before Penny gets to that point, and it’s difficult to carry a player who isn’t producing on your fantasy roster, which is why I’m advocating for the “wait and see” approach.

Summary

Given all the circumstances, I believe it’s possible for Penny to recover from his ACL injury in 9 months. An expanded timeline for all players can be beneficial and decrease the likelihood of re-injury. The study I referenced above by Beischer [2] found the average RTS for athletes who did not suffer an injury following ACLR was 11 months. This data falls in line with optimal ACL graft healing times. For those reasons, it should not be viewed as a negative if Penny starts the season on the PUP. It will ensure that Seattle is allowing for more healing time to make sure that Penny’s in peak shape for a return to football. In fact, it would also be in Seattle’s best interest not to rush Penny back, since Chris Carson is set to be a free agent next season. To properly evaluate Penny and make decisions for the future, you should see what he can do when healthy and see if he is reliable once he returns.

For More information regarding Rashaad Penny or any of the Seattle Seahawks  offensive pieces, check out another article on our site called “Seattle Seahawks Offseason Breakdown” by Vivek Iyer.

References:

[1]Panos, J., Webster, K., & Hewett, T. (2020, July). Anterior cruciate ligament grafts display differential maturation patterns on magnetic resonance imaging following reconstruction: A systematic review. Retrieved July 30, 2020, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31520146

[2] Beischer, S., Gustavsson, L., Senorski, E., Karlsson, J., Thomeé, C., Samuelsson, K., & Thomeé, R. (2020, February). Young Athletes Who Return to Sport Before 9 Months After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction Have a Rate of New Injury 7 Times That of Those Who Delay Return. Retrieved July 30, 2020, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32005095

[3] Beischer, S., Gustavsson, L., Senorski, E., Karlsson, J., Thomeé, C., Samuelsson, K., & Thomeé, R. (2020, February). Young Athletes Who Return to Sport Before 9 Months After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction Have a Rate of New Injury 7 Times That of Those Who Delay Return. Retrieved July 30, 2020, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32005095

Pittsburgh Steelers Offseason Breakdown

Marc Mathyk
-
0
Pittsburgh Steelers Offseason Breakdown

Our very own Marc Mathyk, aka @Masterjune70, brings his take on the Pittsburgh Steelers offseason breakdown to the table, with a little more brevity than past breakdowns. Let us know @TheUndroppables on Twitter if you enjoy the alternate format!

Offense: An Overview

The Pittsburgh Steelers were an 8-8 team in 2019 despite having the worst offense in the entire NFL. According to Football Outsiders, they were ranked 32nd in offensive efficiency, having a -25.3% Offensive DVOA. Much of this was due to losing Ben Roethlisberger in the second game of the season and relying on not one, but two rookies to step in and steer the offensive ship. Needless to say, third round pick Mason Rudolph and undrafted free agent Devlin “Duck” Hodges were not adequate replacements. Despite their quarterback play, the Steelers almost made the playoffs because of their defense, which had the third best Defensive DVOA.

But now it’s 2020, and Big Ben is back! Many have the Steelers making the playoffs, and some even have them winning the AFC North (despite having to best the Baltimore Ravens, who were unstoppable last year.) Team aspirations aside, many expect this year’s Steelers to be an offensive juggernaut, which ultimately translates into fantasy football gold.

With Big Ben back we can now expect them to play like they did in 2018. They were the sixth most efficient offense according to DVOA. Roethlisberger made 675 attempts and threw for 5,129 yards. To put that in perspective, 675 attempts is the fourth most of all time and 5,129 passing yards is the seventh most of all time. Incredible. Pittsburgh is going to tear it up again!

Not so fast. It’s not going to happen. And here’s why.

Quarterback & Defense

In Roethlisberger’s 15 year career, he has had many prolific seasons to go along with some pedestrian ones. This isn’t because he’s been Mr. Inconsistent. It’s because of game script. Whenever a team has a top-rated defense, the offense simply does not need to work as hard or as often. It’s that simple.

Roethlisberger has averaged 37. 75 attempts per game when Pittsburgh’s defense has been outside the top ten. That translates to 604 attempts in 16 games. This occurred in 2012 to 2016, and then again in 2018 when he had those record-breaking stats. However, Roethlisberger only averaged 26.45 attempts per game when Pittsburgh had a top three defense. That translates to about 423 attempts in 16 games. This is a difference of 181 attempts. A HUGE difference.

Two years ago, Pittsburgh’s defense had the 13th best DVOA. In 2019 they were third. If anything, their defense is poised to be even better and more dominant in 2020. This is great news for Steelers’ fans, but not so good for those who roster Steelers players in fantasy.

Big Ben reading these splits.

Even last year, Pittsburgh’s bad quarterbacks only made 510 attempts. That’s an average of 30 attempts per game over 17 games. In the first two games of the season, Pittsburgh’s defense was abysmal. They gave up 61 combined points (30.5 per game average) to New England and Seattle. Consequently, Big Ben and Mason Rudolph combined for 81 pass attempts (40.5 average) during those contests. From Weeks 3-17, the Steelers defense was prolific. They gave up an average of 16.1 points even with playing against powerhouses like San Francisco, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Baltimore (twice).

On offense, Rudolph and Hodges averaged 28.6 attempts per game. They completed less than 63% of their passes and averaged less than 6.5 Yards Per Attempt. Excluding Roethlisberger’s brief 2019, he has a career completion rate well over 64% and more importantly, has a career average of 7.8 Yards Per Attempt. A team with a better defense does not need to throw the ball as often. A team with a better, more efficient quarterback also does not need to throw as often.

Wide Receiver & Tight End

During the five seasons in which Pittsburgh had a top three defense, Roethlisberger never had more than 469 attempts. But for argument’s sake, let’s give Roethlisberger the same 510 attempts in 2020. What will the distribution pie look like? JuJu Smith-Schuster is ready to regain his 2018 form. Diontae Johnson is looking to progress from his impressive rookie debut. James Washington is often mentioned as a breakout candidate. They went and invested a second round pick (49th overall) in Chase Claypool. In fact, apart from Santonio Holmes (a first-round pick in 2006), Big Ben has never had a wide receiver as highly drafted as Claypool.

Eric Ebron was another important addition to the Pittsburgh tight end room this off-season. He’ll join Vance MacDonald, who many have soured on, but had 72 targets with Roethlisberger only two seasons ago. A healthy James Conner demands targets. Jaylen Samuels is a natural pass-catching back. Plus, there’s Benny Snell and newly-acquired rookie Anthony McFarland. McFarland was drafted in the fourth round and gives the Steelers a smaller, yet more explosive option at running back.

So, 510 attempts. Where do they all go? Let’s make a prediction model and break it down:

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster – 120 targets (had 166 two years ago)
  • Diontae Johnson – 92 targets (last year’s total)
  • James Washington/Chase Claypool – 80 targets (Washington’s total last season)
  • Eric Ebron – 70 targets
  • Vance McDonald – 30 targets
  • A healthy James Conner – 70 targets
  • Other RBs – 35 targets
  • Others – 13 targets
Juju praying for more than 120 targets in 2020.

If the above distribution is the case, JuJu will improve upon his disastrous 2019 season, but will not come close to his 2018 breakout. Johnson will have a solid yet unspectacular sophomore campaign, showing zero growth. Washington will not breakout. Claypool will most likely be viewed similarly to Parris Campbell and Andy Isabella after their 2019 rookie seasons. Eric Ebron will be a low-end TE1 at best. McDonald won’t be on redraft rosters and will be dropped in dynasty. Conner would benefit the most out of any Steeler if he can remain healthy. If he doesn’t, then it will be a messy running back-by-committee.

That’s with a generous 510 attempts. Even if you disagree with the distribution, 510 is a number that evaporates very quickly. Any way you slice it, that’s your Pittsburgh Steelers offensive breakout for 2020. Unless they can replicate the offensive efficiency of the 2019 Baltimore Ravens, look for Big Ben and company to be average at best, even if the talent in Pittsburgh would say otherwise.

In reality, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a great team on both sides of the ball. Barring injuries to significant players, they should win at least 10 games, make the playoffs, and perhaps win their division. However, regarding fantasy, fade everyone on their offense including Roethlisberger.  Not because any of them are bad, but because their defense is that good.

Dallas Cowboys Offseason Breakdown

Justin Mandaro
-
0
Dallas Cowboys Offseason Breakdown

The Dallas Cowboys offseason has been one headline after another. After another 8-8 record, Jerry Jones and company FINALLY took care of business and removed the serial clapper, Jason Garrett. In comes former Super Bowl-winning head coach Mike McCarthy and several other coaching changes. The Cowboys also made sure to solidify the offense that made them one of the best in 2019. They started with Blake Jarwin, in a seemingly under-the-radar deal for the 4th-year tight end. As free agency loomed, the most significant question marks came on contract negotiations for Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper. Cooper would inevitably sign a five-year $100 million deal, and Dak would get assigned the franchise tag for $31.4 million. Outside of locking up core free agents, the Cowboys made improvements to their defense with Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, Aldon Smith, and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The 2019 offseason wasn’t all acquisitions, as several long-time Cowboys departed for other pastures. Future Hall of Fame Tight End Jason Witten and veteran Safety Jeff Heath went to Las Vegas, while Pro Bowl Center Travis Frederick announced his retirement. Each decision made, whether to the coaching staff or personnel, will have some significant impacts on the 2020 season. In this Dallas Cowboys Preview, Let’s take a look at each key player’s fantasy value in 2020.

Offense: An Overview

On paper, the Cowboys are one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. In 2019, Dallas gained nearly 1400 more yards and scored 13 more touchdowns compared to 2018. After ranking 1st in total yards by almost 400 and scoring the 5th most points in the NFL, the Cowboys remain nearly intact a year later. From a personnel perspective, the Cowboys had seven players ranked inside the top 50 at their respective positions: Dak; QB2, Zeke; RB3, Cooper; WR10, Gallup; WR23, Cobb; WR42, Witten; TE11, Jarwin; TE39. As the Cowboys went through scouting for the draft, no one in the world pegged them for targeting offense. However, the Cowboys made their attack even more potent with the selection of CeeDee Lamb with the 17th overall pick. With a new coaching staff, returning veterans, shiny new toys, and 160+ vacated targets to spread around, the Cowboys offense should reach elite levels for the 2nd time in as many years.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott has undeniable talent. But questions remain as to whether or not he can lead the Cowboys to the Super Bowl. 2019 was his best season yet with career highs in yards and touchdowns. He also saw significant bumps in his average depth of target and the average depth of completion. The biggest knock on Dak through the first four years of his career has been consistency. Against two NFC East teams (Giants and Redskins), he is 13-3 with an impressive 7.5:1 TD ratio, 254.2 yards per game, and a QB Rating over 105. However, in 48 games not against the New York and Washington, Dak has an unimpressive 56% winning percentage with 10 yards less per game and a QB rating under 95. Another negative is on Dak’s ability to continue drives. Despite the Cowboys ranking 2nd in 3rd down conversion percentage, Dak dropped nearly 7 points in completion % between 1st & 2nd downs and 3rd down. Now with Mike McCarthy, Dak should be able to fix some of the inefficiencies we saw a year ago. Dak is currently the 5th QB taken off the board in SuperFlex Startups so far this year. 

Dak warming up and instantaneously becoming a meme.

Andy Dalton

The Red Rocket didn’t take long to find a new home in 2020. Shortly after being released by Cincinnati, Dalton signed a $3 million contract with the Cowboys. If Dak chooses to sit at all or gets injured, the Cowboys don’t seem to miss a lot by having Dalton under center. Through the first four years of each QB’s career, they are nearly identical in numbers despite talent discrepancies. Through their first 48 games, Dak is 40-24 to Dalton’s 40-23-1. Dalton had 1,200 fewer yards but had more TDs, and their completion percentage was nearly identical. Dalton would be stepping into a similar situation if he gets the nod and should provide substantial value to any fantasy team.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott

A pinnacle of consistency, Ezekiel Elliott has been a top 5 fantasy running back in three of his four NFL seasons. The only season not to have reached the top 5 was in 2017 when he missed six games due to a suspension. In that year, he still finished 8th overall according to NFL.com PPR scoring. In 2019, Zeke finished as the RB3 behind, Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones. Zeke had more rushing yards and receptions than Jones and only 30 fewer rushing yards than CMC. Zeke took a hit in the TD department compared to Jones and McCaffrey. However, despite rushing for the 4th most yards in 2019, he ranked 23rd in yards per touch. Once known for his explosiveness, Elliott took a step back in this department last year as well. Compared to 2018, where he ranked 1st in breakaway runs (15 or more yards), Zeke was 9th in this category last season. We also saw a fairly decent drop off in his yards created going from 3rd in 2018 to 11th a year later. The loss of Travis Frederick could play a significant role in 2020. However, one of Zeke’s best years came with Joe Looney controlling the offensive line. Zeke is being drafted third behind McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley so far in drafts. With room to get even better, he could easily warrant RB1 status.

Tony Pollard

You aren’t going to find a ton of expectations for the backup halfback when looking at the Cowboys roster. Any time you are the guy billed to back up an uber-talent like Elliott you won’t be for much. However, when Pollard stepped on the field, he showed what he was capable of doing. Excellent addition to best-ball leagues, Pollard had the 3rd-most rushing yards per carry among runners with at least 75 attempts (5.29). He also added 15 catches for 107 yards and a score. Pollard’s speed and quickness are a significant change of pace for Zeke’s patience and agility. With it, the Cowboys can rely on someone to take some of the workload off Elliott. Despite Pollard’s limited action, he was 8th in Yards per Touch, 9th in breakaway run %, and 5th in yards created per touch. Pollard had two games of over 100 yards and a touchdown, making him an excellent stash in dynasty and best-ball leagues. And for those looking to handcuff the 3rd overall pick in redrafts, Pollard is a must-have. According to FFPC ADP, Pollard is the 128th player off the board in recent drafts. 

Wide Receivers

Amari Cooper

Cooper is the #1 WR the Cowboys have been looking for ever since Dez Bryant. After successful seasons in Oakland, the Cowboys traded their 2019 first-round pick for the former Alabama receiver. Since stepping on the field, Cooper has been the go-to-guy in the Dallas offense. Turning around a once-dormant attack into one of the leagues best. Cooper finished 2019 with 79 receptions (15th), 1,189 yards (7th), and eight touchdowns (T-4th). Cooper was also very efficient when on the field. Of players with at least 100 targets, he was 9th in average depth of target, 3rd in yards per target, and 7th in yards per reception. What’s even more impressive is that he did all of this with one of the league’s worst cushion rates (3.79 yards; 77th). However, despite seeing tighter coverage, Cooper generated nearly 2 yards of separation per target on average. Which ranked 38th in the league. Although he finished as WR10 a year ago, he is currently being drafted as WR13. With other targets to go around, and an offense known for its efficiency through the air, Cooper could easily beat his ADP.

Cooper celebrating a Touchdown.

Michael Gallup

Gallup had the opposite of a sophomore slump, exploding onto the scene in 2019. After a pedestrian rookie season, Gallup proved he was worth the hype coming into the league. The former Colorado St wide out produced 2x more receptions and yards and 3x more touchdowns in 2019 than the year prior. The increase in opportunity had massive effects on the 2nd year pass catcher, jumping 54 spots from WR77 to WR23. Gallup was impressive last year, finishing 12th in yards per target despite being 28th in average target distance. Despite scoring 212.7 PPR fantasy points, Gallup led the league in dropped passes with 11. Gallup is a steal right now in the 7th round with WR33 ADP so far this offseason.

CeeDee Lamb

The surprise pick of the draft, Cedarian Lamb, is the perfect piece for this Cowboys offense. CeeDee Lamb is an absolute stud after being one of the Biletnikoff Finalists a year ago. At 6’2″, 185 lbs, Lamb is a motor that just won’t quit. In his last two years, he averaged 3.42 yards per route run and 9.2 yards after the catch (per reception) while forcing 38 missed tackles. When targeted, OU QBs had a near-perfect passer rating at 146.5. Lamb is an ideal addition to the Cowboys offense that should see a reasonably significant uptick in 3 and 4 WR sets. From 2016 through Week 13 of 2018, Mike McCarthy-led attacks ran 76% of their formations in 3, 4 & 5 WR sets. The Cowboys also lost more than 160 targets with the departures of Jason Witten and Randall Cobb. With a definite increase in opportunity and a significant target gap to fill, Lamb should CRUSH his current 106 ADP. #BOOMER

Tight Ends

Blake Jarwin

Blake Jarwin was one of the most efficient tight ends in football in 2019. He was an excellent pass blocker, and ranked top 10 in yards per reception, yards per route run, and catch rate. Despite being so efficient, he failed to produce as the number of opportunities didn’t come his way. With Jason Witten making a return in 2019, Jarwin only saw 43 targets, which he turned into 365 yards and three touchdowns. With the new regime, the loss of Witten, and other opportunities sure to be available in the Cowboys offense, we should finally see the Jarwin star shine bright. The one area we need to keep an eye on will be his ability to run block. Despite being one of the league’s best pass blockers by PFF ranking (18th), Jarwin was nearly terrible in run blocking. However, where Blake failed, Dalton Schultz excelled, ranking as the 8th best run-blocking TE, according to PFF. If Jarwin can’t figure out his blocking woes, he may miss some time and give Schultz more opportunity. 

Make sure to check out all of The Undroppables content at Cantcutlist.com

New England Patriots Offseason Breakdown

Kayne Rob
-
0
New England Patriots Offseason Breakdown

The greatest NFL dynasty we may have ever seen took a big hit this offseason. The Patriots lost their leader at the helm (at least on the field) when six-time Super Bowl winning QB Tom Brady departed the New England area for Tampa, Florida. Now Head Coach Bill Belichick will be truly tested on putting together a winner without his quarterback who is referred to as the greatest of all time by many. Yet Brady wasn’t the only loss on the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots also lost Phillip Dorsett, James Develin, and  some pieces on the offensive line, including their starting center Ted Karras, who left for South Beach with Belichick protege Brian Flores. All of that being said, Robert Kraft didn’t leave Belichick high and dry. The Patriots brought in former MVP Cam Newton on a risk-free deal, as well as drafting two tight ends in the 3rd round of the 2020 draft. With no major additions to the Patriots skill positions and an extremely shortened offseason with a new QB at the helm, I find it hard to believe that the Patriots can actually compete for another world championship in 2020.

Offense: An Overview

With the wide receiver room staying relatively untouched, the Patriots will need major strides from guys like N’Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers, and Mohammed Sanu entering their second year within the system. Hopefully having a healthy Cam Newton (who adds mobility the Patriots haven’t seen at the QB position in 20 years) will open up a whole new world in McDaniels’ offensive playbook. That being said, the Patriots system is known for taking multiple years to perfect, and Newton has only signed a one-year deal, which leads us to ask: will Stidham get playing time? Will the Patriots sign Newton to a longer deal if he stays healthy? How will Patriots players fare in fantasy in the year 2020? My thoughts on the latter below!

Quarterback

Cam Newton

Newton brings a rushing element to the Patriots they haven’t had at QB in the last 20 years. That alone may allow him to be a value in redraft formats, but the shortened offseason may put a delay on claiming the job for Week 1. Also, as our Undroppables in-house doc, Adam Hutchison has pointed out, the shoulder could still be a concern later on in the season barring the number of pass attempts and is something to keep an eye on (Twitter thread below). Overall, Newton could provide high upside with his rushing ability in the red-zone within this new system, but there is a lot of risk baked in as well. For redraft, I think he is a great streaming option once we have seen him integrated into the system. On the dynasty side of things he may be a good cheap buy if Stidham does indeed start the season, but be aware that the risks he holds could see him out of fantasy relevance as well after 2020, so don’t overpay.

Jarrett Stidham

Jarrett Stidham could very well be the future of this Patriots organization long term, but seeing as they brought in Cam Newton, I wouldn’t be so quick to dub him the next generation quite yet. The 2019 4th round selection from Auburn showed flashes of brilliance during the preseason, but his time was nearly non-existent during the season thanks to Tom Brady. Although Stidham is a solid handcuff in dynasty and superflex leagues, I do not anticipate he will start the lion’s share of games in 2020. Due to the shortened offseason, I do think it’s likely he will be the starter Week 1 as Newton gets more familiar with the system. If you currently have him on your roster, maybe hold to see his production early. From that point you may be able to  trade for higher value upon any big moments early in the season or hold for longevity.

Patriots
New England QB Jarrett Stidham (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Brian Hoyer

Brian Hoyer is nothing more than a cheaper insurance policy for this Patriots team. At age 34, Hoyer has only ever started more than 10 games in 1 of his 11 years playing professionally. Hoyer knows the system having played for the Patriots in 2017 & 2018. I wouldn’t expect any fantasy relevance from the #3 QB on the team.

Running Back

Sony Michel

Sony Michel is one running back that is extremely difficult to predict for fantasy purposes. Michel saw the 9th most carries of all running backs in the league and 10th best red zone opportunities, but it didn’t generate much success on the field. Michel had 6 weeks within the top 24 with two finishes being as an RB1 (Weeks 5 & 7). The positives for Michel end there. Michel was 12th among running backs in drops, likely pushing him further away from any pass game relevancy. Furthermore, Michel scored 7 TDs but 3 of these came from one single game. Most of his contributions were minimal outside of that game. Michel also had a very average 3.6 true yards per carry, which could use improvement. Now add in the fact that Belichick has had a tendency to use a committee approach, and Sony’s late-round ADP becomes no surprise. If your running back position is looking sparse in redraft or startup, then feel free to take a shot and hope for the best. I expect James White to continue to have the most relevance on the field and Damien Harris could eat into some of Michel’s snaps if his efficiency continues to be poor. In dynasty, he is not a player I would go out of my way to trade for as his price isn’t easy to determine and isn’t worth giving much up for. 

James White

White continues to be a solid flex option in PPR formats of fantasy football. In 2019 White saw the 6th most targets, 6th most receptions, and 3rd most receiving yards among running backs. This trend will likely continue in 2020 even with the departure of Tom Brady. Brady has been known to check it down to the running back in recent years, giving White heavy value. Cam Newton has been known to do this same thing as well. If Stidham ends up winning the starting quarterback job, he is also likely to use the running back in the pass game as well, being a less developed passer with no starting experience. No matter what, White is still an efficient flex play within McDaniels’ system. In redraft he is a great depth piece and likely the back to own from New England. In dynasty formats I would likely look to trade him to a contender for some draft capital, as he wont help a middling or rebuilding team much at all. That paired with his age make this the time to send him to a contender if possible. If you are still playing in a format where there is no PPR scoring at all, then don’t bother adding White to your roster.

Rex Burkhead

Burkhead is a name in fantasy that should fade into oblivion in the near future, so I wouldn’t use a roster spot on this aging veteran. Burkhead put up 4 games in the top 24 last year with 2 of the 4 coming in Weeks 15 & 16 solely from red-zone work. Burkhead only saw more than 30% of snaps in 4 total games and also missed some time with an injury for the 4th year in a row. All of this to say, Burkhead is not worth the risk and will likely never make it into your lineup or even consideration set, so don’t waste the spot.

Damien Harris

Harris only saw a total of 4 carries during his rookie year, but that could improve during the 2020 season. Due to the current QB battle, Burkhead’s restructured contract, and Sony’s lack of efficiency, I fully expect Harris to get more opportunities on the field. The production he puts forth will likely determine if the looks continue. Harris is the one RB I would take a shot on outside of White in this offense. He is a cheap grab in all formats and is a relatively risk-free lottery ticket if he does make the most of his opportunities. Harris managed to hold off and outproduce Josh Jacobs in all 3 of their years together at Alabama. With another year in the Belichick system, I fully expect this former college stud to see more opportunity. See if you can buy him cheap in dynasty and grab him as one of your last picks in redraft. Low risk for a potential high reward.

Wide Receiver

Julian Edelman

Julian Edelman’s production is likely to fall with Tom Brady leaving town. Therefore, his upside is likely capped, but he could still prove to be a valuable PPR flex play no matter who wins the job at QB. Edelman is a solid slot receiver who is likely still the # 1 WR in New England. In 2019, Edelman was 3rd in targets, 4th in receptions, 5th in red zone receptions and 18th in yards after catch among all wide receivers. This shows me he still has the opportunity, but these numbers were likely due to Brady’s trust as well. I anticipate some regression, but he will remain a great flex play on contending teams and in redraft formats. The main cause for concern here is that Edelman was 6th among all wide receivers in drops for each of the past two seasons. That was with the 13th most “catchable targets” within the league. Those catchable targets are likely to fall no matter who wins the QB job, so I would definitely prepare for some regression with this veteran wide out.

N’Keal Harry

N’Keal Harry may hold the most upside on this entire roster in dynasty formats. Belichick has preached his high hopes for the young prospect, whom Bill made as his first wide receiver selected in Round 1 of the NFL Draft during his entire tenure with the Patriots. Harry started his rookie season hampered by injuries, but saw some success in his limited action toward the end of the year by scoring 2 TDs. His current ADP in dynasty formats as of July is WR43, which is fairly cheap for a 1st round rookie heading into his second season. His best comparable receiver on PlayerProfiler.com based on metrics is Allen Robinson, who also had a slower start as a rookie but broke out in year 2. If you can get him for a fair price I would definitely take the risk, because the Patriots clearly have plans for him as a key building piece of the offense. Furthermore, Harry is known for his ability to do well in contested catch scenarios, which pairs well with his predicted new quarterback Cam Newton, especially in the red zone. 2020 and 2021 will likely be key years for Harry. I like him as a prospect and trust in what Belichick sees. For redraft formats he falls even lower in ADP, so feel free to take a shot late hoping for the second-year breakout.

N’Keal Harry 2019 Patriots Practice (The Boston Globe/Globe Staff)

Mohamed Sanu

The value Sanu brings to the Patriots wide receiver room is much greater than the one he will bring to your fantasy roster. Sanu is a great veteran presence but this offense is not as pass happy as the one he had in Atlanta where he was a flex play at best. I anticipate that Sanu will serve as the #2 or #3 WR of this New England offense, which won’t do a lot for your fantasy team. Sanu has finished well outside of the top 24 in most wide receiver categories each of the past two seasons, and I don’t expect him to get any better for fantasy purposes. I would avoid in both redraft and dynasty as there are much better options with higher upside.

Marqise Lee

The oft-injured Marqise Lee has signed in New England but is likely to still be on the roster bubble. With no preseason to help his case, I wouldn’t invest in this player at all since he would likely be the fifth or sixth wide receiver on the roster in the first place. Avoid in all formats.

Jakobi Meyers

Meyers is an interesting stash in dynasty leagues in the case that Stidham ends up winning the job. Stidham and Jakobi showed great chemistry during the preseason in 2019 which led to Meyers posting 20 receptions for 253 yards and 2 TDs. This preseason showing led to Meyers earning some actual work during the regular season, but Jakobi didn’t have that same trust and chemistry with Brady as he had shown with Stidham. The 2019 undrafted free agent did manage to see the field in 11 games and post 26 receptions. Jakobi isn’t a redraft play by any means, but could be a solid dynasty hold in the case Stidham does win the job due to their chemistry on the field.

Tight End

Matt LaCosse

LaCosse will not be a major player for the New England Patriots. In 2019 he was made the #2 TE rather quickly for the unretired Ben Watson who outproduced LaCosse in fewer games. Both tight ends combined only saw a total of 43 targets all season. I wouldn’t use a pick on LaCosse in any format.

Devin Asiasi

The first of two tight ends New England selected in the 3rd round, Asiasi is nothing more than a dynasty or taxi stash in fantasy football. Of the two prospects, I believe Asiasi shows more natural ability in the pass game and has the upside after seeing his production with UCLA in the 2019 season. UCLA actually wanted Asiasi to return in 2020 with plans to incorporate him more. With no preseason in 2020, the young tight ends’ roles and snap percentages will be something to monitor in 2020 to help determine which holds more value and opportunity as this offense starts to rebuild.

Dalton Keene

The second of two tight ends New England selected in the 3rd round, Keene was selected 10 picks later. He is solely a taxi stash in dynasty leagues. Again, with no preseason in 2020, the young tight ends’ roles and snaps will be something to monitor in 2020 to help determine which rookie holds more value.

Final Thoughts

The 2020 Patriots team is not one I would want to be starting a lot of players from. With the complexity of the playbook, I expect both Newton & Stidham to play and have their ups and downs. Belichick is nearly always unpredictable with his running back committees. Outside of Edelman, the pass catchers are fairly new and I don’t expect major production. This Patriots roster may have some valuable dynasty stashes, but don’t expect much certain redraft value in New England besides some late round fliers. Belichick’s team will remain defensively led, so they may compete in the NFL, but probably not so much in fantasy.

1...116117118...131Page 117 of 131

The Undroppables

Partners

Underdog Fantasy

Fantasy Football Chat

Sleeper

PrizePicks

Pharaoh Analytics

Analyst Depot

TrophySmack

Rival Fantasy

Connect

© The Undroppables 2021